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2020 US Election - Page 22

Forum Index > General Forum
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The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
November 04 2020 00:13 GMT
#421
On November 04 2020 09:11 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote:
NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent.


With 12% reporting in? I don't get it.


I got surprised by that too.

16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird.

It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that.



Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway.

Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that.



Indiana has a stupid lead supposedly, bigger than Kentucky, and it hasn't been called.

Neither state is currently reflecting the lead that trump will end up with, and I believe that the more favorable mail-in votes for Biden were already counted in Kentucky (hence why he was ahead).
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46516 Posts
November 04 2020 00:13 GMT
#422
On November 04 2020 09:07 FlaShFTW wrote:
Have... have yall never watched a single election coverage night before? If anything, the fact that Indiana only just now got called is great. Trump had Indiana called instantly in 2016.

On November 04 2020 09:10 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 09:08 The_Templar wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:07 FlaShFTW wrote:
Have... have yall never watched a single election coverage night before? If anything, the fact that Indiana only just now got called is great. Trump had Indiana called instantly in 2016.

I'm surprised Virginia hasn't been called for Biden yet.

Apparently Fox called Virginia for Biden? That would be a good sign for Biden because Clinton got Virginia called for her very late.


While I think there's some value to extrapolating the timing of these states being called, in comparison to 2016, I don't know how predictive it will be for the actual swing states. I still think we have an hour before learning anything truly significant about the states that will actually decide the election.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 00:14:25
November 04 2020 00:14 GMT
#423
Florida will supposedly report a massive chunk of their vote in the next 15 minutes, which could pretty much decide the election right then and there.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46516 Posts
November 04 2020 00:14 GMT
#424
On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:
I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol:
[image loading]

NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^


That's hilarious, although to be fair, more than half of the 50 states could be called even before Election Day lol
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
November 04 2020 00:14 GMT
#425
On November 04 2020 09:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:
I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol:
[image loading]

NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^


That's hilarious, although to be fair, more than half of the 50 states could be called even before Election Day lol

Biden is going to somehow win Wyoming to prove this wrong.
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44382 Posts
November 04 2020 00:15 GMT
#426
On November 04 2020 09:06 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 09:04 Stratos_speAr wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote:
NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent.


With 12% reporting in? I don't get it.


I got surprised by that too.

16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird.


It's normal.

It's based on which vote totals have been reported (their demographics, which areas are left to tally still, etc.).

There's an actual method to it, but I'm not that good at explaining it.


So, just for me to understand - with, lets say, 16 out of 100 votes counted, there's no way that the outcome could change?

I honestly seem to be missing something essential here (very possible), but for some random foreigner who's following the election, that seems awfully weird.

Let’s say we’re playing a bo100 chess series and I win the first 16 games easily. It’s pretty clear how the series is going by that point.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
November 04 2020 00:15 GMT
#427
Florida at 43% reporting now.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 00:17:38
November 04 2020 00:16 GMT
#428
On November 04 2020 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Doesn't seem that cautious at all at the moment.

Which one? NYT or ABC? ABC still hasn't called any presidential races, just congressional ones.

NYT I was basing it off this quote:

Dean Baquet explains our ‘extraordinarily cautious’ election night approach on The Daily.


But yeah, not as cautious as the major networks... who got burned bad by 2000.


KY also counts votes very fast, which I think sets it apart from IN.
StasisField
Profile Joined August 2013
United States1086 Posts
November 04 2020 00:16 GMT
#429
On November 04 2020 09:15 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Florida at 43% reporting now.

With Biden leading 51.7% to 47.6% as well.
What do you mean Immortals can't shoot up?
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
November 04 2020 00:16 GMT
#430
Florida and GA currently blue on the politico map!
Life?
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24389 Posts
November 04 2020 00:17 GMT
#431
That's bad for Biden in Miami-Dade.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12577 Posts
November 04 2020 00:18 GMT
#432
On November 04 2020 09:11 ggrrg wrote:
I understand that the outcome in VT is pretty clear, but this projection made me lol:
[image loading]

NYT called VT for Biden with 0 votes reported at 7pm EST. If you are going to call the winner with 0 votes reported, you may as well call the state 2 months before elections ^^


It signifies that Biden's lead was so great from the data they have that there was no doubt he'd win the state.

As Flash pointed out earlier, in 2016 they did that with Indiana. This time they had to wait 16% to do that in Indiana. This shows that Trump's lead is less severe than it was then, or that Biden's lead is in Vermont.
No will to live, no wish to die
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
November 04 2020 00:18 GMT
#433
If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes?
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 04 2020 00:18 GMT
#434
Pinellas, Florida has apparently gone Blue. Supposed bellwether of the state.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States14003 Posts
November 04 2020 00:18 GMT
#435
On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote:
NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent.

And NBC called Indiana for Trump.

Fuck dude...Holcomb is a goddamn coward
Engage, Zero target Engage, Engage, Kagari target Engage, Engage.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18869 Posts
November 04 2020 00:19 GMT
#436
On November 04 2020 09:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Pinellas, Florida has apparently gone Blue. Supposed bellwether of the state.

My buddy from St. Petersburg tells me he saw this coming, but he's full of shit so what the hell lol
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10569 Posts
November 04 2020 00:19 GMT
#437
On November 04 2020 09:11 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 09:08 m4ini wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:06 Nevuk wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:03 m4ini wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On November 04 2020 09:01 Stratos_speAr wrote:
NYT just called Kentucky for Trump and Indiana's governor race for the GOP incumbent.


With 12% reporting in? I don't get it.


I got surprised by that too.

16% counted and called? That's.. weird. Maybe it's normal or something, but to me as a non-american, that's weird.

It's normal. US news institutions really are a bit unprofessional in calling them early, but basically if polls show a massive lead in a race and election results are matching it, they'll call it based on a 98% confidence level or something like that.



Well 54 to 46 with 16% counted doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead to me. According to the politico map anyway.

Just.. weird, but i guess, if it's normal, who am i to say that.



Indiana has a stupid lead supposedly, bigger than Kentucky, and it hasn't been called.

Because Indiana didnt have its urban areas counted yet. Indianapolis specifically. In fact, some lean Trump counties right now with 50% reporting are actually in favor of biden or 50/50. See: Delaware county and Hamilton county.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom10011 Posts
November 04 2020 00:19 GMT
#438
....lol

RIP Meatloaf <3
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
November 04 2020 00:19 GMT
#439
On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote:
If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes?

Yes. Trump has essentially 0 paths without it.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
November 04 2020 00:19 GMT
#440
On November 04 2020 09:18 Stratos_speAr wrote:
If Florida goes blue, we all agree that the race is pretty much decided, yes?

It's very likely, but not certain. Trump could technically hold all his other states from 2016 and still win.
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
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