EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 389
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
On February 25 2023 13:31 Manit0u wrote: Apparently yesterday Ukrainians took out 6 Russian supply depots around Bakhmut and in Mariupol. Seeing how Russians were ammo starved already this might put further dents in their war efforts and open them up for a counter offensive. I take this with caution, I don't how many depots they have and since the first depot screw-ups they have been much more spread out. They may contain 1/10th of the ammunitions they used to, and have 10x more depots. Always good to hear and I am optimistic over the collapse of the russian forces. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
On February 26 2023 05:13 plasmidghost wrote: Bakhmut might be fucked. Going to depend on if this attack succeeds. The north is already collapsing and I don't know what Ukraine can do at this point Force Russian to bleed for it, but no need to fight to the last man there. They should've been building further defensive lines behind to fall back to because it's been months since we heard word of it falling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut#Strategic_value I'm not sure on the strategic value, and how worthwhile it is to hold. It's looking like Ukraine will eventually lose it because it's becoming more encircled by the day. It's been a bloodbath for months though at this point, and any victory is close to pyrrhic for the Russians. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4463 Posts
On August 10 2022 22:21 zatic wrote: I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy. The IMF recently released their economic estimates, Russian economy likely shrank -2.2% in 2022, not the -5 to -15% laughably claimed previously from more biased sources. Additionally they estimate Russian GDP growth of 0.3% in 2023, while they're predicting 0.1% growth for Germany in 23', down from 1.9% in 2022. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023 The data is in the projections table. As previously stated, the sanctions have failed and are hurting the EU far more than Russia.The trends in the IMF data make this clear now if it wasn't before. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On February 26 2023 06:54 Lmui wrote: Force Russian to bleed for it, but no need to fight to the last man there. They should've been building further defensive lines behind to fall back to because it's been months since we heard word of it falling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut#Strategic_value I'm not sure on the strategic value, and how worthwhile it is to hold. It's looking like Ukraine will eventually lose it because it's becoming more encircled by the day. It's been a bloodbath for months though at this point, and any victory is close to pyrrhic for the Russians. Well whatever the case Col. Gen. Oleksandr was at the HQ of Bakhmut today. Now what that means is anyone's guess. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
On February 26 2023 05:13 plasmidghost wrote: Bakhmut might be fucked. Going to depend on if this attack succeeds. The north is already collapsing and I don't know what Ukraine can do at this point https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1629573113150152706 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629531910757142528 One thing they did was blow up the dam which caused river to overflow and deny access to Bakhmut from the north. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
On February 26 2023 09:50 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: The IMF recently released their economic estimates, Russian economy likely shrank -2.2% in 2022, not the -5 to -15% laughably claimed previously from more biased sources. Additionally they estimate Russian GDP growth of 0.3% in 2023, while they're predicting 0.1% growth for Germany in 23', down from 1.9% in 2022. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023 The data is in the projections table. As previously stated, the sanctions have failed and are hurting the EU far more than Russia.The trends in the IMF data make this clear now if it wasn't before. Russia went from 5.6% growth to -2.1% contraction, that's almost 8% difference. In comparison Germany went from 2.6% to 1.8% so 0.8% difference. What you also failed to mention is that Russia has now around 12% inflation, which they can maybe bring down to 6% at the end of the year (as opposed to Germany's 9%, predicted to fall down to 3% around Q4/23). Another thing that's kind of important is business and consumer confidence, which are plummeting for Russia (business confidence going into negatives while Germany has it at around 90). | ||
KwarK
United States44450 Posts
On February 26 2023 10:21 Manit0u wrote: Russia went from 5.6% growth to -2.1% contraction, that's almost 8% difference. In comparison Germany went from 2.6% to 1.8% so 0.8% difference. What you also failed to mention is that Russia has now around 12% inflation, which they can maybe bring down to 6% at the end of the year (as opposed to Germany's 9%, predicted to fall down to 3% around Q4/23). Another thing that's kind of important is business and consumer confidence, which are plummeting for Russia (business confidence going into negatives while Germany has it at around 90). Nettles gets his economic opinions from infomercials selling gold to boomers so I'd save your energy. | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden1008 Posts
But what does a growing economy that produces tanks for example that gets destroyed in a week really add, nothing. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria908 Posts
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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pmp10
3401 Posts
On February 26 2023 10:21 Manit0u wrote: What you also failed to mention is that Russia has now around 12% inflation, which they can maybe bring down to 6% at the end of the year (as opposed to Germany's 9%, predicted to fall down to 3% around Q4/23). You know it's even worse in eastern Europe. Last I checked the Baltic states were running near to 20% inflation for 2022. And if anyone expected Russia to go bankrupt over the 3% number then what can be said of Ukraine when it lost over 30%? Sanctions were a good try but by now it's clear that too many punches have been pulled and they won't make a big difference long-term. But since failure cannot be admitted we are now stuck issuing more and more regulation. The only purpose they serve now is managing voter expectations. | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden1008 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria908 Posts
On February 26 2023 17:49 pmp10 wrote: You know it's even worse in eastern Europe. Last I checked the Baltic states were running near to 20% inflation for 2022. And if anyone expected Russia to go bankrupt over the 3% number then what can be said of Ukraine when it lost over 30%? Sanctions were a good try but by now it's clear that too many punches have been pulled and they won't make a big difference long-term. But since failure cannot be admitted we are now stuck issuing more and more regulation. The only purpose they serve now is managing voter expectations. This is incorrect. Russia is banned from advanced chips, so they cannot bring modern weapons to this war. Oil cap also works, Russia barely makes money due to how inefficiently they extract it. The less money they make from energy, the less money they have to finance their war machine and general economy. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
On February 26 2023 17:49 pmp10 wrote: You know it's even worse in eastern Europe. Last I checked the Baltic states were running near to 20% inflation for 2022. And if anyone expected Russia to go bankrupt over the 3% number then what can be said of Ukraine when it lost over 30%? Sanctions were a good try but by now it's clear that too many punches have been pulled and they won't make a big difference long-term. But since failure cannot be admitted we are now stuck issuing more and more regulation. The only purpose they serve now is managing voter expectations. That's all in your imagination. We could also just nuke them, they'd still show you how much they are growing. France has a high inflation, but it is mostly matching it with salary raises. Those companies that can't match the raise, either loses employees or start having an easier time paying them. It gives a chance for companies that had inadequate salary levels for any reason. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18494 Posts
On February 26 2023 17:49 pmp10 wrote: You know it's even worse in eastern Europe. Last I checked the Baltic states were running near to 20% inflation for 2022. And if anyone expected Russia to go bankrupt over the 3% number then what can be said of Ukraine when it lost over 30%? Sanctions were a good try but by now it's clear that too many punches have been pulled and they won't make a big difference long-term. But since failure cannot be admitted we are now stuck issuing more and more regulation. The only purpose they serve now is managing voter expectations. This is a broken understanding of what bankruptcy is. Ukraine's economy collapsed last year, but they cannot go bankrupt as long as the rest of Europe and the US is willing to bankroll them. Bankruptcy results not when you run out of cash but when you are unable to repay your debts AND either you yourself or your creditors don't believe you'll be able to repay them in the future. Obviously everyone knows the Ukraine's economy is in shambles, but their (international) debts are either paid off (with Western credit) or the creditor has agreed they don't need to be for the foreseeable future. This Ukraine is currently at zero risk of going bankrupt. Russia should be at zero risk of going bankrupt, but the weirdness of the sanctions made it look as if they might, having borrowed money in USD and then being cut off from any access to USD (even their own funds that were stored in USD). Obviously arrangements were made and Russia didn't go bankrupt. Finally, a country going bankrupt is also not anywhere near the same as a company/person doing so. A country cannot be disbanded like a company nor forced to repay their debts by any government. Instead, you should see It as a vote of no confidence by the credit market that they'll repay the money owed. In most cases, that means they'll be unable to borrow money again, or at the very least, the interest rates Will be sky high (see Greece 2011 or Argentina 2000). However, in this case, Russia was already cut off from the international credit market, and they were perfectly capable of repaying national debt in rubels. So even if they did go bankrupt, its actual effect on the Russian economy would be negligible. At least in the short term. | ||
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