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Nebuchad
Switzerland12487 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:02 BigFan wrote: I think Trump takes this. He seems to be performing better than expected in all the important states. Too early to say, WI MI and PA don't mean much without the early voting | ||
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Sent.
Poland9326 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:03 AsariCommando wrote: Only 20% reporting and that's largely not getting into mailed-in ballots yet. Ohhh I see. Thought the perecentage will be much higher since we're already getting results from Utah and Arizona | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: What percent of the votes? Edit: Only 20%? Then no. Yeah, it's too early to say anything about Pennsylvania. Philadelphia County, which is currently sitting at 94-6 Biden only has 9% of votes in. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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shawster
Canada2485 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:58 KwarK wrote: Are you sure you know what a margin of error is? There isn't a margin of error with something saying 10% Trump, 90% Biden, just as there isn't with them saying 25% HH, 25% TT, 50% 1 heads 1 tails in 4 coinflips. A specific result doesn't imply an erroneous probability. A poll has a margin of error, they say it'll be 52 +-4. That means any result in the 48-56 range is acceptable and anything outside that indicates a fuckup. A probability does not have a margin of error. If they say there's a 10% chance of it happening and it happens then that doesn't indicate a fuckup. I think this boils down to your interpretation of MoE. One usually defines a confidence interval using some cut-off, i.e. we believe with 95% certainty between 52 +- 4. At the end of the day, any event is possible in a statistical model it just may be unlikely. Furthermore, 52 +-4 does NOT imply that any value between 48 and 56 is equally likely. The point people are trying to make is that the results either lie outside or consistently to one side of the model's prediction. This is possible, sure, but it is unlikely and it is more likely that the polling methodology has not accounted for some bias. At the end of the day, polling is super hard. The 538 guys talk about the lack of survey response which leads to extreme selection bias which needs to be corrected. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
They just hit 60% reporting with Biden at 55.9%. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10530 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:03 StasisField wrote: There are still plenty of votes in urban areas for Ohio so there is still a chance it goes blue. I'm just nervous. Trump is now ahead in Ohio by 2 points. Erie is almost in already at 88% and Trump actually gained 4 points there. Not sure if Biden's urban gain is enough. | ||
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vult
United States9400 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States14000 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:07 vult wrote: Trump is going to call it before PA can get the absentee votes in, isn't he? oh absolutely | ||
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Apex
United States7227 Posts
One state was expected to have a major blue shift (PA) while the other was expected to have a major red shift (Arizona) due to mail-ins AKA early votes would show a big advantage for the other party, but the party gets reversed by the opposing party's mail-in votes. I'll be watching Pennsylvania with intense interest though it'll take a while for the mail-ins to settle. That's where, if Trump wins, Trump is pumping his fist and the Biden camp is left shaking their heads. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2020 11:58 KwarK wrote: Are you sure you know what a margin of error is? There isn't a margin of error with something saying 10% Trump, 90% Biden, just as there isn't with them saying 25% HH, 25% TT, 50% 1 heads 1 tails in 4 coinflips. A specific result doesn't imply an erroneous probability. Eh, that's a pretty weak argument on semantics. While it's possible for it to be off by that much purely "by chance," getting two results in a row that seem out-of-family is a perfectly good reason to wonder if your underlying assumptions were off. If I had a die that I could only roll twice and both times the result was a 6, that'd be a very good reason to suspect it might not be a fair die. Could just be a 3% random chance, but the odds are against that. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4433 Posts
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Introvert
United States5013 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States14000 Posts
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KwarK
United States44205 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:09 LegalLord wrote: Eh, that's a pretty weak argument on semantics. While it's possible for it to be off by that much purely "by chance," getting two results in a row that seem out-of-family is a perfectly good reason to wonder if your underlying assumptions were off. If I had a die that I could only roll twice and both times the result was a 6, that'd be a very good reason to suspect it might not be a fair die. Could just be a 3% random chance, but the odds are against that. 18% chance, given that you would conclude that it was a rigged die on any result obtained twice, not just 6 twice. Which is the point. 18% of the time you're claiming you have a rigged die when it's far more likely that it's the 1/6 chance that it just happened than someone rigged your die. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:09 LegalLord wrote: Eh, that's a pretty weak argument on semantics. While it's possible for it to be off by that much purely "by chance," getting two results in a row that seem out-of-family is a perfectly good reason to wonder if your underlying assumptions were off. If I had a die that I could only roll twice and both times the result was a 6, that'd be a very good reason to suspect it might not be a fair die. Could just be a 3% random chance, but the odds are against that. Two 6's in a row is a 1 in 36 chance. As a person who plays several hobbies that roll large amounts of D6's, you would be amazed how many times I see utterly ridiculous rolls, e.g. rolling snake eyes twice in a row, or rolling three 20's on 3D20, or rolling five 1's out of five D6's. These things do happen. | ||
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Shingi11
290 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:11 Shingi11 wrote: Arizona chunk just came in, looks good for biden. Arizona pretty much come downs to maracopa and biden has a big lead there. This. Arizona actually looks like it can break for Biden, which would drastically change the narrative. | ||
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