Ok this is big. About 50% in a lot of these red rural counties reporting from Indiana: almost all of them have Trump under 70% right now and down a few points from this 2016 position.

Dekalb county: 2016 Trump 71-23. As of now: 68-30
Steuben: 2016: 70-26. Currently: 61-37.5

And the results look similar across the other counties as well. Biden clearly has drawn votes from 3rd party (the gain doesn't match the loss) and that could be great news for Biden.

farvacola

United States18869 Posts

November 03 2020 23:26 GMT

#342

On November 04 2020 08:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
Ok this is big. About 50% in a lot of these red rural counties reporting from Indiana: almost all of them have Trump under 70% right now and down a few points from this 2016 position.

Dekalb county: 2016 Trump 71-23. As of now: 68-30
Steuben: 2016: 70-26. Currently: 61-37.5

And the results look similar across the other counties as well. Biden clearly has drawn votes from 3rd party (the gain doesn't match the loss) and that could be great news for Biden.

This is what I want to see, keep it coming.

Luolis

Finland7196 Posts

November 03 2020 23:28 GMT

#343

On November 04 2020 08:21 schaf wrote:

Show nested quote +

To paraphrase Danglars: why? If you can't be bothered to show up in time and take into account the line, you don't deserve it.

/s

I would guess because America has a lot of people and more votes = better.

FlaShFTW

United States10569 Posts

November 03 2020 23:30 GMT

#344

Knox County: 2016 Trump won 71.5-24.3. Currently with 47% reporting: 64.3-34.3. Again, another dip for Trump, another big gain from Biden.

3rd party in Indiana was strong, votes for Johnson in 2016 ranged from 3-6% in some counties. I have yet to see Jojo be able 2% so far. She is hoving around 1.5% in most counties. That could translate to a gain of +4 for Biden from 3rd parties that did not vote for either party in 2016 and moved for Biden in 2020.

Deleted User 173346

16169 Posts

November 03 2020 23:31 GMT

#345

--- Nuked ---

iamthedave

England2814 Posts

November 03 2020 23:31 GMT

#346

So far the only reporting is on states Trump's won though?

GreenHorizons

United States24389 Posts

November 03 2020 23:33 GMT

#347

North Carolina result reporting will be delayed slightly in order for all polling stations to have been open the same amount of time.

polgas

Canada1791 Posts

November 03 2020 23:34 GMT

#348

Kentucky turning blue?

FlaShFTW

United States10569 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#349

On November 04 2020 08:31 iamthedave wrote:
So far the only reporting is on states Trump's won though?

Yes. Indiana and Kentucky are the first states to close their polling. All we have are these states and this is the only information I can draw on so far. But when I called 2016 early in the night for Trump last time I was watching, I was noticing some huge gains from Trump in a ton of formerly blue districts. If the trend here is that the vote is shifting back to Biden in a lot of these early counties, chances are the same thing will happen in similarly represented counties in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, even Ohio. Does it mean Biden is going to win in Ohio? Who knows for now, but he's certainly going to make a run at it.

iPlaY.NettleS

Australia4456 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#350

Are early votes counted at same time as on the day votes , beforehand, after or does this vary by state?

FueledUpAndReadyToGo

Netherlands30548 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#351

Kentucky is blue on the politico map atm, it's over

FlaShFTW

United States10569 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#352

On November 04 2020 08:34 polgas wrote:
[image loading]

Kentucky turning blue?

My guy its 8% reporting.

Liquid`Drone

Norway28910 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#353

thoughts and prayers..

Zambrah

United States7393 Posts

November 03 2020 23:35 GMT

#354

That seems unlikely, but I'll be pretty wowed if true

farvacola

United States18869 Posts

November 03 2020 23:36 GMT

#355

Nah, a lot of Trump states will start blue out of the gates because of the initial flood of urban voting collections, all of which trend blue basically everywhere in the US. As the rural areas start being counted, the numbers shift.

LightningStrike

United States14277 Posts

November 03 2020 23:38 GMT

#356

I doubt Kentucky is turning blue but would be a big shock if Kentucky turns blue but it just 8% of expected votes atm so it's something to watch out for.

FlaShFTW

United States10569 Posts

November 03 2020 23:38 GMT

#357

On November 04 2020 08:36 farvacola wrote:
Nah, a lot of Trump states will start blue out of the gates because of the initial flood of urban voting collections, all of which trend blue basically everywhere in the US. As the rural areas start being counted, the numbers shift.

Indiana has not had a single urban place have votes come in just yet. It really just comes down to who displays results first. I remember when the votes were coming out early in 2016, Mississippi was blue at some point. These early results don't matter until a better representation for the state as a whole come out. This is why county-by-county analysis is much better. A state can have 10% reporting but a couple counties can be already at 70-80% reporting and give you good accurate stats to compare to last election or go off.

ShoCkeyy

7815 Posts

November 03 2020 23:39 GMT

#358

I came to report the same thing, Kentucky going blue would be a huge shift, and I hope they do.

Liquid`Drone

Norway28910 Posts

November 03 2020 23:40 GMT

#359

While I am increasingly optimistic towards a blue wave happening, kentucky moving from 62%-33% to a democrat win is not in the realm of possibility. At least I don't see it as one.

FlaShFTW

United States10569 Posts

November 03 2020 23:40 GMT

#360

Boone County 2016: 60-31 Trump. Currently 70% reporting: 57-41. Biden gaining 10 points here again. He's averaging about a 7-10 point gain in a ton of counties right now.