EPT2020 US Election - Page 44
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GreenHorizons
United States23955 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:49 darthfoley wrote: If Biden loses PA we should be terrified. yeah basically, I'm ok until we've lost...then Im very not ok | ||
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vult
United States9400 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:41 Introvert wrote: I believe in ohio election day votes are counted last. No one seems to know, which is a bit strange. The truth is that we aren't going to know the winner until 5 am most likely at the earliest. I'll check back in at midnight but is doing my pulse no good to keep hyper checking the results. The polls definitely seem off, and yes, if Trump does win, it is a bigger deal than the 2016 polls. So far these have all been normal misses, though. It is also very early in the night. The easiest thing to poll, popular vote, was Biden +7 or +8. Right now he is down 2 points: that's 9 points off. Picking Biden was always an all in strategy on the rust belt, really. Sanders was much more popular among hispanics in the sun belt, which is the future democratic path. It is if we see the Midwest flip that there will have been issues : every one of them except PA was well outside the MOE. | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:52 Monochromatic wrote: On the flipside, in Florida, 40% of people said they were better off than 4 years ago. Only 20% said they were worse off. This is despite a massive pandemic. At the end of the day, people care if their life is better. Trump has delivered on that front. Where was this? | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:52 vult wrote: This election turnout is strangely similar to Trump v Clinton. Clinton was strong at the start, but the swing states pulled to Trump towards the very end and clinched it. I'm a bit nervous. I don't know if that's the case. We know so little about the Midwest. The narrative coming from this could very easily be about how the Hispanic vote is breaking for the GOP and Democrats regained moderate white votes. | ||
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Monochromatic
United States998 Posts
New York Times feed on the side of the screen. And I was wrong. It's not 40%, it's 42%. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:49 KwarK wrote: Which is why models like the 538 models gave Trump a serious chance to win, despite the polls, because they know that you can't trust polls blindly. 30-35% chance Trump in 2016? Reasonable chance he wins, that can be in the margin of error. That, followed by the 10% chance Trump has according to 538 in 2020? Less credible that the underlying data is reliable. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:53 Wegandi wrote: GOP flipped a ton of House seats in VA. Everyone is quietly ignoring VA. Yeah, but a lot of the big Dem parts of VA are out. This was the same as 2016 | ||
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AsariCommando
United States18 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26793 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:46 Monochromatic wrote: This is true, but if the models are wrong for 50 states twice in a row by a significant margin, at what point does it appear that there are underlying flaws? Trump's support among Cuban's is massive, and no one called that. To paraphrase George Bush there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns. I’m more interested if any polling org has actually been on the money, if they’re off generally across the board with an org or two that has been close to the pulse, then it’s clearly possible to do. If everyone is off, perhaps there are some data points that just can’t be modelled effectively via current methods of respondence. Be it shy voters, a difficulty in sampling adequately via phone or internet tending to skew towards people overly interested in politics etc etc. If any group tends to be an outlier, and models are adjusted with the data from this election, those may not be pertinent factors next time round either, making any adjustments redundant. | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:54 Monochromatic wrote: New York Times feed on the side of the screen. And I was wrong. It's not 40%, it's 42%. Bread and circuses I guess. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23955 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45922 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:52 Monochromatic wrote: On the flipside, in Florida, 40% of people said they were better off than 4 years ago. Only 20% said they were worse off. This is despite a massive pandemic. At the end of the day, people care if their life is better. Trump has delivered on that front. Except 40% of Floridians are literally wrong. | ||
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
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KwarK
United States43989 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:54 LegalLord wrote: 30-35% chance Trump in 2016? Reasonable chance he wins, that can be in the margin of error. That, followed by the 10% chance Trump has according to 538 in 2020? Less credible that the underlying data is reliable. Are you sure you know what a margin of error is? There isn't a margin of error with something saying 10% Trump, 90% Biden, just as there isn't with them saying 25% HH, 25% TT, 50% 1 heads 1 tails in 4 coinflips. A specific result doesn't imply an erroneous probability. A poll has a margin of error, they say it'll be 52 +-4. That means any result in the 48-56 range is acceptable and anything outside that indicates a fuckup. A probability does not have a margin of error. If they say there's a 10% chance of it happening and it happens then that doesn't indicate a fuckup. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45922 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:57 Mohdoo wrote: When do we know Arizona? I think its GG if Arizona goes to Trump Not if Biden wins PA. | ||
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