EPTBetter luck next time
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft TCG - Page 54
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Disengaged
United States6994 Posts
Better luck next time | ||
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grs
Germany2339 Posts
 But I am just glad that this time it seems to hit a reasonable number of real people; makes better hopes for the next wave. | ||
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RQShatter
United States459 Posts
On August 29 2013 06:11 Disengaged wrote: Well, good thing I'm not being hopeful to get a key because I'd be severely disappointed right now. Better luck next time FFXIV and Dota2 keeping me busy | ||
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HolydaKing
21254 Posts
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Godwrath
Spain10126 Posts
On August 29 2013 06:24 HolydaKing wrote: Aw, Trump doesn't like Priest, we can't even choose him to play it. haha Too much probability to handle. | ||
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Tosstriss
Canada334 Posts
But if he wants the chat to choose and the chat wants to torture him. He should pray that he never priests in Arena. | ||
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Chezus
Netherlands427 Posts
Say you play a mage, your opponent plays a pint size summoner (2/2). It is the only card on the board. You have arcane missiles (3 missiles 1 dmg each, can target either minions or hero at random). What are the chances of killing the summoner? The twitch chat on Trump's stream is currently exploding. They're saying either 50% or 3/7th | ||
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Redox
Germany24794 Posts
On August 29 2013 07:01 Chezus wrote: We should settle this once and for all. Say you play a mage, your opponent plays a pint size summoner (2/2). It is the only card on the board. You have arcane missiles (3 missiles 1 dmg each, can target either minions or hero at random). What are the chances of killing the summoner? The twitch chat on Trump's stream is currently exploding. They're saying either 50% or 3/7th It is 50% lol. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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Redox
Germany24794 Posts
H = Card hit, M = hero hit, *=Card destroyed MMM 1/8 MMH 1/8 MHM 1/8 MHH 1/8* HMM 1/8 HMH 1/8* HHM 1/4* Yes there are only 7 possible outcomes, which made Trump think it is a 3/7 chance for 2 hits. But the chance for HHM is actually 1/4 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1). So adding all the propabilities for 2 hits (1/8+1/8+1/4) we arrive at 1/2=50%. | ||
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gerd1022
United States58 Posts
We should settle this once and for all. Say you play a mage, your opponent plays a pint size summoner (2/2). It is the only card on the board. You have arcane missiles (3 missiles 1 dmg each, can target either minions or hero at random). What are the chances of killing the summoner? The twitch chat on Trump's stream is currently exploding. They're saying either 50% or 3/7th Depends on how the mechanic works. If all three missiles can hit the 2/2 even though it dies, then it is 50% If only a maximum of two can hit, then its 3/7. Possibilities (H for hit, M for miss): HHM (kill) HMH (kill) MHH (kill) MMH (not a kill) MHM (not a kill) HMM (not a kill) MMM (not a kill) If HHH is allowed, then there is one more kill option, which is 4/8, which is 50% Edit: Hmm i guess this disagrees with the person above. Why does HHM have double the probability? | ||
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Redox
Germany24794 Posts
It is really not that hard. | ||
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Godwrath
Spain10126 Posts
All missiles can't hit the 2/2, they don't do overkill. | ||
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Redox
Germany24794 Posts
On August 29 2013 07:13 gerd1022 wrote: Edit: Hmm i guess this disagrees with the person above. Why does HHM have double the probability? Just as I wrote, because the chance for HHM is 1/2 (H or M) x 1/2 (H or M) x 1 (only M possible) = 1/4 | ||
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gerd1022
United States58 Posts
like a true nerd, just coded up a monte carlo simulation to prove it. matlab code below + Show Spoiler + clear all clc clf close all kill = 0; runs = 10000; for i = 1:runs hero = 30; minion = 2; for i = 1:3 missile = rand<.5; if missile == 1 && minion > 0 minion = minion - 1; else hero = hero-1; end end if minion == 0 kill = kill +1; end end kill/runs | ||
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grs
Germany2339 Posts
See Gerd's post. The mistake people make, is dismissing hitting the hero three times. The objects are not equal therefore your monte carlo stuff fails. | ||
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Redox
Germany24794 Posts
On August 29 2013 07:28 grs wrote: 3/7. It is possible to hit the hero three times, but it is not possible to hit the minion three times (only 2 HP). See Gerd's post. The mistake people make, is dismissing hitting the hero three times. The objects are not equal therefore your monte carlo stuff fails. Wtf I thought I could not have wrote it any clearer. Just draw a propability tree if you have trouble understanding it. | ||
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Kupo
Sweden151 Posts
On August 29 2013 07:28 grs wrote: 3/7. It is possible to hit the hero three times, but it is not possible to hit the minion three times (only 2 HP). See Gerd's post. The mistake people make, is dismissing hitting the hero three times. The objects are not equal therefore your monte carlo stuff fails. You are wrong, there are only 3 options, minion taking 0 dmg, minion taking 1 dmg and minion taking 2 dmg, so the probability is 1/3. | ||
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SarcasmMonster
3136 Posts
12.5% HMH 12.5% MHH Where H=hit, M=miss, *=doesn't matter 50% is correct. | ||
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gerd1022
United States58 Posts
as he said, the chance for hit-hit-miss is double because the final missile is no longer a 50-50 chance; it is 100% to hit the hero. in other words, the other possibilities are all .5*.5*.5 = .125, but HHM is actually .5*.5*1, which is .25, exactly as he said in an earlier post. I originally thought 3/7, but now i am completely convinced. | ||
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