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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:16 Stratos_speAr wrote: Dems just flipped a house seat in Missouri with a notably progressive candidate. I'm happy libertarian Nick Freitas walloped Spanberger in VA. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Shingi11
290 Posts
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vult
United States9400 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:22 LegalLord wrote: Lol, Virginia is up to 54% reporting and Trump still has a (shrinking, but sizeable) lead in a state that Biden is marked as the winner in. The numbers in Rhode Island are also confusing. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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Husyelt
United States837 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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BlueBird.
United States3890 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:25 Husyelt wrote: If Trump wins tomorrow, I will not be going to work. Portland where I live, will be Riotstormfest 200020. Gonna walk to work just like normal. Nobody going to shoot you lol. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:24 Mohdoo wrote: Question, why are polls not accurate? I seriously think this question doesn’t get enough credit That question has been asked a lot. We also don't actually know what polls have specifically been inaccurate. Most people have been making extremely hyperbolic claims based on models all giving Biden a roughly 90% chance to win and think that all the polls showed the same thing. We need to see how most states actually turn out before just saying that all polls failed. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:26 Batmankills wrote: remember , final NYT winsconsin poll had biden leading by 17 points. Right now, Trump is 51% there with 33% votes in. Several Wisconsin metro areas will be reporting their votes very late. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32747 Posts
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Monochromatic
United States998 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:20 KwarK wrote: I think you're confused. Let's say you work on a farm. In year 1 the farm produces 100 units of grain. In year 2 the farm produces 102 grain. That's 2% growth in the output of the farm. What you're trying to argue is that how much grain the farm produces isn't what matters, what actually matters is how much a speculator would pay to buy the farm. But there's two issues with that. Firstly, you don't own the farm, you just work there, it doesn't make any difference to you how much the speculator thinks it's worth on a given day. And secondly, the only thing that matters at the farm is how much food it produces. An idea of how much it's worth will go up and down daily but will never feed a single person. If the farm is publicly traded, I can own it. With the rise of indexing the average person will probably own it in their 401k. Second, valuation is not purely speculation. Oftentimes there's competitive advantages that push a company above their peers. It's also a proxy to sentiment - the average investor agrees the USA is doing very, very well right now. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10884 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:24 Mohdoo wrote: Question, why are polls not accurate? I seriously think this question doesn’t get enough credit As the wise sage Joe Rogan sais: "Only morons answer polls." | ||
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vult
United States9400 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:24 Nevuk wrote: https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1323820689598615553 300k is <10% of the vote, so if Trump has a lead of 250k or more at ~80%, it wont really matter. | ||
KwarK
United States43989 Posts
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shawster
Canada2485 Posts
On November 04 2020 12:24 Mohdoo wrote: Question, why are polls not accurate? I seriously think this question doesn’t get enough credit There's a whooole lot of reasons. I would recommend you look up some of the articles people have written after the 2016 election for example. I think the number one reason is that for any sort of statistical model, you want a uniform sampling across demographics with a [i]large[/i sample size. However, polls have a super lacklustre response rate among the general population. Therefore, for people who answer polls, there is a strong selection bias already inherent. The goal of pollsters is to get rid of this bias with some model, but this is super hard. Some republicans have put forward the "silent" Trump supporter theory -- that Trump supporters hesitate to say they support Trump out loud in fear of backlash but vote for him "silently". Some people argue that this is just a hypothesis and carries no weight, I personally do not know. Certain demographics can be hard to reach, etc etc etc. Tons of reasons. | ||
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