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farvacola
United States18869 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:03 ShoCkeyy wrote: If that's the difference maker, a lot of cubans I know are for trump. Yeah, those that I know are the same, I think that's what keeps Florida for Trump in the end. | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:04 Stratos_speAr wrote: It's normal. It's based on which vote totals have been reported (their demographics, which areas are left to tally still, etc.). There's an actual method to it, but I'm not that good at explaining it. Is astrology involved? | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:04 Stratos_speAr wrote: It's normal. It's based on which vote totals have been reported (their demographics, which areas are left to tally still, etc.). There's an actual method to it, but I'm not that good at explaining it. So, just for me to understand - with, lets say, 16 out of 100 votes counted, there's no way that the outcome could change? I honestly seem to be missing something essential here (very possible), but for some random foreigner who's following the election, that seems awfully weird. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote: I got surprised by that too. 16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird. It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that. The news networks calling them don't really matter anyways, the secretary of state has to affirm the results, but that happens days or weeks later so there is a drive to get it earlier. On November 04 2020 09:04 PhoenixVoid wrote: Hmm, I've heard Indiana being called immediately for Trump is a bad sign for Biden. It would mean he didn't do as well in the suburbs and rural areas as thought. Governor's race was called, not presidential one | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10569 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote: It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that. The news networks calling them don't really matter anyways, the secretary of state has to affirm the results, but that happens days or weeks later so there is a drive to get it earlier. The method by which states are called by news organizations is actually pretty robust. 538 did an analysis on how it's done, and several other news outlets have as well. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46517 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:04 Stratos_speAr wrote: It's normal. It's based on which vote totals have been reported (their demographics, which areas are left to tally still, etc.). There's an actual method to it, but I'm not that good at explaining it. It's basically that. Some parts of a state are so obviously going to be tilting towards one candidate, that if they manage to persist through the swing counties/cities, they're basically guaranteed the win. In the same way that we really don't need to see California or any other deep blue/red states (we really just care about the swing/leaning states), the same can be said on a micro-level within a single state. In many cases, a swing state can be decided by a few counties, rather than needing to see the entire voting map of the state, just like how the general election can be decided by a few states, rather than needing to see the entire voting map of the country. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote: It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that. Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway. Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:07 FlaShFTW wrote: Have... have yall never watched a single election coverage night before? If anything, the fact that Indiana only just now got called is great. Trump had Indiana called instantly in 2016. I'm surprised Virginia hasn't been called for Biden yet. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:05 farvacola wrote: Yeah, those that I know are the same, I think that's what keeps Florida for Trump in the end. It's quite sad that those Cubans who never took time to learn their actual history are doomed to repeating it. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if Trump tries to sell South FL to Cuba lol if he wins reelection. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote: Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway. Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that. If Biden is down 54-46 after counting urban Kentucky areas, then it's easy to call the race because rural areas heavily favor Trump. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:09 ShoCkeyy wrote: It's quite sad that those Cubans who never took time to learn their actual history are doomed to repeating it. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if Trump tries to sell South FL to Cuba lol if he wins reelection. IDK, I think it might be more likely that he tries to buy Cuba. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32755 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:08 The_Templar wrote: I'm surprised Virginia hasn't been called for Biden yet. Apparently Fox called Virginia for Biden? That would be a good sign for Biden because Clinton got Virginia called for her very late. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:10 PhoenixVoid wrote: Apparently Fox called Virginia for Biden? That would be a good sign for Biden because Clinton got Virginia called for her very late. Maybe? I've only been checking the NYT graphic. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
Apparently a lot of networks are doing it differently for this election. | ||
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ggrrg
Bulgaria2717 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/5H8RlON.png) NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^ | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote: Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway. Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that. Indiana has a stupid lead supposedly, bigger than Kentucky, and it hasn't been called. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
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