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On January 07 2023 07:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So what is stopping Poland, and the Czechs from simply ignoring Germany if they veto any Tank transfer? And decide to give them to Ukraine, or better yet loan them loan them out, Poland already has defense contracts with S. Korea and the US etc.
Contracts, almost certainly. And sure, you can technically ignore contracts, but that is rarely a good thing for a nation to do, unless you want to completely isolate yourself afterwards.
Thats like asking what is stopping a loan taker from simply ignoring any back payments. That only sounds smart if you are either 12 or the king of the world. (in the latter case it sadly also works often enough)
It would simply be a precedent that would prevent basically any defense deal for Poland with Germany from ever happening again and even many other countries with some sort of export control (and most countries export weaponry with limitations on the usage) would also immediately stop doing defense business with Poland.
And this is ignoring any sort of active economic retaliation, where Germany has plenty of potential.
UA is using salt mine tunnels to go behind the enemy lines in Soledar. There's some increased activity in the Kherson area too.
It seems to me that we have more and more news of air force involvement on the UA side. Would it indicate that perhaps Russian AA systems are not up to the task any more?
On January 07 2023 07:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So what is stopping Poland, and the Czechs from simply ignoring Germany if they veto any Tank transfer? And decide to give them to Ukraine, or better yet loan them loan them out, Poland already has defense contracts with S. Korea and the US etc.
For starter it would mean an sudden end to spare part delivery from German MiC, which in time wreck their respective militaries. Also showing yourself untrustworthy while attempting to rearm after major weapon deliveries is a terrible idea. Without this support whatever was gifted to Ukraine wouldn't last that long as well.
So you could see the amount of Ukrainian forces concentrated around Bakhmut, which I was talking about earlier. You can do your own brigade counting and deduce, how much of their forces UA dedicated to it.
Another interesting point is that Russian forces withdrawn from Kherson seems not to reappear anywhere on the front, so they are probably still on R&R, getting refilled with mobilized and new equipment. Though could be older info, probably should check separately on each unit.
Russian OSINT also implied (and you could see it on this map as well, near Poltava), that Ukraine is forming two Army Corps (which is unusual for Ukraine since it generally doesn't operate in such formations) by creating several new brigades. Some sources even speaking of possible three corps to be created. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/4/7153582/ https://t.me/rybar/42494
If confirmed it would be a hell of a capture by Ukraine, that of Antonina Zakharova chief Doctor for the Wagner group, and she would probably be put to death. If not sent to the Hague for war crimes.
Yeah you can't execute prisoners under any condition, Sending them to the Hauge to be judged and then given the death penalty is what every nation but one has to do.
On January 08 2023 02:40 Gorsameth wrote: 'accidents' happen. Yes you shouldn't execute prisoners. But when soldiers meet people who tortured and abused your friends it happens.
Reality often doesn't match up with the rosy pictures we paint in time of peace.
Then you don't leak the capture at first. No doubt a lot of "capturable" enemies are just killed in an emotional rage. As you said, war is rarely rosy and in the lower levels of war a ton of shitty things just never get dug up. But once stuff rises to the higher levels, unless you are an absolute shithole country or a nuclear superpower, it kinda pays to not commit too outrageous war crimes (especially when relying on the public support of the rest of the world for your survival). And so far Ukraine has navigated this really well and even the Russian media attempts to undermine this failed mostly.
Then again, I would really like to see some credible sources for the entire rumor. It's circulating since yesterday, and yet no serious source has picked it up. This makes me think that this is closer to all the stories about captured high-level militaries we have seen when Lyman fell than anything substantial.
So iirc some months ago the topic of "do we give tanks to Ukraine" was often met with the argument that ukrainian soldiers couldnt use "our" relatively up-to-date tanks anyway since they had no training with them. Now that france/germany(+others) will give tanks to Ukraine, from what I read training still has to happen, but there were curiously few specifics.
I really wonder how this will take place. I cant imagine too many nato soldiers going (officially) into Ukraine to train ukrainians, so does this mean ukrainian soldiers will be trained in france/germany/etc? Also, what is a realisitic estimate for when ukrainians will have the skills to actually use these tanks in combat? Did anyone of you read something about this?
On January 08 2023 06:53 Mafe wrote: So iirc some months ago the topic of "do we give tanks to Ukraine" was often met with the argument that ukrainian soldiers couldnt use "our" relatively up-to-date tanks anyway since they had no training with them. Now that france/germany(+others) will give tanks to Ukraine, from what I read training still has to happen, but there were curiously few specifics.
I really wonder how this will take place. I cant imagine too many nato soldiers going (officially) into Ukraine to train ukrainians, so does this mean ukrainian soldiers will be trained in france/germany/etc? Also, what is a realisitic estimate for when ukrainians will have the skills to actually use these tanks in combat? Did anyone of you read something about this?
A lot of Ukrainian soldiers are already being trained in the UK under an international taskforce. I assume something similar will happen with Ukrainian tank crews going to an EU country to train.
Your right that NATO is not going to send instructors to Ukraine because they cant guarantee their protection there.
On January 08 2023 06:53 Mafe wrote: So iirc some months ago the topic of "do we give tanks to Ukraine" was often met with the argument that ukrainian soldiers couldnt use "our" relatively up-to-date tanks anyway since they had no training with them. Now that france/germany(+others) will give tanks to Ukraine, from what I read training still has to happen, but there were curiously few specifics.
I really wonder how this will take place. I cant imagine too many nato soldiers going (officially) into Ukraine to train ukrainians, so does this mean ukrainian soldiers will be trained in france/germany/etc? Also, what is a realisitic estimate for when ukrainians will have the skills to actually use these tanks in combat? Did anyone of you read something about this?
A lot of Ukrainian soldiers are already being trained in the UK under an international taskforce. I assume something similar will happen with Ukrainian tank crews going to an EU country to train.
Your right that NATO is not going to send instructors to Ukraine because they cant guarantee their protection there.
At least the Marder training will be done in Germany and Slovakia according to most articles I've read on the topic. I've read one interview where a Bundeswher general also mentioned training in Poland, but looking up any kind of news sources I've found now, I never saw this mentioned again. The Marders are to be delivered by end of march. The training of the Ukrainians on the system is supposed to take 6 weeks (for already trained tank crews, not from scratch)
Also, there is an ongoing discussion, about which Marders are to be delivered... Since the Puma program is currently on hold and investigations are running due to technical difficulties (that's another story though), and the Bundeswehr elements leading the NATO quick response are forced to use the Marder instead of the Puma, the Bundeswehr does not have any modern spare Marder. (2 months ago they still considered most Marders surplus....)
Greece suggested the Marders they should receive in the ring swap could also be forwarded to Ukraine for now. Otherwise the Bundeswehr still has a bunch of the older generations in storage, but those have no real AT capabilities (as they lack the missile launcher so their heaviest weapon is a 20mm gun) Still even those would be valuable assets as they provide way more protection than what is used so far in this war by Ukraine. But in that case, they would probably have to be paired with the AMX10, then you have a paper car with a decent gun, and a well armored IFV with just a pewpew.
On January 08 2023 06:53 Mafe wrote: So iirc some months ago the topic of "do we give tanks to Ukraine" was often met with the argument that ukrainian soldiers couldnt use "our" relatively up-to-date tanks anyway since they had no training with them. Now that france/germany(+others) will give tanks to Ukraine, from what I read training still has to happen, but there were curiously few specifics.
I really wonder how this will take place. I cant imagine too many nato soldiers going (officially) into Ukraine to train ukrainians, so does this mean ukrainian soldiers will be trained in france/germany/etc? Also, what is a realisitic estimate for when ukrainians will have the skills to actually use these tanks in combat? Did anyone of you read something about this?
A lot of Ukrainian soldiers are already being trained in the UK under an international taskforce. I assume something similar will happen with Ukrainian tank crews going to an EU country to train.
Your right that NATO is not going to send instructors to Ukraine because they cant guarantee their protection there.
Yes, training would simply take place outside ukraine. They also had to get trained on the PzH2000 which happened in germany as it had the required facilities. You train a smaller group of ukrainian soldiers and they then train people back in ukraine.
The "they don't know how to use it" arguments were either brought up in a not entirely honest defence when you had to justify not sending tanks, or as a factual argument why deciding to send tanks right that moment would not change anything. Or at least those are the 2 cases where I have seen it come up.
I think it's entirely possible that Ukrainians have already been training on more modern stuff for some time now, just in case. Anyway, there's quite a large contingent of Ukrainian soldiers being trained across various NATO countries (Poland, UK, Germany).
Finland to announce a new defense package for Ukraine in the next few weeks.
Finland is preparing to send a new shipment of defence equipment to Ukraine, Defence Minister Mikko Savola said on Saturday.
Decisions on aid will be made in the next few weeks, Savola said on Twitter. For security reasons, its contents will not be disclosed, he added.
This will be the twelfth shipment of defence equipment sent by Finland since Russia's attack in February.
"Finland supports Ukraine. We are preparing the 12th aid package. Decisions will be made in the coming weeks. The content of the support is being prepared together with the Defence Forces, ensuring that we do not weaken our own defence capability," Savola wrote.
"International discussions are continuously taking place. For security reasons, Finland will not reveal the content of the support in public," he added in a second tweet.
On Friday evening, Savola told commercial broadcaster MTV that government and the Finnish Defence Forces were considering sending tanks to Ukraine. Savola said he was pleased that the international discussion on how to help Ukraine was becoming increasingly coordinated.
Häkkänen: Finland should donate Leopard tanks if other EU states do
Also on Friday, Parliamentary Defence Committee chair Antti Häkkänen of the main opposition National Coalition Party (NCP) told MTV that Finland should provide Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 battle tanks if other European countries decide to do so. Germany must approve any deployment of the tanks by other countries.
Last week German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said that no other countries were currently supplying such tanks to Ukraine and that Germany would not do so unilaterally. On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported that Poland was planning to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv.
Häkkänen is a former cabinet minister – and likely to become one again if the NCP wins this spring's elections, as suggested by opinion polls.
Savola, meanwhile, took over as interim defence minister on Thursday, replacing his Centre Party colleague Antti Kaikkonen, who is on paternity leave.
EPT
No doubt a lot of "capturable" enemies are just killed in an emotional rage.
