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Strangely this isn't widely reported on news websites, so I'm not sure if it's fake or not. It doesn't get much exposure as of now.
Russian Top Energy Official Threatens NS1 Pipeline (9:29 p.m.)
Russian deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak threatened to cut off Russian natural gas supplies to Europe through the original Nord Stream 1 pipeline in retaliation for Germany’s decision to block operation of the new Nord Stream 2.
In a televised statement, Novak, also the country’s top energy official, said Russia hasn’t made the decision yet but has the full right to take a “mirror” action and put an embargo on gas supplies that come through the NS1 pipeline, which he said is working now “at its full capacity.”
Last month, Berlin shelved the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline project that was designed to bring steady gas supplies from Russia. His warning comes as Europe is vowing to cut its reliance on Russian gas by almost 80% this year.
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/ukraine-update-oil-surges-as-u-s-mulls-banning-russian-imports?utm_campaign=bn&utm_medium=distro&utm_source=yahooUS
User was warned for this post.
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Gas money is practically the only foreign money coming into Russia. at this point. Cutting off the gas just further hurts Russia.
Other countries are wanting to shut it off to further hurt Russia, for obvious reasons Germany doesn't want to.
It would suck for Germany but they can try to compensate. Russia can't get that gas money anywhere else.
It feels like a very empty threat.
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On March 08 2022 07:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Gas money is practically the only foreign money coming into Russia. at this point. Cutting off the gas just further hurts Russia.
Other countries are wanting to shut it off to further hurt Russia, for obvious reasons Germany doesn't want to.
It would suck for Germany but they can try to compensate. Russia can't get that gas money anywhere else.
It feels like a very empty threat.
Well the obvious variable is China. Would China buy out Russia's infrastructure or at least the contracts to expand it in order to bring their cheap fuel to them? It might make sense they would. I don't see another way around the sanctions.
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On March 08 2022 08:30 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 07:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Gas money is practically the only foreign money coming into Russia. at this point. Cutting off the gas just further hurts Russia.
Other countries are wanting to shut it off to further hurt Russia, for obvious reasons Germany doesn't want to.
It would suck for Germany but they can try to compensate. Russia can't get that gas money anywhere else.
It feels like a very empty threat.
Well the obvious variable is China. Would China buy out Russia's infrastructure or at least the contracts to expand it in order to bring their cheap fuel to them? It might make sense they would. I don't see another way around the sanctions.
Just like Europe can't easily retool our infrastructure to be independent of Russian gas and buy it elsewhere, Russia can't easily retool their infrastructure to sell it elsewhere. And even if they could, China needs roughly half the natural gas that Europe imported from Russia.
That's not to say Russia isn't building new pipelines to China as fast as they can, but right now, Europe is Russia's only viable customer for the quantities of oil and gas they want to sell. Europe could get oil elsewhere relatively easily (at a significant cost), but gas is going to be a massive problem.
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On March 08 2022 08:52 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 08:30 Vindicare605 wrote:On March 08 2022 07:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Gas money is practically the only foreign money coming into Russia. at this point. Cutting off the gas just further hurts Russia.
Other countries are wanting to shut it off to further hurt Russia, for obvious reasons Germany doesn't want to.
It would suck for Germany but they can try to compensate. Russia can't get that gas money anywhere else.
It feels like a very empty threat.
Well the obvious variable is China. Would China buy out Russia's infrastructure or at least the contracts to expand it in order to bring their cheap fuel to them? It might make sense they would. I don't see another way around the sanctions. Just like Europe can't easily retool our infrastructure to be independent of Russian gas and buy it elsewhere, Russia can't easily retool their infrastructure to sell it elsewhere. And even if they could, China needs roughly half the natural gas that Europe imported from Russia. That's not to say Russia isn't building new pipelines to China as fast as they can, but right now, Europe is Russia's only viable customer for the quantities of oil and gas they want to sell. Europe could get oil elsewhere relatively easily (at a significant cost), but gas is going to be a massive problem.
Is this a concern only in countries like Germany? France has a lot of nuclear reactors as far as I know. Is France alright?
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Another Major General apparently killed.
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China has been sanctioned by the United States，So China will help Russia。If Russia declines, it will be difficult for China to compete with the United States alone。
This is the view of the Chinese government。
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That's not giving china enough credit. They've been preparing for the Russian collapse for a long time. They've been buying the allegiance and friendship of anyone who wants some cash to spend.
I don't buy that china will invade Taiwan when Taiwan knows they just need to blow their chip factory to make it not worth it even before setting a foot on the island. China will play the long game and turn russia into its vassel once Putin loses power. They don't need to play both sides because they can't lose no matter how the war ends as long as it doesn't go nuclear.
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On March 08 2022 06:58 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 06:48 GoTuNk! wrote:On March 08 2022 06:31 Vindicare605 wrote:
What's hilarious to me is that, these governments didn't see exactly what Putin was doing when he was getting them all warmed up to the prospect of cheap gas? They let their own greed get the better of them and didnt realize they were taking the devil's bargain with the pipelines. Putin gets rich and enhances his own wealth, power and army off of their desire for cheap power and heating.
I don't know why the West hasn't just accepted that every country needs to be self sufficient for power. It's possible everywhere you just need to be creative and willing to spend the money to build it. Reliant on foreign fossil fuels is A: damaging to the environment, B: compromises you geopolitically, and C: enriches foreign powers instead of strengthening your own economy.
It's just plain greed and laziness. It's one of the many ways the West has just gotten complacent in the mid to late 20th century. And politics. Apparently is good for the enviroment to not produce gas/oil locally, but it's ok to buy gas/oil from evil dictators and/or purchase goods from nations that have a competitive advantage because of cheaper energy. The US government will try to sell that the gas price is solely due to Putin and war, but the new administration has been chocking US domestic production since january and prices have been rising since. It's fucked in the US because we export a TON of the fuel that we produce but then we turn around and buy CHEAPER fuel from elsewhere. We're the worst example of exactly what I'm talking about. We are MORE than capable of making ourselves energy independent. We just aren't because the oil companies know they can get a better price for their product in Japan so like 70% of what we're destroying Alaska to produce gets shipped to Japan, it's fucking ridiculous. I really hope this conflict helps to put into perspective why it's in everyone's best interest (just like it has been for the last 50 years) to END this reliance on cheap foreign fossil fuels. It's a lot more expensive in the long run if you look at everything that it impacts.
My understanding is that what we sell and what we buy are different. There are various forms of oil and various countries process different types. I don't think we export and import the exact same stuff.
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United States44383 Posts
On March 08 2022 13:03 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 06:58 Vindicare605 wrote:On March 08 2022 06:48 GoTuNk! wrote:On March 08 2022 06:31 Vindicare605 wrote:
What's hilarious to me is that, these governments didn't see exactly what Putin was doing when he was getting them all warmed up to the prospect of cheap gas? They let their own greed get the better of them and didnt realize they were taking the devil's bargain with the pipelines. Putin gets rich and enhances his own wealth, power and army off of their desire for cheap power and heating.
I don't know why the West hasn't just accepted that every country needs to be self sufficient for power. It's possible everywhere you just need to be creative and willing to spend the money to build it. Reliant on foreign fossil fuels is A: damaging to the environment, B: compromises you geopolitically, and C: enriches foreign powers instead of strengthening your own economy.
It's just plain greed and laziness. It's one of the many ways the West has just gotten complacent in the mid to late 20th century. And politics. Apparently is good for the enviroment to not produce gas/oil locally, but it's ok to buy gas/oil from evil dictators and/or purchase goods from nations that have a competitive advantage because of cheaper energy. The US government will try to sell that the gas price is solely due to Putin and war, but the new administration has been chocking US domestic production since january and prices have been rising since. It's fucked in the US because we export a TON of the fuel that we produce but then we turn around and buy CHEAPER fuel from elsewhere. We're the worst example of exactly what I'm talking about. We are MORE than capable of making ourselves energy independent. We just aren't because the oil companies know they can get a better price for their product in Japan so like 70% of what we're destroying Alaska to produce gets shipped to Japan, it's fucking ridiculous. I really hope this conflict helps to put into perspective why it's in everyone's best interest (just like it has been for the last 50 years) to END this reliance on cheap foreign fossil fuels. It's a lot more expensive in the long run if you look at everything that it impacts. My understanding is that what we sell and what we buy are different. There are various forms of oil and various countries process different types. I don't think we export and import the exact same stuff.
You are correct.
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Regarding the question of where Russia exports things. For gas it is >50% Europe. Oil looks to be roughly the same. Again I don't know if it is accurate since it is a twitter post, don't have time before work to find the Reuters article.
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On March 08 2022 15:20 Yurie wrote:Regarding the question of where Russia exports things. For gas it is >50% Europe. Oil looks to be roughly the same. Again I don't know if it is accurate since it is a twitter post, don't have time before work to find the Reuters article. https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500973551070887942
The only reason I can think of that NL needs that much oil is because of the refineries in Rotterdam. That isn't for domestic use, though. It's imported, refined, and exported. No doubt a good business and Shell would probably not be happy if that got shut down, but wouldn't be the end of the world. I haven't a clue what impact it would have to shut that down in all of Europe. I still expect Russian oil can be relatively easily be replaced by Middle Eastern or US oil, at a higher price. Main question is if whatever industries rely on oil can use that composition or rely specifically on the Ural blend.
Gas is imho a far larger problem. There's less of it, it's harder to transport and Russia absolutely dominates the market.
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On March 08 2022 16:12 Acrofales wrote:The only reason I can think of that NL needs that much oil is because of the refineries in Rotterdam. That isn't for domestic use, though. It's imported, refined, and exported. No doubt a good business and Shell would probably not be happy if that got shut down, but wouldn't be the end of the world. I haven't a clue what impact it would have to shut that down in all of Europe. I still expect Russian oil can be relatively easily be replaced by Middle Eastern or US oil, at a higher price. Main question is if whatever industries rely on oil can use that composition or rely specifically on the Ural blend. Gas is imho a far larger problem. There's less of it, it's harder to transport and Russia absolutely dominates the market.
I think I saw the Headline somewhere, that Shell is no longer buying russian Oil.
So at least that number is probably going down fast
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United Kingdom10011 Posts
On March 08 2022 18:53 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 16:12 Acrofales wrote:On March 08 2022 15:20 Yurie wrote:Regarding the question of where Russia exports things. For gas it is >50% Europe. Oil looks to be roughly the same. Again I don't know if it is accurate since it is a twitter post, don't have time before work to find the Reuters article. https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500973551070887942 The only reason I can think of that NL needs that much oil is because of the refineries in Rotterdam. That isn't for domestic use, though. It's imported, refined, and exported. No doubt a good business and Shell would probably not be happy if that got shut down, but wouldn't be the end of the world. I haven't a clue what impact it would have to shut that down in all of Europe. I still expect Russian oil can be relatively easily be replaced by Middle Eastern or US oil, at a higher price. Main question is if whatever industries rely on oil can use that composition or rely specifically on the Ural blend. Gas is imho a far larger problem. There's less of it, it's harder to transport and Russia absolutely dominates the market. I think I saw the Headline somewhere, that Shell is no longer buying russian Oil. So at least that number is probably going down fast
I don't know how much to believe headlines like that.
Shell will be thinking 'how can we make it look like we're doing something without affecting our bottom line', not 'we should make a sacrifice to show we actually care'
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On March 08 2022 18:53 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 16:12 Acrofales wrote:On March 08 2022 15:20 Yurie wrote:Regarding the question of where Russia exports things. For gas it is >50% Europe. Oil looks to be roughly the same. Again I don't know if it is accurate since it is a twitter post, don't have time before work to find the Reuters article. https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1500973551070887942 The only reason I can think of that NL needs that much oil is because of the refineries in Rotterdam. That isn't for domestic use, though. It's imported, refined, and exported. No doubt a good business and Shell would probably not be happy if that got shut down, but wouldn't be the end of the world. I haven't a clue what impact it would have to shut that down in all of Europe. I still expect Russian oil can be relatively easily be replaced by Middle Eastern or US oil, at a higher price. Main question is if whatever industries rely on oil can use that composition or rely specifically on the Ural blend. Gas is imho a far larger problem. There's less of it, it's harder to transport and Russia absolutely dominates the market. I think I saw the Headline somewhere, that Shell is no longer buying russian Oil. So at least that number is probably going down fast
Yeah Shell is stopping buying of Russian crude oil on the spot market, not renewing term contracts, and in the same announcement also apologized for buying Russian oil last week.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/08/shell-to-halt-buying-russian-oil-and-gas-and-close-all-service-stations-in-country
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So apparently when the Russians knocked out Ukrainian communications infrastructure they also knocked out the only way for them to have secure communications thus allowing NATO/Ukraine to intercept and listen in on them talking.
+ Show Spoiler +
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So what this war proves is that everyone, including the russians, greatly overerstimated the russian capabilities to wage war.
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EPT
