Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 746

On November 07 2024 03:10 Simberto wrote:


Lol. World Peace. Surely what will happen after Trump forces Ukraine to surrender to a foreign invasion.

Surrender to aggression is no path to lasting peace. Ukrainians will keep dying under Russian occupation. Europe will go back to normal for a year or two, until Russia picks their next victim. Maybe Moldovia, maybe Georgia. Maybe someone else entirely.

I still wonder if you are actually serious or just a russian troll. You cannot be this daft. Or, of course, you got incredibly salty when Nato stopped your nation from genociding its neighbours, so now you are against Nato and for anyone else who genocided their neighbours in any situation you can find.

On November 07 2024 03:38 Silvanel wrote:
@Kwark
Well, I agree, but then what should I do? Despair? I rather be optimistic and hope for the best. Maybe Putin will unwittingly insult him or some republicans grow balls or Clarence Thomas will have his body invaded by an alien who actually, for a difference, have a soul. Many things can happen and future is not set in stone...

On November 07 2024 03:38 Silvanel wrote:
@Kwark
Well, I agree, but then what should I do? Despair? I rather be optimistic and hope for the best. Maybe Putin will unwittingly insult him or some republicans grow balls or Clarence Thomas will have his body invaded by an alien who actually, for a difference, have a soul. Many things can happen and future is not set in stone...

On November 07 2024 03:43 GreenHorizons wrote:

My response to that has mostly been that there's lots of revolutionary shit that isn't the haphazardly tossing around explosives you're allowed to advocate and limit your understanding of revolutionary praxis to, which you mostly just ignore.

On November 07 2024 03:44 WombaT wrote:
Perhaps mistakes were made in not properly integrating Russia into wider Europe/normality somewhat sooner. You don’t need NATO if Russia was just a relatively normal nation state, on the periphery of Europe, that behaved like well, every other European state towards each other. Doesn’t have to all be peace and hippy love, it’s not that in the EU, there’s plenty of regular political tension.

On November 07 2024 04:04 KwarK wrote:

And how has that been going so far? If you’re going to give up on voting and put all your eggs in the revolutionary basket then we better be close to a successful revolution because if we’re not then you’re just handing the wheel to the very worst people. You’ve got until Jan 20 to get it done.

On November 07 2024 04:14 Manit0u wrote:
I think the only hope for continued US support for Ukraine now is the money. US aid packages are pretty huge for their domestic manufacturers so great for the economy (70% of the aid package is being paid to US arms producers). I doubt they'd be willing to end that anytime soon. They can clear out some of their old stock, revitalize their military industry and strengthen their own economy at the same time.

Maybe I fail to see something but ending the aid to me seems a bit like shooting yourself in the foot for numerous reasons.

Edit: Also, if you end the aid you'd need to scale back down all the military production you scaled up recently. This shrinks the economy and closes down plenty of workplaces. Not a great look for the start of your ruling.

On November 07 2024 04:14 Manit0u wrote:
I think the only hope for continued US support for Ukraine now is the money. US aid packages are pretty huge for their domestic manufacturers so great for the economy (70% of the aid package is being paid to US arms producers). I doubt they'd be willing to end that anytime soon. They can clear out some of their old stock, revitalize their military industry and strengthen their own economy at the same time.

Maybe I fail to see something but ending the aid to me seems a bit like shooting yourself in the foot for numerous reasons.

Edit: Also, if you end the aid you'd need to scale back down all the military production you scaled up recently. This shrinks the economy and closes down plenty of workplaces. Not a great look for the start of your ruling.

On November 07 2024 04:24 Gorsameth wrote:
Didn't Republicans already halt aid to Ukraine for months earlier this year?

We know they can do it, we know they have done it. Why are we assuming they won't do it again?

On November 07 2024 03:59 KwarK wrote:

Yes, despair is literally the correct take here.

Europe won’t get their shit together due to the success of Russian hybrid warfare.

Britain’s economy is reeling from Brexit and a series of increasingly incompetent administrations. There is no Churchillian figure to make the case for national sacrifice, nor will there be. All parts of the political spectrum are constantly being agitated against each other, they’d rather all fail than share in success.

The inner EU group (France, Benelux, Germany, Italy) that might previously have been able to act decisively if it were not for EU expansion have found their body for collective action crippled by Russian proxies. They could engage in a combined foreign policy and are broadly speaking aligned but Hungary exercises a veto over the EU. They’re also crippled by their own political divides, largely over inflation and cost of living which are also being inflamed by Russian hybrid warfare. With aging populations and the destabilization of the economy they became reliant on immigration for maintaining the economic benefits that the previous generations took for granted (young workforce, retirement benefits, export driven manufacturing) but that opened the door for political polarization. Crises in Palestine somehow paralyze Paris, despite no direct link between the two.

Eastern Europe has its own set of problems with a Russian manufactured culture war there driven by LGBT rights, sexism, the rejection of strongmen etc. The challenge for Poland is reconciling their hatred of Russia with the significant portion of their population who would happily support Putin if he was a Pole.

Russia defeated the west without firing a shot. They paid the right people, bought the right social media influencers, bought the right media, destabilized the Middle East in a way that triggered mass migration, armed the right groups, pushed the right narratives. And the west was too busy making money to recognize that they were at war, despite intelligence agencies screaming it from the top of their lungs. It’s like global warming in that regard, it was clear that there was an existential threat that required some kind of response, everyone who was paid to be an expert in it identified it and called for action. But there was no political will.

My stance is still that Russia is fucked. Sanctions aren’t going away, Russian gas is not returning, the demographic issues are still there, the stagflation will still be hugely disruptive. But they’ve achieved a situation in which everyone loses.

On November 07 2024 04:48 Acrofales wrote:

And when you say Russian proxies, you mean Italy, and to a lesser extent Germany and Netherlands, right? Because Hungaria and Slovakia are irrelevant to the far right in those countries.

On November 07 2024 04:51 KwarK wrote:

I mean there is no inner EU and outer EU now, just the EU, and the EU is incapable of collective action due to Russian proxy infiltration. A renewed Russian threat could have led to greater military and foreign policy coordination between the inner EU, a common European force or similar. It cannot for the current EU.

On November 07 2024 05:29 Gorsameth wrote:
There is also no strong leader in the EU to get everyone's noses pointed in the right direction.
For all the hate Merkel gets, she was someone who could drag the rest of the EU along with her. And someone like that is sorely missed when dealing with a crisis like Russia

On November 07 2024 05:43 GreenHorizons wrote:

I hear this Putin guy is a pretty strong leader, maybe some of the EU is looking that way for someone to drag the rest of the EU along?

I jest, but yeah, isn't the fascists rising in Europe looking to Russia (part of Europe) to help them drag the rest of Europe along just what makes sense for them to do (as fascists)?

On November 07 2024 03:04 zeo wrote:

I've stated multiple times over the last two years that both sides were posturing and waiting for the US presidential elections that would ultimately decide how this conflict will end; brute force or diplomacy. Its not gloating to be glad a lot of people are not going to die.

This war was over two years ago, its been artificially propped up and reanimated on the backs of the wealth of future generations of Europeans and the blood of Ukrainians, but the inevitable end is coming. It will end, Europe will go back to normal, Ukrainians will stop dying, and a United States committed to not starting and funding conflict all around the World is a good thing for humanity.

World Peace isn't such a bad thing, you'll get used to it eventually.

Trump Advisers Push to ‘Freeze’ War in Ukraine, Pause Kyiv’s Bid to Join NATO – WSJ

Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump have put forward several proposals that would effectively freeze the war in Ukraine, solidifying Moscow’s territorial gains, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing anonymous sources close to Trump.

Trump, who criticized outgoing President Joe Biden’s handling of the Ukraine conflict, vowed during his campaign to end the war before he takes office next January. He previously said that his “good relationship” with both President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be central to his ability to end the war quickly.

According to WSJ, one proposal from within Trump’s transition team involves allowing Moscow to maintain control over 20% of Ukrainian territory, establishing a 1,300-kilometer (800 miles) “demilitarized zone” and blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years — all in exchange for continued military aid to deter future Russian aggression.

The plan does not include U.S. troops policing the demilitarized zone, nor funding from the U.S. or international bodies like the UN, a Trump transition team member said.

“We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British, and French to do it,” the person was quoted as saying. “We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European.”

Another proposal reportedly involves freezing battle lines and withholding U.S. arms from Ukraine unless it enters peace talks with Russia. This plan was allegedly drafted by two former chiefs of the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, Reuters reported in June.

WSJ noted a third, less defined plan by a candidate for a high-level cabinet position that would prioritize a ceasefire, potentially requiring Kyiv to make significant concessions.

The only proposed approach that avoids a “major win” for Russia reportedly comes from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a potential candidate to lead the Pentagon, though details were not provided.

It remains unclear which plan Trump will pursue to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the Ukraine war. “[Trump] makes his own calls on national-security issues,” a former National Security Council aide told WSJ.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the proposals as “abstract” but did not rule out a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump before the U.S. presidential inauguration in January.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/07/trump-advisers-push-to-freeze-war-in-ukraine-pause-kyivs-bid-to-join-nato-wsj-a86935