EPT+ Show Spoiler +
Also the Polish President has arrived in Kyiv.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 485
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Also the Polish President has arrived in Kyiv. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16044 Posts
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ZeroByte13
745 Posts
I can understand people arguing about was it worth it or not in terms of losses - i.e. is it successful enough for its price or not - as true losses are never revealed by neither side But shouldn't objective progress be visible in some way? Sattilite maps, drone videos, people sharing something, etc? | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5454 Posts
On June 29 2023 03:19 Vindicare605 wrote: oooh. if the Ukrainians are at Melitipol that means they're at the last stage they need to be to cut the land bridge to Crimea. That could end the war if they can take it and hold it. Hold your horses, they are not at Melitopol. An explosion does not mean they've reached that far. There were explosions in Crimea recently. | ||
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
On June 29 2023 03:26 ZeroByte13 wrote: Some say there was barely any progress, other say a lot of progress was made. I can understand people arguing about was it worth it or not in terms of losses - i.e. is it successful enough for its price or not - as true losses are never revealed by neither side But shouldn't objective progress be visible in some way? Sattilite maps, drone videos, people sharing something, etc? What do you mean, we're getting a constant stream of all of those things? | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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KwarK
United States42017 Posts
On June 29 2023 03:26 ZeroByte13 wrote: Some say there was barely any progress, other say a lot of progress was made. I can understand people arguing about was it worth it or not in terms of losses - i.e. is it successful enough for its price or not - as true losses are never revealed by neither side But shouldn't objective progress be visible in some way? Sattilite maps, drone videos, people sharing something, etc? Progress in a war of attrition means body bags. Yours and theirs. Satellite maps change later. Look at the movement on the western front in WW1. It doesn’t describe the inexorable allied victory but the allies still won. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15401 Posts
Is it still technically profitable for Russia to do all of this until January 2025? Even if we assume some theoretical scenario where Russia seizes Kiev in February 2025, is it not assumed it would be an extremely long time until Ukraine was functionally a net positive due to rebellion and whatnot? I understand a lot of this feels very unlikely, but I am just trying to find a justification/explanation other than "feels committed, is legitimately very resentful and insecure regarding Russia's position in the world, drank his own koolaid" etc, I want to consider a scenario where he's not technically 100% wrong to hope. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2526 Posts
On June 29 2023 13:17 Mohdoo wrote: Does anyone have a generous explanation for why Putin still wants this war to happen? Even if we assume its still possible Trump wins in 2024 and essentially shuts the whole thing down January 2025, that's an extremely long time from now. Is it still technically profitable for Russia to do all of this until January 2025? Even if we assume some theoretical scenario where Russia seizes Kiev in February 2025, is it not assumed it would be an extremely long time until Ukraine was functionally a net positive due to rebellion and whatnot? I understand a lot of this feels very unlikely, but I am just trying to find a justification/explanation other than "feels committed, is legitimately very resentful and insecure regarding Russia's position in the world, drank his own koolaid" etc, I want to consider a scenario where he's not technically 100% wrong to hope. He doesn't die. Thats the motivation. Is it profitable? No, but it has long term strategical benefits and the pure economic woes will filter down to the average Russian so the elite doesn't care about that. | ||
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pmp10
3248 Posts
On June 29 2023 13:17 Mohdoo wrote: Does anyone have a generous explanation for why Putin still wants this war to happen? Even if we assume its still possible Trump wins in 2024 and essentially shuts the whole thing down January 2025, that's an extremely long time from now. That's simple - Putin thinks he is winning. The war strengthened his regime, united the country, gave Russians clear imperial purpose and is (albeit slowly) realizing the goals of rebuilding Russian hard power in the region. I'm sure that strategically he expects west to fall apart politically and Ukraine to eventually collapse, even if it takes a few decades of repeat invasions to make it happen. The human and economic costs he cares little about - I mean who challenged Peter the Great on costs of the Great Norther War? | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
On June 29 2023 15:11 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: He doesn't die. Thats the motivation. Is it profitable? No, but it has long term strategical benefits and the pure economic woes will filter down to the average Russian so the elite doesn't care about that. It seems it has to be repeated more often: Putin's primary goal is to maintain and extend his power, and all of his political decisions serve this single purpose. He doesn't care about other people, not even his own, rich or poor, unless they can serve him. This is why I found it so important to highlight that Putin pardoning Prigozhin is a bad sign. It means he's able to control his impulses, and that doesn't increase my hope for Ukraine. Preferably his anger would control him, but instead he's demonstrating a cool head. But having thought about it more, I see an upside to it as well. With a cool head he's also less likely to deliver on his nuclear threats. It would serve no purpose, even to him, as long as he can retain his seat in Russia. | ||
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
On June 29 2023 13:17 Mohdoo wrote: Does anyone have a generous explanation for why Putin still wants this war to happen? Even if we assume its still possible Trump wins in 2024 and essentially shuts the whole thing down January 2025, that's an extremely long time from now. Is it still technically profitable for Russia to do all of this until January 2025? Even if we assume some theoretical scenario where Russia seizes Kiev in February 2025, is it not assumed it would be an extremely long time until Ukraine was functionally a net positive due to rebellion and whatnot? I understand a lot of this feels very unlikely, but I am just trying to find a justification/explanation other than "feels committed, is legitimately very resentful and insecure regarding Russia's position in the world, drank his own koolaid" etc, I want to consider a scenario where he's not technically 100% wrong to hope. Have we completely ruled out the possibility that Putin is actually winning? Don't get me wrong, I hope it isn't the case and if I had to bet on it I would expect Ukraine to win, eventually, but I'm not convinced it's a done deal. It wouldn't shock me if Ukraine runs out of soldiers or vehicles before making meaningful gains/breakthroughs before Russia does. Why are we treating this as if it's already a forgone conclusion? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21390 Posts
On June 29 2023 17:21 Mikau wrote: People is a potential real concern, but material? I feel pretty confident that the Western military industrial complex can outproduce RussiaHave we completely ruled out the possibility that Putin is actually winning? Don't get me wrong, I hope it isn't the case and if I had to bet on it I would expect Ukraine to win, eventually, but I'm not convinced it's a done deal. It wouldn't shock me if Ukraine runs out of soldiers or vehicles before making meaningful gains/breakthroughs before Russia does. Why are we treating this as if it's already a forgone conclusion? | ||
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
Which I think supports what I was trying to say. With how many unknowns and situations that can still shift on a dime, how are we treating this war as already over (in every way except for the fact that Russia hasn't caught on yet). | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2526 Posts
On June 29 2023 17:41 Mikau wrote: Yeah, the material concern is mainly/only really a concern if the balance of power in mainly the US switches to the right too much. I'm not convinced that would even cause support to dry up, mind you, but it's also not something I think we can rule out completely. Which I think supports what I was trying to say. With how many unknowns and situations that can still shift on a dime, how are we treating this war as already over (in every way except for the fact that Russia hasn't caught on yet). It's only a concern if it switches to MAGA right. Republicans are calling for cluster munitions and long range rockets. So I think loosing material support is very unlikely. Also consider that the EU is increasing It's artillery production target to 175k shells a month and the US to 90k. That alone is 8,8k shells per day. With other allies and 152mm we are looking at 10k+ rounds a day as a real possibility around the time political change can come around. Russia is firing 3-5k rounds a day currently. If the war does indeed go attritional and continues Ukraine likely has a distinct edge around 2025. All US politicians hate loosing so I can't see them dropping support at such a point. | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2593 Posts
If he admits defeat now, he will certainly lose his job, and he has made enough enemies that without his power, he will be the next victim of the pavement below a window. Hitler never surrendered until the bitter end even though it was obvious Germany was going to lose. | ||
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pmp10
3248 Posts
On June 29 2023 17:28 Gorsameth wrote: People is a potential real concern, but material? I feel pretty confident that the Western military industrial complex can outproduce Russia It cannot. Or to be more accurate - unlike in Russia, no one will pay for the necessary MiC expansion. By now it's too late anyway. Turns out scaling up production of artillery munitions takes at least a couple of years. Tanks and artillery systems would need far longer then that and I don't even want to know how long you'd need to get another F16 assembly line running. That's why US involvement is so important - it's the only country that could supply Ukraine long-term given their equipment stockpiles. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21390 Posts
If they were to run out of F16's to give you don't make new F16's, you start sending Ukraine F35's. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4693 Posts
F16 are still being produced and are in VERY high demand. Ukraine will most likely receive some older verions of F16. This plane has changed a lot since its first flight, much like T-72 and T72-B3 are very different beasts. | ||
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KwarK
United States42017 Posts
On June 29 2023 20:45 pmp10 wrote: It cannot. Or to be more accurate - unlike in Russia, no one will pay for the necessary MiC expansion. By now it's too late anyway. Turns out scaling up production of artillery munitions takes at least a couple of years. Tanks and artillery systems would need far longer then that and I don't even want to know how long you'd need to get another F16 assembly line running. That's why US involvement is so important - it's the only country that could supply Ukraine long-term given their equipment stockpiles. Russian production has mostly been refurbishment of irreplaceable Soviet era stocks. If we’re looking at long term supply issues my money is on Ukraine faring better. Though the Challenger 2 is also refurbished irreplaceable old stocks so Russia isn’t alone in that position. Perun’s latest video has some good satellite photo analysis of how old Soviet depots are being consumed at an impressive rate. | ||
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