EPT2020 US Election - Page 39
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:17 Stratos_speAr wrote: If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved. It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities. Pollsters nowadays really struggle for representative samples. There was some good articles I read about the UK elections and polls that suggested that phone interviews don't reach certain demographics almost at all and internet polls have a significant self-selection issue. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24391 Posts
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
Everything I'm reading here suggests we're going to have another Trump win soon. Hopefully not though. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:18 IyMoon wrote: They really really really missed the Hispanic vote Hitting ACB on her Catholicism was a HUGE mistake. Latinos are really religious and overwhelmingly Catholic. As the Dems move more and more secular and anti-religion with their progressive wing growing expect Latinos to continue to move to the GOP. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
That's at 61% reporting; it breaks toward Trump at 66%. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:20 Wegandi wrote: Hitting ACB on her Catholicism was a HUGE mistake. Latinos are really religious and overwhelmingly Catholic. As the Dems move more and more secular and anti-religion with their progressive wing growing expect Latinos to continue to move to the GOP. No one hit ACB on her Catholicism. Democrats in the Senate explicitly avoided that because they knew it was a bad strategy. That is a boogeyman made up by conservatives. | ||
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AsariCommando
United States18 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:17 Stratos_speAr wrote: If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved. It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities. Polls are off by more than just a mere "margin of error" this year. I suspect representative polling methods and coronavirus precautions don't mix, along with the standard batch of polling problems in recent decades. | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:17 Stratos_speAr wrote: If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved. It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities. Their polls are shit. All polls with MOE more than 1.5% should be thrown out and almost to a tee they are +4.5% MOE. That invalidates their polls. Almost all elections will fall within those MOE so saying, but...it's within MOE is so dumb. Pollsters heavily outweigh D's compared to R's, but they'll continue to double down with "we're accurate, look at MOE". | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4456 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:20 iamthedave wrote: I knew that the early polling for Biden was suspiciously positive. Everything I'm reading here suggests we're going to have another Trump win soon. Hopefully not though. Can't entirely blame the pollsters, Trump supporters outright lie to them.They hold resposibility for oversamples/undersamples though. Main reasoning for my map i made back in September was just give Trump +4-5% minimum in all swing states lol. https://tl.net/forum/general/532255-us-politics-mega-thread?page=2598#51955 Probably would have Biden winning PA right now though, Trump a chance in NV considering hispanic issues for Biden. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24391 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:20 iamthedave wrote: I knew that the early polling for Biden was suspiciously positive. Everything I'm reading here suggests we're going to have another Trump win soon. Hopefully not though. Biden seems to be slipping in Ohio too now... | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:19 FlaShFTW wrote: Wait who called Texas or yall just think Biden is running out of steam? He's running out of steam. He's not going to get enough votes from the border counties in my opinion. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12583 Posts
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Slaughter
United States20255 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:21 Stratos_speAr wrote: No one hit ACB on her Catholicism. Democrats in the Senate explicitly avoided that because they knew it was a bad strategy. That is a boogeyman made up by conservatives. You know what was weird? I saw ads for ACB. Weird af that they had to run ads to make people swallow and appointment. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24391 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:23 Nebuchad wrote: Ohio should be okay I think It's 2020. Nothing is as it should be | ||
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AsariCommando
United States18 Posts
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StarStruck
25339 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:03 Wegandi wrote: A lot of people are against lockdowns and Dems backed lockdowns hard, plus COVID isn't the end all be all. Maybe the dems are better on COVID, but people are turned off by their economic proposals or foreign policy, etc. You're acting like people are one-issue and they don't calculate dynamically. Plus, we have no idea how people ordinally rank their preferences. get real seriously. no one has fucked up your country more than trump on multilevels and if he wins you're really fucked. | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
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