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On August 24 2023 18:09 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2023 16:40 justanothertownie wrote:On August 24 2023 16:23 zeo wrote:
The top of the Russian state had no reason to kill Prigozhin and the leadership of Wagner. First sentence and you are already in crazy land. Of course there is - Prigozhin openly challenged Putin and made him look weak. That is something a dictator cannot allow to go unpunished under any circumstances. There is a reason everyone with a brain was predicting this. Everyone huffing on propaganda and cope aimed at the lowest common denominator you mean. People don't like to think, they like simple things they can understand like cartoon villans and capeshit movies. Wagner was disarmed and taken down more than a few notches from a few months ago when they burried the Ukrainian army at Bahmut. Litterally a non factor in Ukraine and moved on to Africa and training the Belarussian army. There are more people that can profit from internal strife something like this can cause in Russia than Russia itself. I am actually most fascinated by the fact that Russia is still at war, that is, it has not been thoroughly cleaned out of Ukraine. I have never seen a country that goes into an expeditionary war (and that is a very demanding and complex undertaking) experience so much internal turmoil and reckoning, plus blows from the outside, and manage to maintain itself on the front. No one alive can say who is in favor and who is in disgrace, which general has been dismissed and who is in office, who has a bright career ahead and who will fall out of the window tomorrow, who has been removed by the FSB and who has been removed by the SBU and MI6. The number of factions in the Kremlin, Defence Ministary, the military and various paramilitary groups isnt known. The bullshit literally never ends. But they're holding out on the battlefield and beating back most of the richest countries on the planet and their proxy. Really goes to show you how incompetent and useless most of the political and military leadership in the West is if they are getting clowned on by these guys. The counteroffencive has been a monumental debacle, changing the news cycle for a few days will do little. We will come back to reality eventualy
This post has to be the most coping post that ever coped. Congrats.
Edit: Saw the call for stopping one liners too late. Will stop but that ironic acccusation was too much. You can really always tell what the Russian shills are going through by looking at what they accuse others of.
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It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia.
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On August 25 2023 03:32 Mikau wrote:
It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia.
Bro, you call people like us batshit insane, but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here.
Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward."
Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane, I understand it as; those who control the material means of production, control the mental means of production, as Karl Marx wrote over 150 years ago:
More than a century ago Karl Marx observed that those who control the material means of production also control the mental means of production. So in every epoch the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class. Indeed, it seems so today. Viewpoints supported by money have no trouble gaining mass exposure and sympathetic media treatment, while those offensive to moneyed interests languish either for want of the costly sums needed to reach a vast public or because of the prohibitions exercised by media owners and management. In a word, the mass media are a class-dominated media-- bound by the parameters of ownership in a capitalist society.
(Inventing Reality, Michael Parenti)
https://archive.org/details/michael-parenti-inventing-reality-the-politics-of-the-mass-media-1986-st.-martins-press_202012
Now all that being said, I haven't read every post in here since my last one, so I'm posting this bit of information as "new" but the NYT and The Guardian are casting doubt on the death of Preghozin:
Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says.
The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/europe/us-prigozhin-plane-crash.html
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced
Andrew Roth
Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convinced
So, like I said, could have been anything, he could still be alive, according to the mainstream media, and we also may never know, could be a Tupac in Cuba or Hitler in Argentina type thing, where it just becomes a legend/myth.
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United States43672 Posts
You can't fight for your sovereignty in someone else's country.
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On August 25 2023 06:21 KwarK wrote:
You can't fight for your sovereignty in someone else's country.
If Russia were doing in Mexico or Canada what the US did in Ukraine, you better believe the US government would be even harsher in it's response.
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NATO hasn't made a move eastward. Countries east of NATO have begged to join, because joining NATO is the only protection against Russian aggression. As proven by this very invasion.
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On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 03:32 Mikau wrote:
It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia. Bro, you call people like us batshit insane, but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here. Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward." Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane, I understand it as; those who control the material means of production, control the mental means of production, as Karl Marx wrote over 150 years ago: Show nested quote +
More than a century ago Karl Marx observed that those who control the material means of production also control the mental means of production. So in every epoch the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class. Indeed, it seems so today. Viewpoints supported by money have no trouble gaining mass exposure and sympathetic media treatment, while those offensive to moneyed interests languish either for want of the costly sums needed to reach a vast public or because of the prohibitions exercised by media owners and management. In a word, the mass media are a class-dominated media-- bound by the parameters of ownership in a capitalist society.
(Inventing Reality, Michael Parenti) https://archive.org/details/michael-parenti-inventing-reality-the-politics-of-the-mass-media-1986-st.-martins-press_202012Now all that being said, I haven't read every post in here since my last one, so I'm posting this bit of information as "new" but the NYT and The Guardian are casting doubt on the death of Preghozin: Show nested quote +Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says.
The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/europe/us-prigozhin-plane-crash.htmlShow nested quote +
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced
Andrew Roth
Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convincedSo, like I said, could have been anything, he could still be alive, according to the mainstream media, and we also may never know, could be a Tupac in Cuba or Hitler in Argentina type thing, where it just becomes a legend/myth.
Repeating long-debunked lies won't suddenly make them true. NATO didn't make any such promises.
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On August 25 2023 06:29 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 03:32 Mikau wrote:
It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia. Bro, you call people like us batshit insane, but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here. Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward." Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane, I understand it as; those who control the material means of production, control the mental means of production, as Karl Marx wrote over 150 years ago:
More than a century ago Karl Marx observed that those who control the material means of production also control the mental means of production. So in every epoch the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class. Indeed, it seems so today. Viewpoints supported by money have no trouble gaining mass exposure and sympathetic media treatment, while those offensive to moneyed interests languish either for want of the costly sums needed to reach a vast public or because of the prohibitions exercised by media owners and management. In a word, the mass media are a class-dominated media-- bound by the parameters of ownership in a capitalist society.
(Inventing Reality, Michael Parenti) https://archive.org/details/michael-parenti-inventing-reality-the-politics-of-the-mass-media-1986-st.-martins-press_202012Now all that being said, I haven't read every post in here since my last one, so I'm posting this bit of information as "new" but the NYT and The Guardian are casting doubt on the death of Preghozin: Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says.
The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/europe/us-prigozhin-plane-crash.html
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced
Andrew Roth
Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convincedSo, like I said, could have been anything, he could still be alive, according to the mainstream media, and we also may never know, could be a Tupac in Cuba or Hitler in Argentina type thing, where it just becomes a legend/myth. Repeating long-debunked lies won't suddenly make them true. NATO didn't make any such promises.
Op-Ed: Russia’s got a point: The U.S. broke a NATO promise
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html
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On August 25 2023 06:22 captainwaffles wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:21 KwarK wrote:
You can't fight for your sovereignty in someone else's country. If Russia were doing in Mexico or Canada what the US did in Ukraine, you better believe the US government would be even harsher in it's response.
Because I'm dumb, I'll bite on your insane conspiracy theories. What did the US do in Ukraine, exactly? Other than support them?
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On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:
Bro, you call people like us batshit insane
And he is generous for calling you that, I have much stronger terms to describe your attitude, and none is in vocabulary of civilized people.
On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:
but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here.
Spare us your popular voice falacy.
On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:
Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward."
Well, congratulation than, "geniuses", NATO expanded even more into the formaly uninterested countries thanks to your aggresion, and militarists in coutries like Poland have strong points to rearming because its not safe to be near the complete maniacs.
On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:
Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane
Oh, your so generous. Please, do it pernamently.
If anyone wants to play it against me - yes, it was very hostile post from my side.
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On August 25 2023 06:36 captainwaffles wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:29 maybenexttime wrote:On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 03:32 Mikau wrote:
It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia. Bro, you call people like us batshit insane, but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here. Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward." Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane, I understand it as; those who control the material means of production, control the mental means of production, as Karl Marx wrote over 150 years ago:
More than a century ago Karl Marx observed that those who control the material means of production also control the mental means of production. So in every epoch the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class. Indeed, it seems so today. Viewpoints supported by money have no trouble gaining mass exposure and sympathetic media treatment, while those offensive to moneyed interests languish either for want of the costly sums needed to reach a vast public or because of the prohibitions exercised by media owners and management. In a word, the mass media are a class-dominated media-- bound by the parameters of ownership in a capitalist society.
(Inventing Reality, Michael Parenti) https://archive.org/details/michael-parenti-inventing-reality-the-politics-of-the-mass-media-1986-st.-martins-press_202012Now all that being said, I haven't read every post in here since my last one, so I'm posting this bit of information as "new" but the NYT and The Guardian are casting doubt on the death of Preghozin: Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says.
The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/europe/us-prigozhin-plane-crash.html
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced
Andrew Roth
Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convincedSo, like I said, could have been anything, he could still be alive, according to the mainstream media, and we also may never know, could be a Tupac in Cuba or Hitler in Argentina type thing, where it just becomes a legend/myth. Repeating long-debunked lies won't suddenly make them true. NATO didn't make any such promises. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html
You're using an op ed, which is weak. However, even in your own op-ed evidence, it states:
They claim the United States has failed to uphold a promise that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, a deal made during the 1990 negotiations between the West and the Soviet Union over German unification. In this view, Russia is being forced to forestall NATO’s eastward march as a matter of self-defense.
The West has vigorously protested that no such deal was ever struck. However, hundreds of memos, meeting minutes and transcripts from U.S. archives indicate otherwise.
So there were discussions, but no deal was ever struck. So no, the west did not guarantee that it would not move closer.
And the funny thing is, even if they did, Russia is still the aggressor invading a foreign country. They're still 100% in the wrong. Yet even the cover you're trying to provide for them (which still makes them 100% wrong) is wrong.
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On August 25 2023 06:40 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:22 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 06:21 KwarK wrote:
You can't fight for your sovereignty in someone else's country. If Russia were doing in Mexico or Canada what the US did in Ukraine, you better believe the US government would be even harsher in it's response. Because I'm dumb, I'll bite on your insane conspiracy theories. What did the US do in Ukraine, exactly? Other than support them?
the CIA has been in Ukraine since the end of WWII:
CIA Intervention in Ukraine Has Been Taking Place for Decades
https://shadowproof.com/2014/08/09/cia-intervention-in-ukraine-has-been-taking-place-for-decades/
More recently though, the 2014 Maidan Coup:
It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war
The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict
Note the date on that article, about 2 months after the coup: Wed 30 Apr 2014
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The real irony is that if Ukraine had gone through with their initial plans to join NATO, this invasion wouldn't have happened, clearly showing that not joining NATO is a mistake for any country around Russia who wants to keep their sovereignty
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And..? CIA being in a country is grounds to invade it now? Hell, Russia should invade itself if that's the case. Would save us all a lot of headache.
I love these "smoking guns" of yours, that in no way actually absolves Russia of their criminal invasion. Next up you're going to link me an article claiming Zelenskyy likes pineapple on pizza as grounds for legal invasion
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On August 25 2023 06:45 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:36 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 06:29 maybenexttime wrote:On August 25 2023 06:13 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 03:32 Mikau wrote:
It's also uncanny how he integrates what others say to him in his own posts.
For a while he got called out for logical fallacies, so he started accusing everything somebody said to him of being a logical fallacy. Then came the point where everything Ukraine does are "war crimes" and "terrorism", or he started accusing Ukraine of "indiscriminate constant shelling of civilians, shooting of prisoners and the bombing of dams." It seems that the recent word he learned from other posters here is "projection".
I swear, it's almost like talking to Zeo is like talking to an AI, which on one end gets fed Russian propaganda and on the other end learns to phrase that propaganda with words and phrases the rest of TL (bar captainwaffles, who if anything is more batshit insane) uses against him and/or about Russia. Bro, you call people like us batshit insane, but look at the world, look at the amount of the human population that is with Russia against NATO in this conflict. Factor all of that in, and you quickly become the minority here. Remember, from our point of view, Russia is fighting for it's sovereignty against a NATO that has expanded east since the fall of the USSR, despite promises made to Russia that NATO "would not expand one inch eastward." Now, even though I've removed myself from the Western media bubble, I still don't think y'all are batshit insane, I understand it as; those who control the material means of production, control the mental means of production, as Karl Marx wrote over 150 years ago:
More than a century ago Karl Marx observed that those who control the material means of production also control the mental means of production. So in every epoch the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class. Indeed, it seems so today. Viewpoints supported by money have no trouble gaining mass exposure and sympathetic media treatment, while those offensive to moneyed interests languish either for want of the costly sums needed to reach a vast public or because of the prohibitions exercised by media owners and management. In a word, the mass media are a class-dominated media-- bound by the parameters of ownership in a capitalist society.
(Inventing Reality, Michael Parenti) https://archive.org/details/michael-parenti-inventing-reality-the-politics-of-the-mass-media-1986-st.-martins-press_202012Now all that being said, I haven't read every post in here since my last one, so I'm posting this bit of information as "new" but the NYT and The Guardian are casting doubt on the death of Preghozin: Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says.
The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/world/europe/us-prigozhin-plane-crash.html
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced
Andrew Roth
Alternative theories abound, fuelled by his reappearance after being reported killed in a 2019 plane crash in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convincedSo, like I said, could have been anything, he could still be alive, according to the mainstream media, and we also may never know, could be a Tupac in Cuba or Hitler in Argentina type thing, where it just becomes a legend/myth. Repeating long-debunked lies won't suddenly make them true. NATO didn't make any such promises. Op-Ed: Russia’s got a point: The U.S. broke a NATO promise https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html You're using an op ed, which is weak. However, even in your own op-ed evidence, it states: Show nested quote +They claim the United States has failed to uphold a promise that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, a deal made during the 1990 negotiations between the West and the Soviet Union over German unification. In this view, Russia is being forced to forestall NATO’s eastward march as a matter of self-defense.
The West has vigorously protested that no such deal was ever struck. However, hundreds of memos, meeting minutes and transcripts from U.S. archives indicate otherwise. So there were discussions, but no deal was ever struck. So no, the west did not guarantee that it would not move closer. And the funny thing is, even if they did, Russia is still the aggressor invading a foreign country. They're still 100% in the wrong. Yet even the cover you're trying to provide for them (which still makes them 100% wrong) is wrong.
Right, the deal wasn't formal, but there were, in your quote, *hundreds of memos indicating otherwise*
You want to say the Russians were stupid for trusting the West on that? I kind of agree tbh. But the world was a different place back then, the word of the US carried a lot more weight in the 90's than it does now.
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On August 25 2023 06:52 captainwaffles wrote:
the CIA has been in Ukraine since the end of WWII
Funny. I thought it was USSR.
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Russia is funding opposition parties throughout Europe and the US. One could certainly argue that they succeeded in some cases like Hungary.
Yet NATO has not invaded any of them.
Shocking how the problem seems to be Russia and no one else.
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On August 25 2023 06:56 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 06:52 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 06:40 Excludos wrote:On August 25 2023 06:22 captainwaffles wrote:On August 25 2023 06:21 KwarK wrote:
You can't fight for your sovereignty in someone else's country. If Russia were doing in Mexico or Canada what the US did in Ukraine, you better believe the US government would be even harsher in it's response. Because I'm dumb, I'll bite on your insane conspiracy theories. What did the US do in Ukraine, exactly? Other than support them? the CIA has been in Ukraine since the end of WWII: CIA Intervention in Ukraine Has Been Taking Place for Decades https://shadowproof.com/2014/08/09/cia-intervention-in-ukraine-has-been-taking-place-for-decades/More recently though, the 2014 Maidan Coup: It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war
The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflictNote the date on that article, about 2 months after the coup: Wed 30 Apr 2014 Russia is funding opposition parties throughout Europe and the US. One could certainly argue that they succeeded in some cases like Hungary. Yet NATO has not invaded any of them. Shocking how the problem seems to be Russia and no one else.
Oh come'on. CIA did some coups too, and their politics towards Cuba are and were wrongful.
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Russian Federation617 Posts
On August 23 2023 18:16 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2023 18:12 Silvanel wrote:
@Magic Powers
Not exactly. During recent invasion Russia disregarded its own doctrine of fighting smaller countries (they shuld have ammassed 4 times the troops they used in first push). They are still fightining undermanned according to their own war handbooks. Which is very strange and indicates that policy concerns are trumping over military ones. Have they acted according to their own doctrine things might be very different but they didn't.
Russian leadership is apparently fine driving their countrys industry and economy into the ground, throwing away lives and stockpiles of ammo and equipment inherited from the Soviet Union. Their political infulance in Central Asia and Caucasus is also suffering as a result. They dont mind as long they stay in power.
Where do you have the information from about the true number of all pro-Russian troops that were stationed in Ukraine in the first days as part of the offensive?
Here.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/18/russia-has-amassed-up-to-190000-troops-on-ukraine-borders-us-warns
Add to that 34000 LDPR troops (according to Military Balance 2021)
https://imgur.com/9dLf2i0
But let's do the actual head count for both sides, as this topic is rarely brought up in discussion. I will try to use sources that speak about their own forces, and not about the enemy, as there are less bias presented in that (i.e Western/Ukrainian for Ukraine, Russian - for Russia). Sometimes I would have to include estimations, which I will be pointing out. Would divide into two parts, since there is a wall of text.
Russia:
+ Show Spoiler +So, for Russia - as I've mentioned earlier, for Russia+LDPR it is around 215 000 on Day 1. That's Army+Rosgvardia forces amassed already on the borders. While Russia in first month or two was denying the recruitment (I mentioned that in this post https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=27940267 ) in LDPR mobilization was at large. Overall around 80 thousand men were mobilized there. https://ria.ru/20230602/mobilizatsiya-1875679982.htmlArticle has a mistake though, saying they were mobilized in autumn, while it was, in fact, by autumn. In autumn, as Russian mobilized flew in, LDPR made a partial de-mobilization. https://lenta.ru/news/2022/11/18/demoboliz/Meanwhile Russia was also increasing their forces, from two sources: - 1st: Throwing in units, previously not taking part in the war. To understand, how much Russia could actually throw in without recruitment, I'll again refer to the Military Balance 2021: Army - 280 000 https://imgur.com/a/BwA6ZgsMarines - 35 000 https://imgur.com/a/GGuFoluAirborne - 45 000 https://imgur.com/a/J4Pw5Ks360 000 overall A lot of those are conscripts, who are not participating in war. How many of those are in three aforementioned branches isn't clear, but out of the 1 million Russian army pre-war 260 000 were conscripts. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/personnel-draft.htmSo around a quarter. From my knowledge and experience, Marines and Airborne (as well as Air force) would be less stuffed with conscripts (more demanding or difficult stuff), while Missile forces, Air Defence forces and Ground Forces - would be more (less needed or sophisticated jobs). Navy would be somewhere in the middle. Based on that I would assume (considering that part of these forces are rear HQs, training grounds, supply depots, logistics etc.) that Russia had around 220-230 thousand people they could send in Ukraine (add to that contract soldiers who actually refused to go to Ukraine, but I have no data on them). There is also Rosgvardia, with numbers to be estimated around 500 000. But it includes a lot of different facility security groups, stuff like civilian weapon inspection, etc. Quite few of these are actual combat troops, with weapons and vehicles sufficient to even act as light infantry. This is again an estimation, but I would put their numbers to around 1/5-1/4 of regular combat troops, so somewhere around 40-50 thousand. +aforementioned LDPR regulars of 35 thousand. Add to that maybe 5 thousand of their paramiltary and police forces. Which give us 300-320 thousand men that Russia is able to throw in on the ground on Day 1 of invasion or immediately after without dipping in their manpower reserves. - 2nd: Volunteer recruitment, divided in 5 parts: 1) 3rd Army Corps, made of regional volunteer units. Hard to find factual numbers, ISW report from 06.07.2022 claims it to be 15,5 thousand strong https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6But considering that it consists of 1 division (6th Motor Rifle) and 1 brigade (72nd Motor Rifle), I would assume it to be around 20-22 thousand, all supporting elements including. 2) Chechnya. In autumn 2022 Kadyrov claimed that 20 000 Chechens are already taking part in war. https://rus.err.ee/1608726049/kadyrov-v-chechne-mobilizacii-ne-budetIt isn't clear, how many of those went in after the start of the war. One Chechen official claimed that 5000 Chechen volunteers went to war by 31st July. https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/380653/But there were also: 1. New combat units (3 motorized batallions (Akhmat South, East and West) and regiment (Akhmat North)) which were still forming in Chechnya until autumn. 2. A lot of volunteers from other part of Russia went through Chechen training camps and facilities (like this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Special_Forces_University ), so it isn't clear if they were counted among "Chechen volunteers". So I would throw a coin, and say around 15 000 new men since the start of the war. 3) BARS (Battle Army Reserve of the State) batallions. Odd units, being kinda paramilitary, but under direct supervision of MoD. These are ligh infantry units, around 400 men strong each (based on this equipment table delivered by volunteers to BARS-4). https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2022/10/27/18892339.shtmlI'm not sure on exact number of these battalions, the biggest number I saw is BARS-23. So if no numbers are missing, this force is around 10 000 strong. I'll again assume around 50% added for casualties, and say that around 15 000 men went through these during the war. 4) Wagner. By their own recent claims, 78 thousand men went through Ukrainian campaign (including 49 thousand convicts) https://topcor.ru/37402-nachalnik-shtaba-chvk-vagner-cherez-svo-proshli-78-tys-bojcov-22-tys-pogibli.html5) Pre-mobilisation volunteers - meaning those, who went directly into combat MoD units not mentioned above. The hardest to quantify, as there are no exact numbers. But my estimation, due to the need of mobilisation, and scale of it, would be "not very high". I don't know, maybe 20-30 thousand men, since there was no active recruitment campaign pre-mobilization, on the contrary, it was constantly said that "SMO is going according to plan". So the sum of these figures would be 20-22 + 15 + 15 + 78 + 20-30 = 148-160 thousand. - Then there was mobilization. These figures are pretty simple - 318 thousand. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5651405November-December period is unclear in terms of recruitment. But since the start of the year an active recruitment campaign was put in place, with a lot of billboards in the cities changing to military recruitment ones, as well as TV and Internet ads. Again, figures from 01.01.2023 to 01.08.2023 were pretty straightforward - 231 thousand https://rg.ru/2023/08/03/medvedev-s-nachala-goda-na-sluzhbu-po-kontraktu-priniali-bolee-231-tysiachi-chelovek.htmlI'm assuming these are all new contract servicemen, and not some people re-signing their contract. Let's throw in another 20 thousand for aforementioned November-December period, to get 251 thousand men. There are also convicts recruited by MoD directly, not Wagner. This number is unknown, So I'll make a wild guess of another 20 thousand here. Then let's some everything up 300-320 thousand - initial invasion forces and forces at immediate disposal. 80 thousand - drafted in LDPR 148-160 thousand - recruited from different sources in Russia 318 thousand - mobilized 251 thousand - contract troops from 01.11.2022 to 01.08.2023 20 thousand - MoD convicts 300+80+148+318+251+20 = 1 117 So 1117-1149 thousand men deployed by Russia on frontlines, or being prepared to do so throughout the war. Plus some rear area support and protection on old Russian border in form of Border Guard units, conscripts and Rosgvardia, as well as logistic stuff (Railway troops and supply battalions). I don't know here, maybe another 100 000 men, give or take. Air force and Navy support personnel is also hard to quantify properly here.
Ukraine
+ Show Spoiler +Info is more scarce here. Pre-war numbers by MB 2021 are estimated to be 145 000 for Ground forces, 10 000 for Airborne+Naval infantry (actually I think is underestimation, considering the number of such brigades even pre-war, but w/e), and 102 000 paramilitary (National Guard and such). https://imgur.com/vGPMm4ZHowever by May 2022 already Zelensky claimed to have 700 000 men in the military, due to mobilizing manpower to pre-existing Territorial Defence brigades, as well as creating bunch of new brigades and batallions. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-700000-soldiers-defending-ukraine-now/Then, by June, Ukraine's Defence minister claimed, that there are already a million men in all branches of UA Armed Forces and other military structures https://archive.ph/20220710213957/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-has-one-million-ready-for-fightback-to-recapture-south-3rhkrhstfAfter that most of UA sources went silent on the actual number of forces. The only mention that I saw was from Klitchko, claiming that around 100 000 residents of Kiev are at war. But even then it was in October 2022 https://www.unian.net/society/klichko-blizko-100-tisyach-kiyan-vzhe-stali-uchasnikami-boyovih-diy-z-rosiyskimi-okupantami-novosti-kieva-12011478.htmlThis also kinda algins with previous claims. Pre-war population of Ukraine (not including LDPR and Crimea) was around 35-40 million (give or take, as no proper population census was held since 2001). 1 million of those would be around 2,5-2,7% of population. 100 thousand of Kiev inhabitants (around 3 million pre-war) is 3,3 %, which is showing tendency for growing (to no surprise, as three months of war had passed). People with good math skills could take data on UA mobilization from above and make their own graphs leading to today. Because then there was no new info (at least I didn't see one). But considering the battles of Kherson, Kreminnaya, Bakhmut, Avdeevka, creation of new units for 9th and 10th Army Corps and subsequent summer counteroffensive - I doubt the demand for manpower went down. And this guess of mine was also in line with this estimation https://jamestown.org/program/ukraines-personnel-needs-reaching-a-critical-threshold/Considering this think-tank having close ties with US government institutions, I would hardly label it as a pro-Russian source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamestown_FoundationSo the current estimation of Ukraine's Armed Forces and other paramilitary is around 2 million.
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EPT
