Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 195

On August 24 2022 07:11 JimmiC wrote:

Is your position that parts of the story are correct or that the entire account is correct.

My take would be there is likely some truth but more false than truth. I have a hard time believing they could solve it that quick, that the evidence on who it was and why they know it. For me the only part I believe is that she is dead, but I would not be super surprised if she was not because everything else seems fabricated.

On top of that it seems "strange" that when a putin ally dies the FBS puts a neat bow on it with incredible precision but when some one putin does not like get publicly poisoned the FBS can not find any leads for 15 years.

Summary of August 24 - half a year has passed since the start of hostilities, the Russian offensive in Donbass is not progressing, the front has essentially been standing still for the last month, and the success of the Russian units in the last five months has been very little.
- At Harkivi, the Russian side is limited to artillery fire. For two days in a row, there have been major explosions and fires on the other side of the border, in the Belgorod region, in the ammunition depots of the Russian forces. The location of the warehouses was far from the front line, so that Ukrainian artillery could not reach them. Russian officials managed to ridicule their country by justifying yesterday's explosion as self-immolation due to hot weather.
- The Izjum group probably exhausted itself with a few daytime attack attempts made around the weekend, and there is silence here for several days.
- In the direction of Kramatorsk/Siversk, the Russian units were also unable to undertake any noticeable offensive event yesterday
- There were two offensive attempts in the direction of Bahmut, like a reconnaissance battle, without success. Here too, the activity of the offensive of Russian units has continuously decreased during the last 4-5 days.
- In the southern part of Donbass, offensive attempts are a bit greener, but the general activity has been on a downward trend here as well. Yesterday, Russian units again attacked the village of Piski, which seems to show that Ukraine still controls it, at least partially. But even at the local level, it is not very important. Ukraine has continued to attack the Russian rear. Yesterday's very limited attacks on the government building of the so-called Donetsk Republic were probably organized by the Russian side, not by Ukraine. Apparently done to create a better background for attacks against Ukraine and to mobilize local public opinion for war against Ukraine.
- There were no troop movements on the southern front
- In the Kherson region, the protection of Russian units is still active. The construction of a pontoon bridge over the Denpri River near the city of Kherson continues.
Major airstrikes on Ukrainian cities are expected today, including against government institutions in Kyiv. Since Ukraine canceled public events, Russia has had an easy information victory, because they had to cancel festive events in Sevastopol twice this year. Russia last launched missile attacks across Ukraine more than two months ago. Apart from Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, bombings of Ukrainian cities have remained very rare. The missile arsenals of the Russian side are drying up. It is not possible to completely empty them, as some of these missiles are also designed to carry a nuclear charge and would therefore significantly reduce Russia's nuclear capability. No one knows exactly how many of them are left, but there are certainly quite a few attacks.
To sum up half a year, it can be said that the Russian command has not been able to assert its military superiority. More areas have been occupied, but at the same time very large areas in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv/Kherson regions have also been retreated. Without going into details, the following most important reasons can be pointed out
- aggression based on completely false political assumptions
- Russian military leadership has completely failed. In its latest reports, a research institute called ISW claims that Putin has taken the command of Russian forces under his personal control. (this should probably not be understood in the sense of operational management, but rather that he himself issues directives and directly controls their execution). This is a familiar scenario to many, usually foreshadowing an imminent major military defeat.
But also the military leadership of the Russian army at all levels has shown itself from a worse side
- Russian logistics continue to be the weakest link in this army
- Russian armament does not meet modern requirements, and its compensation with a mass army strategy is not possible in such a war, because the mobilization system in Russia essentially does not work.
- Russian soldiers' will to fight is low, there are many refusals to participate in combat. This is one reason why the Russian units, which at times had a great advantage, have not been able to invade effectively.
You will certainly find all kinds of details and reasons. The army and the people of Ukraine have still managed an incredible achievement - they pushed the Russian units away from the capital, significantly improved the situation near Kharkiv and Kherson, and stopped the so-called big offensive of the Russian army in Donbass, without ceding large territories. Great losses have been caused to the opposing side, but as the head of the Ukrainian Defense Forces announced yesterday, almost 9,000 fighters have also been lost as fallen. This will be added to the number of civilian casualties.
In the future, the one who can form, train and arm new reserve units will be more successful. Ukraine definitely has a lead of several months here. But they have become very dependent on their donor countries in terms of armaments and economic aid. Russia has considerably more internal resources for waging war, but the biggest problem is the lack of combat-capable reserve units and the very slow pace of their formation. It is also increasingly difficult for them to make up for losses in combat equipment, as the ability of the military industry to replace losses with new equipment under sanctions is not sufficient. Sanctions will increasingly disrupt Russia's ability to keep other industries necessary for the war going. In Russia, it would be most appropriate to achieve a ceasefire on the current front line for a while, in order to get out of isolation and sanctions for a few years and to prepare a new combat-capable army and ensure order in the occupied territories. For the Ukrainian side, there is still a window of time in which it is possible to improve its positions and organize counterattacks.

+ Show Spoiler +

On August 20 2022 03:44 JimmiC wrote:

Interesting it must feel surreal.

On August 17 2022 02:46 JimmiC wrote:

That makes sense on the small arms, which might even make up a significant part of their annual sales. I was more thinking of the bigger systems., even tank planes, helicopters, drones and boats. Before this war I would have thought Russian stuff was close to western, maybe better in some cases. Now if I was a nation I'd be thinking Russian stuff better super cheap for me to even consider it.

The Russian-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia’s car was blown up after the bomb was placed under the seat. As a result of the explosion, Ivan Sushko was wounded and taken to hospital in a critical condition where he died shortly afterwards.

The advisor to the mayor of the city of Mariupol, also shared the news on his Telegram stating:

“First greetings on Independence Day from Zaporizhzhya. In Zaporizhzhya region, Ivan Sushko, head of the Mykhailivka city state administration, died as a result of a deliberate car bombing.
Minus the gloom – plus for Peremogu!”

On August 25 2022 03:23 JimmiC wrote:
Apparently Dugin was actually getting critical of Putin's regime and called for a regime change saying it won't last 6 months. Now he is not anti war but rather that Russia is not going far enough but it does bring into question if he was actually a Putin ally or not.







https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/opinion-father-of-slain-russian-commentator-darya-dugina-has-been-fiercely-critical-of-putin/ar-AA111i5s?cvid=d18641312b1a4ecf9f960ebd9e6767a6

On August 25 2022 00:20 JimmiC wrote:

That is more or less how mcdonalds is here (100000 person city Im in has 2). I know for quite a while the location in Moscow was the busiest in the world and way bigger than anything Ive seen, but that could have fallen off ad it became less exciting. When I said surreal I was talking more than mcdonalds. Just all the businesses that have left in a short period if time. Like when blockbuster went under it was strange to have all these once busy and large buildings empty than changed and you guys have experienced that way more in a shorter period of time.

The small arms was brought up by someone else aswell and is a great point that I was just not thinking about. No counter point from me just and oversight.

To the other part I was mainly talking about the top end stuff as you point out if you can not train or maintain it really does not matter what is best. But if you are a country with the means then i do not think its a choice. Also if you are going to hire some one to train your upper command or soldiers, I doubt many would pick Russian now. It is clear they are way behind in everything from logicstics to strategy. From a branding marketing standpoint this has not been a win.

For the "secondary market" (not sure what term to use for countries that can not afford all that goes for the tier 1 equiptment) I would think in equiptment that there is competiitors it would also hurt the Russians. Before this I would have assumed a Russian drone would be better than a Turkish one, for example. Now I would think the opposite. There very well might be lines that Russia has no competition or switching the product would be way to costly because they are "pot commited" from a parts and service stand point. The challenge will be for Russia to not have supply issues. If country X needs part B to make their Z work and they can not get it, that is going to be a massive deal to their customers.

NIKOPOL, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s nuclear power operator says the Zaporizhzhia plant has been cut off from the electricity grid for the first time after fires damaged the last remaining transmission line.

It was not clear if the plant had been reconnected to the grid.

The loss of power to the plant is a major concern since a disruption of electricity supply could knock out cooling systems that are essential for the safe operation of the reactors, and emergency diesel generators are sometimes unreliable.

Energoatom said in a statement Thursday that the cutoff mean two remaining reactors at Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant were disconnected from the grid.

Three other transmission lines were previous damaged due to fighting between Russian forces occupying the plant and Ukrainian troops.

Energoatom said it couldn’t immediately comment on the operation of automation and safety systems.

On August 26 2022 00:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
The Zaporizhzhia plant power has been cut off due to fighting. No idea when/if the iaea is supposed to arrive since Macron and Putin talked last week.

The Russian side's yesterday's games with the nuclear plant continue to be blackmail. However, if today the head of the German government makes a statement that they will not supply weapons to Ukraine that can be used to fire on Russian territory, then from the point of view of the Russians, this is a clear submission to intimidation. It's probably a coincidence, but it looks really bad. In the case of Germany, we see a very different approach to the war in Ukraine by the foreign minister and the head of government. It seems that there is no common line with clear direction in Germany, although for the most part there is no hesitation there and Ukraine is supported very properly with various measures. For its part, Ukraine has also stopped whining about Germany - the support received from there is still very large, which cannot be replaced.

However, juggling with the nuclear issue is generating critical attitudes towards Russia even among those countries that have so far not wanted to clearly criticize Russia in this conflict. Hopefully, Western countries will be able to better use this momentum now to contain Russia.