EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 74
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Manit0u
Poland17831 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7362 Posts
I can't imagine Russia stopping anytime soon. Even if they now say they will "just" keep the regions they have now and stop the war. Won't they just regroup and give it another go in 5 years? | ||
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0x64
Finland4635 Posts
On April 01 2022 17:29 Harris1st wrote: I know it's a bit early but how do you guys see this long term? I can't imagine Russia stopping anytime soon. Even if they now say they will "just" keep the regions they have now and stop the war. Won't they just regroup and give it another go in 5 years? It ends in a stalemate in the eastern front. Putin claiming success, making referendum for the area to join Russia... It's a boring and the most frustrating situation. Western Sanctions are not going to be lifted. It is hard to see that happen. As the War cools down in few weeks/month, India and China will start to become the effective trade partners with Russia. How long can Putin stay in power is the only serious factor. It doesn't mean that after Putin, new leadership will be opposite. Anyone who takes the reins after Putin will face incredible pressure from all fronts. How do you get some sort of investment back to Russia after this mess? It might take 20 years and a deep change in custom practice. Even before the war, Russia was practically self-isolating. The amount of bureaucracy to export anything to Russia is really something. Certifying an electronic device to Russia cost about 3x than for Japan. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
Other than regime change in Russia or collapse of Ukraine military, I don't see this ending differently. EDIT: It looks like Russian retreated from large swaths of terrain around Kyiv. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Finnish president says NATO referendum no longer necessary Sufficient evidence now shows that most Finns want to join the NATO alliance, President Sauli Niinistö told Swedish-speaking broadcaster YLE on Wednesday after he had called for a broad survey for membership just one week ago. Support for NATO membership has now risen to 61%, a poll commissioned by newspaper Helsingin Sanomat published on Thursday (31 March) shows. Only 16% currently oppose membership. The president’s change of heart was explained by Matti Pesu, a senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. In his interview with newspaper Uusi Suomi, he suggested that NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg may have assured Niinistö in last week’s talks that NATO is convinced that public support for membership already exists. Increased military spending is also something 75% of Finns want without delay, a fresh poll by the Keskisuomalainen newspaper shows. Only 9% do not want to see an increase. Russia, which currently sees Finland as a friend, will consider the country its enemy if it joins the military alliance, Niinistö also told YLE. Source | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
I wonder how putin will take it. We can expect more threats of nuclear annihilation. Can putin even hold the eastern regions ? If the ukrainian reports are to be believed, what stops them from booting them out of there too? | ||
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Simberto
Germany11952 Posts
On April 01 2022 23:43 Erasme wrote: Finns don't have that short of a memory I guess. I wonder how putin will take it. We can expect more threats of nuclear annihilation. Can putin even hold the eastern regions ? If the ukrainian reports are to be believed, what stops them from booting them out of there too? But if you want to join NATO, now is the time. Russia is busy in Ukraine and cannot really start more shit elsewhere, as they usually tend to do if someone is on the way to joining NATO. You may just manage to get into NATO while Russia is distracted. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22519 Posts
On April 01 2022 23:43 Erasme wrote: I fully expect Ukraine to try to boot them out entirely.Finns don't have that short of a memory I guess. I wonder how putin will take it. We can expect more threats of nuclear annihilation. Can putin even hold the eastern regions ? If the ukrainian reports are to be believed, what stops them from booting them out of there too? Can they do it? possibly. If Russia fully focusses on controlling the east maybe they can put up enough resistance to grind it to a stalemate | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
-Russian population support of war is steadily rising I have been told (It's hard to believe, but propaganda makes wonders, I guess) -Russians are moving reinforcements from far east to Ukraine. -Ukraine cannot replace lost tanks, jets and helicopters. Fuel and soviet made rockets/missiles might also be a problem. -West is not providing Ukraine with tanks, helicopters, jets, long-range artillery. I fear Russia will win a war of attrition and sanctions will not be enough. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14187 Posts
china and India will keep propping them up and we'll enter into a new cold war on a smaller scale. A war of attrition favors Ukraine. Javelins NLAWSs Stingers BA-2's are showing themselves to be fearsomely effective. Conscripts won't perform as well as native militias. | ||
KwarK
United States44243 Posts
On April 02 2022 01:08 Silvanel wrote: -There is conscription ongoing in Russia. -Russian population support of war is steadily rising I have been told (It's hard to believe, but propaganda makes wonders, I guess) -Russians are moving reinforcements from far east to Ukraine. -Ukraine cannot replace lost tanks, jets and helicopters. Fuel and soviet made rockets/missiles might also be a problem. -West is not providing Ukraine with tanks, helicopters, jets, long-range artillery. I fear Russia will win a war of attrition and sanctions will not be enough. I think you’re underestimating the impact of globalization on Russian industry. A willingness to fight doesn’t count for shit if you can’t make the trains run due to a system of economic dependencies. | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On April 02 2022 01:08 Silvanel wrote: -There is conscription ongoing in Russia. -Russian population support of war is steadily rising I have been told (It's hard to believe, but propaganda makes wonders, I guess) -Russians are moving reinforcements from far east to Ukraine. -Ukraine cannot replace lost tanks, jets and helicopters. Fuel and soviet made rockets/missiles might also be a problem. -West is not providing Ukraine with tanks, helicopters, jets, long-range artillery. I fear Russia will win a war of attrition and sanctions will not be enough. The conscription is their regular one. Each spring and each autumn there is one, new batch of conscripts go in and the ones who've done their service get out. And even if there was intention of sending conscripts in these guys will be ready earliest in six months from now, likely not even then. Last autumn's conscripts are closest to being relevant to this war at the moment and we've already seen what their success has been. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17831 Posts
On April 02 2022 01:08 Silvanel wrote: -West is not providing Ukraine with tanks, helicopters, jets, long-range artillery. This is no longer true, apparently UK is giving them some AS-90s and they'll be getting more stuff. https://www.infobae.com/en/2022/03/31/the-united-kingdom-and-its-allies-will-send-more-military-aid-to-ukraine/ | ||
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Sent.
Poland9330 Posts
On April 01 2022 17:29 Harris1st wrote: I know it's a bit early but how do you guys see this long term? I can't imagine Russia stopping anytime soon. Even if they now say they will "just" keep the regions they have now and stop the war. Won't they just regroup and give it another go in 5 years? I think it's now or never. The West will continue to pour resources into Ukraine and Russia has failed to take anything that will seriously strenghten it or weaken Ukraine in the long run. It'll only get worse for Russia. If it doesn't win this war Putin will have to focus on stopping his government from collapsing instead of invading countries as big as Ukraine. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
Now those are obviouly aged and usually categorized as IFV, but it is still a step up from everything that has been delivered so far, which has been almost exclusivly infantry weapons and "consumables". And honestly, the story about jets is still... Tricky. Ukraine has most of their own jets servicable. And simply never flies them. (Most likely due to the wide ranging anti air umbrella of Ruusia). So at this point I consider deliverig more migs as less of a military discussion but more of a political one. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
I would love to be wrong. But I am afraid You overestimate the impact of sanctions on Russia. While certainly significant, they won't stop their ability to wage war on Ukraine. Soviet Union spent up to 17% of its GDP on military, they had 5,5mln military personnel. Now, I know Russia has half the population of SU. Yet, I am afraid that we are heading towards Russia becoming a smaller version of SU. With people being miserable and poor. A country run with propaganda, police and military. Everyone thought that SU will collapse to German advance in WWII. Yet, they persevered. This might be similar. One of the few saving graces that Ukraine has, is that Russia is a kleptocracy. Once again, I would love to be wrong. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22519 Posts
On April 02 2022 05:36 Silvanel wrote: I think your drawing the parallel wrong here.I might be wrong. I would love to be wrong. But I am afraid You overestimate the impact of sanctions on Russia. While certainly significant, they won't stop their ability to wage war on Ukraine. Soviet Union spent up to 17% of its GDP on military, they had 5,5mln military personnel. Now, I know Russia has half the population of SU. Yet, I am afraid that we are heading towards Russia becoming a smaller version of SU. With people being miserable and poor. A country run with propaganda, police and military. Everyone thought that SU will collapse to German advance in WWII. Yet, they persevered. This might be similar. One of the few saving graces that Ukraine has, is that Russia is a kleptocracy. Once again, I would love to be wrong. Yes Germanies invasion of the Soviet Union failed. But its Russia invading here. Not Ukraine. Russia isn't waging this war on its home soil where it just needs to feed bodies into an invader until they run out of steam. Ukraine needs to hold, and they are. Ukraine is the one being supplied by the West to help them hold on, like the Soviet Union was. Russia is the one running out of resources to feed their war machine, like Germany was. If you want to draw a parallel to WW2, Ukraine is the Soviet Union and Russia is Germany. Not the other way around. | ||
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