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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
On July 07 2023 18:54 Magic Powers wrote: Well, thanks for giving us a brief glimpse into how brainwashed exactly some people, like you, are. He used to advertise his stream on TL, his stream banner is a picture of Putin and his latest stream is called "9/11 was an inside job". Yeah, this guy is far far gone. | ||
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ZeroByte13
801 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
On July 07 2023 21:40 ZeroByte13 wrote: But what is the consensus or overall feeling here - how successful the counter-offensive probably will be and what you'd expect to change in next, say, 2 months? I have an impression that many here became a bit more reserved and cautious in their predictions. It's difficult to say due to the media blackout but if the unofficial Ukrainian/Russian sources are anything to go by, the situation looks rather bleak for the Russians. I'm personally quite optimistic about the counter-offensive and think the southern front may collapse in the next two months. How big of an impact it has on the war as a whole depends on the following political turmoil in Russia. If Ukraine cuts the land bridge and destroys the Kerch bridge, losing Crimea is only a matter of time. The Russian elites may then finally realise that the war in completely unwinnable and someone may have another go at a coup. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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ZeroByte13
801 Posts
So many people said "it's surely this, so this is what will happen" and then it didn't happen at all. Nobody could predict correctly everything or even most of how it all panned out, it seems - and this is with like half a dozen of very different theories. | ||
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Simberto
Germany12086 Posts
On July 08 2023 01:04 ZeroByte13 wrote: Yeah, this entire situation is very weird. Feels like we're missing many details. So many people said "it's surely this, so this is what will happen" and then it didn't happen at all. Nobody could predict correctly everything or even most of how it all panned out, it seems - and this is with like half a dozen of very different theories. Pretty sure that that is how war works in general. Because if anyone public can predict how stuff will go, so can both sides. Which means that the side that would be losing in that path will try their best to avoid it from happening, meaning stuff will play out differently. I doubt that war is ever completely predictable even for the professionals with top-level information. To expect it to be predictable for people without deep sources in both militaries is strange. And the same goes for mutinies like this. And then everyone is making decisions based on bad information, and not all decisions are 100% rational. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8281 Posts
On July 08 2023 01:43 Simberto wrote: and not all decisions are 100% rational. This is likely the hammer on the nail. People expect these guys to be acting with some kind of rationale, and they just aren't. Emotions are high, IQ is low, and people act with a kind of randomness that is just impossible to predict. | ||
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pmp10
3401 Posts
On July 07 2023 21:40 ZeroByte13 wrote: But what is the consensus or overall feeling here - how successful the counter-offensive probably will be and what you'd expect to change in next, say, 2 months? I have an impression that many here became a bit more reserved and cautious in their predictions. Militarily I wouldn't expect significant changes. Ukraine will make some progress but nowhere near enough to threaten the corridor. With Crimea still safe, Russia will have no reason to give-up anything, meaning no chances for negotiated settlement. I expect the west will choose to freeze the conflict rather than fight a forever-war by proxy. | ||
KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On July 08 2023 02:51 pmp10 wrote: Militarily I wouldn't expect significant changes. Ukraine will make some progress but nowhere near enough to threaten the corridor. With Crimea still safe, Russia will have no reason to give-up anything, meaning no chances for negotiated settlement. I expect the west will choose to freeze the conflict rather than fight a forever-war by proxy. Next 2 months <> forever. Russia can keep going for 2 months but I don’t know that they can keep going for years with the way that they’re burning through their Soviet inheritance and plugging deficits with special levies and seizures. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On July 08 2023 02:51 pmp10 wrote: Militarily I wouldn't expect significant changes. Ukraine will make some progress but nowhere near enough to threaten the corridor. With Crimea still safe, Russia will have no reason to give-up anything, meaning no chances for negotiated settlement. I expect the west will choose to freeze the conflict rather than fight a forever-war by proxy. I don't understand the idea that the west will want to freeze the conflict in any way. They've already had the hardest time when it comes to adjusting to the new normal of a cut off russia to the European economy. To get any sort of moral consideration out the window exporting arms to Ukraine creates at the least a form of stimulus to western economies specifically in the kind of domestic production and employment sectors. You can sell higher taxes to a public to pay for a war in Ukraine on a moral basis and then spend that on economic activity. You can secure sweatheart deals from your MIC's to get their product advertised for the world stage of western arms that Ukraine is right now. The refugees have already been in these EU countries and are integrating into their societies. You don't have the same kind of anti immigration sentiment for Ukranians that you saw with muslism Migrants. I would argue the western world is benefiting greatly from this proxy war. Where do you see/ what makes you think they'll want to freeze the conflict? | ||
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
Because the situation in Ukraine is stable, it's hard to see the effects of Western support. Justifying further spending is going to get harder and harder. Some governments might indeed prefer to freeze the conflict because it would save them a lot of money and the result would be the same in the short term. "If Ukraine can't push Russia out, why not make it sign a cease-fire with Russia so we can stop burning money and start spending it on something actually useful?". | ||
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On July 08 2023 05:05 Sent. wrote: Maybe the West in general is benefiting but most of those obvious benefits are going to the US. It's not that great for the old Europe and it didn't really need an extra reason to increase public spending because it was already planning to spend billions on post-covid recovery programs and development of sustainable economy. Plenty of countries also can't make any profit from the war because their military production is either nonexistent or almost completely focused on domestic needs. Because the situation in Ukraine is stable, it's hard to see the effects of Western support. Justifying further spending is going to get harder and harder. Some governments might indeed prefer to freeze the conflict because it would save them a lot of money and the result would be the same in the short term. "If Ukraine can't push Russia out, why not make it sign a cease-fire with Russia so we can stop burning money and start spending it on something actually useful?". A Ukrainian victory in this war means Ukraine in the EU, whatever happens after Ukraine does not have a path forward that does not include entry into the Europeans economic zone. The stability of the conflict just increases the value for money that more aid means. Not all the nations in the EU are donating everything they have but when you have an organization in the EU the aggregate wins over the individual. That would be a transformative inclusion for the Union on many levels economically and politically. A big issue before the war was Poland and Hungry teaming up to avoid punishments from the EU congress. A big issue was a dependence on russian gas, russian resources, and the memories of eastern Europeans of the Russians jackboot. A Ukrainian victory ends all of that. The US is in this war for the smoke. Its hard to explain how deranged Us media in all forms has portrayed the righteousness of a war against russia. I only wish tom clancy could have held on long enough to see this war. | ||
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pmp10
3401 Posts
On July 08 2023 03:39 Sermokala wrote: I would argue the western world is benefiting greatly from this proxy war. Where do you see/ what makes you think they'll want to freeze the conflict? That maybe true taking western world as a united geopolitical force but in practice the costs are distributed unevenly. Just look at Europe - the far-right parties are gaining in power and most of them are Russia-friendly. That is in large part consequence of economic pain, the old consensus of growth for votes has simply broken down. But more important is what alternative is there? What is your route towards Ukrainian victory? If 60 bilion $ of military aid can only produce a stalemate then how much more will you need to actually push Russia out? By the looks of things that aid would need to be tripled and maintained long-term. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On July 08 2023 15:56 pmp10 wrote: That maybe true taking western world as a united geopolitical force but in practice the costs are distributed unevenly. Just look at Europe - the far-right parties are gaining in power and most of them are Russia-friendly. That is in large part consequence of economic pain, the old consensus of growth for votes has simply broken down. But more important is what alternative is there? What is your route towards Ukrainian victory? If 60 bilion $ of military aid can only produce a stalemate then how much more will you need to actually push Russia out? By the looks of things that aid would need to be tripled and maintained long-term. The aid hasn't produced a stalemate, it has helped minimize losses and speed up counter-offensives. The stalemate wasn't accomplished by the aid, it was accomplished by Ukraine. We don't know how long it'll take until the next counter-offensive becomes clearly visible on the map. We've seen signs of it lately, but it's a similarly slow process as the one of last year. In 2022 it took many months until later in the year for Ukraine to be able to exploit major holes in Russia's defense. We have to show at least the same patience this year, but possibly until 2024. Anything sooner sets a completely unrealistic standard. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On July 08 2023 15:56 pmp10 wrote: That maybe true taking western world as a united geopolitical force but in practice the costs are distributed unevenly. Just look at Europe - the far-right parties are gaining in power and most of them are Russia-friendly. That is in large part consequence of economic pain, the old consensus of growth for votes has simply broken down. But more important is what alternative is there? What is your route towards Ukrainian victory? If 60 bilion $ of military aid can only produce a stalemate then how much more will you need to actually push Russia out? By the looks of things that aid would need to be tripled and maintained long-term. My route to victory is the same as our route to victory in afghanistan. Yes we flood the country with more and more aid until russia is defeated. It worked the first time it can work again. This time however we will make sure that Ukraine goes into the EU and is reconstructed properly instead of leaving them out to dry once the shooting the russians part stops. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On July 09 2023 03:18 Sermokala wrote: It helps Ukraine that it is right next to the EU. The EU has every reason to want Ukraine to be a stable healthy country, this conflict isn't so much about Russia itself invading others as it is about this happening on the direct border of 'the west'. Unlike a sand box half the world away that no one really cared about.My route to victory is the same as our route to victory in afghanistan. Yes we flood the country with more and more aid until russia is defeated. It worked the first time it can work again. This time however we will make sure that Ukraine goes into the EU and is reconstructed properly instead of leaving them out to dry once the shooting the russians part stops. | ||
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