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On June 25 2023 23:17 [Phantom] wrote: There is one thing that is clear. We’re being lied to. We don’t know what actually happened.
As much as we’d want it to be true, they are not stupid. If this situation doesn’t make sense, and the deal doesn’t make sense, it’s because we’re missing a lot of information. They wouldn’t have made a deal so fast if it didn’t make sense for both parties.
Just keep that in mind.
Agreed, prigozhin must have some kind of assurance against putin, or he's reallyyy stupid
He miscalculated, doesn't mean he had better options. Had Ukrainian offensive been successful then the Crimean corridor would have been cut-off by now and Russian people far more receptive of 'conqueror of Bakhmut' arriving in Moscow to set matters straight. As things stood, he was about to lose control of Wagner anyway. The deal is his best bet to save his neck and some of his fortune, even if it is a long shot.
I don't know how anyone would think the Ukrainians could cut off Crimea in a few days. The Russians have had a long time to prepare.
The best bet to win is not to run head first with a massive army into entrenched positions, artillery fire and minefields, hoping for some miracle.
We need to be realistic about it, it's been almost 3 weeks with 1st lines of defense still holding and Russian reserves not yet committed. Chances for this offensive producing a strategic difference are now very slim. I bet the politicians are already wondering on what comes next.
Your conclusion in no way follows from your observations.
On June 26 2023 20:31 2Pacalypse- wrote: Perun did a highly analytical recap of the Ukraine's counter offensive so far, if you want to get a better sense of how things are going and what to expect in near future:
Long video, took me a while to get through it, but definitively very good analysis and recap of how the counter offensive and war in general is going so far. Tries his best to look through the fog of war, based on evidence available, but simultaneously is clear about the parts he doesn't know, or where he believes the statements to be fictitious
Ukraine claims that Russian forces fired chemical agents at them only for the wind to blow it back into their trenches.... This happened in WW1, again time is a flat circle..
Russian forces in eastern Ukraine fired a banned suffocating chemical gas at Ukrainian troops, but it ended up being blown back towards them by the wind, a Ukrainian military official said.
Russians fired a "chemical aerosol munition with suffocating effect on one of the positions," Valeriy Shershen, a spokesperson for the Joint Press Center of the Tavria Defense Force, said, according to Ukrinform's translation. But then "the wind blew in the enemy's direction."
Shershen made the comments on Ukrainian TV, according to Ukrinform, with his comments picked up by other Ukrainian media, including by the Kyiv Post, The New Voice of Ukraine, Pravda, and state broadcaster Suspilne.
Suspilne and Pravda reported that Shershen claimed the chemical was a prohibited one.
Shershen did not identify the gas, nor say if any Ukrainian or Russian troops were affected.
But he did say the incident happened near Marinka, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region.
Ukraine has previously accused Russia of using banned chemicals as part of its full-scale invasion of the country, which began in February 2022.
This includes claims that Russia used phosphorus — the use of which in civilian areas is a war crime — in the key city of Bakhmut in May, and also dropped chloropicrin grenades on Ukrainian troops in December.
Top US officials said at the end of last year that they were concerned Russia would use chemical weapons in Ukraine, especially considering the country has previously been accused of poisoning domestic critics, Politico reported in November.
Marinka, which is around 80 miles from Bakhmut, has been the scene of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces, and photos published in March show it has largely been reduced to a wasteland.
Russia said that as of the start of June it had taken most of the city.
But in his comments, Shershen said that Ukrainian forces are still fighting there, as the country tries to push back against Russia with its long-awaited counteroffensive.
Chemical weapons are a tough spot on the escalation ladder. It’s not like we can give chemical weapons to Ukraine to respond but they’re not as flashy as a tactical nuke so NATO can’t easily intervene over them.
On June 27 2023 00:58 JimmiC wrote: The story on Putins Chef is still so strange. He has not made it to Belarus yet, did he pull a fast one and escape some where? Did he get disappeared by Putin? Is he planning his next move? Hiding in whole?
This whole thing is crazy.
I'm also wondering, but no one knows his whereabouts. I think he was last seen in Rostov at military HQ in the back of a car.
So... it appears Putin is going back on his word about amnesty towards Wagner leadership etc. But Wagner can leave for Belarus and so forth that they are patriots(almost as if he is thankful that they didn't kill him...)
So what is stopping Wagner, who gets to keep their weapons and so on, from basically taking over a country and trying again.
On June 27 2023 04:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So... it appears Putin is going back on his word about amnesty towards Wagner leadership etc. But Wagner can leave for Belarus and so forth that they are patriots(almost as if he is thankful that they didn't kill him...)
So what is stopping Wagner, who gets to keep their weapons and so on, from basically taking over a country and trying again.
Because the more info is coming out, the more it becomes clear they had absolutely no shot at achieving anything and that their numbers were way below what they claimed. Prigozhin spoke of 25k, wagner sources of 2 groups of 5k each, last somewhat reliable number I have seen was 8k at most.... They could at best have weakened russias position in ukraine and then get killed, something that is not worth fighting for from their perspective. And when you try to have a limited conflict between 2 factions and explicitly not a coup, but the government makes it clear they see it as a coup and you have to bail asap, trying again is not something high on your list or priorities.
Not to mention that the whole "putin going back on his words" is all rumours at this point. The footage that is out there so far could just as much be isolated instances of the russian army killing rebellious wagner guys just like wagner did extrajudicial killings of wagner POWs that supposedly defected / surrendered.
They failed massively and are now in a weaker position than ever, that is what is keeping them from trying again.
On June 27 2023 04:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So... it appears Putin is going back on his word about amnesty towards Wagner leadership etc. But Wagner can leave for Belarus and so forth that they are patriots(almost as if he is thankful that they didn't kill him...)
So what is stopping Wagner, who gets to keep their weapons and so on, from basically taking over a country and trying again.
Because the more info is coming out, the more it becomes clear they had absolutely no shot at achieving anything and that their numbers were way below what they claimed. Prigozhin spoke of 25k, wagner sources of 2 groups of 5k each, last somewhat reliable number I have seen was 8k at most.... They could at best have weakened russias position in ukraine and then get killed, something that is not worth fighting for from their perspective. And when you try to have a limited conflict between 2 factions and explicitly not a coup, but the government makes it clear they see it as a coup and you have to bail asap, trying again is not something high on your list or priorities.
Not to mention that the whole "putin going back on his words" is all rumours at this point. The footage that is out there so far could just as much be isolated instances of the russian army killing rebellious wagner guys just like wagner did extrajudicial killings of wagner POWs that supposedly defected / surrendered.
They failed massively and are now in a weaker position than ever, that is what is keeping them from trying again.
Also, their shot was the best they were ever going to have. If they try again, Putin will be better prepared, and they will achieve even less.
On June 27 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I think they showed people are willing to go against Putin and if it does not work the consequences are not that bad. Someone with more power and thought could pull it off and they know many of the Wagner troops will support them along with who ever they have.
There's tons of people willing to go against Putin has been from the start.
The problem is what happens when Putin targets their families and brings out the air force. Much harder to stay committed to the cause after that.
Still, it does demonstrate that there are cracks starting to fester in Russian morale. We already knew they were there but this whole thing has shown beyond any doubt that they are there and they are getting worse. Even Putin can't bullshit his way around that to the Russian public.
Have to wonder what it will have to take for them to finally have enough.
On June 27 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I think they showed people are willing to go against Putin and if it does not work the consequences are not that bad. Someone with more power and thought could pull it off and they know many of the Wagner troops will support them along with who ever they have.
Someone more powerful would be the MOD because wagner is/was the largest military force that isn't the government. They weren't nearly strong enough and are probably kept alive by the fact that there is a war, so fighters are needed, and them still having at least some noticeable public support. And its not like prigozhin was not punished, without wagner he loses most of his influence, and he pissed of some powerful people. How wagners military leadership fares is also yet to see, so the consequences already seem bad to me, just not TV show levels of "burn them all" bad.
On June 27 2023 05:42 Magic Powers wrote: A ruthless dictator showing graciousness to those he previously declared traitors is always a sign of danger. Something's not right.
There is a war going on, calling people traitors after they stand down doesn't help you absorbing them and their comrades into your military. To me that seems a boring, but very good explanation for why someone would avoid antagonising potentially up to 25k fighters because of the acts of 25k10k8k whatever is left after you separate the ones that just followed orders from the ones that actually were committed. Generally speaking, you rarely punish the broad body of a rebellion, but key elements. The last reference for that is the failed military coup in turkey. Leadership got purged, soldiers that just followed orders and in the end refused to fight against the government were largely spared. At least as far as I am aware.
And as I said, we have to see how wagner leadership actually fares. There is already footage of executions and it is not clear yet if its the military enacting arbitrary revenge, if its targeted killings, or a covert purge. Taking care of the leaders in secrecy would have the benefit of not upsetting the population that sees wagner positively, wouldn't scare off the seemingly majority of wagner troops that did not take part in the attempted attack on the MOD, and would still send a strong message to other potential rebellious people. So it could just simply be the best move available in a bad situation.
On June 27 2023 06:32 Artesimo wrote: There is a war going on, calling people traitors after they stand down doesn't help you absorbing them and their comrades into your military. To me that seems a boring, but very good explanation for why someone would avoid antagonising potentially up to 25k fighters because of the acts of 25k10k8k whatever is left after you separate the ones that just followed orders from the ones that actually were committed. Generally speaking, you rarely punish the broad body of a rebellion, but key elements. The last reference for that is the failed military coup in turkey. Leadership got purged, soldiers that just followed orders and in the end refused to fight against the government were largely spared. At least as far as I am aware.
I think that's why it seems weak, he's letting them off because he needs them and needing common people isn't a good look for a dictator.
Throwing away 25k of his own loyal men in a bloody purge to eliminate 25k more of Wagner may not be rational but it'd sure as hell send a message to the people. Whereas rationally letting them all off because there's a war on and he needs every man makes sense, but it hardly shows strength.
On June 27 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I think they showed people are willing to go against Putin and if it does not work the consequences are not that bad. Someone with more power and thought could pull it off and they know many of the Wagner troops will support them along with who ever they have.
Someone more powerful would be the MOD because wagner is/was the largest military force that isn't the government. They weren't nearly strong enough and are probably kept alive by the fact that there is a war, so fighters are needed, and them still having at least some noticeable public support. And its not like prigozhin was not punished, without wagner he loses most of his influence, and he pissed of some powerful people. How wagners military leadership fares is also yet to see, so the consequences already seem bad to me, just not TV show levels of "burn them all" bad.
On June 27 2023 05:42 Magic Powers wrote: A ruthless dictator showing graciousness to those he previously declared traitors is always a sign of danger. Something's not right.
There is a war going on, calling people traitors after they stand down doesn't help you absorbing them and their comrades into your military. To me that seems a boring, but very good explanation for why someone would avoid antagonising potentially up to 25k fighters because of the acts of 25k10k8k whatever is left after you separate the ones that just followed orders from the ones that actually were committed. Generally speaking, you rarely punish the broad body of a rebellion, but key elements. The last reference for that is the failed military coup in turkey. Leadership got purged, soldiers that just followed orders and in the end refused to fight against the government were largely spared. At least as far as I am aware.
And as I said, we have to see how wagner leadership actually fares. There is already footage of executions and it is not clear yet if its the military enacting arbitrary revenge, if its targeted killings, or a covert purge. Taking care of the leaders in secrecy would have the benefit of not upsetting the population that sees wagner positively, wouldn't scare off the seemingly majority of wagner troops that did not take part in the attempted attack on the MOD, and would still send a strong message to other potential rebellious people. So it could just simply be the best move available in a bad situation.
I think this is a good take, but that's worrying. The whole time I kept thinking people are underestimating Putin and Russia, but I still saw a bunch of learning hurdles for them. I'm not exactly thrilled about a scenario in which Putin can quickly overcome his impulsiveness and act with greater foresight. This would imply two things: that he's aware of the true situation at the frontlines and the general direction of the war, and that he's generally learning and improving. Not good.
On June 27 2023 04:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So... it appears Putin is going back on his word about amnesty towards Wagner leadership etc. But Wagner can leave for Belarus and so forth that they are patriots(almost as if he is thankful that they didn't kill him...)
So what is stopping Wagner, who gets to keep their weapons and so on, from basically taking over a country and trying again.
Wagner leadership and Wagner rank and file are different thing. And even their leadership isn't so monolithic, people with ties to Wagner say that some of their top brass can't be reached since Thursday, which could mean they are either dead, detained or in hiding somewhere. Also "Wagner's weapons" (as well as supplies) are the courtesy of Russian MoD and military production complex. Without it, they will able to fight with only what's left on them. Also Putin is clearly trying to pull Wagner's troops back to Russian Army ranks, since well-trained and experienced assault infantry is not something lying on the ground.
On June 27 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I think they showed people are willing to go against Putin and if it does not work the consequences are not that bad. Someone with more power and thought could pull it off and they know many of the Wagner troops will support them along with who ever they have.
There are three forces more powerful than Wagner in Russia, them being Army, Rosgvardia and FSB, and their leadership is firmly in the same boat as Putin. Also many of the Wagner troops were actually against this stuff, and if their PMC wouldn't exist in the same way it was before, they could be even less eager to rally behind any anti-government force. Especially if they are pardoned and given new opportunities within the MoD. They are not hardcore anti-Putin rebels, they were just Prig's loyalists, but he is now seems to be gone in exile.
On June 27 2023 05:42 Magic Powers wrote: A ruthless dictator showing graciousness to those he previously declared traitors is always a sign of danger. Something's not right.
Putin is anything but ruthless now. In fact, the main issue with him among the Russian hardline patriots is being too soft and compromising in both internal and external affair. The start of the war itself is the only big surprise he actually brougth since Crimea, probably.
On June 27 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I think they showed people are willing to go against Putin and if it does not work the consequences are not that bad. Someone with more power and thought could pull it off and they know many of the Wagner troops will support them along with who ever they have.
There's tons of people willing to go against Putin has been from the start.
The problem is what happens when Putin targets their families and brings out the air force. Much harder to stay committed to the cause after that.
Still, it does demonstrate that there are cracks starting to fester in Russian morale. We already knew they were there but this whole thing has shown beyond any doubt that they are there and they are getting worse. Even Putin can't bullshit his way around that to the Russian public.
Have to wonder what it will have to take for them to finally have enough.
While attitude among the ordinary people was different, many either blamed Prig as a traitor during wartime (a lot of them dubbed PMC "Wagner" as PMC "Vlasov"), or, at least, considered his actions untimely and unnecessary, all that despite begrudging attitude towards military and political leadership. Especially after he started shooting down the helos. All elites did either shut up or rally behind Putin. Most of the media did also stand neutral or pro-Kremlin, few Wagner supporters were from Prigozhin's network from the start. So if any anti-government forces would want to make a move, this was their best bet in the forseeable future. They may not have couple brigades of battle-hardened mercs rushing Moscow next time around.
All in all, considering Ukrainian offensive on the front, I think Kremlin went out as a winner in this situation, despite some image losses. Since alternatives for it would be: 1) Submitting to Prig's demands, further dismantling Putin's own authority; 2) Turn Rostov-on-Don and Moscow outskirts into a battlefield against at least few thousand soldiers, whose expertise is urban combat, while it's own combat units are tied up in Ukraine.
On June 27 2023 06:32 Artesimo wrote: There is a war going on, calling people traitors after they stand down doesn't help you absorbing them and their comrades into your military. To me that seems a boring, but very good explanation for why someone would avoid antagonising potentially up to 25k fighters because of the acts of 25k10k8k whatever is left after you separate the ones that just followed orders from the ones that actually were committed. Generally speaking, you rarely punish the broad body of a rebellion, but key elements. The last reference for that is the failed military coup in turkey. Leadership got purged, soldiers that just followed orders and in the end refused to fight against the government were largely spared. At least as far as I am aware.
I think that's why it seems weak, he's letting them off because he needs them and needing common people isn't a good look for a dictator.
Throwing away 25k of his own loyal men in a bloody purge to eliminate 25k more of Wagner may not be rational but it'd sure as hell send a message to the people. Whereas rationally letting them all off because there's a war on and he needs every man makes sense, but it hardly shows strength.
I feel like you completely miss that putins image to the russian public is different from his image to us. You might see him as a brutal military dictator who only rules through bloodshed, but that is not true for the majority of russians I think. I don't think he has to slaughter 25k to not look weak to the russian public, and I think he doesn't have to do that to send a message to others lusting for power. I agree that it is weaker than going the comical evil route of killing 25k, but to me its weak in the same way that not going for complete overkill is weak - you can still achieve your goal without pissing away resources and weakening your position more than with the "weaker" response. As long as you achieve your goals, it doesn't matter that you could have achieved some more, even when ignoring the absolutely unreasonable costs a big purge would have.
It is technically weaker, but that doesn't necessarily matter. Lets say in a month we learn all of wagners leadership that was involved with the coup is either dead, imprisoned, or has loved ones sitting in a FSB dungeon as hostages. Sure killing all 25k would still be the stronger message, but in the same sense that me being 178cm and you being 180 makes you taller. It would be a negligible difference, and going for excruciating and dangerous leg surgery to make up for it would have been stupid by all measures. And so I would refuse the notion that I am short because I did not go the full 2cm, despite accepting that I am shorter than you are.
I think I would feel the same for just about every other scenario in which it turns out that wagner got nothing but keeping their lives at the end of all of this, with their influence heavily neutered.
This was never going to end with a large fight to the death, Wagner's only chance was to make a snowball of disatisfaction and have a large chunk of the army and FSB on their side by the time they reached Moscow outskirts so that it would be suicide for Rosgvardia to oppose them.
You know that phenomenon where if there's music in public it's the 2nd person to start dancing that has the biggest effect on others joining? That's what Prigozhin lacked, there was never a 2nd dancer. Worse still, everyone pretended they can't even hear the music.
I considered that maybe he did a lot of work through back-channels and gears could be spinning his way behind the scenes without us seeing it, but that wasn't the case, it was all as it appeared. One dude dancing on the beach with everyone just watching him like he' mad.
It's not a great look for Putin but aĺl things considered it's difficult to call his position weak when no one took this opportunity against him, cause I doubt there's gonna be a bigger one.
EPT
