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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 197

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-08-27 19:58:12
August 27 2022 19:52 GMT
#3921
Czech Republic approve of Sweden, and Finland joining NATO.



edit: heavy strikes happening in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
August 28 2022 02:19 GMT
#3922
New video on the YT channel Good Times Bad Times summarizing recent changes and an assessment of the conflict. Not very in depth, but good for those who want a quick and simple overview.

If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
August 28 2022 12:53 GMT
#3923
Finally movement on the EU Russian tourist visa ban. Compromise, but a good first step.


EU foreign ministers are this week set to back a suspension of the bloc’s visa facilitation agreement with Moscow in an effort to curb the number of travel permits issued after some eastern member states threatened to unilaterally close their borders to Russian tourists.

Some countries have demanded collective action to stop ordinary Russians from travelling to the EU on tourist visas, in the latest challenge for the bloc as it tries to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine while maintaining unity among its 27 members.

Countries including the Czech Republic and Poland stopped issuing visas to Russian tourists shortly after president Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February. They have since demanded that Brussels enact a complete ban, echoing a plea from Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But others have continued to grant the travel documents, allowing Russians with visas to travel anywhere in the Schengen free-movement area.

As a first step, ministers plan to give political support to suspending the EU-Russia visa facilitation agreement at a two-day meeting in Prague that begins on Tuesday, three officials involved in the talks told the Financial Times.

“It is inappropriate for Russian tourists to stroll in our cities, on our marinas,” said a senior EU official involved in the talks. “We have to send a signal to the Russian population that this war is not OK, it is not acceptable.”

Parts of the 2007 deal relating to free movement of government officials and businessmen were suspended in late February. A wider suspension would remove preferential treatment for Russians when applying for all EU visas, requiring more documents, making them more expensive and significantly increasing waiting times.

“We are in an exceptional situation and it requires exceptional steps. We want to go beyond suspending the visa facilitation,” said the senior EU official, adding that deeper changes could be introduced by the end of the year.

However, there is no consensus on additional measures that Brussels could take that would either reduce the number of EU visas to be issued to Russians or halt their issuance entirely, or on proposals such as extending any ban to citizens of Belarus, which has supported Putin’s invasion.

Some countries, including Germany, have cautioned against an outright ban. Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat who will chair the Prague talks, has said he opposes a ban on all Russian visas, saying the bloc needed to “be more selective”.

Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries, which border Russia, have therefore suggested they are prepared to stop allowing Russians with tourist visas to enter their territories, citing the Schengen agreement’s national security exceptions.

With air travel between the EU and Russia suspended, many Russian tourists use these countries as a transit route to other EU destinations. Kaja Kallas, prime minister of Estonia, said last week that 30 per cent of Russians travelling to the EU do so via the Baltic state.

“I do look forward to finding a joint European solution on how to significantly limit the flows of Russian tourists to Europe,” said Lithuania’s foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, describing a deal among the 27 as “the most sustainable and legally correct one”.

But, he added: “If a joint solution is not found, we do not rule out a regional agreement among the countries most affected by the huge flows of Russian tourists abusing European hospitality.”

Countries in favour of a full ban on Russians visiting the EU for tourism have said that they do not want a full border closure, and that exceptions must be retained for humanitarian reasons, asylum claims and to allow dissidents of the Putin regime to flee.
Source
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-08-28 13:42:17
August 28 2022 13:42 GMT
#3924
Germany/EU finds itself having more Natural Gas in storage than it anticipated at this time.

Germany’s gas storage facilities are filling up faster than planned despite uncertainty over supplies through a key pipeline from Russia, according to Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

“Companies will then be able to withdraw the gas in the storage facilities as planned over the winter in order to also supply industry and households,” Der Spiegel magazine quoted Habeck as saying in an interview published Sunday.

Germany is racing to fill gas storage in time for winter after Russia drastically cut flows through the key Nord Stream pipeline, driving up prices and exacerbating Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades. The ruling coalition in Berlin has mandated that facilities be 85% full by October and 95% by November.

According to the Federal Network Agency’s latest report, storage was 81.3% full as of Friday, with flows through Nord Stream at about 20% of capacity.

The October target will already be met early next month, Spiegel reported, citing an economy ministry paper.

Gazprom PJSC announced this month it will stop delivering gas to Europe through Nord Stream for three days starting Wednesday.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
August 28 2022 14:59 GMT
#3925
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11773 Posts
August 28 2022 15:04 GMT
#3926
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?


I think having russian tourists in the EU under the current situation is absurd.

Imo the only Russians we should let in are refugees fleeing Putins Regime.
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12058 Posts
August 28 2022 15:04 GMT
#3927
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?

Have a Russian that I work together with. She had to go and get her sister since she was worried about the border closing down (don't know details). So on an individual level it matters depending on implementation.

On a system level it would mean you impact the individuals on the Russian side more but also that you lose tourist incomes. As for war impact, highly doubt anything happens. Perhaps a few less Russian spies but doubt they would have any major issues.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 28 2022 15:09 GMT
#3928
Multiple strikes reported near Oleshki, Kherson. Supposedly a Russian base. Several large explosions have continued to happen after the strikes.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
August 28 2022 15:13 GMT
#3929
--- Nuked ---
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9284 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-08-28 15:48:42
August 28 2022 15:48 GMT
#3930
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?


Suspending tourist visas for Russians sounds like a right move. Talking about solidarity with Ukraine while accepting Russian yachts in European ports just looks bad. Common Russian tourism destinations like Greece, Cyprus and maybe Bulgaria and Croatia should be somehow compensated if we agree to do that though.

Banning Russian workers would be a mistake. I think taking money from Russian tourists looks bad, but paying Russian workers doesn't. There isn't much to gain from banning them and it could cause a lot of serious personal problems for those already working or those who are about to start working in Europe.
You're now breathing manually
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany567 Posts
August 28 2022 16:12 GMT
#3931
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?


I am not entirely sure about it yet. I can understand the eastern european states being more in favour of it. They often have a significant russian speaking minority, which russia can utilise to create tensions within the state and try to destabilize it or influence decisions. This is a lot easier with tourist visas in place that make it easier to get agents in and out.

Outside of that context, I am a bit worried because I don't think isolation in general is a good idea. When you enact a ban like this, you also have to think about when you want to end it. The war in ukraine is currently shaping up to be a stalemate and the chance of ukraine driving russia out of all of ukraine seems tiny to non-existent at the moment. The intensity of the combat will slow down eventually, but without a diplomatic solution I think it will go on for quite some time.

Now people speak of russian propaganda and brain washed masses, russians coming to the west is probably the best chance of them of stepping out of the propaganda bubble. Shutting them out to me seems problematic since ultimately we will have to have some form of relationship with them in the future.

It could put more pressure on putin because people want to travel, but I don't think that is very likely. I think it is more likely that it feeds into the 'the west hates russia' narrative. JimmiC mentioned people being angry because of covid restrictions, who did those people get angry at? The people that enacted the bans. It is not russia that wants to ban visas, the russian government can just throw up their hands and say 'Hey, I would love it if you could spend your holiday in the EU, sadly, they hate you and banned tourist visas'.

I have not formed my opinion on a travel ban yet, because I don't know what the results will be. Will it put enough pressure on the russian government? Or will it instead unite the russian people more behind their government, seeing the west as this hostile entity that acts hostile towards the common citizen.I also don't know how realistic the threat of russian tourists to the eastern european countries is.


What I do however categorically oppose are reasonings that include arguments such as "It is inappropriate for Russian tourists to stroll in our cities, on our marinas" as in the cited article. The take me back to 2001 after the attacks on the world trade center, and the start of the war on terror. Back when some people felt entitled to demand any muslim to condemn the attacks. I know a couple of people IRL who have the same attitude now towards "russians". Russians is in quotation marks because they are directing this at ethnic russians(whatever that means in practice...), even if those have the german citizenship, or are even born here. Citizens are not directly liable for the actions of their government. Otherwise we all would have to do a lot of apologizing.

I am also not a fan of blind activism where you want to do something, just so you are doing something. There should be a beneficial goal to whatever you are doing, hence me contemplating what there is to gain from a toursim ban vs what its risks are.
mh_mh
Profile Joined August 2022
8 Posts
August 28 2022 16:12 GMT
#3932
[
On August 29 2022 00:13 JimmiC wrote:
It would be a big blow to the feelings of people in Russia. People are used to being able to go where they want and it would make them a lot more mad about the war. Look at how mad people are at the covid restrictions on travel. Now they cannot vote out Putin or anything but more negative attention on him is what the world wants.

And why do you think that they would blame Putin for the travel ban? Russian propaganda will put all blame on NATO and many Russians will believe or at least accept it because that is how propaganda works. I don't know what the right move is but maybe we should invite Russians into the EU so they can be free from propaganda for a while and learn our views on the war in Ukraine. I don't think that Russian spies depend on a travel visa.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 28 2022 19:09 GMT
#3933
Updated images of the Antonovskiy Bridge, no repairs seem to be taking place. How Russia is getting supplies across could be by Ferry, as no Pontoons are visible.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria837 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-08-28 20:29:33
August 28 2022 20:28 GMT
#3934
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?


I'm ok with letting them in as long as they can explain what they understood from 1984 book at border check. Similarities with Putin's regime are rather a lot.

On a serious note, I don't feel strongly about this ban. It's probably useless. Ban only makes sense if they are forbidden from importing chips and other sanctioned items on their way home. When you introduce Iron Curtain v2 they cannot see that grass is greener on the other side. Instead, I think propaganda at home would get the upper hand with such a ban but that's just my opinion and I'm very much anti-Kremlin.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
August 28 2022 20:33 GMT
#3935
There are some interesting speculations going on regarding Russia's financial situation. They're operating at a 2% budget deficit (might be higher but those are the official numbers I think) and they have to plug the gaps with whatever's left of their budget stabilization funds (big part of which were frozen). The calculations say that at this rate Russia will run out of money in 12-18 months, especially that they have a very hard time securing any foreign loans (their rating was downgraded to C and they're in default in addition to all the sanctions).

I wonder how accurate is all this info and if this budget deficit won't get worse suddenly with more and more work force losing employment, inflation, supply chain problems etc. etc.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
August 29 2022 11:25 GMT
#3936
The Twitter thread below suggests that UA confirmed starting a counteroffensive in the south this morning. At this juncture, I would treat this as true as long as you don't ask about the scale of the offensive. There's a great deal of chatter about this on both sides.

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7117 Posts
August 29 2022 11:44 GMT
#3937
On August 27 2022 17:29 Artesimo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2022 10:49 Sermokala wrote:
On August 27 2022 08:20 Artesimo wrote:
On August 27 2022 06:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On August 27 2022 04:43 Artesimo wrote:
On August 27 2022 02:20 Ghanburighan wrote:
On August 26 2022 23:01 mahrgell wrote:
On August 26 2022 21:54 Ghanburighan wrote:
Two things:

A) there's a distinction between not supplying weapons with certain range and supplying such weapons under the explicit condition that UA doesn't use them to strike RU.

B) in diplomacy, timing is a factor. Germany forgot this.


Okay, so Germany delivered PzH2000, MARS-II and lately also Vulcano ammo (which not even the Bundeswehr uses yet)... Obviously Germany is totally holding back on its delivery of long-range weapon platforms.


That's what makes the statement so nonsensical. The support is there. Everyone agrees. But it does feel like it's being sent behind Scholz's back or he forgot or something.


I feel like we would need at the original quote and its context to determine that. Because at the moment I am more leaning towards someone picking the interpretation that fits their narrative and running with it. Language is ambiguous.

I think he is saying Germany could do more, and is just posing on doing "something". As could and should other countries do as well, including mine.

As for original topic yes, Germany has been in Putin's "pocket" whether or not you guys like it, you can blame your green party for that.


If you are insisting that this is because of nuclear, then no. not at all and I am too tired of going over this again. TLDR: more complex, nuclear would probably not have changed much. You can think what you want about the decision to quit nuclear (which happened under merkel btw...), but this current crisis is no argument for it. As long as gas was cheap and reliable, there is no way people will replace its infrastructure just for the sake of it.

You would have needed deliberate efforts to get rid of gas heating (subsidising installing electrical heating, stuff like that), and for industry there is no alternative it seems (which is why they are experimenting with using less of it / secretly bought up reserves shortly after the start of the war).

Yes, reliance on russian gas not so great in hindsight, but we already covered that.

I'm sorry I'm just trying to understand. More nuclear wouldn't have made sense with the cheap russian gas available but also because so many houses were gas-heated as well increasing electricity generation wouldn't have mad sense from the other end?

I think that we're going to be stuck always at the point of "well now it doesn't make sense to go nuclear but it would have been great to make that effort a decade ago." until we crack energy storage tech.


No, this has nothing to do with pro/against nuclear. It is strictly against the very common talking point of uninformed people that germany quitting nuclear or that the greens are to blame for this, when it really is a mix of the infrastructure that is in place historically, as well as the fact that that it was just plain old greed.

The reliance on gas is not the problem, but relying heavily on a single supplier. Cheap russian gas made us not build up any infrastructure for other suppliers and thus create this dependency on russia (though I like how people keep jumping between us being dependent and russia being dependent on us buying their gas, but lets not get into that...)

Cheap nuclear energy is also a conception that has its downfalls, both generally, but also historically. Germany used to have nuclear power, but out electricity still was expensive in comparison. I think this is in part due to illegal price agreements between electricity companies though, we do have a history of that. And ofc like I hinted at, the electricity cost alone is not the problem since the infrastructure for gas/oil heating is in place, extremely common and very well accepted.
You got an entire industry that is specialised in building, installing and maintaining these heating systems, that you gotta care for as well. That is why you would need strong political will to displace gas, since it would not be an easy choice and upset an industry / the people in it. You would have to build up an alternative (For example, yesterday I read an article that heat pumps are not that common in germany, in part due to them and companies that can install/service them just being rare, though a lot of older buildings are also just not suited for them because of weak insulation), through programs that support this new industry as well as the shift for industry that is getting weakened / replaced.

Which is why my conclusion is that the only thing that could have prevented this reliance on russia would have been a targeted political effort to do so.

The 'bet you want nuclear back' is just a smug almost kneejerk-like reaction that has gotten common these days, the reasons for which would derail the thread, so I am not getting into it.
But I do think it is very important to understand that our reliance on russian gas was a choice that we do not get to excuse it with 'well the greens made us quit nuclear 10years ago, there were no other options'. We have to understand where the political decision comes from and be honest about it:
Gas was cheap, it was a great deal for us until recently, and even after all probably worth it. The risk seemed not worth it to diversify our gas imports, so we consciously didn't do it, even after 2014.'

Show nested quote +
On August 27 2022 13:44 Ghanburighan wrote:
On August 27 2022 06:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On August 27 2022 04:43 Artesimo wrote:
On August 27 2022 02:20 Ghanburighan wrote:
On August 26 2022 23:01 mahrgell wrote:
On August 26 2022 21:54 Ghanburighan wrote:
Two things:

A) there's a distinction between not supplying weapons with certain range and supplying such weapons under the explicit condition that UA doesn't use them to strike RU.

B) in diplomacy, timing is a factor. Germany forgot this.


Okay, so Germany delivered PzH2000, MARS-II and lately also Vulcano ammo (which not even the Bundeswehr uses yet)... Obviously Germany is totally holding back on its delivery of long-range weapon platforms.


That's what makes the statement so nonsensical. The support is there. Everyone agrees. But it does feel like it's being sent behind Scholz's back or he forgot or something.


I feel like we would need at the original quote and its context to determine that. Because at the moment I am more leaning towards someone picking the interpretation that fits their narrative and running with it. Language is ambiguous.

I think he is saying Germany could do more, and is just posing on doing "something". As could and should other countries do as well, including mine.

As for original topic yes, Germany has been in Putin's "pocket" whether or not you guys like it, you can blame your green party for that.


Guy's, it's a thread, you can just go back a few posts and see what was said, you don't need to invent your own interpretation.

The problem from the beginning was that RU was interpretating Scholz's words as incentive to do more nuclear blackmail.

Interesting interpretation, but not one that seems plausible at all. The nuclear scare is definitely directed at the west/europe in general, and has been a constant thing, blaming a single statement for it and with such confidence seems strange to phrase it nicely.


I wanted to chime in real quick
Right now there are a lot of gas heating systems because gas was cheap. If electricity was cheap people would buy electric heating systems with or without political subsidies in place just because that's what the market dictates.
Now leaving those 3 nuclear plants turned on wouldn't really change much in that regard. They are ~ 35 years old and outdated. Building new ones would be too expensive and politically almost impossible in Germany since you can just invest that money into renewable energy with the only real benefit that nuclear plants don't care about the weather.
If/when fusion cores become a thing, this changes
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4742 Posts
August 29 2022 11:51 GMT
#3938
On August 29 2022 00:04 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2022 23:59 Magic Powers wrote:
What do people in here think about an EU-wide Russian travel ban? Is it controversial or not? Would it help the situation overall, or would it backfire, or is it more or less irrelevant for Russia's military prospects?


I think having russian tourists in the EU under the current situation is absurd.

Imo the only Russians we should let in are refugees fleeing Putins Regime.


I agree.
Pathetic Greta hater.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-08-29 12:49:27
August 29 2022 12:38 GMT
#3939
Reports coming in that Ukraine has broken through several Russian defense lines in the area of Kherson after their artillery worked all night hitting positions etc.






edit: Official it has started.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria837 Posts
August 29 2022 14:27 GMT
#3940
Hopefully Ukrainians kick them out from Kherson, that would be a major blow to Kremlin's morale
It's interesting to learn if wait time was worth it, if they figured out if Russian soldiers are exhausted and wouldn't fight as much. Next days will be important.
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