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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
It would be preferable for everyone except Putin if Russian soldiers can be convinced that they have nothing to gain and everything to lose. To end the war, Ukraine needs to instill defeatism in the minds of Russian soldiers. Regarding that we have good news: Prigozhin has rejected the Kremlin's offer. https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-boss-rejects-putin-mercenaries-sign-up-russian-army-2023-6 This will hopefully have a demoralizing effect on Russian soldiers. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23712 Posts
Still depends on if they can get a major PR/strategic win out of this offensive (and the ensuing offensives over the next year or so) but without them (and I don't think they look especially likely) I think they'll be pushed into negotiations. I'm unclear if Zelensky deciding not to hold scheduled elections (including his own) will extend, reduce, or have no meaningful impact on that timeline. As it sits, Ukraine's stint with democracy (it is/was always pretty corrupt) is over until at least the war is and no one can be certain it will return even then. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17692 Posts
On June 30 2023 02:17 Magic Powers wrote: Russia can really only delay the inevitable. Unfortunately it can delay it a lot. In this sense Ukraine is likely going to win, but it will be very costly for both sides. It would be preferable for everyone except Putin if Russian soldiers can be convinced that they have nothing to gain and everything to lose. To end the war, Ukraine needs to instill defeatism in the minds of Russian soldiers. Regarding that we have good news: Prigozhin has rejected the Kremlin's offer. https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-boss-rejects-putin-mercenaries-sign-up-russian-army-2023-6 This will hopefully have a demoralizing effect on Russian soldiers. I'm not sure it will. Most soldiers probably don't even know what's happening around them, not to mention some political struggles at the top. Also, it's kinda sad but I think one of the diplomats that was working in the embassy in Russia for many years once said that people in the West have a tendency to judge Russians by their own standards and imagine Russians having similar mentality to themselves. She said that to make it easier to understand all Russians should really have purple skin or something because (mentally) they're nothing like people in the West. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14104 Posts
The West however still isn't at the end of the escalation ladder. Storm shadows have been incredible it seems but GLSDB's are the regular HIMARS missiles on steroids for range and ATACM's are on that ladder it seems. F-16's are cool and fitting for the battlespace but both sides are filled with anti air systems. The losses of Surovikin and Wagner from the front is a very significant development. The only advancement russia has made from the start of the war was attributed to a force that is now traitors exiled to Belarus. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2726 Posts
On June 30 2023 03:22 Sermokala wrote: I don't think the war can go on for more than two years by sheer burn rate of stocks on either side. Neither side is producing material in near enough rate to compete with the burn rate of equipment. Russia brought out the oldest of stock they have to make some amount of their stuff made in the last 30 years last. The USA at some point will have to decide between activating their desert stocks that are saved for a very rainy day or not. I'm not going to pretend what the production capability is for things like javelins but I know that ammo can be ramped up a lot easier. I don't think China is going to send their heavy equipment past semi-private sales of lighter vehicles. The West however still isn't at the end of the escalation ladder. Storm shadows have been incredible it seems but GLSDB's are the regular HIMARS missiles on steroids for range and ATACM's are on that ladder it seems. F-16's are cool and fitting for the battlespace but both sides are filled with anti air systems. The losses of Surovikin and Wagner from the front is a very significant development. The only advancement russia has made from the start of the war was attributed to a force that is now traitors exiled to Belarus. Well... a train with T54/55s was just spotted in Crimea so you might have a point. For one of the sides at least. Meanwhile Ukraine is still getting a net surplus of tanks from Europe who according to TL.net don't have any tanks. Which compared to the US (who are yet to deliver any tanks) is actually true because they have so much shit sitting around it's ridicoulus. The US have 2000 Bradley in storage and 4000 active and it's something being phased out. But Ukraine is going to run out of hardware before the country who is shipping tanks that are at least 50-60 years old. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria837 Posts
Same story, uneducated village people who think they protect "the motherland". I don't think Russia will collapse this year, but I do think that each year spent in this war is gonna make Russia's recovery that much difficult. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
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Artesimo
Germany567 Posts
On June 30 2023 06:19 StasisField wrote: Wagner just recently decided the war in Ukraine was so suicidal that they'd rather stage a coup and face possible execution for their actions and people are questioning who is winning the war? Did I wake up in some parallel timeline where that didn't happen or something? Russia is so fractured as a state right now that Putin couldn't even take on Wagner directly and had to put the rebellion down through negotiations and exile to Belarus. Their modern equipment stocks are dwindling, troop morale is low, Ukraine has already reclaimed more territory in this counteroffensive than Russia took in its entire winter offensive - the list goes on. I don't understand how anyone who isn't surrounding themselves in Russian propaganda is questioning who is winning. It should be painfully obvious While its not certain yet why wagner rebelled, the most likely explanation has nothing to do with the war being suicidal, but PMCs being forced to sign up with the MOD and be under their command. Wagner is a substantial part of prigozhins power, and he has been openly hostile to the MOD. His fighters being under control of the MOD was most likely not acceptable for him because of that. They could have left the war without rebelling, the goal of the rebellion was concluding the powerstruggle between prigozhin and the MOD in favour of prigozhin. There is also no evidence that putin/the kremlin couldn't take on the small wagner rebellion, the fact that wagner seemingly gained nothing in the deal apart from the involved leadership (maybe) staying alive seems to point more towards prigozhin being saved by lukashenko rather than putin. The practicality of using force against a smaller group of wagner when the majority seemingly hasn't been part of the revolt and would also be a great addition to the MOD has been discussed in here before. Lukashenko saving putin / putin needing him to avoid the rebellion being successful seems like western propaganda to me at this point. The comparison to the russian winter offensive feels meaningless because depending on who you ask, it either never even happened, or the performance was mainly due to russia refusing to conduct adequate pauses and kept wasting troops on constant offensive operations rather than building up a reserve in preparation for the offensive. Something they could change, just like with their refusal to do general mobilisation. Throughout this war, the russian military has been held back by lack of support from the political side (no mobilisation initially, in general no true commitment to a true war for much of the first year and instead continued effort to conclude this conflict as their "special military operation"). I'd grant you that this is a mistake russia has made consistently, but they have also consistently adapted in other areas, so its not sure to stay that way. While I agree that at the moment it looks more in favour of ukraine, its far from a sure thing unless you assume that all current trends hold. And ofc it is also a question of what one means when talking about winning. Ukraines continued existence as a state? That does feel like a fairly safe bet. Everything else seems to rely on too many factors to make a strong prediction on in my opinion, we would at least have to wait until the current counteroffensive is concluded. Saying that its a sure thing requires either a healthy dose of wishful thinking or believing the propaganda from our side imo. People far more capable of making these kind of judgements disagree on this, and those who do believe in a sure ukrainian victory usually are very open about basing it on the assumption that significant positive trends hold for ukraine. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On June 30 2023 07:15 Artesimo wrote: While its not certain yet why wagner rebelled, the most likely explanation has nothing to do with the war being suicidal, but PMCs being forced to sign up with the MOD and be under their command. Wagner is a substantial part of prigozhins power, and he has been openly hostile to the MOD. His fighters being under control of the MOD was most likely not acceptable for him because of that. They could have left the war without rebelling, the goal of the rebellion was concluding the powerstruggle between prigozhin and the MOD in favour of prigozhin. There is also no evidence that putin/the kremlin couldn't take on the small wagner rebellion, the fact that wagner seemingly gained nothing in the deal apart from the involved leadership (maybe) staying alive seems to point more towards prigozhin being saved by lukashenko rather than putin. The practicality of using force against a smaller group of wagner when the majority seemingly hasn't been part of the revolt and would also be a great addition to the MOD has been discussed in here before. Lukashenko saving putin / putin needing him to avoid the rebellion being successful seems like western propaganda to me at this point. The comparison to the russian winter offensive feels meaningless because depending on who you ask, it either never even happened, or the performance was mainly due to russia refusing to conduct adequate pauses and kept wasting troops on constant offensive operations rather than building up a reserve in preparation for the offensive. Something they could change, just like with their refusal to do general mobilisation. Throughout this war, the russian military has been held back by lack of support from the political side (no mobilisation initially, in general no true commitment to a true war for much of the first year and instead continued effort to conclude this conflict as their "special military operation"). I'd grant you that this is a mistake russia has made consistently, but they have also consistently adapted in other areas, so its not sure to stay that way. While I agree that at the moment it looks more in favour of ukraine, its far from a sure thing unless you assume that all current trends hold. And ofc it is also a question of what one means when talking about winning. Ukraines continued existence as a state? That does feel like a fairly safe bet. Everything else seems to rely on too many factors to make a strong prediction on in my opinion, we would at least have to wait until the current counteroffensive is concluded. Saying that its a sure thing requires either a healthy dose of wishful thinking or believing the propaganda from our side imo. People far more capable of making these kind of judgements disagree on this, and those who do believe in a sure ukrainian victory usually are very open about basing it on the assumption that significant positive trends hold for ukraine. Various factions in Russia have been criticizing the war effort for months now, including Wagner leadership. The war is considered to be going pretty shit for Russia and they have already failed to achieve all their goals the war was meant to accomplish (like preventing NATO expansion). At this point, taking land and holding it is the only "victory" Russia has left on the table and they're even failing to achieve that goal. And Wagner is leaving the front so they can resume their military activity they were engaged in before the war. They definitely got something they wanted, which is to bully African nations with poorly equipped, poorly trained soldiers instead of dying to mortar blasts and artillery strikes in Ukraine. Also; I never said the war is a sure thing. I said it's obvious whose winning right now and you even seem to agree with me there? I don't see the point in your reply. It seems to amount to "yeah Russia is doing bad. They've made some pretty awful mistakes and they're losing, but that could change!" Yes? We agree. Russia could suddenly become competent and start winning but they obviously aren't winning right now and that's my point. | ||
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pmp10
3389 Posts
On June 30 2023 05:28 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: But Ukraine is going to run out of hardware before the country who is shipping tanks that are at least 50-60 years old. You do realize how old Leopard 1s are that will be soon delivered to Ukraine? Even these will likely run out next year leaving only M60s. | ||
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
On June 30 2023 06:19 StasisField wrote: Wagner just recently decided the war in Ukraine was so suicidal that they'd rather stage a coup and face possible execution for their actions and people are questioning who is winning the war? Did I wake up in some parallel timeline where that didn't happen or something? Russia is so fractured as a state right now that Putin couldn't even take on Wagner directly and had to put the rebellion down through negotiations and exile to Belarus. Their modern equipment stocks are dwindling, troop morale is low, Ukraine has already reclaimed more territory in this counteroffensive than Russia took in its entire winter offensive - the list goes on. I don't understand how anyone who isn't surrounding themselves in Russian propaganda is questioning who is winning. It should be painfully obvious This feels like a misrepresentation of the conversation you were responding to. Nobody was 'questioning who is winning' some people (IE, me) were arguing that it's not guaranteed. Which is something you seem to agree with too, which makes you saying: I said it's obvious whose winning right now and you even seem to agree with me there? I don't see the point in your reply. rather ironic. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On June 30 2023 14:57 Mikau wrote: This feels like a misrepresentation of the conversation you were responding to. Nobody was 'questioning who is winning' some people (IE, me) were arguing that it's not guaranteed. Which is something you seem to agree with too, which makes you saying: rather ironic. I probably misinterpretted the conversation that's fair. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany567 Posts
On June 30 2023 07:33 StasisField wrote: Various factions in Russia have been criticizing the war effort for months now, including Wagner leadership. The war is considered to be going pretty shit for Russia and they have already failed to achieve all their goals the war was meant to accomplish (like preventing NATO expansion). At this point, taking land and holding it is the only "victory" Russia has left on the table and they're even failing to achieve that goal. And Wagner is leaving the front so they can resume their military activity they were engaged in before the war. They definitely got something they wanted, which is to bully African nations with poorly equipped, poorly trained soldiers instead of dying to mortar blasts and artillery strikes in Ukraine. Also; I never said the war is a sure thing. I said it's obvious whose winning right now and you even seem to agree with me there? I don't see the point in your reply. It seems to amount to "yeah Russia is doing bad. They've made some pretty awful mistakes and they're losing, but that could change!" Yes? We agree. Russia could suddenly become competent and start winning but they obviously aren't winning right now and that's my point. Apologies, I misinterpreted your post as being a response to the general concern about ukraine and "not calling it over just yet" in the recent posts. I still strongly disagree with your assessment of the wagner situation though. Yes, as I said they got to keep their lives out of the deal, I covered as much. I refuse the idea that open rebellion was the preferable option to just quitting and leaving. The lives of the commanders involved are now most likely in danger, prigozhin is now most likely in danger. While wagner did take some of their troops away from their oversea ventures, as far as I am aware their overseas work has been largely intact throughout this war. Remember that even before the prisoner recruiting, wagner increased their size for ukraine. Many of the wagner fighters that died in this war have been recruited just for this war and had no effect on their other ventures. And prigozhin doesn't care as long as it gets him wealth and influence I imagine. Again, this rebellion did not come when the war was going badly, it came when the MOD threatened to take control of wagner in ukraine. And now the rebellion put wagners future and the future of prigozhin and his leadership in very uncertain waters. I don't think anyone would be surprised if prigozhin turns up dead in the near future, and wagner ends up being assimilated by another russian PMC group, or its leadership suddenly undergoes a rapid switch of allegiance. So yeah, they did gain their lives at the cost of their commanders lives most likely being at risk from now on, more so than when commanding forces in this war. The risk of completely falling out of favour with the kremlin (remember that PMC groups are illegal under russian law), which can ultimately lead to wagner being phased out and prigozhin losing a large base of his power and thus his protection that way. There is no way to look at wagners rebellion and think that if they just wanted to get out of the war, this was the play. If you just want to get out of the war, you just get out at the risk of being on bad terms with the kremlin for a while. You don't march on moscow in an attempt to depose some elements of the MOD and then end up being branded traitors for a brief moment and now most likely being seen as a long term issue that the kremlin will most likely deal with eventually. I refuse that this was the better outcome, than prigozhin simply taking his mercenaries out, or just doing a covert pull out by getting his important troops out slowly while continuing to "recover" and then just leaving a skeleton crew/their expendable hires in ukraine to keep up appearances. In conclusion, yes they got something out of the deal, but that something is like me letting you pick 1 item to keep before I go in and clean out your entire home, when the alternative would have been to just not letting me in. They put themselves in a far worse position with their rebellion. They got the absolute bare minimum for this to be called a deal. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2726 Posts
On June 30 2023 14:09 pmp10 wrote: You do realize how old Leopard 1s are that will be soon delivered to Ukraine? Even these will likely run out next year leaving only M60s. The 1A5 is from -87 and onward. That is old but comparable to T72B (not B3M of course). Not a modern tank but comparable to what Russia is using and way better than T54/55. | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2605 Posts
Things could have turned out a lot differently, if for example they successfully arrested Shoigu and or Gerasimov in Rostov, or if more Rosgvardia joined their ranks. Given the situation he and Putin were in, where Putin couldn't get any of the Rosgvardia to actually stop the rebellion and had limited effectiveness in using the air force, and Prigozhin didn't really have the power to take and hold Moscow, I think they both made the best deal available to them to eliminate the risk of losing it all. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17692 Posts
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KwarK
United States43674 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14104 Posts
On July 02 2023 00:16 Manit0u wrote: There supposedly was a Russian strike using Iskander rocket against a restaurant in the middle of a city where some Ukrainian generals and officers were meeting with foreign advisors, mercenaries etc. 2 generals, up to 50 officers and 20 foreigners were killed according to the reports. There was a russian report of them useing one of their hypersonics to destroy a supposed deep bunker that had a lot of NATO officers and higher up Ukrainian officals in the outskirts of kyiv. Russia can't hide it when their generals die NATO would have a much harder time to cover up that many deaths of important people. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2726 Posts
On July 02 2023 00:16 Manit0u wrote: There supposedly was a Russian strike using Iskander rocket against a restaurant in the middle of a city where some Ukrainian generals and officers were meeting with foreign advisors, mercenaries etc. 2 generals, up to 50 officers and 20 foreigners were killed according to the reports. There are videos from the café just after the strike so if you want you can judge for yourself. No doubt there were of duty military there as it was a popular place in those circles according to reports. But from what I saw its mostly civilians. Would be intresting to see what the Russians say if Ukraine detonated a car bomb outside a Russian resturant frequented by military personal. Somehow I feel the usual suspects would be screeming about terrorism in that case. | ||
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