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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On March 08 2022 23:43 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 23:34 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:So apparently when the Russians knocked out Ukrainian communications infrastructure they also knocked out the only way for them to have secure communications thus allowing NATO/Ukraine to intercept and listen in on them talking. + Show Spoiler + So what this war proves is that everyone, including the russians, greatly overerstimated the russian capabilities to wage competent war. FTFY. Any country can invade another country. Happens all the time. But can you do it competently? Not a lot can.
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Russian incompetence is one thing but Western and Ukrainian intelligence deserves some credit too, they did a great job so far.
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On March 08 2022 23:43 Simberto wrote:So what this war proves is that everyone, including the russians, greatly overerstimated the russian capabilities to wage war.
I am a little bit skeptical about this news. I mean, if You can listen to enemy calls, You do not post about it on Twitter. You use it to gain tactical and strategic advantage.
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For those interested in European energy sources should check out the website: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2a.html
It shows country specific energy mixes, albeit not in a super accessible and concise way. But all the data from 2019 is aggregated. I havent found a country based inport source for the fossil fuels yet though, that is required to properly grasp how depended the EU is on autocratic countries.
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You cut them by removing gas from your energy mix. You replace it with electricity. The problem is that you then need to generate enough electricity to replace it.
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On March 09 2022 02:04 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2022 23:43 Simberto wrote:So what this war proves is that everyone, including the russians, greatly overerstimated the russian capabilities to wage war. I am a little bit skeptical about this news. I mean, if You can listen to enemy calls, You do not post about it on Twitter. You use it to gain tactical and strategic advantage.
That depends probably on, if enemy can actually do something about it. If they can't because they are forced to use commercial solutions, then it should be easy to demoralize by make it well known that any electric communication they use may be listened on. Something like breaking encoding is different case as enemy could change it.
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You cannot replace gas so easily in every process. Heating homes would work in theory and in part even in practice on a short notice. But when it comes to methane as an input into chemical processes or high temperature heat delivery, I'm rather sceptical that we'd find quick and cost effective replacements that work with power. But the faster we electrify society the better. I'm all up for it.
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There is movement regarding the Polish Mig 29 planes.
Poland will now swap those planes for US planes. Those planes are now to be flown to the US base of Ramstein, Germany. And then the US can do whatever they want with those planes...
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On March 09 2022 04:17 mahrgell wrote: There is movement regarding the Polish Mig 29 planes.
Poland will now swap those planes for US planes. Those planes are now to be flown to the US base of Ramstein, Germany. And then the US can do whatever they want with those planes... Oh wow, I honestly thought the US and Polish governments had abandoned that proposal
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On March 09 2022 02:48 Artisreal wrote: You cannot replace gas so easily in every process. Heating homes would work in theory and in part even in practice on a short notice. But when it comes to methane as an input into chemical processes or high temperature heat delivery, I'm rather sceptical that we'd find quick and cost effective replacements that work with power. But the faster we electrify society the better. I'm all up for it. My poor understanding is that at least for Germany gas is also mostly an issue for the next winter. Current reserves are enough to get the country through this winter and the warmer seasons so there is at least some time to figure out what to.do about the energy supply. Obviously a 10-12months isn't enough for a total overhaul, but it's not like a cliff edge where homes go cold next week. Idk if it is the same for Italy or the other countries that are heavily reliant on Russian gas.
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On March 09 2022 04:17 mahrgell wrote: There is movement regarding the Polish Mig 29 planes.
Poland will now swap those planes for US planes. Those planes are now to be flown to the US base of Ramstein, Germany. And then the US can do whatever they want with those planes... Guess Poland didn't want to be the ones trading them and instead it will be the US while staring Putin in the eye saying "what you gonna do about it".
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I'm on my phone, so take this with a grain of salt due to the small screen real estate. In 2019 around 40 of natural gas was used domestically in Germany, according to the working group energy balances (AG Energiebilanzen)
On March 09 2022 04:41 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2022 04:26 Oukka wrote:On March 09 2022 02:48 Artisreal wrote: You cannot replace gas so easily in every process. Heating homes would work in theory and in part even in practice on a short notice. But when it comes to methane as an input into chemical processes or high temperature heat delivery, I'm rather sceptical that we'd find quick and cost effective replacements that work with power. But the faster we electrify society the better. I'm all up for it. My poor understanding is that at least for Germany gas is also mostly an issue for the next winter. Current reserves are enough to get the country through this winter and the warmer seasons so there is at least some time to figure out what to.do about the energy supply. Obviously a 10-12months isn't enough for a total overhaul, but it's not like a cliff edge where homes go cold next week. Idk if it is the same for Italy or the other countries that are heavily reliant on Russian gas. Unless Germans are a lot better at then we are there is probably massive savings in energy if you could fix drafts, increase insulation and have people keep their houses cooler or get a smart thermostat even. I'm not suggesting this would solve the problem, but it would help and it would overall help society. Whether it is government incentives, prices going up, or social pressure/marketing to "stick it Putin", now would be an awesome time to tackle some of these issues that have existed for a long time but hard to get people motivated to do it. we are.
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I donated a small amount of money today for charities that support Ukraine. If you haven't, please do your fair bit as war is devastating and this is war on democracy as you all well know. Other than that, I'm happy that most of the world is coming together, especially after a tough period like COVID after 2 years since this pandemic began.
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On February 28 2022 10:50 Belisarius wrote: It's really tough to think of something that would satisfy both sides.
There is value in giving Putin an out, but he's put himself in such a terrible position that I can't see how any offer short of accepting his demands from a few days ago would satisfy his ego. And that's obviously out because... *waves vaguely at everything*
The midground position is probably something like recognising DNR/LNR as independent in exchange for Ukraine coming under the umbrella, but that's simultaneously far more than Putin deserves and far less than he would accept.
I feel like these talks won't be very fruitful. It would take huge internal pressure from within Russia for Putin to back down, and if that pressure did materialise he is probably gone anyway. It's a break-but-don't-bend situation.
NATO is never going to accept what Putin wants because if he forces Ukraine to SWEAR neutrality with an invasion what's to stop him from doing that to every bordering country that is also considering NATO membership?
It's completely ridiculous and the Ukrainians know it. Putin is already violating a 1990's treaty which guaranteed that Russia recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for all of its Nuclear Weapons. He's already violating treaties, what's to stop him from violating more?
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On March 09 2022 05:08 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 10:50 Belisarius wrote: It's really tough to think of something that would satisfy both sides.
There is value in giving Putin an out, but he's put himself in such a terrible position that I can't see how any offer short of accepting his demands from a few days ago would satisfy his ego. And that's obviously out because... *waves vaguely at everything*
The midground position is probably something like recognising DNR/LNR as independent in exchange for Ukraine coming under the umbrella, but that's simultaneously far more than Putin deserves and far less than he would accept.
I feel like these talks won't be very fruitful. It would take huge internal pressure from within Russia for Putin to back down, and if that pressure did materialise he is probably gone anyway. It's a break-but-don't-bend situation.
NATO is never going to accept what Putin wants because if he forces Ukraine to SWEAR neutrality with an invasion what's to stop him from doing that to every bordering country that is also considering NATO membership? It's completely ridiculous and the Ukrainians know it. Putin is already violating a 1990's treaty which guaranteed that Russia recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for all of its Nuclear Weapons. He's already violating treaties, what's to stop him from violating more?
Yeah, also "way out" doesn't really work with dictators. We had this example with Neville Chamberlain and Hitler. We also had Russo-Georgian war under Putin, we then had Crimea, we have whole of Ukraine invaded. Never feed wolves... They are never satisfied, they have quite the appetite.
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