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On March 27 2023 06:12 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So now we know the reason why the Ukraine high command did not want to give up Bakhmut. They were bleeding Russia white not only of recently mobilized forces but whatever is left of regular ones as well. Now Russia appears to having to try and go on a defensive stance for the time being.
We knew this long ago, it was one of the main points of holding Bakhmut, if not perhaps the only point.
After rewatching the timeline of the battle for Stalingrad I think there's also the possibility that Russian forces (like the German forces in WW2) will be too concentrated in Bakhmut and face a threat of encirclement. But this is speculation since a counter offensive by the AFU hasn't started yet and also because it would require weeks or months of build-up of Ukrainian troops at the flanks, which no one has been able to confirm. I firmly believe though that this is a very likely consideration from the Ukrainian command.
On March 25 2023 22:01 maybenexttime wrote: Some new developments regarding the Nord Stream attack. An investigation by t-online.de, not sure how credible they are.
The article reports on an alleged incident involving the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which carries natural gas from Russia to Germany. According to anonymous sources cited in the article, a group of divers planted explosive devices on the pipeline in an attempt to sabotage it. The sources suggest that the divers were working on behalf of a foreign intelligence service, possibly Ukraine. However, the article notes that there is no concrete evidence to support these allegations.
The article provides details on the ships that were allegedly involved in the operation. One of the most important ships, according to the article, was the submarine support ship "SS-750", which carries a deep-submergence rescue vehicle named "AS-26" that can evacuate the crew of crashed submarines in an emergency. The article also notes that two other ships suspected of being involved in the operation, the rescue tugs "SB-123" and "Alexander Frolov", left the port of Kaliningrad around the same time frame as the alleged incident. These ships reportedly have cargo cranes on deck that could lower heavy explosive devices or mines into the water. The article notes that the allegations of sabotage come at a time of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and amid concerns about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and its potential impact on European energy security and geopolitics.
Wait what. Some random guerilla fighter dudes had access to Submarines now as well as two other ships with cargo cranes? That's a lot of stuff
Also T-Online is like the service website (news, email, stuff like that) from Telekom. So it should be rather credible
On March 25 2023 22:01 maybenexttime wrote: Some new developments regarding the Nord Stream attack. An investigation by t-online.de, not sure how credible they are.
The article reports on an alleged incident involving the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which carries natural gas from Russia to Germany. According to anonymous sources cited in the article, a group of divers planted explosive devices on the pipeline in an attempt to sabotage it. The sources suggest that the divers were working on behalf of a foreign intelligence service, possibly Ukraine. However, the article notes that there is no concrete evidence to support these allegations.
The article provides details on the ships that were allegedly involved in the operation. One of the most important ships, according to the article, was the submarine support ship "SS-750", which carries a deep-submergence rescue vehicle named "AS-26" that can evacuate the crew of crashed submarines in an emergency. The article also notes that two other ships suspected of being involved in the operation, the rescue tugs "SB-123" and "Alexander Frolov", left the port of Kaliningrad around the same time frame as the alleged incident. These ships reportedly have cargo cranes on deck that could lower heavy explosive devices or mines into the water. The article notes that the allegations of sabotage come at a time of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and amid concerns about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and its potential impact on European energy security and geopolitics.
Wait what. Some random guerilla fighter dudes had access to Submarines now as well as two other ships with cargo cranes? That's a lot of stuff
Also T-Online is like the service website (news, email, stuff like that) from Telekom. So it should be rather credible
Sorry for the confusion. I wanted to be cheeky with that ChatGPT summary. I should've done one myself. The mentioned vessels belong to Russia's Baltic fleet stationed in Kaliningrad, so not guerrilla but proper Russian military.
UK Intel has stated that Russia's 10th Tank Regiment has suffered large losses of tanks in the ongoing battle of Avdiivka. Mainly due to continuous frontal assaults.
Russia has suffered heavy losses in its assault on Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, the British Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.
"Russia’s 10th Tank Regiment has likely lost a large proportion of its tanks while attempting to surround Avdiivka from the south," the British Defense Ministry said in its daily intelligence update.
The ministry said the losses were likely due "tactically flawed frontal assaults" similar to Russia’s failed attack on nearby Vuhledar.
The 10th Tank Regiment is part of Russia’s 3rd Army Corps, which was formed last year after the invasion of Ukraine.
"Numerous open-source accounts suggested that 3rd Army Corps has been particularly dogged by problems with ill-discipline and poor morale," the British intelligence update said.
"Despite a likely period of training in Belarus, the formation still appears to display limited combat effectiveness."
On March 29 2023 02:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: UK Intel has stated that Russia's 10th Tank Regiment has suffered large losses of tanks in the ongoing battle of Avdiivka. Mainly due to continuous frontal assaults.
Russia has suffered heavy losses in its assault on Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, the British Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.
"Russia’s 10th Tank Regiment has likely lost a large proportion of its tanks while attempting to surround Avdiivka from the south," the British Defense Ministry said in its daily intelligence update.
The ministry said the losses were likely due "tactically flawed frontal assaults" similar to Russia’s failed attack on nearby Vuhledar.
The 10th Tank Regiment is part of Russia’s 3rd Army Corps, which was formed last year after the invasion of Ukraine.
"Numerous open-source accounts suggested that 3rd Army Corps has been particularly dogged by problems with ill-discipline and poor morale," the British intelligence update said.
"Despite a likely period of training in Belarus, the formation still appears to display limited combat effectiveness."
The dogmatic way of issuing orders and having them followed blindly is going well for Ukraine. Thankfully, the extra training is just for adding discipline, not really improving effectiveness as far as we can tell.
I almost feel sorry for the poor souls being thrown into the frontline.
You would think that a modern country such as Russia would consider giving their soldiers decent training, especially considering that the Ukranian soldiers are somewhat experienced now...
On March 29 2023 08:57 AssyrianKing wrote: I almost feel sorry for the poor souls being thrown into the frontline.
You would think that a modern country such as Russia would consider giving their soldiers decent training, especially considering that the Ukranian soldiers are somewhat experienced now...
We are "lucky" they are failing so hard with unlimited ressources. It is a nightmare, but not the nightmare it would be if Ukraine fell.
I don't know the pain threshold for Russian population is, how many useless death of sons, husbands... Will there remain only non-complient Russians. Will they talk in 20 years "Remember how great of an idea was to try to invade Ukraine?".
Absurdity of war is known but seeing it in our modern time is weird. Given access to information means nothing if there is not the good enough level of history education behind.
On March 29 2023 08:57 AssyrianKing wrote: I almost feel sorry for the poor souls being thrown into the frontline.
You would think that a modern country such as Russia would consider giving their soldiers decent training, especially considering that the Ukranian soldiers are somewhat experienced now...
We are "lucky" they are failing so hard with unlimited ressources. It is a nightmare, but not the nightmare it would be if Ukraine fell.
I don't know the pain threshold for Russian population is, how many useless death of sons, husbands... Will there remain only non-complient Russians. Will they talk in 20 years "Remember how great of an idea was to try to invade Ukraine?".
Absurdity of war is known but seeing it in our modern time is weird. Given access to information means nothing if there is not the good enough level of history education behind.
Judging from the amount of denial after WW2, some of which exists to this day, I'd say Russians are unlikely to change their minds. It's hard to relearn history after falling for propaganda. Many little false beliefs that are never corrected will stick around in the subconscious of many people and guide their views. Although I think the general attitude towards politics and history is the most important thing that needs changing. For WW2, this is why for example the Nuremberg trials were so important. It was about preventing future evil by addressing the past with complete honesty in an open trial. Something similar would have to happen after this war, but I don't know how.
On March 29 2023 08:57 AssyrianKing wrote: I almost feel sorry for the poor souls being thrown into the frontline.
You would think that a modern country such as Russia would consider giving their soldiers decent training, especially considering that the Ukranian soldiers are somewhat experienced now...
We are "lucky" they are failing so hard with unlimited ressources. It is a nightmare, but not the nightmare it would be if Ukraine fell.
I don't know the pain threshold for Russian population is, how many useless death of sons, husbands... Will there remain only non-complient Russians. Will they talk in 20 years "Remember how great of an idea was to try to invade Ukraine?".
Absurdity of war is known but seeing it in our modern time is weird. Given access to information means nothing if there is not the good enough level of history education behind.
Judging from the amount of denial after WW2, some of which exists to this day, I'd say Russians are unlikely to change their minds. It's hard to relearn history after falling for propaganda. Many little false beliefs that are never corrected will stick around in the subconscious of many people and guide their views. Although I think the general attitude towards politics and history is the most important thing that needs changing. For WW2, this is why for example the Nuremberg trials were so important. It was about preventing future evil by addressing the past with complete honesty in an open trial. Something similar would have to happen after this war, but I don't know how.
We have to remember that many Russians still rank Stalin among the top 3 leaders of the country ever. The guy who was responsible for 3x more deaths than Hitler...
And in other news, seems like Ukraine might be preparing for another counter-offensive, they struck 7 Russian bases in the south within the past 2 days using HIMARS (and Russian commander of the region was dismissed for incompetence as a result). Also, according to some info a lot of Wagner contracts are due to expire this or next month (since they're mostly 6 month contracts and most were signed during the last mobilization so september/october), I would assume a lot of them won't get renewed since even Prigozhin seemed kinda disillusioned with the whole Bakhmut situation and hinted at Wagner Group pulling out of this war entirely.
I don't think Prigozhin has a choice, unless he want some fresh air from his balcony.
and true, my wife was never taught at school of the dark past of Stalin. They did kind of hide Stalin statues but sometimes they are just stored somewhere and forgotten.
Remember stopping on a way to a wedding in some half abandoned soviet "park?" and there was a large head of Stalin in the bushes :D
On March 29 2023 17:56 Manit0u wrote: And in other news, seems like Ukraine might be preparing for another counter-offensive.
This isn't as much a "might" as it's been officially planned for a long time, and again confirmed by Zelensky just a couple of days ago when he ordered a mobile blackout on the front lines, outright stating it was in preparation for an offensive. They don't care that Russia knows, any reasonable strategist would know a counter offensive would take place in the spring. But Ukraine doesn't want the details to be leaked
On March 29 2023 20:20 Gorsameth wrote: Yeah, its going the happen. The question is where
Toward Moscow would be comical when the whole army is digging up in Crimea :D
Well, no. Most of the Russian army still remains inside the borders. What was sent to Ukraine was just a small part of it (comprised mostly of troops Russian command views as expendable).
On March 29 2023 20:20 Gorsameth wrote: Yeah, its going the happen. The question is where
Toward Moscow would be comical when the whole army is digging up in Crimea :D
Well, no. Most of the Russian army still remains inside the borders. What was sent to Ukraine was just a small part of it (comprised mostly of troops Russian command views as expendable).
What kind of misinformation pit is that statement coming from? It's been more than a year since that particular meme has been debunked. Almost everything they have is in Ukraine, to the point where most of their borders with NATO nations or future members are pretty much left unguarded.
I mean sure, VDV and 1st Guards Tank army and all that schmuck is expendable. Doesn't mean that it isn't on paper the best that Russia has to offer. And that is unfortunately in Ukraine - and fortunately dying at a very satisfying rate.
It is hard to judge the average Russian who supports the war. They are living under a totalitarian warmonger, where public objection to the war is grounds for imprisonment or worse. It's almost a survival mechanism to support the war - if they can convince themselves that there is some good reason behind the war, they can sleep better at night. You can't use the same standards to judge people living under oppression and trying to cope.
Those outside Russia who are cheering the war on - those are just plain evil. They have a choice not to support the war, yet they do it on their own free will.
A lot of people will cheer for any war. Americans are free but they were all about Iraq.
There’s also a lot of people who just support (and in America almost as many who oppose) their government as a matter of political identity. They did polling in India and the respondents were generally unsympathetic to Ukraine but when asked if they would support their government’s hypothetical military intervention to defend Ukraine a lot of those same people said yes. They weren’t trying to say that they wanted India to fight to free Ukraine, they were trying to say that it wasn’t up to them and that they would blindly support their government in any policy.
Germany to send an additional 12 billion in military aide to Ukraine.
BERLIN, March 29 (Reuters) - The German government has agreed to send an additional 12 billion euros ($13.01 billion) worth of military support to Ukraine.
The Budget Committee of the German Bundestag gave the green light on Wednesday for the unbudgeted expenditure, which was requested by the defence ministry and the foreign office.
The additional funding includes 3.2 billion euros to be disbursed in 2023 and credit lines for the period between 2024 and 2032 amounting to some 8.8 billion euros.
"With the money, Ukraine can directly buy armaments with the support of the German government," three politicians representing the coalition government on the committee said in a statement.
"It is important to support Ukraine as long as necessary," they said.
Since the start of the Russian invasion, the German government has made available more than 14.2 billion euros in support for Ukraine, according to the foreign office.
On March 29 2023 20:20 Gorsameth wrote: Yeah, its going the happen. The question is where
Toward Moscow would be comical when the whole army is digging up in Crimea :D
Well, no. Most of the Russian army still remains inside the borders. What was sent to Ukraine was just a small part of it (comprised mostly of troops Russian command views as expendable).
Is this supposed to be a joke? They wouldn't do conscription and press-gang random schmucks if they had the majority of their army still available. Unless it's this weird cope I've seen before of "Russia has x million military aged males and can conscript them at any time, so they're only using 0,1% of their army", which completely ignores the logistics, training, available weapons, ammo, the number of officers, impact of conscripting vast number of people has on economy and internal stability etc. Can they still conscript more troops? Obviously, yes. Do they still have most of their actual army sitting somewhere in Russia? No.
Its not a joke. Russia has over 1 mln active military personel. Most of it is still inside its border manning bases and other pernament structeres and installations. Also most of of the airforce, navy and strategic detterent assets are not engaged in Ukraine. So that statement is true. However most of those troops still inside Russia are unlikely to be ever sent to Ukraine as they serve other important roles or would be of no use there. Part of it would play a role if Ukrainians entered Russia, but again, not in its entiriety. The pacific, baltic or arctic fleet for example are unlikely to be of any use in this war.
EPT
