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I just read this really interesting story, which I feel no part of this war wants to be debated too much:
-The west still sends more money to Russia through fossil fuel imports than they send to Ukraine. -A lot of that fuel is shipped THROUGH UKRAINE! -The fossil fuel exports play a key part in why the Russian economy is doing better than expected. -Even though they are in full war, it still pays off better for Ukraine to help Russia sell oil to the west than to shut the pipelines off. -Afaik, these pipelines were regarded as the reason Ukraine was not invaded by Russia sooner. -European dependence on Russian energy was likely a main reason why Russia decided to invade despite the risks.
This all seems very sketchy to me... One thing is clear: Europe clearly screwed up their energy sources, and are paying the price on the global scene of power. I don't know what to think about the pipelines...
On February 26 2023 18:25 Slydie wrote: I just read this really interesting story, which I feel no part of this war wants to be debated too much:
-The west still sends more money to Russia through fossil fuel imports than they send to Ukraine. -A lot of that fuel is shipped THROUGH UKRAINE! -The fossil fuel exports play a key part in why the Russian economy is doing better than expected. -Even though they are in full war, it still pays off better for Ukraine to help Russia sell oil to the west than to shut the pipelines off. -Afaik, these pipelines were regarded as the reason Ukraine was not invaded by Russia sooner. -European dependence on Russian energy was likely a main reason why Russia decided to invade despite the risks.
This all seems very sketchy to me... One thing is clear: Europe clearly screwed up their energy sources, and are paying the price on the global scene of power. I don't know what to think about the pipelines...
On February 26 2023 18:25 Slydie wrote: I just read this really interesting story, which I feel no part of this war wants to be debated too much:
-The west still sends more money to Russia through fossil fuel imports than they send to Ukraine. -A lot of that fuel is shipped THROUGH UKRAINE! -The fossil fuel exports play a key part in why the Russian economy is doing better than expected. -Even though they are in full war, it still pays off better for Ukraine to help Russia sell oil to the west than to shut the pipelines off. -Afaik, these pipelines were regarded as the reason Ukraine was not invaded by Russia sooner. -European dependence on Russian energy was likely a main reason why Russia decided to invade despite the risks.
This all seems very sketchy to me... One thing is clear: Europe clearly screwed up their energy sources, and are paying the price on the global scene of power. I don't know what to think about the pipelines...
Just yesterday Poland announced that Russia stopped the oil deliveries through the Drushba pipeline. Does your article predate this?
There is a pipeline map, but there are several others as well. I could not easily work out which lines and branches go through Ukraine and not. The specific names are not mentioned.
The main reason why Ukraine lets the gas flow is likely that they don't want to upset the EU, but they are likely payed handsomely by Russia as well.
The sanctions are harming Russia far more than they are harming the EU and especially Germany.
Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no?
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy.
The IMF recently released their economic estimates, Russian economy likely shrank -2.2% in 2022, not the -5 to -15% laughably claimed previously from more biased sources.
Additionally they estimate Russian GDP growth of 0.3% in 2023, while they're predicting 0.1% growth for Germany in 23', down from 1.9% in 2022.
As previously stated, the sanctions have failed and are hurting the EU far more than Russia.The trends in the IMF data make this clear now if it wasn't before.
You should take into the account that Russia increased its military spending in 2022 from about 2.5% of GDP to about 5% of GDP. Whatever they're spending, they are squandering in Ukraine. It could be argued that the real contraction is closer to 4-5%.
There are clear indications that Putin's war chest is running dry. Russia's deficit reached 60% of the value planned for the entire 2023 already in January. Russia's budget revenues in 2023 are predicted to decrease by around 30% due to oil and gas sanctions. The wheels are clearly coming off. It took longer than predicted, but the signs are there.
The sanctions are harming Russia far more than they are harming the EU and especially Germany.
Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no?
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy.
The IMF recently released their economic estimates, Russian economy likely shrank -2.2% in 2022, not the -5 to -15% laughably claimed previously from more biased sources.
Additionally they estimate Russian GDP growth of 0.3% in 2023, while they're predicting 0.1% growth for Germany in 23', down from 1.9% in 2022.
As previously stated, the sanctions have failed and are hurting the EU far more than Russia.The trends in the IMF data make this clear now if it wasn't before.
You should take into the account that Russia increased its military spending in 2022 from about 2.5% of GDP to about 5% of GDP. Whatever they're spending, they are squandering in Ukraine. It could be argued that the real contraction is closer to 4-5%.
There are clear indications that Putin's war chest is running dry. Russia's deficit reached 60% of the value planned for the entire 2023 already in January. Russia's budget revenues in 2023 are predicted to decrease by around 30% due to oil and gas sanctions. The wheels are clearly coming off. It took longer than predicted, but the signs are there.
Yes, and also USSR didn't collapse in a short time frame even if it did eventually. As long as patriotism is alive and kicking in Russia, I don't see any immediate collapse. It's after all "rally around the flag" effect. To be honest, I'd expect any Russian collapse if things became like 90s were to Russia and if food is missing on the table, this is when you may expect drastic changes. Otherwise, it's simply a Cold War v2 to me.
Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
Battlefield costs. Ukraine is insanely expensive for Russia. They have a large demographic problem and are making it much worse. They will not be in a position to run another war due to manpower shortages on the frontline and production sides.
If they open up the borders the brain drain they are suffering from will become worse as well. If you are in an aggressive state that might draft you then you don't even need more money to move out.
Basically the long term costs are very high, disregarding direct economics.
They will still be a powerful nation that can bully small countries around but it is unlikely they can project as much force abroad.
This is assuming they win the war this year. If it drags past that without a stalemate it gets much worse due to the amount of people and equipment that is forever gone. Many are even projecting a Russian loss in Ukraine due to cumulative equipment differences the longer the war drags on. Russia losing equipment faster than it can replace it, Ukraine gaining better equipment.
So the strongest deterrence would be losing the war along with all the equipment and manpower it costs. Likely forcing a new regime that is not interested in being toppled due to war again.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
Everyone around Russia being part of a defensive pact with either the EU, NATO or China. Combined with their military have been shot to pieces and their adult population having been decimated.
The way its going there is no way Russia will be able to launch another invasion against anyone for atleast a generation.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
Yes, agreed. I don't think trying to co-operate with Russia in the past was a mistake. No one can predict the future, the rest of Europe did their best or what was expected. It's simply Russia that messed it up. So, as you say, this process may continue and I think it should continue once governors in Kremlin become more reasonable and learn a lesson or two.
As long as Putin is at the helm there cannot be any talks of resumed trade with Russia or lifting of sanctions by any of Ukraine's allies. The proposal alone is traitorous until the day Putin loses power and a much friendlier individual steps in his place. Western leaders should be very cautious of their words. The EU is watching, and I'm glad Hungary has already received major backlash.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
We still need to see if Russia won't have to shut down its wells in Syberia. This would be catastrophic for them as experts estimate that restarting those wells would take decades and that's if you have access to experts from the West who helped set it up in the first place because Russia doesn't have enough know-how itself. Most of those wells and plenty of pipes are in the permafrost area so once it stops, it stops for good.
They might be forced to shut down those wells because of the oil buildup in the pipes as they can't offload enough of it since no tankers are coming their way. Because of sanctions and the war you can't get an insurance on a big transport ship to enter Russian ports so their import/export situation is rather dire and they don't have pipelines going everywhere, most of them were going to the EU and that's been shut down for the most part.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
We still need to see if Russia won't have to shut down its wells in Syberia. This would be catastrophic for them as experts estimate that restarting those wells would take decades and that's if you have access to experts from the West who helped set it up in the first place because Russia doesn't have enough know-how itself. Most of those wells and plenty of pipes are in the permafrost area so once it stops, it stops for good.
They might be forced to shut down those wells because of the oil buildup in the pipes as they can't offload enough of it since no tankers are coming their way. Because of sanctions and the war you can't get an insurance on a big transport ship to enter Russian ports so their import/export situation is rather dire and they don't have pipelines going everywhere, most of them were going to the EU and that's been shut down for the most part.
They have previously idled a significant number of wells in Siberia as I understand it, is there a difference this time?
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
Battlefield costs. Ukraine is insanely expensive for Russia. They have a large demographic problem and are making it much worse. They will not be in a position to run another war due to manpower shortages on the frontline and production sides.
If they open up the borders the brain drain they are suffering from will become worse as well. If you are in an aggressive state that might draft you then you don't even need more money to move out.
Basically the long term costs are very high, disregarding direct economics.
Same argument can be made about Ukraine's demographic difficulties, they could be even worse as they are a smaller country and are suffering worse migration. Aside from that, Russian military reserve is estimated to be around 2 milion. It sounds harsh but numbers-wise they can do this for a generation. I doubt Putin cares for as long as they obey.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
Everyone around Russia being part of a defensive pact with either the EU, NATO or China.
And who will sign this defensive pact with Ukraine? Right now NATO can't get Sweden admitted, EU won't even let Romania join Schengen. All attempts at negotiations so far have showed that no western country will risk war over Ukraine. The best that is on offer is some cheap armaments and another version of Minsk accords.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue.
Military occupation and political breakup for a few generations? Hardly a realistic prospect when no one is planning to invade Russia. That's the problem with hoping for a Finnish outcome for Ukraine, today there is no 4-milion strong army willing to have a go at Moscow.
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
We still need to see if Russia won't have to shut down its wells in Syberia. This would be catastrophic for them as experts estimate that restarting those wells would take decades and that's if you have access to experts from the West who helped set it up in the first place because Russia doesn't have enough know-how itself. Most of those wells and plenty of pipes are in the permafrost area so once it stops, it stops for good.
They might be forced to shut down those wells because of the oil buildup in the pipes as they can't offload enough of it since no tankers are coming their way. Because of sanctions and the war you can't get an insurance on a big transport ship to enter Russian ports so their import/export situation is rather dire and they don't have pipelines going everywhere, most of them were going to the EU and that's been shut down for the most part.
They have previously idled a significant number of wells in Siberia as I understand it, is there a difference this time?
The problem as I understand it is not the wells themselves but rather the pipes, you need to have oil flowing through them constantly or they get ruined. They are having problems with offload and at the same time they can't stop it completely. I'm no oil expert though, just quoting some articles I've read on the subject. Perhaps it's been exaggerated but I can imagine that big operations like that can be rather troublesome to manage when you have sudden increase/decrease of input/output at either end of the pipeline.
Note that this article is from before the war so the situation might be even worse now.
The main problem is that 70 per cent of the Russian oil resources are very difficult to extract. The production costs amount to USD70 per barrel onshore and USD150 per barrel in the Arctic. Moreover, extraction of these resources requires technologies that are unavailable due to the sanctions. The production is projected to peak in the years 2020-2022, and after that the production volumes will start falling at the rate of 10 per cent per year. As a result, by 2035 oil production will have dropped from the current level of 11 million barrels to 6 million barrels per day. This is equivalent to Russia’s own internal needs, which means that its oil exports would fall to zero.
And something completely unrelated, Russian's view on the celebration of 1 year anniversary of "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine:
It seems the US has sent quite a lot of heavy equipment over to Europe. Not sure if it's intended for Ukraine or just a part of NATO forces build-up in expectation for the worst...
On February 26 2023 19:08 SC-Shield wrote: Regardless of above points, we still see immediate effects of sanctions. E.g. reports that Russian soldiers extract chips from fridges, washing machines, etc. Lower oil price will definitely hit Russia as a very big chunk of Russia's economy is energy export. EU and US have already hit sector. Just because some sanctions take time to come into full effect we shouldn't declare them useless. If the goal is to break Russia completely, I don't think they'll do, they're just complementary to weapons aid to Ukraine, i.e. "every little bit helps" but not a silver bullet.
So lets say sanctions are not useless but won't stop Russia either. What other tool does the west use to save Ukraine? If Russia cannot be deterred or stopped today then what will stop them from launching more invasions 5/10/15 years from now? Essentially - what is to force Russia into a permanent peace if the economic costs have failed.
In addition to comments above mine, I would add economic prosperity and mutual trust. In the same sense, you may ask what stops Germany from another war like the one they started in WW2? I think that solved the issue. If Russia gets over their fear of "they're out there to get us", starts co-operating with the rest of the world peacefully and develop economic ties, then maybe we could have long-lasting peace. NATO exists because of Russian aggression in my opinion. Russia never stopped dreaming of new territories since 1944, so it's a vicious circle. For Putin it's easier to invoke nationalism and enrich himself and his friends than start reforms against corruption. Western politicians had more faith in Putin earlier in his career, he just gave up or maybe he didn't even intend to modernise Russia in the same sense as it was for Europe.
Yeah... we tried that for a while and yet we find ourselves here, now.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Russia had its chance for economic integration and peace. Until there is a significant culture chance in Russia and an embracing of democratic values we should absolutely not feed them more money to use on more aggressive ventures in the future.
(tho sadly I have no doubt that cheap Russian gas/oil will be bought as soon as possible once this war is over).
We still need to see if Russia won't have to shut down its wells in Syberia. This would be catastrophic for them as experts estimate that restarting those wells would take decades and that's if you have access to experts from the West who helped set it up in the first place because Russia doesn't have enough know-how itself. Most of those wells and plenty of pipes are in the permafrost area so once it stops, it stops for good.
They might be forced to shut down those wells because of the oil buildup in the pipes as they can't offload enough of it since no tankers are coming their way. Because of sanctions and the war you can't get an insurance on a big transport ship to enter Russian ports so their import/export situation is rather dire and they don't have pipelines going everywhere, most of them were going to the EU and that's been shut down for the most part.
It is Russia. If they have a problem with too much oil, they'll just pump it into the ocean, or release it somewhere in Siberia, or burn it. But of course extracting it just to burn it will still cost some money, so someone will need to calculate that vs shutting down and trying to restart the pumps later.
YEAR was just released a day ago, by Journalist Dmytro Komarov about the war from the start till now. NSFW as it touches on Bucha etc. Multiple interviews of regular people, as well as high ranks like Zelensky and co. CC seems to work on YouTube at least for English.
EPT
