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On November 04 2020 09:55 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:53 Mohdoo wrote:On November 04 2020 09:49 Stratos_speAr wrote:From 538: In four Indiana counties that the NYT says are more than 98 percent reported — Wabash, Cass, Martin and Wells — Trump is winning, but by considerably smaller margins than in 2016. So it’s hard to tell if any polling overperformance in Florida would translate to the Midwest. I think that Trump's gains with Florida Latinos will be extremely unique and that we can't really use them to extrapolate to the rest of the country. Lots of Hispanics are Catholic. Non-Mexico countries are racist towards Mexicans. Republicans will gain with Hispanics for as long as they can keep abortion an issue. Think a lot of people don't understand how conservative most Hispanics are and just focus on immigration. Legal Mexican immigrants strongly resent illegal Mexican immigrants. And since the other countries just are racist in general towards Mexico, Democrats screaming about immigrants and abortion is a losing strategy. Indeed. Republicans can make huge gains with Latino voters if they weren't so stupid. I think they'll eventually learn. It's also why I don't believe in the deterministic demographic joo joo Democrats are always talking about (just wait til old white people die!). PS: Also why attacks on ACB Catholicism was so dumb for Democrats to do.
Black voters in the south are so primed to be Republican if they weren't so over the top racist.
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Watching primarily PA, WI, MI. Those three are the absolute minimum of swing or swing-like states Biden would have to win to take win overall. No meaningful results from any of them yet, though.
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lol with 81% reporting, Florida has them separated by double digit votes...
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On November 04 2020 09:57 Stratos_speAr wrote:
If Biden wins any of:
NC, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Iowa
Then I think that Democrats can feel pretty comfortable.
He can still win and lose all of those states, but it would be much more nerve-wracking for Dems.
PA too.
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On November 04 2020 09:56 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:54 Cricketer12 wrote:
Toledo is still not in...but with colombus cincy and cleveland in how are yall feeling about Ohio Right now it looks good for Joe but so far the polls have been consistent: Biden grabs a nice lead compared to 2016, Trump chips away as the in perosn votes come in. Hard to say. Biden has gotten great leads though.
I wouldn't really put a lot of stock on any partial results, seems like it's better to compare counties with 100% of the vote in compared to the 2016 margins to get a good idea, though that also depends on the demographics of the state. With Ohio being much less Hispanic-based I would imagine Ohio would be more likely to fit him if Cuban voters were the issue in FL.
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Florida going red is not a fun start. A huge cry emerges from Europe as they can't go to sleep relaxed.
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On November 04 2020 09:57 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:55 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 09:53 Mohdoo wrote:On November 04 2020 09:49 Stratos_speAr wrote:From 538: In four Indiana counties that the NYT says are more than 98 percent reported — Wabash, Cass, Martin and Wells — Trump is winning, but by considerably smaller margins than in 2016. So it’s hard to tell if any polling overperformance in Florida would translate to the Midwest. I think that Trump's gains with Florida Latinos will be extremely unique and that we can't really use them to extrapolate to the rest of the country. Lots of Hispanics are Catholic. Non-Mexico countries are racist towards Mexicans. Republicans will gain with Hispanics for as long as they can keep abortion an issue. Think a lot of people don't understand how conservative most Hispanics are and just focus on immigration. Legal Mexican immigrants strongly resent illegal Mexican immigrants. And since the other countries just are racist in general towards Mexico, Democrats screaming about immigrants and abortion is a losing strategy. Indeed. Republicans can make huge gains with Latino voters if they weren't so stupid. I think they'll eventually learn. It's also why I don't believe in the deterministic demographic joo joo Democrats are always talking about (just wait til old white people die!). PS: Also why attacks on ACB Catholicism was so dumb for Democrats to do. Black voters in the south are so primed to be Republican if they weren't so over the top racist.
If the GOP were more Rand Paul like they would make huge in-roads into the minority votes. They just gotta move on criminal justice, civil liberties, etc. and it isn't even like it is so antithetical to the GOP historically. (Lincoln, compare Calvin Coolidge to Woodrow Wilson, Eisenhower, even Reagan besides the Drug War wasn't too bad especially on immigration)
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On November 04 2020 09:57 Cricketer12 wrote:
Trumps taking GA by 8 points currently
New update has Biden ahead.
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Judging by how Kentucky had 5 blue counties about an hour ago and now only one of those is still blue (Fayette) I'd say they're counting early votes first there.
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On November 04 2020 10:00 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Florida going red is not a fun start. A huge cry emerges from Europe as they can't go to sleep relaxed.
We're in for a long night one way or another. Good time to grab some popcorn.
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All of the non-competitive states are being called now.
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Trump up 140,000 in VA 58-40.1% but already called for Biden, can't agree with that.
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Lindsay Graham said to have defeated Jaime Harrison in the SC Senate race.
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With a whopping 5% of the vote in Trump leads Texas by 0.2%
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VA and OH switch imho. I don't think Trump is winning VA and don't think Biden wins OH, but damn man if Trump wins VA and Biden wins OH I don't even know what to think lol.
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On November 04 2020 10:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Trump up 140,000 in VA 58-40.1% but already called for Biden, can't agree with that.
It's Virginia. If Trump ends up winning Virginia something is massively wrong
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Texas blue at 10% reporting.
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On November 04 2020 10:03 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Lindsay Graham said to have defeated Jaime Harrison in the SC Senate race.
How much money did Democrats spend on Harrison in SC and McGrath in Kentucky?
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On November 04 2020 10:03 Wegandi wrote:
VA and OH switch imho. I don't think Trump is winning VA and don't think Biden wins OH, but damn man if Trump wins VA and Biden wins OH I don't even know what to think lol.
Both states haven't reported enough votes for the current counts to be meaningful. Trump winning OH and Biden winning VA are still better predictions at this point.
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EPT
