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On November 04 2020 11:08 KwarK wrote:
NYT tracker in NC is giving some interesting info. Uncounted votes went down from 1.8m to 1.5m. Meanwhile Biden's lead went down from 225k to 150k.
Implies that of the 300k votes most recently counted they went to Trump at a nearly 2:1 ratio.
Also gives Biden a better chance of winning Georgia than NC at this point.
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Popular vote looks close, and I'm guessing it'll look close until California gets factored in.
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welp gap is all but closed in TX looks like. gg there
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No interesting results for House, Senate, or gubernatorial races yet. Blue wave can probably be ruled out, though.
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On November 04 2020 11:03 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 10:43 Starlightsun wrote:On November 04 2020 10:38 Lmui wrote:
Pretty much, the world is looking at the USA and shaking their heads wondering why the fuck this is so close and nailbiting.
It was like this in 2016 too, I was with my coworkers and thinking that there was no way the USA would be dumb enough to elect Trump, but here we are. In 2016 at least he was a political unknown. There was a chance he would at least surround himself with competent people and do a good job despite being a bad person. I truly can't understand how it is close this year though. While people might not like Trump, they don't like what the Dems are offering even more. How is that hard to understand? By the way looks like I will be right about FL with Trump at +3%. How are you feeling on Texas +7% ?
Feeling more like +4%, which for the GOP is worrying. Trump is bad for suburban college educated whites, but much better with minorities. Get someone less polarizing with those voters (who are more traditionally GOP aligned) and continue to make in roads with Blacks and Latinos (which is easily doable as the Dems become more progressive as these voter blocs are really socially conservative/religious, more economically GOP, etc.) then we'll see a shift. So some good for Dems, some bad, some good for GOP, some bad. It "feels" like there is a political shift occurring.
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On November 04 2020 11:08 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA Update: Biden has smashed Lehigh County by 62 points with 98% reporting, Clinton only won this county by 5.
Kornacki suggested this is probably a data entry error
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On November 04 2020 11:08 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA Update: Biden has smashed Lehigh County by 62 points with 98% reporting, Clinton only won this county by 5.
This county had 160k voters in 2016. 340k in 2020. That's.... a lot ? and anormal. The population was 360k in 2019. Expect it to be corrected...
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:13 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:08 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA Update: Biden has smashed Lehigh County by 62 points with 98% reporting, Clinton only won this county by 5. Kornacki suggested this is probably a data entry error
Oh. Rip.
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If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved.
It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities.
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VA is so odd even with NoVo not reporting much yet. Looks like GOP will pick up a lot of VA houses. Excited for Freitas. He's going to be excellent! (Awful Spanberger get the booot)
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Biden in Ohio is only +4% now. I'm going to bed, this is ugly, again.
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On November 04 2020 11:17 plasmidghost wrote:
Yeah, I'm calling Texas for Trump. Maybe next election
Same.
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On November 04 2020 11:17 Stratos_speAr wrote:
If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved.
It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities.
They really really really missed the Hispanic vote
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On November 04 2020 11:16 LegalLord wrote:
There goes Texas. RIP.
wait what? im seeing biden up 1.3%
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On November 04 2020 11:17 Stratos_speAr wrote:
If God forced me to make a prediction now, I would have to say that it looks like Biden is going to get a half-hearted win but that the Democrats will fail to take the Senate, which seems like a pretty terrible scenario for pretty much everyone involved.
It also seems like pollsters are going to have to do another autopsy, as they seem to have gotten a lot wrong so far already. While most seem to be within the margin of error, it seems like it's 2 elections in a row where margin-of-error discrepancies saw a lot of elections go the other way compared to polls, which undermines a lot of confidence in pollsters' abilities.
Failing to take the Senate is going to be so very bad
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United States10569 Posts
Wait who called Texas or yall just think Biden is running out of steam?
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Biden wins Colorado and Hickenlooper flips the CO Senate seat.
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EPT
