|
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
On November 05 2024 06:58 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 06:44 Manit0u wrote:On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. The shells aren't that big of a problem actually. Reports say that about 60-70% of NK shells are defective for one and the other problem Russia is facing is that they're kinda running out of stuff to shoot those shells with. Recently there were some reports with images of Russian supply depots with artillery and most of it is all but gone (no more mortars, most of the bigger things also gone). The problem with NK troops is the question if it's a one time thing (10-15k soldiers) or a monthly occurance. If NK is going to provide troops every month this will seriously disrupt the fragile balance in this war. Right now UA and RU are roughly equal in terms of how many troops they are able to make fit for the front each month (around 25k). If one of them suddenly gets to beat the other's replenishment rate by 50% it's a problem. For now though there are way too many unknowns though. If Russia is taking the NK troops but has to supply them with weapons, ammo and other gear themselves this might be an issue for them as they don't seem to be running high on basic supplies for the soldiers (even providing cans of meat that turn out to be just full of dirty water). Decades of corruption are catching up to them now. You could hide equipment misapropriation and other stuff when the stocks were huge but as they're running out a lot of it is coming to light and they find themselves in a precarious position where they don't really have what they thought they had. Yeah I agree with a lot here. I think its possible Russia can offer enough to North Korea to get a substantial troop commitment. I think this is a resource many people failed to account for or undervalued. Among the nations Russia has. close ties to, Russia has significant military technologies to offer in exchange for soldiers. North Korea is basically the perfect fit for Russia. They have an insanely large military but also extreme economic and technological weaknesses. In a situation where Putin can secure 100,000 quickly mobilized North Korean soldiers in exchange for highly coveted technology, I think he will go for it. As many people seem to agree, this war as a whole will determine Russia's future. You could argue Russia has very little to lose by providing North Korea with a significant technological leap. It all comes down to this: North Korea could likely send 100,000 troops straight into Ukraine if they have a good enough reason to do so. Even poorly armed and poorly trained troops could be used effectively within the context of this war of attrition. What would Russia be willing to pay for 100,000 "ASAP" troops? Probably just about anything.
The problem here is China actually. It has already shown its displeasure and I think it's one of the reasons why we haven't seen NK troops inside of Ukraine territory and the only reports so far were from the Kursk region.
The thing is that if NK troops set foot on Ukrainian territory then North Korea might be considered an active belligerent in this conflict. This in turn opens up a whole can of worms. NK doesn't care about sanctions since they're sanctioned already, nor does it give a fuck about opening itself up for an attack since they believe they're fighting already. China has a defensive pact signed with NK though so with this it might get dragged into a conflict it doesn't want and can't afford (sanctions would ruin China). That's why China was so careful and balancing on a tightrope when it comes to providing support for Russia, now it's quite furious about Russia exerting influence over NK and making it do stuff that China doesn't want.
|
On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK.
I agree on everything, those 10k are completely irrelevant in terms of being more than a drop in the bucket; literally a week's worth of men in casualties. However for me it's the principle. North Korea is sending men in to battle on behalf of its government. North Korea is therefore now at war with Ukraine. Sending equipment makes you an ally, sending men is an escalation. That's why I find it puzzling that literally no government is reaction to this.
On a slight digression, what really saddens me is how passive South Korea has been through all this as well. Their survival as a country literally only came about due to support from their allies, and yet when their mortal enemy is threatening the existence of another free country in much the same way, they refuse to budge an inch. A recent poll revealed 2/3 of the Korean population are not in favour of supporting Ukraine in any way, even after NK sent men. It genuinely angers me how self centered these people are showing themselves to be. I get it's a country on the other side of the world, but it's not like we here in Europe or America wouldn't help if SK were invaded by any of their neighbours.
|
On November 05 2024 07:19 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. I agree on everything, those 10k are completely irrelevant in terms of being more than a drop in the bucket; literally a week's worth of men in casualties. However for me it's the principle. North Korea is sending men in to battle on behalf of its government. North Korea is therefore now at war with Ukraine. Sending equipment makes you an ally, sending men is an escalation. That's why I find it puzzling that literally no government is reaction to this. On a slight digression, what really saddens me is how passive South Korea has been through all this as well. Their survival as a country literally only came about due to support from their allies, and yet when their mortal enemy is threatening the existence of another free country in much the same way, they refuse to budge an inch. A recent poll revealed 2/3 of the Korean population are not in favour of supporting Ukraine in any way, even after NK sent men. It genuinely angers me how self centered these people are showing themselves to be.
SK is providing intelligence and I think they promised more support for UA. China also responded to this but in a more subtle way (in a congratulatory message for the 75th anniversary of the party founding they omitted a traditional statement that they're a "friendly neighboring country").
|
On November 05 2024 07:23 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 07:19 Excludos wrote:On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. I agree on everything, those 10k are completely irrelevant in terms of being more than a drop in the bucket; literally a week's worth of men in casualties. However for me it's the principle. North Korea is sending men in to battle on behalf of its government. North Korea is therefore now at war with Ukraine. Sending equipment makes you an ally, sending men is an escalation. That's why I find it puzzling that literally no government is reaction to this. On a slight digression, what really saddens me is how passive South Korea has been through all this as well. Their survival as a country literally only came about due to support from their allies, and yet when their mortal enemy is threatening the existence of another free country in much the same way, they refuse to budge an inch. A recent poll revealed 2/3 of the Korean population are not in favour of supporting Ukraine in any way, even after NK sent men. It genuinely angers me how self centered these people are showing themselves to be. SK is providing intelligence and I think they promised more support for UA. China also responded to this but in a more subtle way (in a congratulatory message for the 75th anniversary of the party founding they omitted a traditional statement that they're a "friendly neighboring country").
I'm not sure if SK is providing any intelligence, at least there's not a lot to indicate it, but tbf intelligence is one of those things the rest of the world doesn't necessarily get to know about in the first place. What SK is confirmed providing is humanitarian aid and economic support (in the form of loans that are only to be used for economic projects, not offensive ones). They vehemently refuse to provide any military equipment, which is what is mainly required if Ukraine is even going to be able to get to the point of rebuilding themselves in the first place.
|
On November 05 2024 07:18 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 06:58 Mohdoo wrote:On November 05 2024 06:44 Manit0u wrote:On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. The shells aren't that big of a problem actually. Reports say that about 60-70% of NK shells are defective for one and the other problem Russia is facing is that they're kinda running out of stuff to shoot those shells with. Recently there were some reports with images of Russian supply depots with artillery and most of it is all but gone (no more mortars, most of the bigger things also gone). The problem with NK troops is the question if it's a one time thing (10-15k soldiers) or a monthly occurance. If NK is going to provide troops every month this will seriously disrupt the fragile balance in this war. Right now UA and RU are roughly equal in terms of how many troops they are able to make fit for the front each month (around 25k). If one of them suddenly gets to beat the other's replenishment rate by 50% it's a problem. For now though there are way too many unknowns though. If Russia is taking the NK troops but has to supply them with weapons, ammo and other gear themselves this might be an issue for them as they don't seem to be running high on basic supplies for the soldiers (even providing cans of meat that turn out to be just full of dirty water). Decades of corruption are catching up to them now. You could hide equipment misapropriation and other stuff when the stocks were huge but as they're running out a lot of it is coming to light and they find themselves in a precarious position where they don't really have what they thought they had. Yeah I agree with a lot here. I think its possible Russia can offer enough to North Korea to get a substantial troop commitment. I think this is a resource many people failed to account for or undervalued. Among the nations Russia has. close ties to, Russia has significant military technologies to offer in exchange for soldiers. North Korea is basically the perfect fit for Russia. They have an insanely large military but also extreme economic and technological weaknesses. In a situation where Putin can secure 100,000 quickly mobilized North Korean soldiers in exchange for highly coveted technology, I think he will go for it. As many people seem to agree, this war as a whole will determine Russia's future. You could argue Russia has very little to lose by providing North Korea with a significant technological leap. It all comes down to this: North Korea could likely send 100,000 troops straight into Ukraine if they have a good enough reason to do so. Even poorly armed and poorly trained troops could be used effectively within the context of this war of attrition. What would Russia be willing to pay for 100,000 "ASAP" troops? Probably just about anything. The problem here is China actually. It has already shown its displeasure and I think it's one of the reasons why we haven't seen NK troops inside of Ukraine territory and the only reports so far were from the Kursk region. The thing is that if NK troops set foot on Ukrainian territory then North Korea might be considered an active belligerent in this conflict. This in turn opens up a whole can of worms. NK doesn't care about sanctions since they're sanctioned already, nor does it give a fuck about opening itself up for an attack since they believe they're fighting already. China has a defensive pact signed with NK though so with this it might get dragged into a conflict it doesn't want and can't afford (sanctions would ruin China). That's why China was so careful and balancing on a tightrope when it comes to providing support for Russia, now it's quite furious about Russia exerting influence over NK and making it do stuff that China doesn't want.
I suppose the way I see it is: North Korea has been incredibly reliant on the lifeline provided by China. They are essentially a vassal state of China. China gives North Korea enough to get by, but not nearly as much as they desire. North Korea is in such a tough situation that they don't really have much bargaining capability against China. They are forced to accept what China gives them. What if Russia flips that upside down? What if Russia offers to be much more generous? You could argue Russia is well-served by North Korea being an actual threat whereas China is incentivized to keep North Korea weak.
|
United States41656 Posts
On November 05 2024 06:44 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. The shells aren't that big of a problem actually. Reports say that about 60-70% of NK shells are defective for one and the other problem Russia is facing is that they're kinda running out of stuff to shoot those shells with. Recently there were some reports with images of Russian supply depots with artillery and most of it is all but gone (no more mortars, most of the bigger things also gone). The problem with NK troops is the question if it's a one time thing (10-15k soldiers) or a monthly occurance. If NK is going to provide troops every month this will seriously disrupt the fragile balance in this war. Right now UA and RU are roughly equal in terms of how many troops they are able to make fit for the front each month (around 25k). If one of them suddenly gets to beat the other's replenishment rate by 50% it's a problem. For now though there are way too many unknowns though. If Russia is taking the NK troops but has to supply them with weapons, ammo and other gear themselves this might be an issue for them as they don't seem to be running high on basic supplies for the soldiers (even providing cans of meat that turn out to be just full of dirty water). Decades of corruption are catching up to them now. You could hide equipment misapropriation and other stuff when the stocks were huge but as they're running out a lot of it is coming to light and they find themselves in a precarious position where they don't really have what they thought they had.
Without the NK shells Russia doesn't have artillery advantage which is a key part of their offensive strategy. Without the NK shells Russia has no offensive. They're a huge problem. We saw what happened to Ukraine when the US stopped giving them shells for a few months.
|
SK needs to at least match NK shell donations.
|
On November 05 2024 22:22 Billyboy wrote:
SK needs to at least match NK shell donations.
They have been lending the US shells which frees up the US for sending their own stock in return. That was a big help already. Not sure they can do the same thing again, not many places have large enough stocks to free up using same method.
|
On November 05 2024 07:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 07:18 Manit0u wrote:On November 05 2024 06:58 Mohdoo wrote:On November 05 2024 06:44 Manit0u wrote:On November 05 2024 05:46 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2024 03:50 Excludos wrote:
So in the last week we have:
1. North Koreans proven to be on the front lines (some were recently killed in Kursk)
2. Evidence for Russia using gas attacks
3. Evidence for Russia planning and performing a "dry run" of planting incendiary devices on US civilian planes (2 devices were found)
These should all be larger stories than they are. We've gotten way too comfortable sitting on our hands doing nothing whilst Russia continues to perform terrorism and involving other countries. At this point we should be sending people to Ukraine ourselves. Perun’s latest video went into the NK relationship in some depth and essentially the NK manpower isn’t the real issue, the NK shells are. NK has provided more shells alone than all of Ukraine’s allies. Early in the war, around the time of the destruction of cities like Sievierodonetsk there was a lot of ink spent saying that Russia was going allin on a short war and depleting its shell reserves rapidly. That it was firing shells at a 20:1 ratio in some parts of the front hoping that it would win before the stockpile ran out. Obviously it did not, and Russia did subsequently run out of artillery ammunition. The reason Russia’s offensive potential did not end with their failed allin is NK. SK’s intelligence estimates put around half of Russia’s shells fired these days as NK supplied. A lot of these count as Russian production because they’re refurbished by Russia to replace defective components but they’re NK. As many as 9m shells. This absolutely dwarfs the European commitment to provide 1m shells, a commitment they subsequently fell short of. 10,000 North Korean troops are irrelevant compared to those shells. The Soviet Union was, for all its faults, capable of fairly advanced military tech in a few key areas like rocketry, submarines, nuclear miniaturization and so forth. The manufacture of a nuclear weapon to be dropped out of the back of a plane is 1945 tech, and that’s as far as NK has gotten. They can set one off in a bunker under a mountain but they can’t get one to SK, let alone to Japan or America. That is what NK are getting from Putin. Kim recognized that they were stuck on missile tech and that only the fish were afraid of them. Trading their rusting 1960s shell stockpile for tech that would make them a genuine threat to the US directly was a colossal win for NK. The shells aren't that big of a problem actually. Reports say that about 60-70% of NK shells are defective for one and the other problem Russia is facing is that they're kinda running out of stuff to shoot those shells with. Recently there were some reports with images of Russian supply depots with artillery and most of it is all but gone (no more mortars, most of the bigger things also gone). The problem with NK troops is the question if it's a one time thing (10-15k soldiers) or a monthly occurance. If NK is going to provide troops every month this will seriously disrupt the fragile balance in this war. Right now UA and RU are roughly equal in terms of how many troops they are able to make fit for the front each month (around 25k). If one of them suddenly gets to beat the other's replenishment rate by 50% it's a problem. For now though there are way too many unknowns though. If Russia is taking the NK troops but has to supply them with weapons, ammo and other gear themselves this might be an issue for them as they don't seem to be running high on basic supplies for the soldiers (even providing cans of meat that turn out to be just full of dirty water). Decades of corruption are catching up to them now. You could hide equipment misapropriation and other stuff when the stocks were huge but as they're running out a lot of it is coming to light and they find themselves in a precarious position where they don't really have what they thought they had. Yeah I agree with a lot here. I think its possible Russia can offer enough to North Korea to get a substantial troop commitment. I think this is a resource many people failed to account for or undervalued. Among the nations Russia has. close ties to, Russia has significant military technologies to offer in exchange for soldiers. North Korea is basically the perfect fit for Russia. They have an insanely large military but also extreme economic and technological weaknesses. In a situation where Putin can secure 100,000 quickly mobilized North Korean soldiers in exchange for highly coveted technology, I think he will go for it. As many people seem to agree, this war as a whole will determine Russia's future. You could argue Russia has very little to lose by providing North Korea with a significant technological leap. It all comes down to this: North Korea could likely send 100,000 troops straight into Ukraine if they have a good enough reason to do so. Even poorly armed and poorly trained troops could be used effectively within the context of this war of attrition. What would Russia be willing to pay for 100,000 "ASAP" troops? Probably just about anything. The problem here is China actually. It has already shown its displeasure and I think it's one of the reasons why we haven't seen NK troops inside of Ukraine territory and the only reports so far were from the Kursk region. The thing is that if NK troops set foot on Ukrainian territory then North Korea might be considered an active belligerent in this conflict. This in turn opens up a whole can of worms. NK doesn't care about sanctions since they're sanctioned already, nor does it give a fuck about opening itself up for an attack since they believe they're fighting already. China has a defensive pact signed with NK though so with this it might get dragged into a conflict it doesn't want and can't afford (sanctions would ruin China). That's why China was so careful and balancing on a tightrope when it comes to providing support for Russia, now it's quite furious about Russia exerting influence over NK and making it do stuff that China doesn't want. I suppose the way I see it is: North Korea has been incredibly reliant on the lifeline provided by China. They are essentially a vassal state of China. China gives North Korea enough to get by, but not nearly as much as they desire. North Korea is in such a tough situation that they don't really have much bargaining capability against China. They are forced to accept what China gives them. What if Russia flips that upside down? What if Russia offers to be much more generous? You could argue Russia is well-served by North Korea being an actual threat whereas China is incentivized to keep North Korea weak.
There's a reason everyone, including Russia, was sanctioning the hell out of NK since they started pursuing nuclear tech in the early 00's; no sane country wants to be bordering a nuclear state with a dictator who only cares about himself and not his country. The nuclear deterrence rules and motivations don't apply to nearly the same degree.
Imagine a Mexican standoff situation where everybody's got bombs planted in everyone else's house and office, and the only thing stopping them from pushing the detonation button is the knowledge someone else will blow up their own. Nice houses and offices. Some even have families they care about in them. People like to keep their stuff that they care about, so people agree not to do anything.
Then you get a crazy hobo in a tinfoil hat and cardboard box, one who has been blustering about blowing up his neighbor's houses and offices with his firecrackers for the last 20 years. Obviously no one likes him, especially not his neighbors, so he's been kept poor so he can't afford anything more than a cardboard box and firecrackers. Everyone who takes the time to ponder the situation is extremely thankful he's not actually in the aforementioned Mexican standoff with real bombs, because he's fucking crazy.
Now, you've got one of his neighbors in a pants-on-head-stupid situation where he needs the rocks the tinfoil hat hobo has been hoarding under his cardboard box for the end of the world, and in exchange actually gives this crazy hobo the ability to put bombs in ALL of his neighbor's houses and offices (including his own!) and truly join the Mexican standoff.
Great for this guy, he's got his rocks, but from now on he and everyone else will forever need to deal with this crazy hobo who barely cares about his own cardboard box, and now take his rambling incoherent threats as seriously as a heart attack. And everyone will remember who enabled this crazy hobo.
|
Looks like Ukraine officialy lost the war, because I have no confidence in us and rest of europeans to give Ukraine everything what is needed to win it. Europeans always do the most idiotic moves when it comes to security.
|
On November 06 2024 20:18 hitthat wrote:
Looks like Ukraine officialy lost the war, because I have no confidence in us and rest of europeans to give Ukraine everything what is needed to win it. Europeans always do the most idiotic moves when it comes to security. Not to forget the increasing rise of the right (with or without Russian backing in the shadows) that will further reduce Ukraine aid.
Time to get that EU army up and running quickly because the US won't be there if Russia comes knocking.
|
United States41656 Posts
EU army will be poisoned by Russian information warfare on social media before it can get started. Russia is absolutely dominating the social media warfare. The useful idiots will universally speak out against any kind of EU army.
|
On November 06 2024 20:18 hitthat wrote:
Looks like Ukraine officialy lost the war, because I have no confidence in us and rest of europeans to give Ukraine everything what is needed to win it. Europeans always do the most idiotic moves when it comes to security. But why / how they "officially" lost the war now, what has happened recently? What did I miss?
|
Trump won and some people think it means an end to US support for Ukraine or even worse, that he will force Ukrainians to make concessions.
I am not really sure that will be the case. Trump is very volatile and it as actually very hard to predict what will he do. His volatility might be an asset sometimes but in foreign policy it is usually huge liability. Last time he was president we had US-EU trade war and sanctions on NordStream. Only time will tell what we end up with now.
|
Huh, I completely missed that US election happened yesterday.
This indeed might affect the situation quite a bit...
|
On November 06 2024 21:54 ZeroByte13 wrote:
Huh, I completely missed that US election happened yesterday.
This indeed might affect the situation quite a bit...
I envy your ability to stay of social media.. or just media in general in this case
|
On November 06 2024 21:22 Silvanel wrote:
Trump won and some people think it means an end to US support for Ukraine or even worse, that he will force Ukrainians to make concessions.
I am not really sure that will be the case. Trump is very volatile and it as actually very hard to predict what will he do. His volatility might be an asset sometimes but in foreign policy it is usually huge liability. Last time he was president we had US-EU trade war and sanctions on NordStream. Only time will tell what we end up with now.
Elon musk, jd vance and trump all have pro russian and anti ukraine views, how in the world will the us ever provide any more aid packages to ukraine after trump is elected? I give it a 0.000001% chance
|
On November 07 2024 00:48 sertas wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2024 21:22 Silvanel wrote:
Trump won and some people think it means an end to US support for Ukraine or even worse, that he will force Ukrainians to make concessions.
I am not really sure that will be the case. Trump is very volatile and it as actually very hard to predict what will he do. His volatility might be an asset sometimes but in foreign policy it is usually huge liability. Last time he was president we had US-EU trade war and sanctions on NordStream. Only time will tell what we end up with now. Elon musk, jd vance and trump all have pro russian and anti ukraine views, how in the world will the us ever provide any more aid packages to ukraine after trump is elected? I give it a 0.000001% chance
Yeah, there's not going to be any more aid packages. Even if we are simplistic and pretend Trump doesn't have direct ties to Russia, one of his typical selling points is "ending wars", so he'll do everything he can do end the war in Ukraine so he can brag about it endlessly. US support for Ukraine stops at the 20th of January, and i don't foresee for a second that EU leaders are going to take up the slack.
I am deeply disappointed in the world. We, as a species, are pathetic.
|
Zurich15306 Posts
It's likely even worse.
Trump will stop all aid to Ukraine, sure. That's what he said he'll do on day one.
But likely he will also tell Zelensky "capitulate, or else". And else can be anything from lifting all sanctions on Russia to coercing Euro partners to also stop further help. Or why not encourage material help to Russia instead.
Putin knows this of course and Medwedev is already public with maximalist demands. Which Ukraine cannot accept, so they will keep fighting a hopeless war and Russia will level city after city and kill further tens or hundreds of thousands Ukrainains and Russians.
|
Yeah, what's worse we Europeans also can't do no more moral posturing after that "1 million artillery shells" fiasco. The very fact that US backing off being treated as a big deal is a mark of our failure.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
