EPTKind of amazing to see democrats nominate a centrist back to back in a row, chasing the non existent moderate republican.
Michigan has me freaking out the most.
I think Biden still takes Ohio, though.
2020 US Election - Page 42
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
Kind of amazing to see democrats nominate a centrist back to back in a row, chasing the non existent moderate republican. Michigan has me freaking out the most. I think Biden still takes Ohio, though. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:40 Zambrah wrote: Didn't Bidens campaign in March say that they didn't consider Hispanic voters a path to victory? I wonder if thatll bite them in the ass I mean it clearly is for an election night victory. Maybe not an overall victory though | ||
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Sent.
Poland9325 Posts
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Introvert
United States5013 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:38 JimmiC wrote: You can't really do trends like that because certain counties will vote totally differently. Like if it is cities that have reported than Trump will.likely continue to gain, if it is rural than the opposite. Also, well Florida had rules where early votes were counted first others do not, im not sure on Ohio. I believe in ohio election day votes are counted last. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
This is looking like a very good map for Trump right now. Biden's slipping in Ohio and that's one of his few chances at keeping his election odds from not completely collapsing. If he loses Ohio, Pennsylvania is favouring Trump. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46246 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:40 Sent. wrote: uhhh Ohio is red now That wouldn't be surprising tbh. If Trump wins OH, then he has a shot at actually winning the election. It'll likely come down to PA and 1-2 other states. | ||
KwarK
United States44205 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:41 PhoenixVoid wrote: I don't know if pollsters and election modellers will recover from this. This is looking like a 5-6 point miss despite all their pleas that they adjusted their models weighing for education and asserted that the shy Trump supporter and social desirability effect didn't exist, or performed well in the midterms. It appears they didn't catch the significant jump in support for Trump or voting depression for Biden in black and hispanic support, and the overwhelming turnout for Trump. Democrats aren't capturing that midterm energy at all. This is looking like a very good map for Trump right now. Biden's slipping in Ohio and that's one of his few chances at keeping his election odds from not completely collapsing. If he loses Ohio, Pennsylvania is favouring Trump. Models assign probability, they don’t pick winners. You can’t say that the statistical model was wrong just because a coin cane up heads twice in a row. | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4433 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:38 JimmiC wrote: You can't really do trends like that because certain counties will vote totally differently. Like if it is cities that have reported than Trump will.likely continue to gain, if it is rural than the opposite. Also, well Florida had rules where early votes were counted first others do not, im not sure on Ohio. Yeah it seems like in MI they are counting election day votes first but some of these other states i'm not sure on. | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
Four years of this awful administration, Biden who is not 'uniquely hated' like Clinton, a white house that infected itself with a disease just weeks ago, because of their pure cognitive ignorance, yet still we have to calculate pathways to win and Trump is over performing in several places. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:41 PhoenixVoid wrote: I don't know if pollsters and election modellers will recover from this. This is looking like a 5-6 point miss despite all their pleas that they adjusted their models weighing for education and asserted that the shy Trump supporter and social desirability effect didn't exist, or predicted the midterms. It appears they didn't catch the significant jump in support for Trump or voting depression for Biden in black and hispanic support, and the overwhelming turnout for Trump. Democrats aren't capturing that midterm energy at all. This is looking like a very good map for Trump right now. Biden's slipping in Ohio and that's one of his few chances at keeping his election odds from not completely collapsing. If he loses Ohio, Pennsylvania is favouring Trump. The polls should be disgraced, ironically, Trafalgar and the like are once again right. 538 should be totally dumped on by everyone. What a joke these people are. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46246 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:43 Mohdoo wrote: I think if Biden wins, it will be due to AZ and PA. Don't think he has another realistic path That's exactly what I predicted on page 2  | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27236 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:42 KwarK wrote: Models assign probability, they don’t pick winners. You can’t say that the statistical model was wrong just because a coin cane up heads twice in a row. Correct, presumably widespread perception of this will not reflect these realities though. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:42 KwarK wrote: Models assign probability, they don’t pick winners. You can’t say that the statistical model was wrong just because a coin cane up heads twice in a row. More like a die landing on 6 twice in a row, really. Polls were off by too much to simply write it off as "in the margin of error" two elections in a row. | ||
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shawster
Canada2485 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:42 KwarK wrote: Models assign probability, they don’t pick winners. You can’t say that the statistical model was wrong just because a coin cane up heads twice in a row. But the point is that their margins of error are set such that anything outside their margin is "unlikely", whatever their measure of unlikely is. Having that consistently be violated indicates that there is a true underlying bias. | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
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Monochromatic
United States999 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:44 WombaT wrote: Correct, presumably widespread perception of this will not reflect these realities though. This is true, but if the models are wrong for 50 states twice in a row by a significant margin, at what point does it appear that there are underlying flaws? Trump's support among Cuban's is massive, and no one called that. | ||
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