EPTTL Mafia XV - Page 32
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 03:26 Ace wrote: I'm gonna read both your posts after I finish watching this anime porn Saying that implies that you've already read them. No need to say that at all, you could just reply when done. I don't understand this placeholder post. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On October 25 2009 03:16 L wrote: First off: the vet might not claim because if there are 2 vets in the game, both of them die and we're basically fast forwarded to day 4 with no kills. This isn't a 'small' concern. Its a huge hole in the plan. If we gamble and come up short, we're in big trouble. Second: The flip side to that is if both bodyguards are non-replacements, telling 2 additional people raises the chances that mafia learns about the bodyguards by 50%. If you're mafia, that's perfect, because you can eliminate the bodyguards, try to say one of the other information holders was the leak and then demand medic protection like you... already did. That essentially frees you up to kill whatever other office holder there is while claiming medic protection while getting the town to waste a lynch. Oh but wait, there's more. If you go through with doing so and drop a pardon onto whomever you decided to pin as the leak, now we're back 3 days, since we just wasted a day on the pardoned hit, the next day would be your death, and the day after that chances are we'd be forced to kill the pardoned person who might very well be innocent. 3 days is 6 mafia hits, putting us to a 7-1 trade for the play; not bad at all. If we're dumb and decide to hit the pardoned player before you, you might even get away scott free as you point towards the innocent corpse and state that you were trying to help town. Out of everyone in the town, telling you, or you telling pyrr when you get information is the worst possible idea; Neither of you can be DT checked when they confirm their sanity state, and neither of you can be mad hattered or vig'd once exposed. I hate to always be the negative nancy, but I'd rather not have us assume a bunch of information we don't have, then essentially get raped before even being able to play the game because of it. It has to be between myself, Pyrr and a third party. Remember Pyrr already knows. If he doesn't let the info out he is at risk of dying tonight if he's innocent and then no one would know who the original bodyguards were. So to avoid that we give myself the info also. They can't kill us both in one night so the information wouldn't be lost because they'd have to assume a medic would protect one of us if they are even half competently reading this thread. So now we move on to the next scenario - what if at least one of us between myself and Pyrr are Mafia or the medics don't prot either of us? They could sub the bodyguards out, kill the other guy and the only person that holds the information is the Mafia. So we need a third person to also have the information - chances are there's no way the Mafia can kill 2 out of 3 innocents in that circle. The DTs will use their check on the player that the information goes to so that in the event he is killed it works out like the Vet plan would have. You even said you aren't supporting the Vet idea too hard and I myself said I'd rather go this route. Doing it this way covers any holes. If myself or Pyrr are Mafia and Pyrr happened to give his list to a Mafia cohort AND I died they'd still be in a hole since the 3rd party is publicly known. @shikyo: L and I get along just fine. We just don't agree on much except that certain people should never be listened to. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
he is at risk of dying tonight Which is why he tells an undisclosed person. if the mafia can hit him tonight, two of them die and they lose. ONLY in the 20% chance that pyrr tells a mafia member AND both members have been subbed in AND they assume no one else has been told can they act. Even then, for that huge gamble, they gain relatively little; you and pyrr die. The reverse situation, which is far more likely, is that you and pyrr are already protected and are now sopping up medic protections, and disclosing information gives mafia a nearly 50% chance of knowing who the bgs are. Mafia don't need to try to go balls in after they know this. In fact you know this, as we had that game wherein there was the fluke bg rape which got you and ver killed. 1 bg tonight. The other whenever. Doesn't even need to look like it came from a leak if they can push people into saying the right things. More likely, they'll just take the bg list and go "k, those guys aren't DTs or medics" and go find more important people to kill. I mean, seriously, unless you're DT for the seventh game in a row this is a terrible idea. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
Nowhere am I seeing a reason why I should pass the info on to Ace specifically, it seems any 2 people would give us the ability to keep the info alive. Of course if I pass on to even 1 mafia, I could be dead along with the other innocent so maybe I should pass it on? Let's put this in perspective: None of our plans require a protected office holder - the vet plan and DT plans are independent of Ace and I. Neither of us have claimed DT or medic or anything. So if both BGs are red and Ace and I get killed and the names of the BGs die we are just back to having the same two people dead and having to find reds based on behavior. So if we hold on to the info we just lose a potential gain, and just lose a good player + me. Which is bad but giving the info to a mafia helps them bluesnipe by taking two potential names off the list. Even if the mafia know the BGs would they really want to kill them? I dunno. One thing I saw: If Ace is red, he couldn't really kill me and stay alive cuz the odds of the third party being mafia are low although if the 3rd part was and both bgs were red and ace was green that could be a train wreck. Dunno where I'm going with that but the next paragraph is the one that will actually have a point to it. Passing the info on helps town only if both bgs are red. If one bg is green then passing it on only increases the risk the reds get the other name. If both bgs are green then we'd want no one knowing, not even me, because passing it on just increases the risk the mafia can zero in on blues easier or kill leaders to spread havoc or... there was one other thing they could do with it but it just fell out of my brain. Well another important point I need to say at some point is to remind you that town can kill ace or I at any time, the mafia are just deprived the strategic option of killing us unless they know the names of BGs so again there is only the potential benefit lost of having two red names and then losing them (but they would be unlikely to hand us those names in the first place, see next paragraph). Now here is why I think that the BGs are actually probably both (or maybe 1) green. I would say double red is the least likely. If the mafia had known my thinking they would probably would have gone double red to but I don't think they thought this deep (TL Mafia is usually made up of level 1/2 moves I don't see many crazy plans because they are too risky and usually blow up if they ever do get played). This is a brand new and weird mechanic. I think the mafia would look at it and not be sure what to do with it and decide to play a normal game rather than hand over a list of two people with two reds on it to an innocent player. Sorry if that was awfully jumbled the sleep deprivation is finally getting to me but hopefully I will be on adderall soon so I can focus on things again lol. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
I really don't know though, all the choices and possibilities are making my head ache. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
They can't just sub 1 BG - it's all or nothing. If they only sub 1 then there's no point as they can't kill either of us. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
If both bodyguards are green, you can still minimize the chances of passing the info to a 3rd party red by doing a bit of behavior analysis. However if Ace is red and gets the name of the BGs, then we screwed ourselves over in that the mafia can just avoid hitting those 2 players. I don't know at this point what Ace could be (re: Shikyo, i just voted for him cause I figured he would attract votes later, and I wanted to keep Tricode out of office) If both are red, not passing the info loses us 2 players at NO risk to the mafia. Passing the info ensures that we have recourse if both bodyguards are red and the mafia go after the elected officials; we can retaliate with a degree of precision. The question remaining is whether mafia made the power play or not, or decided to play it safer. If both bodyguards are red, the mafia also don't have to kill Ace and/or Pyrr tonight. They can wait if they want to, keep that in mind. As for subbing 1 bodyguard: it puts an extra step in getting to kill Ace/Pyrr for them. If the bg info is passed and figured out, they only lose 1 mafia instead of 2. However there is also the chance that the bg info never even makes it to the mafia. However we should never assume that. In the scenario that only bg is subbed, the mafia will save 1 of its members at the cost of an extra night to kill Ace/Pyrr (first night, they kill 1 person +bg, 2nd Ace and/or Pyrr). What happens if either one of Ace or Pyrr are red? In that case only one will die. The other may feign medic protection, however since the medics know who they protected they will know the truth about this, and only have to wait until the right time to divulge that The remaining Ace/Pyrr will certainly be DT checked as well. While there a lot o theoretical combinations we can rule out some from the get go. For example, I do not find it plausible that both Ace and Pyrr are red along with the 2 bodyguards (thought that would be funnay). It is almost as unlikely that all 4 are green. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
The remaining Ace/Pyrr will certainly be DT checked as well. And receive back Pardoner/Mayor.Awesome. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
For one thing we know is certain - both myself and Pyrr can't be mafia. I wouldn't have even brought this scenario up if that was the case. We also know the if the Mafia do sub bodyguards it HAS to be BOTH and not just one. They have to try and kill one or both of us asap. They can't wait because if the bodyguard info is passed or they can't kill since one BG would be green they'd be fucked because they subbed for no gain. Remember this: BOTH have to be the same color. We need the 3rd player to be PUBLICLY notified. By this I mean Pyrr PMs the player the BG info, and the player PUBLICLY says he got it. This way the DTs immediately role check that guy so if the Mafia kills him we've got some information. The medics prot me or Pyrr in the case that the Mafia subbed both in. Now look at it from that point of view. We cover ALL bases and if the Mafia kill the 3rd party our DTs got some info. They can't kill both myself and Pyrr. We move on to Day 2 with info, no lynched innocents, and now we'd have the ability to skip the Vet plan and the DTs possibly 1/3rd of the way to their sanity. Remember they had to have subbed in before Night 1 is over and this is why I'm rushing it. If we can get everyone on the same page this game will literally be over in no time. Ask yourselves have I ever been wrong? exactly. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
Oh yeah. derp | ||
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Vivi57
United States6599 Posts
2 mafia: massive protection for pyrr and ace 1 green 1 mafia: still very strong protection because they'd be sacrificing one of their own for ace and pyrr 2 green: this puts the mafia in a hard spot unless one of them is a vet. They'll have to decide whether they want to waste a nights worth of hits just for the possibilty they can kill ace and pyrr the next day. It'll make the medic mindgame harder for sure, but historically, medics have missed every night anyway. | ||
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Tricode
United States538 Posts
On October 25 2009 05:41 Vivi57 wrote: Someone explain to me why we shouldn't post the bg names publicly. 2 mafia: massive protection for pyrr and ace 1 green 1 mafia: still very strong protection because they'd be sacrificing one of their own for ace and pyrr 2 green: this puts the mafia in a hard spot unless one of them is a vet. They'll have to decide whether they want to waste a nights worth of hits just for the possibilty they can kill ace and pyrr the next day. It'll make the medic mindgame harder for sure, but historically, medics have missed every night anyway. Ace said it was all or nothing for the mafia to replace bodyguards. So what if they didn't do it? Letting everyone knows will include letting the mafia know who the bg's are. | ||
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Vivi57
United States6599 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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