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United States43979 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:19 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Pinellas, Florida has apparently gone Blue. Supposed bellwether of the state. My buddy from St. Petersburg tells me he saw this coming, but he's full of shit so what the hell lol Russian interference strikes again? /s
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On November 04 2020 09:16 StasisField wrote:With Biden leading 51.7% to 47.6% as well. Biden 54% / Trump 45% with 84% counted in Miami-Dade compared to 63.7% Clinton / 34.1% Trump in 2016 Trump should win Florida but Biden is looking better in some of the other counties in other states so far (outperforming). Still need clarification as to whether they're counting the early votes first.
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On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote: If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes? That's basically the time-honored bellwether of which way the election goes, yes.
At this point, Biden's lead in Florida looks so-so at best though. Some counties more in his favor than for Clinton in '16, others the opposite.
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United States10398 Posts
I'm not even gonna try to interpret Florida results. Biden has some good and bad news. Bad news: Miami-Dade is well behind the Clinton numbers. Good news: some other random counties are ahead of the Clinton numbers. What the fuck is happening.
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Miami Dade doesn't look good for Biden.
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On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote: If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes?
Correct.
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NYT Needles currently think that Trump will win Florida but Biden will win Georgia and NC.
If Biden wins either of those 2 states, he still has an extremely strong chance of winning even without Florida.
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United States10398 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:20 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:16 StasisField wrote:On November 04 2020 09:15 Stratos_speAr wrote: Florida at 43% reporting now. With Biden leading 51.7% to 47.6% as well. Biden 54% / Trump 45% with 84% counted in Miami-Dade compared to 63.7% Clinton / 34.1% Trump in 2016 Trump should win Florida but Biden is looking better in some of the other counties in other states so far (outperforming). Still need clarification as to whether they're counting the early votes first. Phinellas in 2016: 48-47 Trump won. 2020 with 80% reporting: 52-46.7 for Biden. Duval in 2016: 48.5-47 Trump won. 2020 with 75% reporting: 53.9-44.7 Biden.
This state makes no fucking sense and I hate it.
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What about Pasco county, I used to live there and am invested slightly.
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On November 04 2020 09:21 FlaShFTW wrote: I'm not even gonna try to interpret Florida results. Biden has some good and bad news. Bad news: Miami-Dade is well behind the Clinton numbers. Good news: some other random counties are ahead of the Clinton numbers. What the fuck is happening.
Likely going to be unexpectedly strong support for Trump from Latinx people and a small but notable improvement with Black men (compared to other Republicans).
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On November 04 2020 09:23 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT Needles currently think that Trump will win Florida but Biden will win Georgia and NC.
If Biden wins either of those 2 states, he still has an extremely strong chance of winning even without Florida.
If Biden wins GA and NC, then he doesn't even need PA lol.
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On November 04 2020 09:17 GreenHorizons wrote: That's bad for Biden in Miami-Dade.
Republicans really should be slam dunk with Latino votes, but they're so bad at messaging. Latinos are overwhelmingly religious, socially conservative, family-oriented, lean GOP economically, etc., but they're just so antagonistic to them it always made no sense to me. It's the biggest bloc of minority voters that the GOP can absolutely improve on with the right messaging.
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Florida is always a shit show when it comes to reporting voting results, so I've honestly never really thought it worthwhile to worry about. Even if it's the tipping point, unless it's a nail biter we'll know the results of all the other swing states first usually.
I'm in full favor of stripping them of their right to count votes based on how awful they've done at it for at least 24 years now (only somewhat joking here).
btw, Miami Dade are the early voting results.
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From NYT blog:
MARGIN EST. VOTES REPORTED Fla. › Trump +1.3 45% Ga. › Biden +12 3% Pa. › Biden +14 <1%
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not liking what I'm seeing in Florida, but that's literally nothing new
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your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:25 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: From NYT blog:
MARGIN EST. VOTES REPORTED Fla. › Trump +1.3 45% Ga. › Biden +12 3% Pa. › Biden +14 <1%
I wouldn't put any faith in the GA/PA results with that few votes in. Heck, PA literally has 77 votes.
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On November 04 2020 09:23 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT Needles currently think that Trump will win Florida but Biden will win Georgia and NC.
If Biden wins either of those 2 states, he still has an extremely strong chance of winning even without Florida.
If Biden carries Georgia, and NC. He doesn't need Florida.
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On November 04 2020 09:26 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:25 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: From NYT blog:
MARGIN EST. VOTES REPORTED Fla. › Trump +1.3 45% Ga. › Biden +12 3% Pa. › Biden +14 <1%
I wouldn't put any faith in the GA/PA results with that few votes in. Heck, PA literally has 77 votes. No faith until tomorrow. Just posting what I'm seeing. Sorry sir. I'll go back to my cave.
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538 contributor notes that these demographic shifts in FL have been anticipated by the polls, so other counties could make up for Biden's losses in Miami-Dade, although I'm a bit skeptical. His lead is shrinking in FL.
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On November 04 2020 09:23 Zambrah wrote: What about Pasco county, I used to live there and am invested slightly.
I live in Pasco. Pasco is heavily Trump territory.
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