EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 36
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9651 Posts
On March 07 2022 14:47 evilfatsh1t wrote: off topic but that quote if im not mistaken is morpheus from the matrix? i had to have a guess. well shit it wasnt. i think theres a similar line from the matrix though Morpheus quotes? I'm not sure I want to go down that rabbit hole to be honest. | ||
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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
On March 07 2022 15:40 plasmidghost wrote: I really do wonder when Russia will open its stock exchange again. Hell, at this point it might not even open again If they never Open it, it would be the same as every single stock going down to 0, so that would be pretty bad as well I realy Don t understand, what s the Logik behind keeping it closed for so long now, it s not like its going to become better anytime soon. In Addition to the sanctions, Russia is going to experience sirious brain drain as well, with a lot of the educated midle class either beeing arrested at Protests or fleeing the country | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21691 Posts
On March 07 2022 09:27 deacon.frost wrote: What Putin likely wants to prevent is Ukraine pilots flying missions to attack Russian assets from a Polish Airfield, which would be a situation where he can't retaliate against the airfield to disable its strike capability without attacking Poland, and therefor NATO.I repeat it again. Putin stated that any country providing an airfield so Ukrainian aifrorce can do missions will be seen as a part of war. This is a mission of Ukrainian airforce. And Poland would provide the airfield. You see where I am going?  Edit> our former general actually spoke about this and these are his thoughts.(Petr Pavel, it's actually a bigger name  )(I can fight the interview but it;s on a Czech platform with 0 subtitles in Czech, so invalid for this forum) Not flying a plane from Poland to Ukraine to then fly sorties from said Ukraine airfield. And as others have mentioned. Putin has said a lot of things. Since Russia doesn't have economic pressure to exert shouting 'that would mean war!' is basically the only thing he can do. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4730 Posts
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On March 07 2022 16:22 dbRic1203 wrote: If they never Open it, it would be the same as every single stock going down to 0, so that would be pretty bad as well I realy Don t understand, what s the Logik behind keeping it closed for so long now, it s not like its going to become better anytime soon. My (totally uninformed) guess: when companies are listed, any stocks you might have are more of a liquid asset than stocks owned in a private company. More importantly, if their stock value goes from 100 to 1 or 0, then accounting-wise you have to declare that as a loss. That only happens if they're listed, if they're off the market then they become less liquid for investors but accounting wise there's no loss (yet) to declare. So if they open, the stocks all go to shit -> same day all the russian banks, pension funds and other financial institutions holding positions will face massive losses, possibly making them insolvent, accelerating the ongoing financial collapse of the country. If the stock markets don't open, they might be able to hide the situation for a tad longer. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17997 Posts
On March 07 2022 21:14 warding wrote: My (totally uninformed) guess: when companies are listed, any stocks you might have are more of a liquid asset than stocks owned in a private company. More importantly, if their stock value goes from 100 to 1 or 0, then accounting-wise you have to declare that as a loss. That only happens if they're listed, if they're off the market then they become less liquid for investors but accounting wise there's no loss (yet) to declare. So if they open, the stocks all go to shit -> same day all the russian banks, pension funds and other financial institutions holding positions will face massive losses, possibly making them insolvent, accelerating the ongoing financial collapse of the country. If the stock markets don't open, they might be able to hide the situation for a tad longer. It's also worth noting that the stock market being closed doesn't mean the value is 0. The value is still owning a part of the company, which has value > 0 until it declares bankruptcy. It also doesn't mean you can't trade that share, just as a fish market closing doesn't mean fishermen can no longer sell fish. It just means it's way harder to connect potential buyers with potential sellers, and there will be greater variation in the valuation of the shares upon trading. But if the stock market remains closed long enough people will find a way (unless trading itself is made illegal). | ||
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pmh
1352 Posts
-Recognizing crimea and donbass republics. -Neutrality in constition of remaining state. If this will be met they would stop the operation,saying that they are almost done with the demilitarization of Ukraine. This would probably give them most of the coastline and territorial waters that come with it. The landbridge to crimea. Its bad but its better then the outcome that would follow from continuing the current course of action. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/?utm_source=reddit.com | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21691 Posts
On March 07 2022 22:46 pmh wrote: demand neutrality. so he can be sure he can invade the rest again at a later date.Russia has made their demands clear (in the news here,west eu). -Recognizing crimea and donbass republics. -Neutrality in constition of remaining state. If this will be met they would stop the operation,saying that they are almost done with the demilitarization of Ukraine. This would probably give them most of the coastline and territorial waters that come with it. The landbridge to crimea. Its bad but its better then the outcome that i did expect for this conflict. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/?utm_source=reddit.com Its easy to talk from the safety of where I'm sitting but I don't see why Ukraine would accept that. | ||
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Legan
Finland408 Posts
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500812687009267712?cxt=HHwWgICyuf3L-tMpAAAA Seems like only thing that Russia is really willing to give up is total occupation of Ukraine. In the current situation I don't see Ukraine giving in to anything that would restrict them politically in future. Giving up some land to be able join NATO and EU seems much easier to agree than the opposite. Especially as long as sanctions are having big effect and support for Ukraine is high. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25396 Posts
There’s nothing like an invasion to, at least in the short and medium term to completely destroy any appetite for that within Ukraine. In addition, short of the (unrealistic) provision of direct military aid, a fair fucking amount of aid and practical support has come Ukraine’s way. Plenty have come to bat for them. Not just with platitudes but in practically meaningful ways. This is surely the worst of both worlds for Russia and a massive strategic blunder no? I don’t see any other way to spin it. They’ve both further antagonised the people of a nation and given an opportunity for ‘the West’ to show itself in a good light. If Ukraine had been completely abandoned by the international community at large m, then perhaps ‘ok well we need Russia off our back and why would we risk them invading again for the sake of dalliances that didn’t help us whatsoever here’. Then maybe that offer becomes more palatable. Or a gradual tightening of the screws over time from Russia, and some future ‘in’ presents itself. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
See this assessment from a Russian-born finance professor (currently a professor in IE in Madrid) on the prospects for the Russian economy: https://mobile.twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987 Honestly, time seems to be on the Ukrainian side. How are the Russians going to keep fighting if they are not able to replace equipment, replace soldiers or pay civil servants? | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
It doesn't really matter what the terms were that Ukraine rejected, as long as at the headline level it's Russia making an offer that is not accepted. If the war continues, maybe grinds to a halt similar to the Luhansk/Donetsk front until this year, at some point the desire to get even a bad peace will lead to pressure for Ukraine to give concessions. Right now it's easy to call the peace offers unacceptable and keep a hard line, but say in a year from now there will be much more people saying 'oh just give Russia Crimea and be done with it, we want to get back to business as usual'. The fatigue will kick in and then even nominal gestures towards any resolution will be viewed in a different light. Obviously I'm hoping Russia has pulled back and there is an actual peace much before any of these kind of scenarios would be happening. | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4122 Posts
On March 07 2022 22:46 pmh wrote: Russia has made their demands clear. -Recognizing crimea and donbass republics. -Neutrality in constition of remaining state. If this will be met they would stop the operation,saying that they are almost done with the demilitarization of Ukraine. This would probably give them most of the coastline and territorial waters that come with it. The landbridge to crimea. Its bad but its better then the outcome that would follow from continuing the current course of action. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/?utm_source=reddit.com Russia hasn't made their demands clear, Russia has changed their demands. Two weeks ago the demands were regime change and complete demilitarization, this is a large shift in position. This statement is the starting point for negotiations from the Russian side and as such a clear indication that Russia is willing to negotiate out of the current situation. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21691 Posts
On March 07 2022 23:56 Fildun wrote: its very easy for Russia to negotiate itself out of the current situation.Russia hasn't made their demands clear, Russia has changed their demands. Two weeks ago the demands were regime change and complete demilitarization, this is a large shift in position. This statement is the starting point for negotiations from the Russian side and as such a clear indication that Russia is willing to negotiate out of the current situation. Cease hostilities and withdraw all their forces from Ukraine, voila done. No one is looking to take this war into Russia so withdrawing is all Putin needs to do to get out this war. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11517 Posts
On March 08 2022 00:26 Gorsameth wrote: its very easy for Russia to negotiate itself out of the current situation. Cease hostilities and withdraw all their forces from Ukraine, voila done. No one is looking to take this war into Russia so withdrawing is all Putin needs to do to get out this war. This is the important part. Russia can end this war at any point in time, and at no threat to Russia whatsoever. They just need to agree that they don't get to steal stuff from Ukraine. They might even get to keep the stuff they already stole. But that is not enough for Russia. They want to be bribed with more of Ukraines stuff to stop the war. And they want Ukraine to agree that they put themselves in a position where Russia can steal more of their stuff whenever it wants to in the future. | ||
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Legan
Finland408 Posts
On March 07 2022 23:55 Oukka wrote: I think peace offers like this are at least partially meant to legitimise the war and it's likely continuation/escalation and to pave way for eventual concessions from Ukraine. My thinking is that it becomes easier for Putin to sell the story of special operation to liberate Ukraine from 'drug abuser' Zelenskiy or w/e bullshit each time he can have headlines about Ukraine rejecting some offer for a ceasefire or peace. It doesn't really matter what the terms were that Ukraine rejected, as long as at the headline level it's Russia making an offer that is not accepted. If the war continues, maybe grinds to a halt similar to the Luhansk/Donetsk front until this year, at some point the desire to get even a bad peace will lead to pressure for Ukraine to give concessions. Right now it's easy to call the peace offers unacceptable and keep a hard line, but say in a year from now there will be much more people saying 'oh just give Russia Crimea and be done with it, we want to get back to business as usual'. The fatigue will kick in and then even nominal gestures towards any resolution will be viewed in a different light. Obviously I'm hoping Russia has pulled back and there is an actual peace much before any of these kind of scenarios would be happening. Probably true that Russia is only participating in negotiations for optics. They also only seem to be ready to have evacuation corridor to Russia and Belarus, and not towards western Ukraine. It would be super easy to use those refugees as props in propaganda, and now they can blame Ukraine for refuges not having safe passage. | ||
KwarK
United States42716 Posts
On March 08 2022 00:26 Gorsameth wrote: its very easy for Russia to negotiate itself out of the current situation. Cease hostilities and withdraw all their forces from Ukraine, voila done. No one is looking to take this war into Russia so withdrawing is all Putin needs to do to get out this war. The issue there is Crimea. When it comes to Crimea Ukraine is looking to take it into “Russia”. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5281 Posts
an independent Crimea is not on the table. edit: an evacuation corridor makes it so that red cross and other humanitarian associations can go through it ... and they can carry weapons. | ||
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
On March 08 2022 00:31 Simberto wrote: This is the important part. Russia can end this war at any point in time, and at no threat to Russia whatsoever. They just need to agree that they don't get to steal stuff from Ukraine. They might even get to keep the stuff they already stole. But that is not enough for Russia. They want to be bribed with more of Ukraines stuff to stop the war. And they want Ukraine to agree that they put themselves in a position where Russia can steal more of their stuff whenever it wants to in the future. Imo it's not enough just to withdraw. Russia needs to pay reparations to Ukraine and the international sanctions should continue (perhaps at a less intense level than now) until they have paid back some substantial amount. That said, I imagine Russia will have a problem paying reparations because its economy is going to be in the shit for the foreseable future... Any demands of neutrality are bullshit, Ukraine is sovereign. edit: I suppose from this point of view Russia will just try to grind on in Ukraine. This will be really bad for the Ukrainians, and to a lesser extent, Russians. I imagine that the only way out in this case is some revolution in Russia. | ||
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