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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 576

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 07 2023 13:07 GMT
#11501
--- Nuked ---
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8281 Posts
September 07 2023 13:22 GMT
#11502
On September 07 2023 22:07 JimmiC wrote:
This article talks about how the Russian defences of mine fields and trenches were very good, then he goes on to talk about how the dragons teeth were completely useless. How exactly were they designed to stop tanks? They do seem really easy to avoid, or completely useless as this guy describes.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russias-infamous-dragons-teeth-defenses-105548192.html


The details are kinda vague, so I'm not sure why exactly the pyramids aren't working. On paper, they absolutely should. Tanks can't just waltz over them. This is why you see dragon's teeth (Or a variation of) at pretty much any military base or control point in the world. But there's every chance Russia isn't using them correctly, doesn't have enough of them, or aren't capable of defending them. They are easily removed whilst not under fire. The whole point is that you need to stop and hoist them out of the way before you can proceed. It's a bit like barbed wire for stopping infantry; unprotected, it does nothing
zatic
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Zurich15366 Posts
September 07 2023 13:32 GMT
#11503
On September 07 2023 22:22 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2023 22:07 JimmiC wrote:
This article talks about how the Russian defences of mine fields and trenches were very good, then he goes on to talk about how the dragons teeth were completely useless. How exactly were they designed to stop tanks? They do seem really easy to avoid, or completely useless as this guy describes.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russias-infamous-dragons-teeth-defenses-105548192.html


The details are kinda vague, so I'm not sure why exactly the pyramids aren't working. On paper, they absolutely should. Tanks can't just waltz over them. This is why you see dragon's teeth (Or a variation of) at pretty much any military base or control point in the world. But there's every chance Russia isn't using them correctly, doesn't have enough of them, or aren't capable of defending them. They are easily removed whilst not under fire. The whole point is that you need to stop and hoist them out of the way before you can proceed. It's a bit like barbed wire for stopping infantry; unprotected, it does nothing

They don't work because you need multiple rows tightly packed build on top of a continuous concrete foundation. Otherwise a bulldozer can simply push them away - or a tank with a bulldozer blade attached. Or a few rounds of high explosives.

Here in Switzerland the countryside is full of Toblerone lines ready to stop the inevitable German panzer invasion. But they are placed in continuous, buried ~10mx4m concrete segments.
ModeratorI know Teamliquid is known as a massive building
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
September 07 2023 14:05 GMT
#11504
Makes sense. Hopefully many of the dragon teeth are ineffectual. But there may be one consideration, which is that dragon's teeth don't necessarily have to stop tank movement if they can redirect them into mines. I'm sure the AFU expects sneaky tricks like that and tests the defenses accordingly.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 07 2023 15:05 GMT
#11505
--- Nuked ---
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27478 Posts
September 07 2023 16:29 GMT
#11506
On September 07 2023 19:40 Excludos wrote:
What the fuck is wrong with some people? Are you really this fucking deranged? You need help

Apparently so. And I mean I’m diagnostically deranged and this modern trend of ‘being as wrong as possible on a political issue as a personality’ still baffles me
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
TL+ Member
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4769 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-07 17:31:46
September 07 2023 17:31 GMT
#11507
Wasn't Excludos commenting about the post that got nuked by the "brilliantly named user"? Or that was You on an alter?
Pathetic Greta hater.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27478 Posts
September 07 2023 17:40 GMT
#11508
On September 08 2023 02:31 Silvanel wrote:
Wasn't Excludos commenting about the post that got nuked by the "brilliantly named user"? Or that was You on an alter?

I assume but I mean it’s hardly a small field of lunatics.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
TL+ Member
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8281 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-07 18:23:55
September 07 2023 18:22 GMT
#11509
Yes. The guy was trying to turn the thread into liveleak with closeup gory photos of dead Ukrainian soldiers, while calling them pigs
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-07 20:39:42
September 07 2023 18:57 GMT
#11510
On September 08 2023 03:22 Excludos wrote:
Yes. The guy was trying to turn the thread into liveleak with closeup gory photos of dead Ukrainian soldiers, while calling them pigs

I assume you never went on Ukrainian Telegram/Facebook/thematical forums or Russian Telegram/Vkontakte/thematical forums. There is plenty of this stuff from both sides.

On September 07 2023 03:04 Sent. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2023 01:07 Ardias wrote:
Kharkov (or to be mo exact, frontline from Siverskiy Donets to Balakleya) was thin by the end of summer 2022. We even discussed it here with my take that 35th Combined Arms Army was pulled to the Vostok-2022 exercise, and Manit0u's opinion was that it was moved to support defence of Kherson (actually here he was right, at least 35th CAA in particular was indeed confirmed in Kherson later on).
My longpost on the matter back then
https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=27987508

As for judging the knowledge of the person based on accuracy of his past prognosis, suggested above - I recall you predicting collapse of Russian military in 5-6 months during Kharkov offensive, as well as Kwark predicting 2nd battle of Mariupol by the end of 2022. Should that disqualify your opinions from the discussion?

But it's interesting idea, lets roll with it. I encourage people here to write down their prediction of the events, lets say, a year from now. Will use it as a time bottle. I'll write mine down a bit later, as I'm ending my worktime atm.


Ehh, I'm not sure I feel confident making any predcitions now. When the Russian army was still outside of Kyiv, and even for some time after that, I was convinced that Russia will continue making large gains in the eastern part of the country and sooner or later Ukraine might either collapse or be forced to give up its whole eastern half. After learning how little I knew about both sides I undrestood it's pointless to make big predictions.

I can say I think it's possible that Ukraine retakes Tokmak before the end of this year but I wouldn't bet on that because it's at best like 50-60% chance in my opinion. I also think Ukraine can reach the Black Sea in Zaporizhzhia in 2024, but I don't feel confident predicting it will or will not happen or even say there's X% chance it will happen.

I believe Ukraine is more likely, maybe even much more likely to make some significant gains before the war ends, but I'm aware I could be completely wrong. If Russians believe they can occupy Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in 2024, I woudln't say it's ridiculous to think that's possible.


Fair enough.
Interesting thing is that we will have elections for all major parties in conflict - Russia, USA and, supposedly, Ukraine (if they will be willing to) - in 2024. That throws a lot of big "ifs" into the war question.
But political matters aside - I'll stand by my previous claim, that there will be no grand shifts on the front within a year, at least, not in terms of military perspective. Currently the shield is stronger, than a sword, and it seem to work both ways. So I would agree with your estimate, and put "reaching the Azov Sea" as Ukraine's victory in coming year's campaign, and taking major part of Donetsk and Lugansk regions - as Russia's victory in the same timeframe.

Also:

On the matter of Challenger destroyed. Overall, in terms of tanks in general, I highly recommend the guy.
Also it wasn't a big news in Russian internet media. People there got used to NATO stuff being blown up. First Leopard and Bradley were news. Chally wasn't.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-07 20:41:52
September 07 2023 19:11 GMT
#11511
On September 06 2023 14:17 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2023 14:03 Ardias wrote:
On September 06 2023 11:58 JimmiC wrote:
It is pretty shocking that it took this long for the first one to get destroyed! Top end russian stuff is getting destroyed everyday. It’s impressive that it makes news that just one is finally destroyed!

There are only 14 Challys, all of them belonging to tank company of 82nd Airborne brigade, which was deployed to the frontline only couple of weeks ago. There was even Forbes article about it.

@Kwark - it was not exactly the opinion of western media before the offensive, including Royal Armoured Corps former members:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/09/british-made-tanks-about-to-sweep-putins-conscripts-aside/
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-battle-tanks-russia-spring-counteroffensive-abrams-leopards-challengers-1799378

A couple of weeks still isn’t bad to only lose one, and equipment losses are expected.

I was reading a few weeks ago that one of the biggest differences between the Russian design and “western” is that the west put a lot of concern of the Troops survival and a lot of the engineering and design is around this. One of the examples was the tank crews how they automatic loaders in the Russian tanks cause the turrets to blow off and kill the crew often in combat and the western design have one more crewman but do a much better job of keeping them alive.

It sucks to lose any piece of equipment, but it is going to happen. If the tank kept the crew alive, then good for it.

It's a bit more complicated.
First of all, if we talk about late Cold War era (1970-1989) - yes, there was quite a difference between the tank school of thought, mainly that Soviets had an autoloader, and Western tanks (to be more precise - US, British, German and Italian) hadn't.
But that didn't happen because Soviets simply didn't care about the loss of crews. There were couple of reasons to this.
1. Soviet school of thought at time was - "the smaller is the target, the harder it is to hit". Since the accuracy of targeting equipment and precision weapons was much lower back then, than it is now, this kind of thought had some merit.
2. Western tanks were designed to operate on well-developed road network of Germany, which was supposed to be a main battleground for WW3. Couple of dozens tons of additional weight weren't that much of an issue there.
Soviet tanks were designed to be able to be moved and transported via all road and railroad network of Soviet Union, which had less of a capacity than West Germany had (many Russian bridges still have 50 ton limit). Hence they were forced to maintain weight below 50 tons, but to retain combat capabilities similar to the Western tanks. Hence Soviet engineers were forced to find a solution (besides cramped accomodation, the reason why in USSR you were recruited to be a tanker only if you were shorter than 175 cm), and they found it in autoloader.

And in terms of autloaders' inferiority, there is a question to be answered - why all new Western tanks developed after Cold War, actually have an autoloader instead of 4th crew member (Leclerc, K2, Type 10)? Because current Leopards, Abrams' and Challys are still a deep upgrades of 1970-1980 designs, they aren't some brand new models.

Mess with the best or die like the rest.
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5914 Posts
September 07 2023 19:17 GMT
#11512
On September 08 2023 03:57 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 08 2023 03:22 Excludos wrote:
Yes. The guy was trying to turn the thread into liveleak with closeup gory photos of dead Ukrainian soldiers, while calling them pigs

I assume you never went on Ukrainian Telegram/Facebook/thematical forums or Russian Telegram/Vkontakte/thematical forums. There is plenty of this stuff from both sides.

One side is trying to cope with a neighboring country committing a genocide on them. The other side is enjoying the genocide being committed. Kindly fuck off with the both sides bullshit.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22705 Posts
September 07 2023 19:21 GMT
#11513
I don't think the side posting images of dead people is relevant. Be it Russian or Ukrainian. Either way they don't belong on this site.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5914 Posts
September 07 2023 19:33 GMT
#11514
On September 08 2023 04:21 Gorsameth wrote:
I don't think the side posting images of dead people is relevant. Be it Russian or Ukrainian. Either way they don't belong on this site.

Nobody's arguing that. I'm simply saying that some Ukrainians enjoying seeing genocidal fascists die is not the same as those fascists enjoying seeing their victims die.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 07 2023 19:45 GMT
#11515
So it seems Social media was right and that geolocation was right on the money. A Russian drone blew up inside their border, despite the PM earlier claims.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 07 2023 20:09 GMT
#11516
--- Nuked ---
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
September 07 2023 21:32 GMT
#11517
On September 07 2023 22:22 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2023 22:07 JimmiC wrote:
This article talks about how the Russian defences of mine fields and trenches were very good, then he goes on to talk about how the dragons teeth were completely useless. How exactly were they designed to stop tanks? They do seem really easy to avoid, or completely useless as this guy describes.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russias-infamous-dragons-teeth-defenses-105548192.html


The details are kinda vague, so I'm not sure why exactly the pyramids aren't working. On paper, they absolutely should. Tanks can't just waltz over them. This is why you see dragon's teeth (Or a variation of) at pretty much any military base or control point in the world. But there's every chance Russia isn't using them correctly, doesn't have enough of them, or aren't capable of defending them. They are easily removed whilst not under fire. The whole point is that you need to stop and hoist them out of the way before you can proceed. It's a bit like barbed wire for stopping infantry; unprotected, it does nothing

The Russian dragon teeth are more like some Kremlin-favored concrete salesman who sold concrete pyramids to the ministry of defense for loads of cash. If you look at actual engineered defensive lines they have a whole connected underground foundation of concrete and the teeth are merely the tip of the iceberg so to speak.

To be fair, of course Ukraine is huge and can you build a complete foundation everywhere, probably not. And the Russian pyramids will stop a Humvee from rushing past it fast. But anything with power can just push them away if not contested.

[image loading]
Neosteel Enthusiast
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
September 08 2023 05:24 GMT
#11518
People for some reason think that Russian dragon teeth are always placed alone in the field. In which case yeah, they don't do much.
However combined with minefields, anti-tank moats, drones, artillery and anti-tank positions they make for a good obstacle for limiting maneuver. Even if engineering tanks shove them away - they still create a chokepoint through other mass of vehicles have to move through, which is not a fun thing to do under artillery fire (especially if there are mines right after the teeth themselves).
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
0x64
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Finland4659 Posts
September 08 2023 06:46 GMT
#11519
On September 08 2023 05:09 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 08 2023 04:11 Ardias wrote:
On September 06 2023 14:17 JimmiC wrote:
On September 06 2023 14:03 Ardias wrote:
On September 06 2023 11:58 JimmiC wrote:
It is pretty shocking that it took this long for the first one to get destroyed! Top end russian stuff is getting destroyed everyday. It’s impressive that it makes news that just one is finally destroyed!

There are only 14 Challys, all of them belonging to tank company of 82nd Airborne brigade, which was deployed to the frontline only couple of weeks ago. There was even Forbes article about it.

@Kwark - it was not exactly the opinion of western media before the offensive, including Royal Armoured Corps former members:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/09/british-made-tanks-about-to-sweep-putins-conscripts-aside/
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-battle-tanks-russia-spring-counteroffensive-abrams-leopards-challengers-1799378

A couple of weeks still isn’t bad to only lose one, and equipment losses are expected.

I was reading a few weeks ago that one of the biggest differences between the Russian design and “western” is that the west put a lot of concern of the Troops survival and a lot of the engineering and design is around this. One of the examples was the tank crews how they automatic loaders in the Russian tanks cause the turrets to blow off and kill the crew often in combat and the western design have one more crewman but do a much better job of keeping them alive.

It sucks to lose any piece of equipment, but it is going to happen. If the tank kept the crew alive, then good for it.

It's a bit more complicated.
First of all, if we talk about late Cold War era (1970-1989) - yes, there was quite a difference between the tank school of thought, mainly that Soviets had an autoloader, and Western tanks (to be more precise - US, British, German and Italian) hadn't.
But that didn't happen because Soviets simply didn't care about the loss of crews. There were couple of reasons to this.
1. Soviet school of thought at time was - "the smaller is the target, the harder it is to hit". Since the accuracy of targeting equipment and precision weapons was much lower back then, than it is now, this kind of thought had some merit.
2. Western tanks were designed to operate on well-developed road network of Germany, which was supposed to be a main battleground for WW3. Couple of dozens tons of additional weight weren't that much of an issue there.
Soviet tanks were designed to be able to be moved and transported via all road and railroad network of Soviet Union, which had less of a capacity than West Germany had (many Russian bridges still have 50 ton limit). Hence they were forced to maintain weight below 50 tons, but to retain combat capabilities similar to the Western tanks. Hence Soviet engineers were forced to fine a solution (besides cramped accomodation, the reason while in USSR you were recruited to be a tanker only if you were shorter than 175 cm), and they found it in autoloader.

And in terms of autloaders' inferiority, there is a question to be answered - why all new Western tanks developed after Cold War, actually have an autoloader instead of 4th crew member (Leclerc, K2, Type 10)? Because current Leopards, Abrams' and Challys are still a deep upgrades of 1970-1980 designs, they aren't some brand new models.


Thanks for the info.

Earlier you asked for people predictions and I did not have time. I do not consider myself an expert in anyway shape or form on this at all, but I thought I would do it purely for fun. Just keep in mind my confidence level is so low I would not bet on basically any of these even if given favorable odds. This whole situation is so unpredictable.

-F16's show up and they make a difference but not immediately dramatic. Ukraine is better able to continue their slow push with more equal air power

-Bahkmut is taken back by Ukraine and they move far enough part it that it is no longer a discussion point

-At least one of Melitopol, Berdiask, Mariupol will be at least under intense fighting if not taken.

-The Ukrainian sea drones will continue to hit targets, Ukraine will be able to send out grain shipments by sea.

- ATACMS will be sent to Ukraine and along with their self developed missiles they will be able to strike ammo depots and supply lines further back including in Russia. There will be a week or so of big news and lots of pictures until Russia adjusts.

-other newer and better weapons will be approved and sent to Ukraine

- Sergey Surovikin will somehow die

- Gerasimov or Shoigu will be scapegoated for the failure in Ukraine and end up in jail or dead, but at least demoted

- Wagner is not done, something major will come from them. Either coup, assassination, rebellion, something very news worthy that is not just talk.

-Kerch bridge will be attacked more and even more severely damaged. maybe even completely destroyed.

- The drum beat for peace will be even louder with many suggesting that Crimean become permanently Russian and the rest go back to Ukraine. Both of the combatants will be strongly against the proposal.




F16, I agree
Bahkmut, it will be called a tactical retreat.
Major city falling will just be a part of the front line progressing, things will pick up pace if the Dnipro is successfully crossed, which is a major pain in the ass.
New and better weapons, who knows, I think quantity over quality... Bring them drones :D
Surovikin good as dead indeed.
The reason Shoigu is still in place is indeed to act as the final scapegoat.
Wagner is indeed not done, you do not fuck over 5000 mercenary without consequences or at least you end up with a new organized crime problem.
Kerch bridge too big of a target to defend. But it is probably better for Ukraine to attack it once it is repaired than collapsing it totally.
Crimea may go for a third option for peace, which would be to create something independent, but I see this almost impossible, because independent would only mean controlled by Russia.


Dump of assembler code from 0xffffffec to 0x64: End of assembler dump.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-08 16:58:05
September 08 2023 16:52 GMT
#11520
On September 06 2023 00:44 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
One would think Cuba would considered this to be a severe violation of not only its rights as a nation, but maybe even some treaties it has with Russia? Also will they arrest any ethnic Russians that were part of this that reside in Cuba, I'd imagine Cubans would demand answers as to why or why not...



Show nested quote +
HAVANA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Cuba has uncovered a human trafficking ring that coerced its citizens to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, its foreign ministry said, adding that Cuban authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network.

The statement from Cuba's foreign ministry late on Monday gave few details, but noted the trafficking ring was operating both within the Caribbean island nation, thousands of miles from Moscow, and in Russia.

"The Ministry of the Interior... is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine," the Cuban government statement said.

Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Russia last year announced a plan to boost the size of its armed forces by more than 30% to 1.5 million combat personnel, a lofty goal made harder by its heavy but undisclosed casualties in the war.

In late May, a Russia newspaper in Ryazan city reported that several Cuban citizens had signed contracts with Russia's armed forces and had been shipped to Ukraine in return for Russian citizenship.

It was not immediately clear if the Cuban foreign ministry statement was associated with the Ryazan report.

Russia, which has strong political ties with communist-run Cuba, has long been an important destination for Cuban migrants seeking to escape economic stagnation at home.

The defense ministers of Cuba and Russia earlier this year discussed the development of joint "technical military" projects at a meeting in Moscow. But the administration of Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel denies any involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

"Cuba is not part of the war in Ukraine," the foreign ministry said late on Monday. "(Cuba) is acting and will act energetically against anyone... who participates in any form of human trafficking for the purpose of recruitment of Cuban citizens as mercenaries to use arms against any country."

Cuba said it had already begun prosecuting cases in which its citizens had been coerced into fighting in Ukraine.

"Attempts of this nature have been neutralized and criminal proceedings have been initiated against people involved in these activities," the statement read.


Source



An update to this as Cuba has announced the arrest of 17 people involved in trafficking Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine. No mention of the nationality's of those arrested, or if any Cubans have actually been killed in fighting the war.

HAVANA, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Cuban authorities said they had arrested 17 people on charges related to a ring of human traffickers that allegedly lured young Cuban men to serve in the Russian military amid the Ukraine conflict.

Cuba earlier this week revealed authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network, which it said operated both on Cuban soil and in Russia.

"As a result of the investigations, 17 people have been arrested so far, among them the internal organizer of these activities," Cesar Rodriguez, a colonel with Cuba´s interior ministry, said late on Thursday on a TV program.

Rodriguez did not name any of those accused of participating in the ring, but said the group´s leader relied on two people residing on the island to recruit Cubans to fight for hire on behalf of Russia in Ukraine.

Prosecutor Jose Luis Reyes said those involved in the scandal could be punished with up to 30 years in prison, a life sentence or the death penalty, depending on the severity and type of crimes, which range from human trafficking, fighting as a mercenary and hostile action against a foreign state.

Russia, which has strong political ties with communist-run Cuba, has long been an important destination for Cuban migrants seeking to escape economic stagnation at home.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last year signed a decree allowing foreigners signing up for service in the Russian army to receive citizenship via a fast-track procedure.

Cuba says it has no part in the war in Ukraine, and that it rejects the use of its citizens as mercenaries.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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