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On February 11 2024 01:08 ZeroByte13 wrote: I consider myself apolitical, and most people I know in Russia - i.e. "my circle" - are (or at least were) mostly apolitical too. If you live there you learn fast to separate Russia as a state/government and Russians as people around you.
Out of a few dozens people I know pretty well and talked to often (so I know their opinions), maybe one or two - both are 60+ years old - actually support the war, they watch TV and believe everything. But most of them (people I know) are against the war, and many are really against it. Those who could leave, they left, but many cannot for different reasons.
Most of them are apolitical because they learned their voices/votes mean nothing with the system that has been in place long before they could vote. It doesn't mean they're imperialists inside or anything. It's learned helplessness more than anything.
I think you may live in a liberal bubble. It's similar to how many Americans are asking "Who are all those people voting for Trump/Biden, I don't know anyone who does".
As I said before, every source of information I have paints the same picture - polls (both inside Russia and among Russians abroad), real-life and online interactions, street interviews, information on the Russian diaspora from my Russian colleagues, information from Ukrainian friends about their Russian friends and relatives.
On February 10 2024 08:08 KwarK wrote: Question is why would all these countries be so eager to get out from under Russian dominance.
Has to be one of Putin's biggest blindspots. He does not seem to fathom the idea that countries would flee from Russian hegemony. Therefore everything must be an outside plot because there is clearly no legitimate reason for the eastern nations to be anything other than friendly/ submissive to Russia wishes.
Russians are one of the most cowed nations out there. Most of them can't comprehend the idea of other nations taking their destiny in their own hands because themselves they have outsourced all political power to the Kremlin. When you watch street interviews with average Russians on channels like 1420 or such, you'll notice how often people talk about being "apolitical" or "outside of politics". They frequently say things like "let those at the top decide, they know better".
This is consistent with the data from independent polling organizations. Depending on how you phrase the question, you can find the vast majority of Russians either supporting the war ("Do you support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine?") or in favor of peace talks ("Would you support the Kremlin in pursuing peace talks with Ukraine?"; can't find the link right now). Most Russians will support whatever decision the Kremlin makes regarding the war. You have roughly 15-20% of rabid nationalists of different flavors, 15-20% staunchly against the war, and 60-70% in that apolitical blob accepting whatever the Kremlin does. Most of those are still imperialists, ranging from patronizing to outright xenophobic.
That is what you get when having an opinion that is not the Kremlin opinion gets you into trouble.
I'd probably be "apolitical" too. At least that way i don't have to feel responsible for the shit Putin is doing.
The majority of Russians living in Germany support Putin and the war. Are they also somehow coerced into giving such answers in opinion polls?
I see no one mentioned the funniest bit of the interview yet. According to Putin, Russia retreated from Kyiv out of kindness/fairness so that Ukraine would sign the almost finalized Istanbul peace agreement without a gun to its head, but as soon as they retreated the tricksy Ukrainians reneged.
On February 11 2024 01:08 ZeroByte13 wrote: I consider myself apolitical, and most people I know in Russia - i.e. "my circle" - are (or at least were) mostly apolitical too. If you live there you learn fast to separate Russia as a state/government and Russians as people around you.
Out of a few dozens people I know pretty well and talked to often (so I know their opinions), maybe one or two - both are 60+ years old - actually support the war, they watch TV and believe everything. But most of them (people I know) are against the war, and many are really against it. Those who could leave, they left, but many cannot for different reasons.
Most of them are apolitical because they learned their voices/votes mean nothing with the system that has been in place long before they could vote. It doesn't mean they're imperialists inside or anything. It's learned helplessness more than anything.
I think you may live in a liberal bubble. It's similar to how many Americans are asking "Who are all those people voting for Trump/Biden, I don't know anyone who does".
As I said before, every source of information I have paints the same picture - polls (both inside Russia and among Russians abroad), real-life and online interactions, street interviews, information on the Russian diaspora from my Russian colleagues, information from Ukrainian friends about their Russian friends and relatives.
On February 10 2024 08:08 KwarK wrote: Question is why would all these countries be so eager to get out from under Russian dominance.
Has to be one of Putin's biggest blindspots. He does not seem to fathom the idea that countries would flee from Russian hegemony. Therefore everything must be an outside plot because there is clearly no legitimate reason for the eastern nations to be anything other than friendly/ submissive to Russia wishes.
Russians are one of the most cowed nations out there. Most of them can't comprehend the idea of other nations taking their destiny in their own hands because themselves they have outsourced all political power to the Kremlin. When you watch street interviews with average Russians on channels like 1420 or such, you'll notice how often people talk about being "apolitical" or "outside of politics". They frequently say things like "let those at the top decide, they know better".
This is consistent with the data from independent polling organizations. Depending on how you phrase the question, you can find the vast majority of Russians either supporting the war ("Do you support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine?") or in favor of peace talks ("Would you support the Kremlin in pursuing peace talks with Ukraine?"; can't find the link right now). Most Russians will support whatever decision the Kremlin makes regarding the war. You have roughly 15-20% of rabid nationalists of different flavors, 15-20% staunchly against the war, and 60-70% in that apolitical blob accepting whatever the Kremlin does. Most of those are still imperialists, ranging from patronizing to outright xenophobic.
That is what you get when having an opinion that is not the Kremlin opinion gets you into trouble.
I'd probably be "apolitical" too. At least that way i don't have to feel responsible for the shit Putin is doing.
The majority of Russians living in Germany support Putin and the war. Are they also somehow coerced into giving such answers in opinion polls?
Probably not, but that is a completely different thing alltogether from the "apolitical" thing we talked about before.
I don't know why they support Putins war. But i don't really know a lot of Russians to begin with.
And if you want something even more sad: A bunch of Germans also support Putins war, or do insane Putinloving stuff like saying that "The only way to peace is to stop supporting Ukraine".
No, i also don't understand those people. Especially as they often claim to be left-wing. It is absurd to me as a left-wing person how anyone on the left could be supporting a hard-right autocrat in his war of aggression, yet here we are.
I think as time goes on I start to recognize a lot of similarities between russia now and what it was like in America during the Iraq war. Things weren't good but the story of nation building had a lot of credibility with how the previous generations had been able to nation build in korea, japan and Germany whatnot. Things didn't get completely out of control until the civil war kicked off after bush's second election. But between the war ending so fast and the civil war kicking off I remember this bizarre time where the occupation was being increasingly unpopular but no one was able to really critize it without being struck down by what establishment there was at the time.
People can accept that whats going on will be a shame on the nation and a massive hit to future prospects for a while until they feel like there is something they can do to express those feelings publicly without having their lives ruined. Russia has had civil discourse and rioting going on with the lack of heating in rual areas but as there isn't a democratic option to express those feelings people arn't going to be able to publicly say that they disagree with the war until they find some way to express that without ruining their lives.
The important distinction I think I'm trying to say is that there is a big difference between the pro war people who think this is a great thing going on and the ones who aren't saying anything because they know what will happen if they do.
On February 11 2024 01:08 ZeroByte13 wrote: Most of them are apolitical because they learned their voices/votes mean nothing with the system that has been in place long before they could vote. It doesn't mean they're imperialists inside or anything. It's learned helplessness more than anything.
So is it better to live life like a pig for slaughter? Excuse me, but if thought control continues to rule in Russia, things will NOT change.
On a different topic, here's some interesting video from a free-minded individual:
On February 11 2024 06:02 Sermokala wrote: I think as time goes on I start to recognize a lot of similarities between russia now and what it was like in America during the Iraq war. Things weren't good but the story of nation building had a lot of credibility with how the previous generations had been able to nation build in korea, japan and Germany whatnot. Things didn't get completely out of control until the civil war kicked off after bush's second election. But between the war ending so fast and the civil war kicking off I remember this bizarre time where the occupation was being increasingly unpopular but no one was able to really critize it without being struck down by what establishment there was at the time.
People can accept that whats going on will be a shame on the nation and a massive hit to future prospects for a while until they feel like there is something they can do to express those feelings publicly without having their lives ruined. Russia has had civil discourse and rioting going on with the lack of heating in rual areas but as there isn't a democratic option to express those feelings people arn't going to be able to publicly say that they disagree with the war until they find some way to express that without ruining their lives.
The important distinction I think I'm trying to say is that there is a big difference between the pro war people who think this is a great thing going on and the ones who aren't saying anything because they know what will happen if they do.
On February 11 2024 06:17 maybenexttime wrote: I doubt that applies to many people.
I know for sure it does, and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) I know 10x more about Russia and personally know 10x or 20x more Russians than you do - but it's pretty obvious there's no way to change your mind about this. People who want to think most Russians are bad will think so, there's no changing this now.
For what it's worth, I've met well over 100 russians/ukrainians (couldn't tell you in what ratio) since the war started and worked with 6 in the city I live. When they started arriving, I expected there to be tension and russians/ukranians to not get along, but a russian and crimean worked together often and got along very well, and also one of the russians I worked with was dating a ukranian. Those that were here didn't seem to carry open hostility with them, and a lot of them seemed to share camraderie from it.
Obviously, given that this is in Canada I'm interacting with entirely people avoiding the war or otherwise displaced by it, so there's going to be a fairly large bias against the war. Also, out of respect for the idea that they're escaping a war I didn't get into the habit of asking them their specific nationalities or political stances. If they brought them up I'd listen, but otherwise it doesn't matter to me.
It isn't a strong anecdote, but if the argument is "many russians are apolitical and would be vocally against the war if it was safe to be" I'd consider that within the realms of possibility. Normal-ass people don't really want a war, especially one as drawn out and expensive as this one.
On February 11 2024 06:17 maybenexttime wrote: I doubt that applies to many people.
I know for sure it does, and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) I know 10x more about Russia and personally know 10x or 20x more Russians than you do
Just to be clear, I meant the latter part of the bolded paragraph. Sermokala presented a false dichotomy of Russians either enthusiastically supporting the war or being against it but saying they support it out of fear. As I said earlier, most Russians will go along with whatever the Kremlin decides. If Putin wants to continue the war, they will support the war. If he wants to negotiate peace, they will support peace talks.
While you certainly know more Russians, I'm not sure you know more about Russia. You seem to live in a liberal bubble, completely oblivious to how your society is at large. What you're saying is directly contradicted by Russian sociologists studying the topic (such as Lev Gudkov, the director of Levada Center, 1, 2, 3), most Russian public figures speaking against the war, who admit that the opposition to this war is a minority sentiment, as well as the picture painted by the opposition media such as Verstka, Meduza or iStories.
but it's pretty obvious there's no way to change your mind about this. People who want to think most Russians are bad will think so, there's no changing this now.
You are wrong about that. You think I'm prejudiced towards Russians. I am not. I used to be quite sympathetic towards Russians and Russian culture, if not the Russian state. I studied Russian for three semesters at the uni. I listen to Russian music and read Russian literature (in Russian). If Russia were a normal country, I would've been considered a Russophile.
I used to view Russians as victims of their political system. But the more I learned about the Russian society, the more I interacted with average Russians through social media, internet forums and in real life, the more negative my opinion became. Right now I think most Russians belong in the basket of deplorables, but I would change my opinion if presented evidence to the contrary. The problem is that all evidence I can get my hands on - Russian social media, opposition media, sociological studies, opinion polls conducted both in Russia and abroad, personal interactions, opinions of Russian anti-war public figures, information from my Russian colleagues, testimonies of my Ukrainian friends regarding their interactions with their Russian relatives and friends - all of that paints the exact same picture.
But so far you failed to engage with that. You failed to explain why Russians in Germany or the Netherlands support what Russia is doing. Are they also afraid of some repressions (as a matter of fact, my Russian colleagues are telling me that some Russians here in the Netherlands are afraid to voice their pro-Kremlin sentiments due to fear of ostracism)? Why do most Ukrainians say their Russian relatives mindlessly regurgitate Kremlin talking points in private conversations? If Russians were generally against the war but afraid to speak up, you'd expect to see a stark contrast between what they say publicly in Russia and what they say in private conversations with Ukrainian relatives or opinions polls conducted among the diaspora. But you don't see that.
@Fleetfeet And the only Crimean I ever worked with refused to work with Russians and resigned when told to (that was before 2022) when many in the west still didn't realize the gravity of the situation.
Anyway some things to note: 1)Russians living outside of Russia are not subjected to massive peer pressure and propaganda, so their views might change 2) When in Rome, do as Romans do. People living in the west surrounded by people and environment with radically different outlooks on this war might not be eager to share their pro war stance. They might agree with You during conversation, even if deep down they are glad those rabid Ukrainians are getting what they deserve.
On February 11 2024 19:07 maybenexttime wrote: The problem is that all evidence I can get my hands on - Russian social media, opposition media, sociological studies, opinion polls conducted both in Russia and abroad, personal interactions, opinions of Russian anti-war public figures, information from my Russian colleagues, testimonies of my Ukrainian friends regarding their interactions with their Russian relatives and friends - all of that paints the exact same picture.
Maybe it's them who are in a pro-Kremlin bubble? Maybe you and they don't see or don't focus much (subconsciously) on the opposite side, and focus on what the loud aggressive group says?
And this group is huge - but so is Russia's population, and even 20 millions of warmongers who can competely drown the internet in their hate is just 15% of population.
Regarding people in Germany - I heard that a significantly higher percentage of Turks in Germany vote for Erdogan compared to Turks in Turkey. So maybe this phenomen is not specific to Russians.
I'd support you if you said that "many" or "a lot of" or even "too many" Russians support it - because it is too many. I cannot support it when you say "most".
On February 11 2024 19:07 maybenexttime wrote: The problem is that all evidence I can get my hands on - Russian social media, opposition media, sociological studies, opinion polls conducted both in Russia and abroad, personal interactions, opinions of Russian anti-war public figures, information from my Russian colleagues, testimonies of my Ukrainian friends regarding their interactions with their Russian relatives and friends - all of that paints the exact same picture.
Maybe it's them who are in a pro-Kremlin bubble? Maybe you and they don't see or don't focus much (subconsciously) on the opposite side, and focus on what the loud aggressive group says?
Maybe, but what they're saying is corroborated by all other sources of information. What you're saying isn't.
And this group is huge - but so is Russia's population, and even 20 millions of warmongers who can competely drown the internet in their hate is just 15% of population.
And if anti-war Russians were more numerous, they could easily drown the internet. Again, if there are so many anti-war Russians, why are they so hard to find in the West? There were massive pro-Kremlin rallies in Germany organized by the Russian diaspora, despite the ostracism by the German society. Similar protests organized by the supposedly numerous anti-war Russians are nowhere to be seen. You'll say they are afraid for their families back in Russia but somehow the Iranian diaspora shows up to the protests despite the fact that their regime is far more brutal.
Regarding people in Germany - I heard that a significantly higher percentage of Turks in Germany vote for Erdogan compared to Turks in Turkey. So maybe this phenomen is not specific to Russians.
It's more complicated. There are estimated 7 million people of Turkish heritage in Germany. About 1.5 million of them vote. The majority of them vote for Erdogan. Those are the less integrated Turks. Those who have integrated well or even assimilated simply don't vote in the Turkish elections, often don't have a Turkish citizenship. I'd say an opinion poll of Russians in Germany is more representative of their views.
I'd support you if you said that "many" or "a lot of" or even "too many" Russians support it - because it is too many. I cannot support it when you say "most".
Unfortunately, that seems to be the case. Also keep in mind that I am counting as supporters both those who are warmongering nationalists and do so enthusiastically (about 15-20%), as well as those who support whichever course of action the Kremlin chooses (about 60-70%). Many of those will claim they don't support the war when in fact they do if you bother to dig deeper. They'll say "I don't support the war BUT..." and they'll give you one or more of the many nonsensical justifications concocted by the Kremlin - NATO expansion, impending Ukrainian invasion, genocide in Donbas, etc. Basically "I don't want this war but we were forced into it" type of nonsense. Or they'll say that they're against the war but since it's already been started Russia must continue until it wins. I count all of those as supporters of the war and all evidence seems to suggest they make up the majority of your society.
I find this Norwegian news article very interesting. The journalist interviewed normal Russian people about the war and how it is to live in Russia, and what they said is very interesting.
2/3 people said that they are against the war. They don’t notice the war in their daily life, except the lack of tourism and that they can’t talk about politics or the war it in fear of getting punished by the government.
The third person is positive to the war, and is only complaining about the inflation that has happened since the war started, and he/she is from a military family and would join the war if needed.
None of the three wants to come out with their name.
What is interesting to me is that there obviously is hard for Russians to say what they actually want to say without facing harsh consequences. And after reading that article, I feel it’s safe to say that we really don’t know what the Russian people actually feel about the war.
On February 11 2024 06:17 maybenexttime wrote: I doubt that applies to many people.
I know for sure it does, and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) I know 10x more about Russia and personally know 10x or 20x more Russians than you do
Just to be clear, I meant the latter part of the bolded paragraph. Sermokala presented a false dichotomy of Russians either enthusiastically supporting the war or being against it but saying they support it out of fear. As I said earlier, most Russians will go along with whatever the Kremlin decides. If Putin wants to continue the war, they will support the war. If he wants to negotiate peace, they will support peace talks.
While you certainly know more Russians, I'm not sure you know more about Russia. You seem to live in a liberal bubble, completely oblivious to how your society is at large. What you're saying is directly contradicted by Russian sociologists studying the topic (such as Lev Gudkov, the director of Levada Center, 1, 2, 3), most Russian public figures speaking against the war, who admit that the opposition to this war is a minority sentiment, as well as the picture painted by the opposition media such as Verstka, Meduza or iStories.
but it's pretty obvious there's no way to change your mind about this. People who want to think most Russians are bad will think so, there's no changing this now.
You are wrong about that. You think I'm prejudiced towards Russians. I am not. I used to be quite sympathetic towards Russians and Russian culture, if not the Russian state. I studied Russian for three semesters at the uni. I listen to Russian music and read Russian literature (in Russian). If Russia were a normal country, I would've been considered a Russophile.
I used to view Russians as victims of their political system. But the more I learned about the Russian society, the more I interacted with average Russians through social media, internet forums and in real life, the more negative my opinion became. Right now I think most Russians belong in the basket of deplorables, but I would change my opinion if presented evidence to the contrary. The problem is that all evidence I can get my hands on - Russian social media, opposition media, sociological studies, opinion polls conducted both in Russia and abroad, personal interactions, opinions of Russian anti-war public figures, information from my Russian colleagues, testimonies of my Ukrainian friends regarding their interactions with their Russian relatives and friends - all of that paints the exact same picture.
But so far you failed to engage with that. You failed to explain why Russians in Germany or the Netherlands support what Russia is doing. Are they also afraid of some repressions (as a matter of fact, my Russian colleagues are telling me that some Russians here in the Netherlands are afraid to voice their pro-Kremlin sentiments due to fear of ostracism)? Why do most Ukrainians say their Russian relatives mindlessly regurgitate Kremlin talking points in private conversations? If Russians were generally against the war but afraid to speak up, you'd expect to see a stark contrast between what they say publicly in Russia and what they say in private conversations with Ukrainian relatives or opinions polls conducted among the diaspora. But you don't see that.
As far as I understood, Russian living abroad supporting the regime do happen, it just seems crazy anyone would support the current events in whatever way. Even support by omission.
For what I've been able to gather from the son of two Russians living abroad. The parents are mostly responsive to the part of Putin's speech about Russian being treat like second class citizen abroad. Which while it is untrue, as a migrant, you easily can build negative feeling toward your host country if your personal life is not going well. Also, over the years, it is enough to have been victim to one or two case of racism to suddenly feel that there is more than what you notice and there is a seed of truth in Putin's speech. And this is the reason Putin is so dangerous. Racism is dangerous. When we start dividing ourself and think of the other as less of a human, we can't expect the "other" to be happy because we "tolerate" him.
On February 12 2024 18:28 0x64 wrote: The parents are mostly responsive to the part of Putin's speech about Russian being treat like second class citizen abroad. Which while it is untrue...
It's just one case but still. I live and work in Sweden now, and my customer said they really want to offer me employment (I'm a consultant now) because I'm very important to the team and the project. I've been working for them for almost 6 years now.
And still I was told there's a significant chance that they will have to terminate my contract because of my citizenship. Same for my Russian colleague - they really want him but his citizenship might be a problem. Our work has nothing to do with military or government, of course. My direct boss and a few colleagues said they will do everything in their power to not let this happen but it's up to a higher level of management.
I wish I was making this up but this is true. Is it the same as being treated as a second class citizen or not - it's up to everyone's personal opinion. But it still sucks big time as you can imagine.
On February 12 2024 18:28 0x64 wrote: The parents are mostly responsive to the part of Putin's speech about Russian being treat like second class citizen abroad. Which while it is untrue...
It's just one case but still. I live and work in Sweden now, and my customer said they really want to offer me employment (I'm a consultant now) because I'm very important to the team and the project. I've been working for them for almost 6 years now.
And still I was told there's a significant chance that they will have to terminate my contract because of my citizenship. Same for my Russian colleague - they really want him but his citizenship might be a problem. Our work has nothing to do with military or government, of course. My direct boss said he will do everything in his power to not let this happen but it's up to a higher level of management.
I wish I was making this up but this is true. Is it the same as being treated as a second class citizen or not - it's up to everyone's personal opinion. But it still sucks big time as you can imagine.
Well yea that’s the consequences you’re gonna have to deal with when your country invade another country. It’s a way of showing that they don’t agree with what your country is doing. It sucks that people that isn’t involved or agree with what’s happening is affected, but you still represent your country, and it’s up to you and your fellow Russians to make a change. Saying that «I dont agree» and expecting to be treated like you’re not representing your country is pretty blue eyed.
On February 12 2024 18:28 0x64 wrote: The parents are mostly responsive to the part of Putin's speech about Russian being treat like second class citizen abroad. Which while it is untrue...
It's just one case but still. I live and work in Sweden now, and my customer said they really want to offer me employment (I'm a consultant now) because I'm very important to the team and the project. I've been working for them for almost 6 years now.
And still I was told there's a significant chance that they will have to terminate my contract because of my citizenship. Same for my Russian colleague - they really want him but his citizenship might be a problem. Our work has nothing to do with military or government, of course. My direct boss and a few colleagues said they will do everything in their power to not let this happen but it's up to a higher level of management.
I wish I was making this up but this is true. Is it the same as being treated as a second class citizen or not - it's up to everyone's personal opinion. But it still sucks big time as you can imagine.
If you've been a permanent resident in Sweden for 6 years, can't you apply for citizenship? No clue how Sweden works, but most European countries have a way to get naturalized for long-term residents.
On February 12 2024 20:17 Acrofales wrote: If you've been a permanent resident in Sweden for 6 years, can't you apply for citizenship? No clue how Sweden works, but most European countries have a way to get naturalized for long-term residents.
First 4 years I worked remotely, not in Sweden. At some point I plan to get Swedish citizenship - if this will be even possible for me nowadays.
EPT
