Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 395

On March 03 2023 20:08 Artesimo wrote:

That is probably the only realistic solution in the near future since nobody is willing to go to war with russia over ukraine. Just looking at how difficult the pretty safe Nato membership of sweden (and by proxy finland) are, or how long and difficult the process for EU membership are even without political motivated resistance.

Both Nato and EU membership for ukraine is probably only realistic after it got so armed up that nobody thinks russia can invade them, and that status remaining in place for long enough to make everyone at ease. And even then you probably still have to worry about some separatist movements 'coincidentally' springing up all of a sudden and jeopardizing the process.

On March 03 2023 22:54 pmp10 wrote:

By now Ukraine couldn't even support the army that they used to have at the start of this war.
It's hard to imagine NATO finding even more weaponry that it can part-with but didn't delivery already, do so in time before Russia recovers and then make it affordable to use for now-impoverished country.

On March 03 2023 23:59 Sermokala wrote:
It would depend on whatever the peace deal looks like in the end. Russia will need to "Promise" not to invade Ukraine again at the very least. Meanwhile, the EU will want to be the first in line to rebuild Ukraine and integrate it into the EU, doing that means EU membership. Ukraine brings a ton of potential for growth and resources to the table and can be an outlet for the dollars stuck at the fed every day. It would also end the refugee situation for Ukrainians by making them free moving residents of the Schengen.

NATO membership is a different story but you don't need NATO membership to have NATO memberstate troops in your country. I don't belive Poland will let another war in the east happen without them.

On March 04 2023 00:19 Oukka wrote:

If Ukraine joins the EU within 10 years of the war ending, it'll be an insane surprise. Evenless than 15 years would be crazy fast.

From my understanding corruption is much closer to Russian levels than that of EU standards, and the economy in general is somewhat oligarch-dominated.

On March 03 2023 23:59 Sermokala wrote:
It would also end the refugee situation for Ukrainians by making them free moving residents of the Schengen.

On March 03 2023 18:21 Ardias wrote:
Video of Ukraine forces training on Challengers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cu3N0y7Sf8
4:05 - "Most of them haven't seen a tank".
I guess they don't send a lot of previously trained crews on Challys, wonder how it would be with other types.

On March 04 2023 02:27 Oleo wrote:


Nice misinformation through half quoting, let me help.
"Some of the Ukrainian armed forces have operated tanks before, but most of them have not seen a tank"

Which says absolutely nothing.
The one Ukrainian that gets interviewed clearly has experience.

On March 04 2023 00:33 Artesimo wrote:


Not just corruption, even "just" the matter of adapting processes, regulations, and laws to EU standards is something that can only be done slowly over time.

On March 04 2023 07:07 pmp10 wrote:

I think there is a far bigger issue with any plan for Ukrainian EU membership, namely the defense pact.
If Ukraine could be invaded to stop it from joining NATO then it can be invaded to stop it joining EU.
EU might be short on tactical nukes but Ukraine joining it would mean beginning of the end of Russian influence there.

On March 04 2023 04:43 Artesimo wrote:

There is 0 difference between what Ardias says here and what you say... The video makes it seem like most of the ukrainians that got trained on the challengers are new to tanking. And like Gorsameth said, it makes perfect sense to train fresh people on the new tanks when you got enough of your regular tanks to equip all your already experienced crews if you need to expand your tank force and not just upgrade them.

On March 04 2023 19:23 Artesimo wrote:
Actually overanalysing it for fun, there is a slight narrative change by Ardias post. The video states "Some of the Ukrainian armed forces have operated tanks before, but most of them have not seen a tank" which taking literally implies to me that out of all of the urkainian forces, only a few have seen a tank. This seems like an obvious blunder on the soldiers part though, he must have meant "Some of the Ukrainian armed forces we train here have operated tanks before, but most of them have not seen a tank". Or the video itself omitted a previous sentence that would have clarified what he is talking about. Ardias post 'spins' the 'narrative' in a way that makes it seem like the quote only applies to the troops send there for training, and thus, bringing it more in line with what I think the intended message was.

I think I am convinced now, Ardias is a russian troll. I have no idea why putin pays him to improve statements to the benefit of ukraine/their supporters, but maybe I am a little bit stupid. After all, russia has often played both sides, so maybe they just also apply that tactic to themselves.

On March 04 2023 23:04 mahrgell wrote:
Rheinmetall now publicly said that they are in advanced talks with Ukraine about a tank factory in Ukraine, producing the KF51 Panther. They claim a potential of 400 tanks/year. Costs are to be estimated at 200 million €.
They are very confident they could protect it against aerial threats...

+ Show Spoiler [German sources] +

This has a insane amount of question marks. Then again, this ain't some Twitter news, but indeed Rheinmetall announcing that themselves...

So:
- such an enormous factory for only 200m€ investment? That's like 5 jets equivalent.
- 400 tanks a year? When Rheinmetall is struggling to repair double-digit numbers of tanks here in Germany, where half their production is?
- confidence in making it air-safe? Sure, you can make it so no Shahed is touching you. But even if Russia is only producing a Kinshal every 2 months... Can you really defend a few of them or their other more advanced stuff incoming? This target would certainly be worth it.
- the KF51 Panther so far only has a mock prototype... there are no orders at all so far, earliest service date was estimated 2030+ In their statement they said they would do that investment in the expectation of this war running for a while, but also (unlike e.g. some of the jet discussions) they are claiming that this would be a necessary contribution for an Ukrainian victory, so not just some post war replenishment

A Ukrainian commander said the situation in Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine, is "critical" and that there are more Russian troops surrounding the city than there is ammunition to kill them all.

Volodymyr Nazarenko, a deputy commander in the National Guard of Ukraine, told Ukrainian NV Radio that the fighting is currently going on "round the clock" as Russians relentlessly push to capture the city, according to a translation from Reuters.

"They take no account of their losses in trying to take the city by assault," Nazarenko said, adding that Ukrainian troops are trying to "inflict as many losses on the enemy as possible."

But it may not be enough. Reuters reported that Nazarenko told the radio station that Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut have less ammo than there are Russian troops attacking the city.

"We need as much ammunition as possible," he said, according to Reuters' translation. "There are many more Russians here than we have ammunition to destroy them."

On Friday morning, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, appeared in a video telling Kyiv that Bakhmut was "basically surrounded," the Wall Street Journal reported.

"The pincers are tightening," Prigozhin said, urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to pull his forces from the area.

There's currently only one road left out of the city, CNN reported, and the Russian bombing of a vital supply bridge to Bakhmut has cut Ukrainian forces from critical resources.

The Wagner Group pushed much of the offensive into Bakhmut this past weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Bakhmut has been the site of some of the deadliest combat in the war, with Ukraine and Russia experiencing high losses.