Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 487

Ukraine has said its troops have regained more ground along eastern and southern fronts in what the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, described as progress in a “difficult” week for Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces.

The deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, also noted a surge in fighting around the shattered eastern city of Bakhmut, captured by Russian forces in May after 10 months of battles.

“Last week was difficult on the frontline. But we are making progress,” Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“We are moving forward, step by step! I thank everyone who is defending Ukraine, everyone who is leading this war to Ukraine’s victory!”

In an initial report on Telegram on Monday, Maliar said the Ukrainian military took back 37.4 sq km (14.4 sq miles) of territory in heavy fighting in the past week.

She said Russian forces were attacking near Lyman, in the northern Donetsk region and near Avdiivka and Mariinka, long-contested cities farther south – to the west of Bakhmut.

In a later report, Maliar said fighting near Bakhmut had intensified and “a struggle is under way to seize the initiative.

“Today, the enemy attempted to advance in this sector. And our forces achieved a measure of success,” she wrote. “The situation is changing rapidly and control over positions can be lost and regained twice within a day.”

Russian forces, she said, were setting up three defensive lines on certain fronts. Ukrainian forces had advanced near a village south of Bakhmut, while fighting was continuing to the north and the city had experienced heavy exchanges of fire.

Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, in charge of Ukraine’s land forces, reported advances of troops on the fringes of Bakhmut and “effective destruction of Russians”.

Moscow has spent months consolidating its defensive lines, some of which now run to a depth of 30km.

“There’s a considerable number of Russians in Ukraine. There are considerable defensive obstacles,” Adm Rob Bauer, the chair of Nato’s military committee told journalists in Brussels on Monday.

“The counteroffensive, it is difficult. People should never think that this is an easy walkover.”

Ukrainian military chiefs were right to be “cautious” probing for weaknesses in the Russian lines, as they risk losing a lot of forces in full-on assaults, Bauer said.

Earlier in the day, Maliar said Ukraine had reclaimed 9 sq km over the past week along the eastern front “as a result of improving the operational (tactical) position and aligning the frontline”.

In the south, Ukraine had regained 28.4 sq km of territory, bringing the total area of recaptured territory along that front to 158.4 sq km.

To further complicate the task for Kyiv, the Russians have recently attacked several places in the Donbas, which Moscow claimed to have annexed last year. Conquering the region remains Moscow’s declared main aim of the war.

According to Kyiv, Russian forces are also on the offensive, and in recent days launched new assaults towards Svatove in the eastern Luhansk region, as well as near Avdiivka, Mariinka and Lyman.

Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said on Monday that a brief mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group last month had not affected Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The provocation did not affect the actions of army groups (involved in the operation),” he told a ministry meeting.

On July 05 2023 03:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Something massive has blown up in occupied Donetsk. The force is reported to have been felt over 9 miles away.

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1676300661288304640

edit: There seriously needs to an emergency UN meeting called. Where the UN is placed in charge of not only the Plant but the surrounding area as well.

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On July 06 2023 07:45 ZeroByte13 wrote:
There's almost no activity in this topic in the last week or so.
I'm distracted by more urgent personal matters now so I don't follow current events much - were there no news / changes / advancements during last 5-7 days?

On July 06 2023 15:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
Thanks to everyone for answers, especially to Semorkala for such a detailed one.
ZPP attack is a very worrying scenario, I wonder why I don't hear more about it.

On July 06 2023 22:39 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So Prigozhin is able to go back to Russia to get back his money from one of his mansions, and weaponry. It seems like Wagner got a country at the price of not storming the Palace.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IycEwB6Sp-M

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On July 07 2023 00:52 Artesimo wrote:


What country would that be? The one they did do their little revolt in and failed miserably with no chance at success, or the country with a standing army and heavy weapons that is now granting them asylum? Wagner has the potential to be a bit of a headache within belarus, but that is about it. As far as I know prigozhin's only meaningful connection there is lukashenko, so the guy already in power. It is doubtful that the probably already exaggerated number of 23k wagner troops is going to move into the barracks in belarus, there are no signs that a wagner coup in belarus would have any support from the military there either. It is also not clear yet under what conditions they will settle there, so even if all 23k would move over, that doesn't mean they are fully armed.

On July 07 2023 01:14 Nezgar wrote:


Belarus' standing army is not that big. They have a lot of metal, but not a lot of manpower. Lukashenka is a strongman without the "strong", his grip on power has been very shaky at times and so an influx of veteran soldiers can be very useful for him. I suspect that he, too, is seeing the writing on the wall and wants more security for himself and his regime for when the war inevitably ends not in Russia's favor. How would his regime look like if Putin falls or worse? There have been a lot of protests and backlash in recent elections from his population, I cannot imagine that he will suddenly become more popular with that crowd throughout and after the war, especially when Russia loses. Though tying himself to Prigozhin is a double-edged sword, of course.
Prigozhin could get access to a lot of hardware that Belarus has in their stockpiles, assuming that Russia hasn't completely pillaged those yet, which in turn can increase the power of his PMC in general and within Belarus. He doesn't need to stage a coup in Belarus to gather a lot of influence there.

It would be nice to know what Wagner's role in Africa is now. Up to this point they have secured a lot of resources and influence there in the name of Russia, propping up rulers and warlords. I don't see how Russia would be able to take over those roles in the middle of the current war, so does Wagner keep those positions of power there?

On July 07 2023 01:34 Artesimo wrote:

As I said, they can be a headache for belarus, but claiming wagner got a country is just beyond silly. I agree that there is potential, but there are a lot of ifs in the way to realise any of that. For reference, even if all of the claimed 23k fighters move over, the belarussian army is still more than twice the size of that. It is more likely that something closer to the number of wagner mercenaries involved in their mutiny will go over to belarus (4-8k). If 4-8k were supposedly a big threat for the internal security of russia, just because they got a couple of IFVs and tanks, how good are their chances without those against an actual military?

Sure he can get some influence and who knows what happens down the line, but claiming that wagner got a country is completely blown out of proportion. The same people that wanted the wagner mutiny to be a coup didn't get the show they hoped for, so now they move on to fanfic about wagner in belarus.

Their mercenaries are still there, but supposedly russia is taking over control of operations now. At least that is what they supposedly signalled through diplomatic channels. Maybe the mercenaries now get contracts with another "totally not russia" PMC group closer to the MOD or one of putins other cronies.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration has decided to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine and is expected to announce on Friday that the Pentagon will send thousands as part of the latest military aid package for the war effort against Russia, according to people familiar with the decision.

The decision comes despite widespread concerns that the controversial bombs can cause civilian casualties. The Pentagon will provide munitions that have a reduced “dud rate,” meaning there will be far fewer unexploded rounds that can result in unintended civilian deaths.

U.S. officials said Thursday that the cluster munitions would be part of about $800 million in new military assistance to Ukraine.

Long sought by Ukraine, cluster bombs are weapons that open in the air, releasing submunitions, or “bomblets,” that are dispersed over a large area and are intended to wreak destruction on multiple targets at once.

The officials and others familiar with the decision were not authorized to publicly discuss the move before the official announcement and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ukrainian officials have asked for the weapons to aid their campaign to push through lines of Russian troops and make gains in the ongoing counteroffensive. Russian forces are already using cluster munitions on the battlefield, U.S. officials have said.

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, some cluster munitions leave behind “bomblets’’ that have a high rate of failure to explode — up to 40% in some cases. U.S. officials said Thursday that the rate of unexploded ordnance for the munitions that will be going to Ukraine is less than 3% and therefore will mean fewer threats left behind to civilians.

Cluster bombs can be fired by artillery that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine, and the Pentagon has a large stockpile of them.

The last large-scale American use of cluster bombs was during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, according to the Pentagon. But U.S. forces considered them a key weapon during the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, according to Human Rights Watch. In the first three years of that conflict, it is estimated the U.S.-led coalition dropped more than 1,500 cluster bombs in Afghanistan.

Proponents of banning cluster bombs say they kill indiscriminately and endanger civilians long after their use. Groups have raised alarms about Russia’s use of the munitions in Ukraine.

A convention banning the use of cluster bombs has been joined by more than 120 countries who agreed not to use, produce, transfer or stockpile the weapons and to clear them after they’ve been used.

The United States, Russia and Ukraine are among the countries that have not signed on.

It is not clear how America’s NATO allies would view the U.S. providing cluster bombs to Ukraine and whether the issue might prove divisive for their largely united support of Kyiv. More than two-thirds of the 30 countries in the alliance are signatories of the 2010 convention on cluster munitions.

Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense focusing on Russia and Ukraine, recently testified to Congress that the Pentagon has assessed that such munitions would help Kyiv press through Russia’s dug-in positions.