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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On January 21 2010 10:55 Fulgrim wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 10:48 QuickStriker wrote:I just took a look at the other mafia game and their last post seems reasonable. I'm pretty sure it can happen here and can be the same case so I'll just quote it away: On January 21 2010 10:45 citi.zen wrote:
Let me throw this out there: we all agree an elected position benefits the mob, if they can get it. Also, the mob is organized and know each other, so they are likely to pre-determine who will run from their camp.
So my conjecture is this: one and only one of the candidates is a mobster. If we take this last post as true, and the mafia is well organized, then we can assume that the mafia candidate is probably not xelin or man.magic, seeing as they have 0 votes and haven't seemed to post alot.
Ridiculous, what if every single mafia member ran for election, and they all agreed to throw support behind the mafia that had managed to get the most votes. If every mafia member ran for election, than surely the chance of a mafia getting elected would be higher, no?
Again, it's pointless to posit these 'what if?!' ideas because they're usually wrong, and when they're right, they're still useless, because nobody has any way of really knowing that anyway.
Stick to facts and not 'Well if I were mafia, I'd put poison in the wine glass closest to me because you'd suspect something and switch the glasses...." kind of deductions.
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lol when i was typing the last post i made, Fulgrims post where he quoted quickstriker was the last one.
Kinda funny that we have so much inactivity and then suddenly an avalanche of posts xD
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sorry i havent been active much, first time playing and i dont really know how to respond heh
just so clear things up, DT stands for detective right?
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On January 21 2010 10:59 XeliN wrote:
As to the post above, I personally believe that the Mafia will not have planned to simply put one person forward, It would be extremely risky, and an exceptional gamble to do so. I am leaning more towards a "swamp" strategy wereby the mafia would but 3 or possibly more candidtaes forward in the hope that either way they get someone elected.
Unless you can provide a better argument as to why the Mafia would only put one person forward for election I am inclined to think they are far more likely to put many people forward to be elected.
I do like to question your methods and reasons toward either voting/lynching me or that other guy off. In such an early stage of the game to now, you have admitted that I am possible to be mafia. The clues given by "no_re" is possible yet cannot be found 100% accurate. So my question is this, what will you do or rather, what will do you think will happen if you voted me (or the other guy) off, and I ended up not as mafia??
I will give my suggestion and answer to regards of this question after I hear yours.
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On January 21 2010 11:02 johnnyspazz wrote:
sorry i havent been active much, first time playing and i dont really know how to respond heh
just so clear things up, DT stands for detective right?
Yes
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Yeah it does Johnny, at least i took it to mean that from earlier posts and so decided to steal it  I quite like reading "DT" alot as they have served me quite well in PvT's for ages ^^
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That is an interesting question Quickstriker, The reasons i consider you suspicious are mainly due to the nature of your posting, although i certianly think the "Quick attack" potential clue that no_re highlighted oh so long ago is both plausible and telling.
In that hypothesis i feel i would have achieved something as it would lend itself very well to helping me evaluate other players who would be inextricably linked (in my mind) with the outcome if you turned out to be non-mafia. I do however feel out of everyone so far that you are the most obviously Mafia and if I am wrong i would have to do alot of inner thinking and possibly some meditation.
It's nothing personal btw so please don't take it as such this is just honestly my opinion on the matter as of this moment.
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Ah of course, I didn't listed your option number 4 cause it's the basic option after each post.
Each post could be written by a mafia member to try to deceive others, it's like, the basic of a mafia post.
I understand that I am over analising, but since it's the begining of the gale and we have no clues, I think I should say what i was thinking about this post in particular; wich was, in my opinion, very particular. I have just never saw a post in this thread so full of blind thrust.
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Dark Templar = Detective imo
So our current situation (thanks to Quickstriker for the list)
Fulgrim - 2
d3_crescentia - 1
QuickStriker - 1
tree.hugger - 1
Xelin - 0
Man.magic - 0
Abstain votes: 1
Total Votes so far: 6
6 candidates, but only 6 votes so far. I think that we can assume great changes in the list as more people start reading the thread + when the mafia decide who to vote for. We need 28 more votes in 24 more hours. I think the only way to mitigate some of the damage caused by a mafia member getting elected is to pick people who will be open with the townsfolk about what and why they are doing things. (also being a puppet of the town would be nice) Although a mafia member could promise this and then do something completely different when getting elected, so I guess there is nothing we can do to ensure a 100% mafia free gov.
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On January 21 2010 11:14 Iaaan wrote:
you forgot me to ):
UPDATED LIST WITH MORE IAAAN
Fulgrim - 2
d3_crescentia - 1
QuickStriker - 1
tree.hugger - 1
Xelin - 0
Man.magic - 0
Iaaan - 0
Abstain votes: 1
Total Votes so far: 6
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On January 21 2010 11:10 XeliN wrote:
That is an interesting question Quickstriker, The reasons i consider you suspicious are mainly due to the nature of your posting, although i certianly think the "Quick attack" potential clue that no_re highlighted oh so long ago is both plausible and telling.
In that hypothesis i feel i would have achieved something as it would lend itself very well to helping me evaluate other players who would be inextricably linked (in my mind) with the outcome if you turned out to be non-mafia. I do however feel out of everyone so far that you are the most obviously Mafia and if I am wrong i would have to do alot of inner thinking and possibly some meditation.
It's nothing personal btw so please don't take it as such this is just honestly my opinion on the matter as of this moment.
Alright, thanks your answer. Now allow me to share some input on some of the possibility of the aftermath if your hypothesis tend to be false. (Also, this is in no way to be offensive, however as my personality and character calls for it, I feel the need to self-assert myself with possibilities and reasons of my own. I did not do this in the past which caused the errors of my ways.)
Now my answer is, should the case where you happen to lynch the wrong person and get someone who is a non-mafia, a simple townie or worse, an important character among the townie, a high possibility can happen. People will start to doubt you, the townies will question your methods, there will be a share chance that you might be next to be lynched/voted out. Now, if you are the mafia and this was intentional (since mafia knows who other maifas are and this can be a grand scheme), it is a very unwise decision to pull in such a way. Because you got it wrong, and even with fellow mafias around you, the chances of survival can be lower than before the incident.
Now, if you aren't the mafia and you have voted incorrectly, there is still the greater cause of trouble, far more so than being the mafia itself. Not only the innocent regular townies will doubt you, but the maifas will support the townies, blend in, and support from mafia will come to go against you. A common cause will happen, the mafia using this confusion, taking to this advantage and try to get rid of you using the day vote power rather than their regular killing power at night, because it's easier to kill during day due to having to kill bodyguards first than mayor for nighttime. That is my simplified answer.
Finally, I like to note this to everyone, especially mafias out there of what I have just done. By stating exactly of the possibility of these events even when I'm voted out, the chances of this happening is still possible. However, hopefully by announcing the actual possible scheme to come, I have lower or reduced the chances of this happening at least by a tiny bit because I already laid out the whole possible plan ahead of the mafia. Which means the mafia have to find another method or smarten themselves up in order to get rid of the mayor. Have that for food for thought mafia!
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^so yeah, watch out for Mafia members ganging up on another Mafia member in order to throw suspicion off themselves o:
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And just as a side note, if any of you haven't seen Day[9] Daily #50, you should go watch it ;p
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+ Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 11:22 QuickStriker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 11:10 XeliN wrote:
That is an interesting question Quickstriker, The reasons i consider you suspicious are mainly due to the nature of your posting, although i certianly think the "Quick attack" potential clue that no_re highlighted oh so long ago is both plausible and telling.
In that hypothesis i feel i would have achieved something as it would lend itself very well to helping me evaluate other players who would be inextricably linked (in my mind) with the outcome if you turned out to be non-mafia. I do however feel out of everyone so far that you are the most obviously Mafia and if I am wrong i would have to do alot of inner thinking and possibly some meditation.
It's nothing personal btw so please don't take it as such this is just honestly my opinion on the matter as of this moment. Alright, thanks your answer. Now allow me to share some input on some of the possibility of the aftermath if your hypothesis tend to be false. (Also, this is in no way to be offensive, however as my personality and character calls for it, I feel the need to self-assert myself with possibilities and reasons of my own. I did not do this in the past which caused the errors of my ways.) Now my answer is, should the case where you happen to lynch the wrong person and get someone who is a non-mafia, a simple townie or worse, an important character among the townie, a high possibility can happen. People will start to doubt you, the townies will question your methods, there will be a share chance that you might be next to be lynched/voted out. Now, if you are the mafia and this was intentional (since mafia knows who other maifas are and this can be a grand scheme), it is a very unwise decision to pull in such a way. Because you got it wrong, and even with fellow mafias around you, the chances of survival can be lower than before the incident. Now, if you aren't the mafia and you have voted incorrectly, there is still the greater cause of trouble, far more so than being the mafia itself. Not only the innocent regular townies will doubt you, but the maifas will support the townies, blend in, and support from mafia will come to go against you. A common cause will happen, the mafia using this confusion, taking to this advantage and try to get rid of you using the day vote power rather than their regular killing power at night, because it's easier to kill during day due to having to kill bodyguards first than mayor for nighttime. That is my simplified answer. Finally, I like to note this to everyone, especially mafias out there of what I have just done. By stating exactly of the possibility of these events even when I'm voted out, the chances of this happening is still possible. However, hopefully by announcing the actual possible scheme to come, I have lower or reduced the chances of this happening at least by a tiny bit because I already laid out the whole possible plan ahead of the mafia. Which means the mafia have to find another method or smarten themselves up in order to get rid of the mayor. Have that for food for thought mafia!
Omg this is the same as the previous posts, and its blowing my mind... EITHER
A. Quick is mafia
B. Xelin is mafia
C. Quick and Xelin are mafia
D. Quick and Xelin are not mafia
E. Iaaan is mafia for suggesting everyone watch day9 50
I think we need some new discussion so we can stop fighting among ourselves (or fighting with mafia...) I have a question, when a DT rolechecks someone do they get to see their EXACT ROLE, eg. medic, or just there color eg. blue.
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I think that friggen IplayThings is the Godfather. I mean just look at him, laughing at all our discussion while he lays low.
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Nice to get some more activity in our provincial town 
I will be abstaining from voting for now but will do so when i wake up tomorrow, I now have a better idea of who to go for.
However, despite all the possible clues so far we have discussed I must say I have a gut feeling that XeliN might in fact be the red scum going for mayor/sheriff :
1) On January 20 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote:
Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles.
You are called out by a certain member whose name now escapes me, and you ignore this but go off on a tangent. Given that you have made your claim to mayordom about a dozen of posts ago it seems weird you bring this up now.
2) If you look at his posts you will notice a certain tendency. He basically commentates a lot: i.e. he likes to state things which are obvious. To me this seems like some attempt to subtly gain credibility by not saying anything too provocative but still going with the trend a lot, since by saying obvious things no one can disagree with him and hence when people read the posts they will be subconsciously be lead to believe he is credible and trustworthy. Even if he is not red this still is not good since we all can read for ourselves and he is not adding any analytical value so far.
3) His last point, does not respond to an accusation from another poster but simply explains his campaign. What strikes me is that he is the only candidate who is speaking in definite terms i.e.
[QUOTE]On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote:
My candidacy for Mayor.
I strongly believe that some of the Mafia have already given themselves away at a very early stage in this and as such know preciciely what I plan on doing were i to be elected into either of the roles. This is subject to change and reconsideration but let me be frank, I would vote to lynch, kill or incarcerate Quickstriker and or crescentia. There are others that I have suspicions about but nothing as strong as my feeling that both of these posters (Most specifically Quickstriker) are being manipulative and acting in a fashion that i would expect the Mafia to act.
Now why would he write this when it is clear that he has a very small chance of actually being correct, and he knows it? I think it is because he wants to further add some false credibility to himself (further putting emphasis on point 2).
4) He claims that he will be a top priority for the mafia and we should protect him because of the "openess" of his posts. Well this makes no sense at all, because a) So far he has not said anything significant (still keeping his master plan under wraps) and b) the mafia would be silly to kill him, since that actually gives us MORE information than letting him live.
5) [QUOTE]On January 21 2010 10:53 XeliN wrote:
I am also slightly drunk as i was playing HoN with a friend on skype and drinking abit so i probably ought to wait untill putting forward a post like this but what did waiting ever acheieve!
[/QUOTE]
This paragraph makes me very suspicious. Firstly why bring up that you have been drinking at all? The most likely reason is that he can use that as an additional tool, to make people not read too much into his post. Again it seems he is trying to say obvious and genuine things to win our trust. Secondly and more worryingly look at the grammar of the quoted paragraph. Note that before the paragraph about the drinking, he has only committed 2 spelling mistakes in 350 words; yet in a single 37 word paragraph commits 3 spelling mistakes. I believe these are intentional and he is artificially supporting his drunken claim.
6) He keeps repeating that people who disagree with him are welcome to an open debate. Well this again is obvious. Anything posted here is obviously open for debate, and the fact that he keeps telling us this, coupled with the fact that he hasn't been called out so far again furthers his aim to gain our trust. Note how he has been far busier in making these types of posts rather than actually trying to analyze for clues.
7) In the last paragraph of his post he does what ? You guessed it, going for the "friend available" routine, which again serves to further the aforementioned goals.
I do not think so many repetitions and emphasis placement on one concept is random. He seems to spend too much time on strategies to further his own aims rather than the towns'.
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On January 20 2010 20:51 RoyW wrote:
Based on his contribution so far, I'm going to second XeliN in his bid for nomination. It's important that we have someone active in the thread as mayor or sherrif, and also good to have someone providing reasoning behind thier decisions, whether they be good or bad.
This also seems suspicious to me because RoyW is already supporting Xelin even though Xelin only posted like four times before this RoyW made this comment.
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Now I do not have yet to hear his counter response to what I have last posted before dinner. Now that I was able to finish and wrap up dinner, I will continue my conversation. The posters above me are making another good point toward Xelin. By all means I am not stating Xelin is mafia because I just don't know yet. However, the two people above me have pointed out far better clues than I was trying to prove by hearing his response previously. So I'm not going to repeat what others say but I do agree with above posters that it is a little suspicious.
Lastly, for everyone's reference, I have updated the voting list as of yet:
On January 21 2010 12:01 QuickStriker wrote:
Updated list of candidates and votes:
Fulgrim - 2
d3_crescentia - 1
laaan - 1
QuickStriker - 1
tree.hugger - 1
Man.magic - 0
Xelin - 0
Abstain votes: 4 (I also abstain my vote until tomorrow to make my final decision)
Total Votes so far: 10
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EPT
