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your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:11 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote:On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent. With 12% reporting in? I don't get it. I got surprised by that too. 16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird. It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that. Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway. Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that. Indiana has a stupid lead supposedly, bigger than Kentucky, and it hasn't been called. Neither state is currently reflecting the lead that trump will end up with, and I believe that the more favorable mail-in votes for Biden were already counted in Kentucky (hence why he was ahead).
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On November 04 2020 09:07 FlaShFTW wrote: Have... have yall never watched a single election coverage night before? If anything, the fact that Indiana only just now got called is great. Trump had Indiana called instantly in 2016.
On November 04 2020 09:10 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:08 The_Templar wrote:On November 04 2020 09:07 FlaShFTW wrote: Have... have yall never watched a single election coverage night before? If anything, the fact that Indiana only just now got called is great. Trump had Indiana called instantly in 2016. I'm surprised Virginia hasn't been called for Biden yet. Apparently Fox called Virginia for Biden? That would be a good sign for Biden because Clinton got Virginia called for her very late.
While I think there's some value to extrapolating the timing of these states being called, in comparison to 2016, I don't know how predictive it will be for the actual swing states. I still think we have an hour before learning anything truly significant about the states that will actually decide the election.
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Florida will supposedly report a massive chunk of their vote in the next 15 minutes, which could pretty much decide the election right then and there.
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On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol: ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/5H8RlON.png) NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^
That's hilarious, although to be fair, more than half of the 50 states could be called even before Election Day lol
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your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol: ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/5H8RlON.png) NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^ That's hilarious, although to be fair, more than half of the 50 states could be called even before Election Day lol Biden is going to somehow win Wyoming to prove this wrong.
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United States43979 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:06 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:04 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent. With 12% reporting in? I don't get it. I got surprised by that too. 16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird. It's normal. It's based on which vote totals have been reported (their demographics, which areas are left to tally still, etc.). There's an actual method to it, but I'm not that good at explaining it. So, just for me to understand - with, lets say, 16 out of 100 votes counted, there's no way that the outcome could change? I honestly seem to be missing something essential here (very possible), but for some random foreigner who's following the election, that seems awfully weird. Let’s say we’re playing a bo100 chess series and I win the first 16 games easily. It’s pretty clear how the series is going by that point.
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Florida at 43% reporting now.
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On November 04 2020 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote: Doesn't seem that cautious at all at the moment. Which one? NYT or ABC? ABC still hasn't called any presidential races, just congressional ones.
NYT I was basing it off this quote:
Dean Baquet explains our ‘extraordinarily cautious’ election night approach on The Daily.
But yeah, not as cautious as the major networks... who got burned bad by 2000.
KY also counts votes very fast, which I think sets it apart from IN.
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On November 04 2020 09:15 Stratos_speAr wrote: Florida at 43% reporting now. With Biden leading 51.7% to 47.6% as well.
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Florida and GA currently blue on the politico map!
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That's bad for Biden in Miami-Dade.
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On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol: ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/5H8RlON.png) NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^
It signifies that Biden's lead was so great from the data they have that there was no doubt he'd win the state.
As Flash pointed out earlier, in 2016 they did that with Indiana. This time they had to wait 16% to do that in Indiana. This shows that Trump's lead is less severe than it was then, or that Biden's lead is in Vermont.
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If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes?
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Pinellas, Florida has apparently gone Blue. Supposed bellwether of the state.
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On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent.
And NBC called Indiana for Trump. Fuck dude...Holcomb is a goddamn coward
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On November 04 2020 09:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Pinellas, Florida has apparently gone Blue. Supposed bellwether of the state. My buddy from St. Petersburg tells me he saw this coming, but he's full of shit so what the hell lol
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United States10398 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:11 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote:On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote: NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent. With 12% reporting in? I don't get it. I got surprised by that too. 16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird. It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that. Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway. Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that. Indiana has a stupid lead supposedly, bigger than Kentucky, and it hasn't been called. Because Indiana didnt have its urban areas counted yet. Indianapolis specifically. In fact, some lean Trump counties right now with 50% reporting are actually in favor of biden or 50/50. See: Delaware county and Hamilton county.
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On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote: If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes? Yes. Trump has essentially 0 paths without it.
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your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote: If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes? It's very likely, but not certain. Trump could technically hold all his other states from 2016 and still win.
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