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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On October 25 2009 01:54 redtooth wrote: how long is night? im bored. nothings really happening. Night ends in 8 hours or when we get all the night actions in. We do not have all the night actions in yet, so right now I'm saying 8 hours. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
We now have checks available, so what we are trying to do is establish DT sanity while putting the vet plan in motion. The first thing we do is select a lynch candidate NOW. Motbob is IA because his grandfather died, and statistically there is about a 3/4th chance he is either red or Tomorrow unless we somehow get a better candidate we lynch motbob. Now we have the checks confirmed. If Motbob turns green/red we get the DT information on their sanity and it is narrowed down to two. Then as night falls again we have the DT's ability to role check again and the Vet plan comes into play. When they check the "Vet" he should be blue, so now we have 2 colors and the DT's now know their sanity and we have an established blue. Now the issue you could see is IF Motbob is blue then what? Then we proceed with the plan. The only issue now is the DT's sanity is not confirmed, however then the "Vet" is guaranteed to be blue or godfather. This is because when they check the "vet" he should come back exactly how they saw Motbob or something is up. In relation to the godfather being an issue, its a dumb move. If the GF fakes being the Vet we kill both the actual vet and the godfather and are down one mafia, which is an exchange I am sure we are willing to make. Any questions? | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On October 25 2009 01:57 Qatol wrote: Night ends in 8 hours or when we get all the night actions in. We do not have all the night actions in yet, so right now I'm saying 8 hours. Hopefully this means all the DTs! | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
You just said outlined the entire reason we don't have to kill motbob - The Vet idea. The Vet steps forward and all the DTs role check him and get confirmation. At this point there's no need to kill motbob as the DTs already have used their check for the night. Killing motbob would accomplish nothing. Right now there is only one thing we need to focus on - Pyrr telling myself and another player who the bodyguards are. He still hasn't done it and time is running out. We need this information before Night 1 is over. Once we move to Day 2 I'll reveal the second part of my plan. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 01:37 Amber[LighT] wrote: Obviously if you weren't elected mayor or pardoner you can't be mafia because mafia are capable of swaying the votes so they would make sure that non-mafia didn't get elected. Are you stupid? I didn't say anywhere that they had to have been running. I'm talking about 19 people here. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On October 25 2009 02:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Ace the Vet plan as I proposed was two prong, you said yourself that a sane DT becomes very powerful in this game. What we are aiming for is this. Sane DT's and an established blue. We now have checks available, so what we are trying to do is establish DT sanity while putting the vet plan in motion. The first thing we do is select a lynch candidate NOW. Motbob is IA because his grandfather died, and statistically there is about a 3/4th chance he is either red or blue. Tomorrow unless we somehow get a better candidate we lynch motbob. Now we have the checks confirmed. If Motbob turns green/red we get the DT information on their sanity and it is narrowed down to two. Then as night falls again we have the DT's ability to role check again and the Vet plan comes into play. When they check the "Vet" he should be blue, so now we have 2 colors and the DT's now know their sanity and we have an established blue. Now the issue you could see is IF Motbob is blue then what? Then we proceed with the plan. The only issue now is the DT's sanity is not confirmed, however then the "Vet" is guaranteed to be blue or godfather. This is because when they check the "vet" he should come back exactly how they saw Motbob or something is up. In relation to the godfather being an issue, its a dumb move. If the GF fakes being the Vet we kill both the actual vet and the godfather and are down one mafia, which is an exchange I am sure we are willing to make. Any questions? lol we don't know how many people are blue. Though there is a 4/20 chance he can be red....statstically of course... | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 02:20 Ace wrote: A 75% chance he's red or blue? Where did you come up with that number :/ You just said outlined the entire reason we don't have to kill motbob - The Vet idea. The Vet steps forward and all the DTs role check him and get confirmation. At this point there's no need to kill motbob as the DTs already have used their check for the night. Killing motbob would accomplish nothing. Right now there is only one thing we need to focus on - Pyrr telling myself and another player who the bodyguards are. He still hasn't done it and time is running out. We need this information before Night 1 is over. Once we move to Day 2 I'll reveal the second part of my plan. I'm highly certain he meant red or green, for which case 75% is just about correct. If the DTs check only the vet, they won't know their sanity. Also, what makes you so sure that the DTs have used their checks? That would make the least sense. Another thing, why would Pyrr have to tell you who the BGs are? As far as I can see, that has no benefit at all. I believe that now we need to decide who we lynch tomorrow so that DTs can check him tonight. If you have a good point against this, present it. "They have most likely already used their checks" isn't one. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
What I meant with the DTs using their checks statement is that assuming the Vet steps out before the night is over the DTs can check them out. Thats more guaranteed than guessing if motbob will die tomorrow. If Pyrr, Myself, and a 3rd player all know the Bodyguards the Mafia can't kill all 3 of us in one night. Hence THREE people are needed so the information is never lost. And once again I'll state if you want to lynch motbob there has to be some better reasoning presented here. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On October 25 2009 02:20 Ace wrote: A 75% chance he's red or blue? Where did you come up with that number :/ You just said outlined the entire reason we don't have to kill motbob - The Vet idea. The Vet steps forward and all the DTs role check him and get confirmation. At this point there's no need to kill motbob as the DTs already have used their check for the night. Killing motbob would accomplish nothing. Right now there is only one thing we need to focus on - Pyrr telling myself and another player who the bodyguards are. He still hasn't done it and time is running out. We need this information before Night 1 is over. Once we move to Day 2 I'll reveal the second part of my plan. I clearly I meant red or green. The number is an estimate of what I believe the game role count to be. 4 mafia, 1 medic 2 DT's 1 vet and 1 MH or Vig rest are towny. Which games ro about 15/21 who are red/green if that is correct. It seems like a good balanced set up, so I am assuming it is something similar. I honestly don't think anyone thinks giving you the BG list is the correct idea at all. You are acting fishy. Pure and simple. You somehow got the pardoner role going from 1 vote to 3 just enough to win. You know what your big post was that got that? On October 23 2009 06:13 Ace wrote: also I'm still running for Mayor ^_^ Regardless of who wins use the Vet idea. Shit, I'm convinced. Oh you know what is also interesting? One of your voters was Motbob. Stop playing the part of a fool. I am growing tired of it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
And if you think I'm fishy for winning pardoner, when you yourself just quoted the post I supposedly used to get it then don't you think it would be smarter to look at EVERYONE that voted for me instead of trying to single out motbob again? hurrrr durrrrrr? | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 02:40 Ace wrote: The only role we have a total for is Reds, so there isn't any way to guess any odds related to Blue or Green. What I meant with the DTs using their checks statement is that assuming the Vet steps out before the night is over the DTs can check them out. Thats more guaranteed than guessing if motbob will die tomorrow. If Pyrr, Myself, and a 3rd player all know the Bodyguards the Mafia can't kill all 3 of us in one night. Hence THREE people are needed so the information is never lost. And once again I'll state if you want to lynch motbob there has to be some better reasoning presented here. Oh I see, if the vet steps up tonight, then you're entirely correct. I just was under the assumption that the plan was for tomorrow, but it would work for today, too. I still think it'd be a good idea to pre-select someone to lynch. If not today, then tomorrow. I guess that's a good point, although we could alternatively just medic-protect him. However, since we can't know if we even have a medic at all... yeah I guess that would be the best thing to do. I guess you'd make the most sence to be the third person then. You can't pardon yourself so even if you were mafia it should work out fine. So... in the case a vet doesn't claim tonight, what's the plan? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Really, as long as we call out anyone and give them the RC the Mafia are in bind as they can't really kill the guy without giving us some kind of info and then we head to the next day 1up. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 02:47 Ace wrote: What you think is the role count is irrelevant - you don't know so your estimate is bs. And if you think I'm fishy for winning pardoner, when you yourself just quoted the post I supposedly used to get it then don't you think it would be smarter to look at EVERYONE that voted for me instead of trying to single out motbob again? hurrrr durrrrrr? A reason for that is that he took the time to vote for you before he replied to this thread and while he was supposedly busy. This can be because 1. he had the time to read the entire thread to see who were running and found your platform promising or 2. a mafia PMed him to vote. Do you honestly not see how exactly HIS vote is suspicious, and why it would make sense to concentrate on it? You don't see anything suspicious in the way he's acting? The votes we would be tempted to look at are Vivi's and L's. L doesn't really like Ace at all from what I've seen and they never seem to agree with each other. However, they haven't really argued this game and the vote was right at the end of the day. Still, Ace was far better than tricode so it's not that bad. Vivi shouldn't like Ace either since Ace thinks that Vivi is a terrible player. Vivi also was entirely convinced that Tricode was a green, and there's only one way you can be 100% certain. Also, he said that Tricode was by far the safest option, but 10 minutes before the end of the vote changes his vote to Ace with "I wanted Tricode as mayor not pardoner", even though it's the most disasterous if a mafia gets the pardoner role. It made no sense at all to change to someone you don't even really like and who you don't think is safe off a lot safer option. Caller hasn't been doing nothing except trolling lightly the entire game, so I don't know about his role but he sure hasn't been helping the town. I guess his vote was all right, though. Normally mafia wouldn't like to be the ones to give the first vote to a person, though, especially if it's someone who'd get voted anyway. Infundibulum acted pretty reasonably and had some good points early in the game, although after that he really hasn't said more than one-liners and such. I guess there's not much suspicious about him voting for you, though. On the other side of the coin, though, would someone who's been posting as reasonably vote for someone without a platform? Well, Tricode was at the time the other choice, so that's quite understandable. Even though the emphasis is on motbob, here you go. Every person who voted for you. At least some votes were quite suspicious, especially the late swing. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Second: The flip side to that is if both bodyguards are non-replacements, telling 2 additional people raises the chances that mafia learns about the bodyguards by 50%. If you're mafia, that's perfect, because you can eliminate the bodyguards, try to say one of the other information holders was the leak and then demand medic protection like you... already did. That essentially frees you up to kill whatever other office holder there is while claiming medic protection while getting the town to waste a lynch. Oh but wait, there's more. If you go through with doing so and drop a pardon onto whomever you decided to pin as the leak, now we're back 3 days, since we just wasted a day on the pardoned hit, the next day would be your death, and the day after that chances are we'd be forced to kill the pardoned person who might very well be innocent. 3 days is 6 mafia hits, putting us to a 7-1 trade for the play; not bad at all. If we're dumb and decide to hit the pardoned player before you, you might even get away scott free as you point towards the innocent corpse and state that you were trying to help town. Out of everyone in the town, telling you, or you telling pyrr when you get information is the worst possible idea; Neither of you can be DT checked when they confirm their sanity state, and neither of you can be mad hattered or vig'd once exposed. I hate to always be the negative nancy, but I'd rather not have us assume a bunch of information we don't have, then essentially get raped before even being able to play the game because of it. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Also I like Ace, but think Tricode's a fucking moron. My intense hatred of his gigantic buffonery should have come through rather clear. If you want, I can probably dredge up plenty of PMs between Ace and I making fun of both him and Vivi for horrendous play in prior games if you want. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 03:16 L wrote: First off: the vet might not claim because if there are 2 vets in the game, both of them die and we're basically fast forwarded to day 4 with no kills. This isn't a 'small' concern. Its a huge hole in the plan. If we gamble and come up short, we're in big trouble. Second: The flip side to that is if both bodyguards are non-replacements, telling 2 additional people raises the chances that mafia learns about the bodyguards by 50%. If you're mafia, that's perfect, because you can eliminate the bodyguards, try to say one of the other information holders was the leak and then demand medic protection like you... already did. That essentially frees you up to kill whatever other office holder there is while claiming medic protection while getting the town to waste a lynch. Oh but wait, there's more. If you go through with doing so and drop a pardon onto whomever you decided to pin as the leak, now we're back 3 days, since we just wasted a day on the pardoned hit, the next day would be your death, and the day after that chances are we'd be forced to kill the pardoned person who might very well be innocent. 3 days is 6 mafia hits, putting us to a 7-1 trade for the play; not bad at all. If we're dumb and decide to hit the pardoned player before you, you might even get away scott free as you point towards the innocent corpse and state that you were trying to help town. Out of everyone in the town, telling you, or you telling pyrr when you get information is the worst possible idea; Neither of you can be DT checked when they confirm their sanity state, and neither of you can be mad hattered or vig'd once exposed. I hate to always be the negative nancy, but I'd rather not have us assume a bunch of information we don't have, then essentially get raped before even being able to play the game because of it. Awesome =) So with this, isn't the best plan to decide who to lynch and then dt check -> lynch him? | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On October 25 2009 03:20 L wrote: Raped. Also I like Ace, but think Tricode's a fucking moron. My intense hatred of his gigantic buffonery should have come through rather clear. If you want, I can probably dredge up plenty of PMs between Ace and I making fun of both him and Vivi for horrendous play in prior games if you want. No need, vivi's is the vote I'm most concerned about since it sealed it. Motbob's as well. But Ace was implying the other people weren't suspicious at all but there's plenty of reason to be suspicious. | ||
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