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On November 04 2020 08:38 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 08:36 farvacola wrote:
Nah, a lot of Trump states will start blue out of the gates because of the initial flood of urban voting collections, all of which trend blue basically everywhere in the US. As the rural areas start being counted, the numbers shift. Indiana has not had a single urban place have votes come in just yet. It really just comes down to who displays results first. I remember when the votes were coming out early in 2016, Mississippi was blue at some point. These early results don't matter until a better representation for the state as a whole come out. This is why county-by-county analysis is much better. A state can have 10% reporting but a couple counties can be already at 70-80% reporting and give you good accurate stats to compare to last election or go off.
Indeed, outlets like CNN will try to get leads on swings in the numbers based on reporting done on which counties are finalizing results when, it's one of the only legitimate services they can lay claim to.
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 08:41 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 08:38 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 04 2020 08:36 farvacola wrote:
Nah, a lot of Trump states will start blue out of the gates because of the initial flood of urban voting collections, all of which trend blue basically everywhere in the US. As the rural areas start being counted, the numbers shift. Indiana has not had a single urban place have votes come in just yet. It really just comes down to who displays results first. I remember when the votes were coming out early in 2016, Mississippi was blue at some point. These early results don't matter until a better representation for the state as a whole come out. This is why county-by-county analysis is much better. A state can have 10% reporting but a couple counties can be already at 70-80% reporting and give you good accurate stats to compare to last election or go off. Indeed, outlets like CNN will try to get leads on swings in the numbers based on reporting done on which counties are finalizing results when, it's one of the only legitimate services they can lay claim to.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/pRtqB7Z.png)
This was the only map I gave a damn about in 2016. This should be the same map you want to pay attention to in this election.
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Come on guys, Kentucky or Indiana aren't turning blue statewide. But what I am looking at is:
"Biden carrying Fayette County, KY (Lexington) by almost 3:1, with what @DecisionDeskHQ estimates is a bit over half in. This would be better than what Andy Beshear got there (65%)." [1]
and
"Elliott County, KY, voted Democratic in every presidential election 1872-2012. It voted for Trump by 44 points in 2016 and he's leading there again by 33 points so far tonight." [2]
These district levels are starting to show some trouble for Trump if they hold once you extrapolate them as a general urban-suburban-rural matter. Around 10 point gains start to accumulate.
Another Kentucky one, with a 7 point swing to Biden in a rural area.
"Nicholas County, KY -- small Appalachian county that Gov. Andy Beshear (D) carried by 1% last year.
77% of the vote is in, and Trump is winning it 66%-33% -- it was 69%-28% for him in 2016. So would be about a 7% swing to Biden." [3]
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 08:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:Come on guys, Kentucky or Indiana aren't turning blue statewide. But what I am looking at is: "Biden carrying Fayette County, KY (Lexington) by almost 3:1, with what @DecisionDeskHQ estimates is a bit over half in. This would be better than what Andy Beshear got there (65%)." [ 1] and "Elliott County, KY, voted Democratic in every presidential election 1872-2012. It voted for Trump by 44 points in 2016 and he's leading there again by 33 points so far tonight." [ 2] These district levels are starting to show some trouble for Trump if they hold once you extrapolate them as a general urban-suburban-rural matter. Around 10 point gains start to accumulate.
Exactly the same that I'm seeing. Kentucky is not turning blue, y'all are getting a little too antsy. But the gains we're seeing are very good for Biden.
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On November 04 2020 08:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
Ok this is big. About 50% in a lot of these red rural counties reporting from Indiana: almost all of them have Trump under 70% right now and down a few points from this 2016 position.
Dekalb county: 2016 Trump 71-23. As of now: 68-30
Steuben: 2016: 70-26. Currently: 61-37.5
And the results look similar across the other counties as well. Biden clearly has drawn votes from 3rd party (the gain doesn't match the loss) and that could be great news for Biden.
yeah Ft Wayne and the surrounding rural is 65 -35
Im not saying Indy will flip, but this may end up having huge implications for Biden
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United States10569 Posts
Fayette County: Biden has already reached almost Clinton's vote count from 2016, with 51% reporting Biden has 61k vote, Clinton finished with 70k votes. MASSIVE. Biden leading 73-25.
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Biden seems to be dominating Northern Kentucky. Bizarre. Has to me mail in votes.
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Yea I saw that currently at 10% reporting Mcconell is losing in Kentucky and got excited for a second....really want him out of Congress.
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Yea, if Kentucky turned blue, it would be a loss so catastrophic that the Republican party might legitimately cease to exist. It would be a sign that several other red states would turn blue, and Biden might approach 500 EC votes in that scenario.
It just ain't gonna happen. Kentucky is a deep red state nationally.
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United States44382 Posts
Hopefully actively feuding with the pandemic response team during an actual pandemic turns out to be electorally damaging. Shitting on war heroes, bragging about sexual assault, promising to kill civilians, and showing a complete disregard for the truth never were but we can hope.
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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia
Something to keep in mind: Per TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, almost 30% of early votes were cast by people who didn’t cast a ballot in the 2016 election.
NH has started to report. 15 minutes to an hour before the "important" states start reporting.
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I got a phone number for the first time is nearly a year and all day I have been inundated with people texting at me to vote, I don't know if the person who had this number before me was just super politically active or if this election is just that intense but I get more texts telling me to vote per hour than I got over like, nearly a decade
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United States10569 Posts
Another 10% reporting came in from Boone, up to 80% reporting now. still holding at 57-41. If this translates around the country, Florida and NC are definitely going to the Biden camp.
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On November 04 2020 08:48 Zambrah wrote:
I got a phone number for the first time is nearly a year and all day I have been inundated with people texting at me to vote, I don't know if the person who had this number before me was just super politically active or if this election is just that intense but I get more texts telling me to vote per hour than I got over like, nearly a decade
I got an insane amount of nagging to vote from almost every possible way you can nag from all sorts of places.
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On November 04 2020 08:49 FlaShFTW wrote:
Another 10% reporting came in from Boone, up to 80% reporting now. still holding at 57-41. If this translates around the country, Florida and NC are definitely going to the Biden camp.
Florida would be huge...I'm still not sure if he's got Penn though and that has me worried
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 08:51 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 08:49 FlaShFTW wrote:
Another 10% reporting came in from Boone, up to 80% reporting now. still holding at 57-41. If this translates around the country, Florida and NC are definitely going to the Biden camp. Florida would be huge...I'm still not sure if he's got Penn though and that has me worried
If anything this shows more correlation with Penn since the rural penn counties are more close to Indiana than Florida. Good opportunity for Biden to shut the door on Trump in PA.
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KY is going to be reporting its mail in and early votes earlier than in person. I'm from the Fayette county region and it's not much of a surprise. Hillary was extremely hated there, mostly due to sexism, imo. The hatred of her in the eastern part of the state was the coal comments.
It used to be a very democratic state, but it is almost certainly not turning blue. It's the opposite of the traditional "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" in how it likes its democratic politicians (which is what makes it highly ironic that they elected Rand Paul).
These results are much more in line with what should normally be expected from them: a middle of the pack R leaning state rather than one of the most deep red states in the nation.
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I'm being cautioned to not read too much into these leads, even if most of the vote is counted. There's the early vote advantage that might shrink once the in-person Republican votes start pouring in.
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Broward is +28 now for EDV
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your Country52798 Posts
Kentucky being blue at this point is a great example of why we shouldn't put stock into early results at the state level. At the county level, sure I guess.
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EPT
