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On February 28 2023 20:24 ZeroByte13 wrote: This seems doubtful. "operation will be on for 5 years at least" seems like a very bad plan from both 1. propaganda point of view, as this basically means "don't expect any success from this extremely costly operation any time soon" 2. realistic point of view - no need to explain, I guess, why it's super bad for the country.
I.e. what I mean is why would anyone say that even if it's true, and why would this be good for morale?
Well, this guy probably saw it in a "I have a well paid, quiet job for the next 5 years" kinda way OR he is one of the more zealous guys and actually believes the Nazi nonsense Putin was saying at the start
Five years is rather optimistic view. At the rate they're going it'll take Russia 25 years just to capture Donbas.
It's paints a different picture versus what Ardias posted earlier.
“Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel.
This is what unlimited German euros does to domestic manufacturing. That’s the mutual dependence that fossil fuel exports created.
“Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel.
This is what unlimited German euros does to domestic manufacturing. That’s the mutual dependence that fossil fuel exports created.
Yeah, i think it is impressive to see just how that strategy actually worked. It is just that no one expected Russia to simply say "Fuck it, i'll just accept my industry completely breaking", because that would have been insane, and everybody knew this.
And then they just did it, and now it plays out exactly as expected. It is strange how all of this could have easily been prevented if Russia just acted according to their self-interest. Instead they chose to kill a generation of their own men and ruin their economy.
It's paints a different picture versus what Ardias posted earlier.
“Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel.
This is what unlimited German euros does to domestic manufacturing. That’s the mutual dependence that fossil fuel exports created.
Yeah, i think it is impressive to see just how that strategy actually worked. It is just that no one expected Russia to simply say "Fuck it, i'll just accept my industry completely breaking", because that would have been insane, and everybody knew this.
And then they just did it, and now it plays out exactly as expected. It is strange how all of this could have easily been prevented if Russia just acted according to their self-interest. Instead they chose to kill a generation of their own men and ruin their economy.
Russia has spent a long time trying to become industrially/militarily self-sufficient. It did not fully work out but they are in a better position now than 10 years ago. It was a planned choice after long preparation.
Some reports from Bakhmut are beginning to trickle in. The situation is pretty dire, it seems that whatever Ukrainians have gained yesterday they've lost now. The Russians are shelling Bakhmut heavily with everything they've got, tanks, mortars, air raids 3-4 times a day. Despite all of that Ukrainians are still fighting and it seems that Russians want to take Bakhmut at any cost, throwing squad after squad into the mix despite them getting decimated.
Outside of Bakhmut Russian forces have moved into 2.5km range of the last supply route, Ukrainians are still defending it and it's usable but once that's gone they'll probably be forced to leave the city.
It's paints a different picture versus what Ardias posted earlier.
I wanted to write a long post debunking this particular "article" (which is basically "huehue, dumb Ruskies suck at everything"), but then I understood that there is no point to spend that little free time I have on that.
Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
On March 01 2023 06:26 Ardias wrote: Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
A video with no date or source? Have we really stooped this low? Come on, reliable sources people! Not random videos that might or might not be something
On March 01 2023 06:26 Ardias wrote: Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
A video with no date or source? Have we really stooped this low? Come on, reliable sources people! Not random videos that might or might not be something
It's paints a different picture versus what Ardias posted earlier.
I wanted to write a long post debunking this particular "article" (which is basically "huehue, dumb Ruskies suck at everything"), but then I understood that there is no point to spend that little free time I have on that.
Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
It’s not Russians suck, it’s an established economic principle. If you give your currency to someone then they will spend it on your labour because that’s the only thing you can buy with it. When Germany accepts Russian gas they repay Russia by providing German labour.
That necessarily reduces the demand for Russian labour in the fields that Germany exports. You can either pay a Russian a lot of money to do precision engineering or you can give Germany that gas that just comes out of the ground and they’ll do it for free. Russian industry can’t compete with a bunch of gas hungry Germans.
After a few decades the lack of demand for precision engineering has created an irreversible decline in the economic ecosystem. The ecosystem has adjusted to the ready availability of German labour and experiences a system shock when it becomes unavailable.
It’s nothing specific to Russians, this is exactly why China devalues it’s currency and hoards dollars instead of spending them on imports. By working for less than domestic industry they move economic interdependencies to China, undermining domestic manufacturing.
On March 01 2023 06:26 Ardias wrote: Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
A video with no date or source? Have we really stooped this low? Come on, reliable sources people! Not random videos that might or might not be something
"Russia / its army will collapse any day soon" vs "everything's fine, economy's going strong, we can go on for 10 years, no problems at all". Both of them are false, obviously.
Regarding less dramatic claims - only time will tell what was true and what was not.
On March 01 2023 06:26 Ardias wrote: Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
A video with no date or source? Have we really stooped this low? Come on, reliable sources people! Not random videos that might or might not be something
It's official UVZ Telegram channel.
That makes it less reliable, not more
So if Novaya Gazeta article bases their assessment of tanks on UVZ being manually made on Russian official government photos of Medvedev's visit - it's truth set in the stone, but when official UVZ channel publishes video showing working tank assembly line - it's fake. I can't even comprehend how this logic works.
It's paints a different picture versus what Ardias posted earlier.
I wanted to write a long post debunking this particular "article" (which is basically "huehue, dumb Ruskies suck at everything"), but then I understood that there is no point to spend that little free time I have on that.
Though I wish people in this thread did at least a little fact checking. For example, about the "manually made tanks" and lack of assembly line - what's this then? https://t.me/uvznews/2343
It’s not Russians suck, it’s an established economic principle. If you give your currency to someone then they will spend it on your labour because that’s the only thing you can buy with it. When Germany accepts Russian gas they repay Russia by providing German labour.
That necessarily reduces the demand for Russian labour in the fields that Germany exports. You can either pay a Russian a lot of money to do precision engineering or you can give Germany that gas that just comes out of the ground and they’ll do it for free. Russian industry can’t compete with a bunch of gas hungry Germans.
After a few decades the lack of demand for precision engineering has created an irreversible decline in the economic ecosystem. The ecosystem has adjusted to the ready availability of German labour and experiences a system shock when it becomes unavailable.
It’s nothing specific to Russians, this is exactly why China devalues it’s currency and hoards dollars instead of spending them on imports. By working for less than domestic industry they move economic interdependencies to China, undermining domestic manufacturing.
First of all, I don't know why you are pointing out Germany as Russian main military supplier or something. All Russian tank thermals up until recent years were French-made or French-based, for example. US-based electronics were also used a lot. And I'm not even starting on China.
Second, economic interdependence between countries do take place, including military sector. However since 2014, since military deals with West became problematic (Mistral amphibious ships, hello!), increased ivestments in domestic production in different sectors, including military, did take place. Yeah, the Russian labour may be less efficient (don't want to go on debate about that, let's assume it's true), but it would be much less dependant on political decisions of other countries. That's why I was pointing out previously in debates regarding arms exports, that effectiveness of different weaponry isn't directly related (or not always) to the number of it being sold or the variety of buyers, since military dependance on other parties makes you politically dependant.
Third, that artice only sources, besides aforementioned Medvedev's photos, are "anonymous contributors". I understand that this thing is common in journalism, but what makes me doubt the credibility of the article is it's overall tone and desire to present every part of Russian industry as shit. For example, about Russia's inability to produce helicopter engines, mentioned in the article - what's VK-2500 then? I would like to have more proofs that this engine is based on imported elements.
On March 01 2023 18:12 Ardias wrote: So if Novaya Gazeta article bases their assessment of tanks on UVZ being manually made on Russian official government photos of Medvedev's visit - it's truth set in the stone, but when official UVZ channel publishes video showing working tank assembly line - it's fake. I can't even comprehend how this logic works.
You're conflicting arguments. I've never made arguments for the other direction either. In fact I haven't even looked at it. All I'm saying is that a Russian propaganda post from a Russian source in the middle of a war is not considered reliable. That video could have easily been taken 3 years ago
On March 01 2023 18:12 Ardias wrote: So if Novaya Gazeta article bases their assessment of tanks on UVZ being manually made on Russian official government photos of Medvedev's visit - it's truth set in the stone, but when official UVZ channel publishes video showing working tank assembly line - it's fake. I can't even comprehend how this logic works.
You're conflicting arguments. I've never made arguments for the other direction either. In fact I haven't even looked at it. All I'm saying is that a Russian propaganda post from a Russian source in the middle of a war is not considered reliable. That video could have easily been taken 3 years ago
First of all, running text on the wall in the first part of the video says "Make more tanks to fight the darkness". So it's not like it was made in peacetime. So, not 3 years ago. Second, before running old "Russian propaganda" trope, you should have checked what was the argument about and what this particular video was proving or disproving. The point of article was "Tank on UVZ are manually made, Medvedev's photo is the proof". My counterargument - "No, there is an assembly line, UVZ video is the proof". It doesn't matter even if it's 3 years ago or now, the line is still there (unless you want to say that everything on a video is a film setup and doesn't exist in reality).
Regarding economics and engineering: resources will flow towards those who can make the most value out of them. Russia exports a lot of raw and processed resources and imports the stuff made from those resources in return. That doesn't mean they can't do it, just not on a level with e.g. Germany and France (else why not do everything yourself and skip the selling of oil, gas and metals?).
Now that trade is severely limited and/or complicated by having to use in-betweens, Russia has to do all the conversion of resources to (military) products themselves. And that's not easy. We will see how it plays out.
On March 01 2023 18:12 Ardias wrote: So if Novaya Gazeta article bases their assessment of tanks on UVZ being manually made on Russian official government photos of Medvedev's visit - it's truth set in the stone, but when official UVZ channel publishes video showing working tank assembly line - it's fake. I can't even comprehend how this logic works.
You're conflicting arguments. I've never made arguments for the other direction either. In fact I haven't even looked at it. All I'm saying is that a Russian propaganda post from a Russian source in the middle of a war is not considered reliable. That video could have easily been taken 3 years ago
First of all, running text on the wall in the first part of the video says "Make more tanks to fight the darkness". So it's not like it was made in peacetime. So, not 3 years ago. Second, before running old "Russian propaganda" trope, you should have checked what was the argument about and what this particular video was proving or disproving. The point of article was "Tank on UVZ are manually made, Medvedev's photo is the proof". My counterargument - "No, there is an assembly line, UVZ video is the proof". It doesn't matter even if it's 3 years ago or now, the line is still there (unless you want to say that everything on a video is a film setup and doesn't exist in reality).
I know you are trying to bring some sort of balance to the discussion, and yes western propaganda is vastly superior to Russian one in every aspect, which make it difficult to distinguish from the truth, while russian propaganda is often based on making sure every one understand this is propaganda to the point that we don't bother checking Russian official sources. Which you do, and we can thank you for your patience.
We have been raised in vastly different manner, which is why you run into the basic critical thinking. We risk nothing saying that russia is right, you risk everything saying that russia is wrong. So we tend to exercice our freedom with less care than you have to. Yes, you have the freedom to do what you are doing, but one wrong step and it is byebye unless daddy is someone or that you are no one, that's the funny thing, it will be someone else who decides that for you.
So when we mostly believe that tank production lines are not running, we have harder time to get access to sources, so our sources end up with a higher questionability.
I work in manufacturing, so I know the show that is put up when outsider are visiting, everything is setup so every machine is working at full speed even if the next day 2/3 of the machines will be left offline. Making a video that support the official gospel is pretty easy with the access. Making the video the next day in the factory showing the factory state is the tough part.
You have to accept that what you are believing is exactly what you are needed to believe. I told Russian propaganda is inferior to western one, but this does not mean it is ineffective. There is second layer that then cannot be detected, that builds up organically. You end up believing more strongly this second layer, because the first layer is so easy to notice.
Of course, I cannot change your mind, that's not how a discussion works, but I can discussed with others here if they agree and see the same mechanism at work.
The west is great, Russia was great the many time I visited. You just tend to notice that all the parts to reboot dictatorship were left in place. Good luck with the next 50 years.
I knew the guy is retarded, but he doesn't even try to hide it. BTW Ardias, what do your fellow coutryboys mean by common "religious values", "historical cultural identity", "national identity"... and connect it with centuries-old russian Warsaw? Do I am suppose to believe that in head of the regular Styopa from Whereveryelsk we have anything in common? And these clowns are treated as serious jurnalists? Because for now more I find out about Russians, less I respect them.
Western propaganda doesn't even need to work, your own talking apes from TV do all the work for them.
EPT
