|
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
On April 06 2025 05:38 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 05:25 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 05:07 Mohdoo wrote:
So with this big shift with Europe doing their best to distance themselves from American military purchases by buying European military assets, I’m curious if anyone knows of how European stuff compares to an F35 or Russian aircraft. I’m not sure if any actual information exists or if it’s basically just each side’s propaganda. Anyone know? Realistically, propaganda aside, F35 is currently the only fifth gen fighter in the world. China and Russia claims to have them, but from the little information we've gleamed it doesn't really paint the picture the propaganda is claiming. But at the end of the day, they can claim whatever they can't, and we can't really refute it. The definition is vague to begin with. It's not like stealth and battlespace communication is a binary "yes or no" feature. You can have a "slightly stealthy aircraft that talks with other jets in close proximity" and pretend it's fifth gen. But realistically, it doesn't stack up. Europe has no fifth gen fighter, but Sweden is developing one. So does Turkey but.. barely an ally to begin with there, so wouldn't rely on that. Both Sweden and Turkey uses American engines as well. If we look outside of Europe, Japan is also developing their own, but who knows if anything is ever going to come out of these prototypes. I thought France was the assumed other option? It sounded like countries were considering purchasing fighter jets from France rather than the US F35?
France isn't making a fifth gen fighter. They are going to upgrade the Rafale with better sensors and data links, which would make it 4.5th gen. Instead they are skipping a generation and going for the sixth gen, which isn't going to happen for decades yet (The current plan is to have an early demonstrator by 2027, and have them in service for 2040. But those are low estimates. They don't even know what it's supposed to do yet).
|
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot.
|
On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot.
Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe.
However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost.
|
It's basicly toys with a mortar shell, wired up to a coat hanger twisted into an impact sensor.
|
United States42691 Posts
On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot.
Neither side has modern stealth jets and both sides have a shitload of Soviet era anti air. Last year we saw Israel cruise into Iran and destroy their Russian built anti air with impunity. That’s what we’d see if Ukraine got modern kit.
You’re also ignoring the impact of the Russian glide bombs which, after a decade long siege, broke the fortress of Avdiivka. Yeeting giant bombs from over the horizon is easier with jets than artillery because jets are higher and less vulnerable to counterbattery fire.
Aviation has not been irrelevant in this war and it certainly wouldn’t be in any other conflict.
|
United States42691 Posts
On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost.
One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages.
I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion.
Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them.
|
On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them.
Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components.
No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation.
|
On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation.
Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere.
|
On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere.
No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China.
China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw.
The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million.
I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using.
|
On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. Show nested quote +The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using.
Those are the simple economics of the war. You can have super expensive high end stuff to dominate the battlefield or you can have loads of cheap stuff. Obviously the expensive stuff will win but the downside is that it's unsustainable in a longer run. You can win some battles this way but if the war drags on you simply won't be able to replace the losses and the economics are not on your side (just like in the Red Sea, where US is using missiles that cost millions of dollars to shoot down missiles that cost a few thousand dollars).
|
On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere. No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China. China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. Show nested quote +The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using.
Don't confuse everything, Taiwan buying drones from the US doesn't mean chips within those drones are not made by american companies in taiwan.
While China does make older generation silicium that can be used in drones, feel free to check the proportion of processors made by TMSC. there is a reason USA is ready to go to war with china over Taiwan, which allows Taiwan to stay independent. Anyway this falls back to the topic of US politics.
Anyway, I would not be surprised a high percentage of all parts originate from mainland china but that's just natural global economy.
|
On April 07 2025 09:38 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere. No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China. China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using. + Show Spoiler +
Don't confuse everything, Taiwan buying drones from the US doesn't mean chips within those drones are not made by american companies in taiwan.
While China does make older generation silicium that can be used in drones, feel free to check the proportion of processors made by TMSC. there is a reason USA is ready to go to war with china over Taiwan, which allows Taiwan to stay independent. Anyway this falls back to the topic of US politics.
Anyway, I would not be surprised a high percentage of all parts originate from mainland china but that's just natural global economy. Not sure why you tried to dispute it then, but the point was that Ukraine isn't "already the leading manufacturer globally" despite Kwark's assertion otherwise.
|
On April 07 2025 09:51 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 09:38 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere. No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China. China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using. + Show Spoiler +
Don't confuse everything, Taiwan buying drones from the US doesn't mean chips within those drones are not made by american companies in taiwan.
While China does make older generation silicium that can be used in drones, feel free to check the proportion of processors made by TMSC. there is a reason USA is ready to go to war with china over Taiwan, which allows Taiwan to stay independent. Anyway this falls back to the topic of US politics.
Anyway, I would not be surprised a high percentage of all parts originate from mainland china but that's just natural global economy. Not sure why you tried to dispute it then, but the point was that Ukraine isn't "already the leading manufacturer globally" despite Kwark's assertion otherwise.
Because his idea was interesting and not to be dismissed by your arguments, but there was so many angles that seemed wrong that I didn't know if I should even get started.
In drone manufacturing, I would put the importance of programming and radio tech is for more important that where the chips are made. Those chips are dirt cheap and a strategic reserve can be bought for nothing, so those brains focusing on the problem on hand will create practical solution for modern wars.
I don't think it was necessary to dispute anything you said, I could have just answers Kwark to begin with. Cheers.
|
United States42691 Posts
On April 07 2025 09:51 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 09:38 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere. No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China. China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using. + Show Spoiler +
Don't confuse everything, Taiwan buying drones from the US doesn't mean chips within those drones are not made by american companies in taiwan.
While China does make older generation silicium that can be used in drones, feel free to check the proportion of processors made by TMSC. there is a reason USA is ready to go to war with china over Taiwan, which allows Taiwan to stay independent. Anyway this falls back to the topic of US politics.
Anyway, I would not be surprised a high percentage of all parts originate from mainland china but that's just natural global economy. Not sure why you tried to dispute it then, but the point was that Ukraine isn't "already the leading manufacturer globally" despite Kwark's assertion otherwise.
Ukraine is the global leader in weaponized drone manufacture. They're producing more weaponized drones than any other nation and the drones they're producing are tested and honed under real combat conditions, their designs are the latest after taking into account all known and projected countermeasures.
"Well actually the components come from...." fuck off
|
On April 07 2025 11:35 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2025 09:51 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 07 2025 09:38 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 07 2025 07:43 0x64 wrote:On April 07 2025 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 06 2025 23:00 KwarK wrote:On April 06 2025 15:03 Excludos wrote:On April 06 2025 14:49 Broetchenholer wrote:
My very amateurish take from the Russian war is, that fighters are overrated, what you really need is tons of long range artillery. As long as you do not have so many fighters as the us that you can alpha strike the whole enemy air defence at once, having a few jets does not offer a lot. Well it's difficult to tell, because the Ukraine war is unique in how both sides have a high degree of focus on anti air. The western doctrine is completely different, and we simply don't know how well our way of fighting would work with a near peer foe. However, what is definitively true, is that drones have completely taken the battlefield by storm, and our (the west in general, but especially my own country) lack of focus on it is genuinely astounding to me. We should be equipping troops with cheap fpv kamikaze drones, and every frontline man and woman with recon drones. Compared to what we spend on our militaries in general, it wouls genuinely be a drop in a bucket in terms of cost. One issue is that it’s an extremely rapidly evolving technology. In the 1920s France was the world leader in military aircraft which turned into a problem when, by 1939, they were a generation behind. In Ukraine we’ve seen evolutions take just months before they’re obsolete. Being late to the race has advantages. I don’t think anyone wants to be the guy who places an order for a million mothership style relay drones the month before fiber optic comes back into fashion. Everyone is watching the use of drones but nobody knows yet how effective a specific design will ultimately be. Also once Ukraine wins you can buy the drones from them, they’re already the leading manufacturer globally and have the latest designs and will have a shitload of surplus capacity the moment they stop consuming them. Those were mostly Chinese drones and are still largely Chinese components (particularly the electronics/"brains" of the drones). Ukraine might be number 1 in the West at assembly and modification, since they have little to no competition though. Skydio is probably the biggest in the US and they are also dependent on Chinese components. No idea how Ukraine could hope to compete on much of the components (without massive investments in infrastructure that would take decades to build/pay off, and even then), but Ukraine is probably positioned better (provided a massive post war investment) than most of the West to compete with China's clearly dominant drone manufacturing. The lithium reserves in Ukraine are also a big part of that calculation. Not chinese, Taiwanese... China probably is making the motors, but motors are so low tech that you can spin up a drone electric motor factory pretty much anywhere. No, Chinese, and that's not because "there is one China and Taiwan is part of that China" according to the US. The motors are one of the things Ukraine ostensibly is making. Perhaps sometimes the completed ESC's, AIOs/stacks/Flight Controllers come from Taiwan, but the components of those are still overwhelmingly made in China. China has cities with basically the factory productivity of entire western countries for the components used. There's no way even with Trump's grandest tariff dreams that anyone else (especially a war torn Ukraine) can compete for supremacy. Taiwan is buying drones from the US btw. The transactions demonstrate “that both Taiwan and the US are learning important lessons from the combat in Ukraine, and turning that knowledge into future procurement,” said Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery, a senior director with the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who has traveled to Taiwan to assess its defense needs.
In June, the US Department of State notified Congress that it had approved the sale of as many as 291 Anduril Altius 600M-V systems valued at US$300 million and as many as 720 AeroVironment Switchblade 300 “B” model drones valued at as much as US$60 million. I'm not great at math, but that looks pretty expensive compared to the Chinese drones/parts Ukraine has been and is using. + Show Spoiler +
Don't confuse everything, Taiwan buying drones from the US doesn't mean chips within those drones are not made by american companies in taiwan.
While China does make older generation silicium that can be used in drones, feel free to check the proportion of processors made by TMSC. there is a reason USA is ready to go to war with china over Taiwan, which allows Taiwan to stay independent. Anyway this falls back to the topic of US politics.
Anyway, I would not be surprised a high percentage of all parts originate from mainland china but that's just natural global economy. Not sure why you tried to dispute it then, but the point was that Ukraine isn't "already the leading manufacturer globally" despite Kwark's assertion otherwise. Ukraine is the global leader in weaponized drone manufacture. They're producing more weaponized drones than any other nation and the drones they're producing are tested and honed under real combat conditions, their designs are the latest after taking into account all known and projected countermeasures. "Well actually the components come from...." fuck off
It's obviously wrong/inaccurate to say "Ukraine is the global leader in weaponized drone manufacture" that's clearly the US (though Israel probably sells more "Suicide" or "loitering munition" style drones and other countries are catching up in some capacities). Same goes for the rest of your post.
What you're meaning to say is that Ukraine is the global leader in weaponizing Chinese consumer grade quadcopters and assembling/modifying Chinese components into weaponized quadcopters in a way that gives them much of the same capabilities as their much more expensive Western counterparts.
As someone that's spent the last decade or so building, modifying, and using quadcopters, as well as various other drones, these are not insignificant discrepancies.
|
Watching the most high tech war turning out inventions like airsoft/Calladuddyplayers who are also into RC is unreal.
|
I doubt that small, cheap drones will be a long term problem, once the solution is there, they won't do much (assuming they remain fragile). But I could be totally wrong.
The Ukraine war also seems to be a bit special... One side as no Air-force to speak off and no Navy at all.
Imho the most damning thing for the Russian army is, that it can't use it's theoretical air superiority to gain a serious advantage. In a conflict with serious targeted bombing runs before offensives, stuff would look very diffrent.
|
United States42691 Posts
I think you're going to be totally wrong.
The key thing for me is just how valuable everything else on the battlefield is.
If you're tasking a $5m ballistic missile to take out a target identified by its outline on satellite photos then the upside of sending a $200 drone to make sure that the target is still there hours later and that it doesn't, on closer inspection, turn out to be a cleverly disguised bouncy castle, is about $5m. You don't need a high rate of success on that mission.
Same with infantry advancing or defending, the eyes in the sky don't need to last long or be reusable or even achieve anything most of the time. Soldiers are very expensive, if it saves a life 1% of the time then it'll be worth it.
Anti drone weaponry also has a very tough challenge with cheap drones because of that equation. To make the cheap drone obsolete you'll need to have:
1. Cost per kill below the cost of the drones. This essentially rules out any missile or smart projectile (think Rheinmetall Skyranger 30). You can still use them to defend high value targets but they won't make the cheap drone obsolete. For a cost per kill below the cost of drones there's really only shotguns, energy weapons, and ewar.
If your cost per shot is $5k and their cost per drone is $1k then the drones can do absolutely nothing and they won't be obsolete.
2. Probability adjusted cost of kill below the probable value provided by the drone. You don't just need to make money on the kill, to make them obsolete you need the user to lose money.
Lets say you're firing a $10,000 barrage of artillery at a target 20km away. Getting confirmation of where they landed so you can adjust the next $10,000 barrage is absolutely worth a few $k. It doesn't matter that the lasers shot down the drone seconds later, it already paid for itself. Everything on the battlefield is so expensive that you need to get the probable kill rate very high and the probable value of the drone being killed very low for them not to pay for themselves. They've got to be disabled before they do literally anything.
If you get your cost per shot down to $500 and you get your kill probability up to 100% and their cost per drone is $1k then the drone only needs to provide $500 of value to be worth it. Lets say that a permanently disabled soldier has a lifetime cost of only $100k, it only needs to save 1 guy getting shot in an ambush once in every 200 drones to not be obsolete.
3. Invulnerability to saturation attacks. You've got a very long front to deal with and you cannot detect a concentration of drone assets ahead of time. Let's say the front can be divided into 50 20km stretches outside of which energy weapons cannot meaningfully assist each other. You don't just need to have enough energy weapons to deal with the drones the enemy has, you need 50x more energy weapons than that because if you spread your anti drone laser cannons out evenly and they group their FPV fiberoptic one way attack drones in one stretch then you'll be in the embarrassing position of losing your very expensive anti drone laser cannon to a bunch of drones. And again, the cost is key there. The fact that you can do saturation attacks and the fact that the cost of the countermeasure is orders of magnitude higher is why it is effective.
The very cheapness of the drones is why they won't be going anywhere.
I also think that you're underrating the impact of the Russian air force. Attack helicopters have been extremely effective at plugging gaps in breakthroughs and denying the impact of Ukrainian armour. The alligator fleet paid a high price for it but in every Ukrainian offensive they've acted as firefighters. Additionally since the artillery stockpiles ran out (Russia is now firing at the rate of production/donation from NK) the only territory successfully taken by Russia has been off the back of glide bombs which still basically don't have a counter. Ukrainian artillery has reached the point that it can reply directly to Russian bombardments, generally with greater range, greater mobility, and greater accuracy. There's still a 2:1 Russian advantage in actual shells fired but the era where Russia simply levelled Siverskodonetsk with the defenders still inside is over. Fortress Avdiivka did not fall to artillery, it was dismantled by glide bombs. You can't counterbattery fire at a jet moving very high up, very fast, and very far behind enemy lines. The only counter out there is going to be if Ukraine gets their hands on some meteor air to air missiles and modifies their jets to use them.
The Russian air force has been a bit of a meme this war but they're amazingly competent if compared to the Russian navy and they'd be doing a hell of a lot better if the Russian army stopped shooting their jets down.
|
I didn't want to say that the small drones are "useless" .. it's just a product of this specific war.
Giving infantry and mechanized troops an "eye in the Sky" within seconds.. is extremely valuable.
|
I can really only think of two possbile countermeasures to cheap drones. Lasers and EMP and both seem to be far from advanced enough at this stage. Possibly some sort of directed magnetic field can pull the drones but since they are basically 90% plastic, it doesn't seem ideal.
Maybe some sort of huge trawl pulled by helicopters?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
