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On November 04 2020 11:30 AsariCommando wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic If Trump loses, there is no way he will do the right thing on his way out. We'd have to wait until at least January-February for any stimulus at all. There's also a good chance that he'll try to burn everything down on his way out. Of course, if he wins, then he has no incentive to pass stimulus and we know he doesn't care about people.
Democrats need the Senate to get it passed and I'm not confident that's gonna happen. McConnell will let precisely nothing pass ever.
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On November 04 2020 11:30 AsariCommando wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic If Trump loses, there is no way he will do the right thing on his way out. We'd have to wait until at least January-February for any stimulus at all. There's also a good chance that he'll try to burn everything down on his way out. Of course, if he wins, then he has no incentive to pass stimulus and we know he doesn't care about people.
Trump has always been big on stimulus lol. He's not the impediment to stimulus.
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On November 04 2020 11:29 LegalLord wrote:
Reasonable chance that Pennsylvania will be deciding, which would mean we'll wait several days at least for results.
Biden would have to win something like Arizona at this point to win without PA. Or lose MI or WI to seal the deal for Trump.
Yeah Arizona isn't looking good if Biden's poor performance with Hispanic/Latinx communities continues. It appears they agree with his campaign that they aren't 'part of their path to victory,'
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On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic
Maybe he'll actually get rid of payroll tax like he promised upon reelection!
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On November 04 2020 11:28 AsariCommando wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:03 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 11:00 Starlightsun wrote:On November 04 2020 10:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 10:43 Starlightsun wrote:On November 04 2020 10:38 Lmui wrote:
Pretty much, the world is looking at the USA and shaking their heads wondering why the fuck this is so close and nailbiting.
It was like this in 2016 too, I was with my coworkers and thinking that there was no way the USA would be dumb enough to elect Trump, but here we are. In 2016 at least he was a political unknown. There was a chance he would at least surround himself with competent people and do a good job despite being a bad person. I truly can't understand how it is close this year though. While people might not like Trump, they don't like what the Dems are offering even more. How is that hard to understand? By the way looks like I will be right about FL with Trump at +3%. Doing nothing about covid except making it worse with massive rallies is better than what the Dems are offering? A lot of people are against lockdowns and Dems backed lockdowns hard, plus COVID isn't the end all be all. Maybe the dems are better on COVID, but people are turned off by their economic proposals or foreign policy, etc. You're acting like people are one-issue and they don't calculate dynamically. Plus, we have no idea how people ordinally rank their preferences. I think you're vastly overestimating the "backlash" against lockdowns. Most people want the government and for society to take smart preventative measures. Trump bombed the handling of this, encouraged anti-maskers, admitted to downplaying the virus, got the virus because of his own conspiracy theories, promoted fake drugs (and bleach of all things), and promoted fake doctors who think vaccines are made from alien semen. His closing message in the campaign is that he's going to fire the well respected Dr. Fauci and that the virus is over. I don't think anyone other than cult members, think he's doing well or that this will help him.
From my analysis the only state where this lockdown issue really matters is Nevada, since Vegas is a tourist town and the lockdowns hurt them a lot.Plus it was reasonably close in 2016.If the Hispanic issues hold up for Biden i would predict Trump winning NV, with the lockdown issues maybe giving him an extra couple percent on top.I did give NV to Biden before tonight.
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On November 04 2020 11:32 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:30 AsariCommando wrote:On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic If Trump loses, there is no way he will do the right thing on his way out. We'd have to wait until at least January-February for any stimulus at all. There's also a good chance that he'll try to burn everything down on his way out. Of course, if he wins, then he has no incentive to pass stimulus and we know he doesn't care about people. Trump has always been big on stimulus lol. He's not the impediment to stimulus.
He explicitly refused to work on any stimulus for several weeks.
He flip-flopped on this multiple times this fall.
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Trump was down 364K with 49% in and now he's down around 100K with 60% in, i don't see him losing OH.
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On November 04 2020 11:31 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:28 Oukka wrote:
What's the NC consensus? I'm seeing it at 81% in, so about 500k votes left to count and Biden leads by 100k. Is the rest of it that strong for Trump? 80% and 5m counted = 1.25m more to count.
Shhh... It's 2:30am and it looks like Trump isn't being laughed out of the White House. Excuse my brain for not doing numbers good.
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On November 04 2020 11:28 Oukka wrote:
What's the NC consensus? I'm seeing it at 81% in, so about 500k votes left to count and Biden leads by 100k. Is the rest of it that strong for Trump?
NC is still counting mail in ballots until the 12th as long as they were postmarked by today (NC resident here). Going to be very close.
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On November 04 2020 11:33 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:32 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 11:30 AsariCommando wrote:On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic If Trump loses, there is no way he will do the right thing on his way out. We'd have to wait until at least January-February for any stimulus at all. There's also a good chance that he'll try to burn everything down on his way out. Of course, if he wins, then he has no incentive to pass stimulus and we know he doesn't care about people. Trump has always been big on stimulus lol. He's not the impediment to stimulus. He explicitly refused to work on any stimulus for several weeks. He flip-flopped on this multiple times this fall.
Trump has always advocated for checks to the people. Even more than the 1200$ in the original and has always advocated increases there. He's even said he wanted 2T+. I think the only thing McConnel and Trump agree on with issue to next round of stimulus is no money to bail out the states, especially the badly managed D states (their words, though I tend to agree that the D run States have very bad budgets that shouldn't be bailed out by the Feds).
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On November 04 2020 11:34 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Trump was down 364K with 49% in and now he's down around 100K with 60% in, i don't see him losing OH.
A lot of the outstanding vote is in heavily urban areas, which may make a large difference.
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On November 04 2020 11:35 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:33 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 04 2020 11:32 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 11:30 AsariCommando wrote:On November 04 2020 11:25 Zambrah wrote:
God I'm excited to not have any stimulus for the rest of the pandemic If Trump loses, there is no way he will do the right thing on his way out. We'd have to wait until at least January-February for any stimulus at all. There's also a good chance that he'll try to burn everything down on his way out. Of course, if he wins, then he has no incentive to pass stimulus and we know he doesn't care about people. Trump has always been big on stimulus lol. He's not the impediment to stimulus. He explicitly refused to work on any stimulus for several weeks. He flip-flopped on this multiple times this fall. Trump has always advocated for checks to the people. Even more than the 1200$ in the original and has always advocated increases there. He's even said he wanted 2T+. I think the only thing McConnel and Trump agree on with issue to next round of stimulus is no money to bail out the states, especially the badly managed D states (their words, though I tend to agree that the D run States have very bad budgets that shouldn't be bailed out by the Feds).
Well I mean we could have the red states bail out the red states, and the blue states bail out the blues. That would go wonderfully.
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On November 04 2020 11:35 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 11:32 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 04 2020 11:29 LegalLord wrote:
Reasonable chance that Pennsylvania will be deciding, which would mean we'll wait several days at least for results.
Biden would have to win something like Arizona at this point to win without PA. Or lose MI or WI to seal the deal for Trump. Yeah Arizona isn't looking good if Biden's poor performance with Hispanic/Latinx communities continues. It appears they agree with his campaign that they aren't 'part of their path to victory,' Has Biden done poorly with Hispanics in general or just the Cubans? I have only seen poor with Cubans.
On November 04 2020 10:52 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:28 LegalLord wrote:On November 04 2020 10:18 Stratos_speAr wrote:
EDIT: I think people are taking FL as too much of an indicator of the entire nation. I think we need to see how Ohio, Georgia, and NC go before making real predictions (i.e. close race vs. comfortable). Florida looks a lot less like an outlier and a lot more like a trend. To that point Hispanic vote numbers in Ohio, Georgia, and Florida (not sure their proportions of the electorate in each though).
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On November 04 2020 11:29 plasmidghost wrote:
Biden only leads by 19 in Hidalgo. That's absolutely wild considering that Clinton carried it by 40 in 2016. Looks like all the Dem campaigning in the Rio Grande Valley failed to pay off
people are set on their ways. cannot learn
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Didn't Bidens campaign in March say that they didn't consider Hispanic voters a path to victory? I wonder if thatll bite them in the ass
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EPT
