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On November 07 2020 03:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
The more they delay calling the states the more violent his supporters will/can get.
And the drunker they will get...
It really should have been a 9AM call this morning like the TL decision desk.
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On November 07 2020 01:22 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 01:14 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 07 2020 00:48 DucK- wrote:
Hi all.
In my part of the world, Trump is generally viewed as a joke of a POTUS, understandably due to his frequent media outbursts and flipping of stories. His handling of COVID is also deemed to be poor. However, I personally do not know much about what he has done to fairly critic his actual performance.
So I would like to just ask Americans here, why did you vote for Trump? I didn't vote in 2016, but by the end I was somewhat leaning to Trump simply because of my poor opinion of Hilary Clinton. In terms of why Trump has kept popularity, he knows how to charge up his base, holding rallies frequently throughout his presidency. Pre-COVID the economy was good. I have no been swayed by his rhetoric of hate and fear however. Nor has his failure to uphold his promise to protect trucking jobs been great, as they blame who else but immigrants. His environemental, and immigration policies have been piss poor, and his foreign policy hasn't been the best either. The "good pre - covid economy" was bought by Trump with the highest depth / GPD the USA ever had. Also I suggest to look up some basic keynesian macroeoconomics on to when to spent money on the economy and when not to. Trumps economic politics were absolutly shit from a scientiffic point of view.
This this this. Trump doesn't care that the debt explodes in the end, he isn't going to be the one in charge when there will be a reckoning. It's easy to pump the economy short term, just shell out the money. Only the US can do that due to the dollar, but at some point even for the US it's not sustainable and will hurt, A LOT in the end....
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was fun lads! America has spoken! They don't want a prez who can't denounce groups like Qanon and Proud Boys, they don't want an anti-science nimrod, and they don't want a sensitive man-child who can't keep off twitter. Rarely does a US president lose as an incumbent, you gotta be a dumbass and try to lose it. He's always hated losers 😊 he's now their king.
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On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question.
I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 03:29 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question. I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack.
Most definitely. What are your thoughts on Georgia and Arizona? Part of me suspects that Arizona will be more favorable to your traditional conservatives and still cannot be considered a swing state, while a state like Georgia might also fall in that category but with a larger black demographic, could be turned into a true swing-state as well.
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On November 07 2020 03:32 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:29 Zambrah wrote:On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question. I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack. Most definitely. What are your thoughts on Georgia and Arizona? Part of me suspects that Arizona will be more favorable to your traditional conservatives and still cannot be considered a swing state, while a state like Georgia might also fall in that category but with a larger black demographic, could be turned into a true swing-state as well.
Arizona has a growing progressive Latino population (in contrast to Florida's more conservative Latino population).
Arizona will be difficult for Dems in the forseeable future but I think it should be feasible in any given election.
I think Georgia really rests on turnout and youth activism going forward, and I think holding on to Georgia will be harder for Dems unless they can change who controls the state government so they can reverse all of the voter suppression tactics Republicans have used there.
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All in all, I think it's remarkable how calm things have been on the streets. So far(!) we haven't seen anything of what people feared comming in to this election. Thumbsup.
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I think that if AZ goes to Biden (and in my mind, that's the only state that's an "if" and not a "when" besides NC), it will be at least partly attributable to how much Trump shat on McCain. Especially after McCain's death. Plus, Biden and McCain were close.
That effect obviously won't be in play for the foreseeable future (even if there is a 2024 Trump run, the pain will have faded by then). Makes it a worse target for Dems, but still probably not worth ignoring.
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On November 07 2020 03:28 Golgotha wrote:
was fun lads! America has spoken! They don't want a prez who can't denounce groups like Qanon and Proud Boys, they don't want an anti-science nimrod, and they don't want a sensitive man-child who can't keep off twitter. Rarely does a US president lose as an incumbent, you gotta be a dumbass and try to lose it. He's always hated losers 😊 he's now their king.
Our collective problem with losers is a major issue, something we've gotta solve. If the US can get away from its vulgar and immoral take on what losers do and don't deserve, we might actually start getting somewhere.
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On November 07 2020 03:32 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:29 Zambrah wrote:On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question. I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack. Most definitely. What are your thoughts on Georgia and Arizona? Part of me suspects that Arizona will be more favorable to your traditional conservatives and still cannot be considered a swing state, while a state like Georgia might also fall in that category but with a larger black demographic, could be turned into a true swing-state as well.
GA and AZ are soft, theyre going to require what Stacy Abrams was doing in GA, and I think AZ is softer than GA, but theyre appealable to in a way that is totally swingable with the right strategy.
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Fucking call the election smh
ABC showed on the philly map, how Biden is up AND is projected to expand that lead AND that thats enough to win the election
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 03:35 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:32 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:29 Zambrah wrote:On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question. I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack. Most definitely. What are your thoughts on Georgia and Arizona? Part of me suspects that Arizona will be more favorable to your traditional conservatives and still cannot be considered a swing state, while a state like Georgia might also fall in that category but with a larger black demographic, could be turned into a true swing-state as well. Arizona has a growing progressive Latino population (in contrast to Florida's more conservative Latino population). Arizona will be difficult for Dems in the forseeable future but I think it should be feasible in any given election. I think Georgia really rests on turnout and youth activism going forward, and I think holding on to Georgia will be harder for Dems unless they can change who controls the state government so they can reverse all of the voter suppression tactics Republicans have used there.
Seems like the consensus is that both Georgia and Arizona are still lean red then, worth attacking but not worth chasing if the election is going to depend on the northern wall. In which case, here's the updated battleground map:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/Gtkl961.png)
It's fascinating to see that Reps actually picked up more states (Florida lean, Ohio, Iowa) than Dems (Virginia, NH). Republicans must actually still be quite happy with what they see from the electorate. They know Arizona and Georgia are easily flipped back to red next cycle.
On November 07 2020 03:36 Longshank wrote:
All in all, I think it's remarkable how calm things have been on the streets. So far(!) we haven't seen anything of what people feared comming in to this election. Thumbsup.
Well Trump has been more sad than angry, so it really comes down to his mood and how he wants to lash out or just feel pathetic.
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Ohio's virulently anti-COVID measure attitude played a key role in it being so solidly red this year, I highly doubt that'll figure into a stable trend. A pro-Labor Dem of Sherrod Brown-ilk will always have a puncher's chance there.
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On November 07 2020 03:37 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:28 Golgotha wrote:
was fun lads! America has spoken! They don't want a prez who can't denounce groups like Qanon and Proud Boys, they don't want an anti-science nimrod, and they don't want a sensitive man-child who can't keep off twitter. Rarely does a US president lose as an incumbent, you gotta be a dumbass and try to lose it. He's always hated losers 😊 he's now their king. Our collective problem with losers is a major issue, something we've gotta solve. If the US can get away from its vulgar and immoral take on what losers do and don't deserve, we might actually start getting somewhere.
tell that to our current president, I already know xD
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On November 07 2020 03:35 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:32 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:29 Zambrah wrote:On November 07 2020 03:27 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 03:24 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 03:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On November 07 2020 02:58 IyMoon wrote:On November 07 2020 02:57 Diavlo wrote:On November 07 2020 02:40 JimmiC wrote:
I wonder if the Reps are blocking a supreme court nominee with 3 years to go in Bidens term if that will fire up Dems enough to knock them out of the senate 2022, or motivate the rep voters to hold the senate. My guess is what McConnal will do will hinge on how he thinks it will work out for him and his senate power. I think self interest is above their desire to pack the courts. I'm guessing you can't extend the number of SCOTUS judges without 60% of the senate right? not at all. You just need to get rid of the big buster. That only takes 50+1 Practically speaking 50 + 1 isn't enough for bigger, more controversial changes like adding justices or getting rid of the filibuster. You'll usually end up with a few senators getting cold feet (usually Manchin or Sinema). Getting 50 + 1 would be important for Biden's agenda, but wouldn't really mean anything more progressive or controversial getting through. 50 is enough to reform the filibuster rather than a complete nuke, which could resolve the worst abuses. Even McCain pointed out that the 2018 change made it inevitable. It's definitely not enough for changing the courts or the green new deal, though. So uh, China, hope you have a better plan for climate change than the US (I suspect they do, if only because it'd be hard to do worse). On November 07 2020 03:24 FlaShFTW wrote:+ Show Spoiler +This is the change of vote map from 2020 compared to 2016. I think as we look, rural and cities most definitely are shifting into polar opposites, but this isn't necessarily the case in every state. Colorado had a lot of rurals move blue, same with Michigan and Wisconsin that allowed them to land into the Biden column. Same with the surrounding suburbs of the large Texas cities, and even PA we see some rural counties with some blue arrows. I think the map tells us a compelling picture of the future of our democracy and the electorate: a large battle between the rural counties, and the suburbs+urban cities. This brings me to the point of the analysis: anticipating the future of the electorate in Presidential elections. Anything can change in the next 4 years, but here is how I view the potential battle ground map of 2024: + Show Spoiler +Of course, with Trump out of office, Republican strategies must change and change dramatically. No longer will Republicans be picking if they want to be associated with Trump or not. But the ideas of Trump, things like Qanon, immigration, healthcare, will still be a choice for many Republicans. Overall, I believe that states like New Hampshire and Virginia have moved solidly into reliable blue states, while states like Ohio and Iowa have moved into reliable red states. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while definitely outliers for this election, will be more heavily contested. I still believe that all are lean red states, but if Dems can run a really strong ticket/good campaigning strategies, Republicans must defend these states rather than ignore them and focus on the normal battle grounds of the "blue wall" and Florida. + Show Spoiler + Florida should definitely be red, imo I think Florida is always a weird state, I don't want to give it a lean red bias just yet, Trump did manage to rile up those older and Cuban voters. We'll have to see if Republican stay on that strategy, or will they change with the changing of the guard for top of the ticket republicans? That's what big question. I think we're going to keep seeing the They're a Commie Socialist attacks basically until it stops being an attack, and I think that Florida might be the state most susceptible to that sort of attack. Most definitely. What are your thoughts on Georgia and Arizona? Part of me suspects that Arizona will be more favorable to your traditional conservatives and still cannot be considered a swing state, while a state like Georgia might also fall in that category but with a larger black demographic, could be turned into a true swing-state as well. Arizona has a growing progressive Latino population (in contrast to Florida's more conservative Latino population). Arizona will be difficult for Dems in the forseeable future but I think it should be feasible in any given election. I think Georgia really rests on turnout and youth activism going forward, and I think holding on to Georgia will be harder for Dems unless they can change who controls the state government so they can reverse all of the voter suppression tactics Republicans have used there.
Trump saw success with Mexican Americans in Texas along the Rio Grande, and they aren't that demographically different from the Latinos in Arizona (unlike Florida Latinos who are quite different), so I could certainly see the GOP continuing to gain with them and move Arizona away from swing state status.
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Republicans are still favored in a basic election imo, like theyll probably win next time if Democrats dont make an effort to prove they give a shit about people and start to shed their Ivory Tower Elite stigma.
GA and AZ could honestly turn into proper Blue Wall type states within a decade if the Democrats stop being so self satisfied and smug about themselves and get to work there.
EDIT: I also think Democrats should focus on the Latinx vote, one of Bidens biggest mistakes here was completely writing them off and thinking that dumb fucking Despacito stunt was all he needed.
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Yeah, large-scale riots or violence would need a shift from "whiny Trump" to "fire and brimstone Trump" and I haven't seen much sign of that over the course of today.
Basically I don't think he has the fire and brimstone in him at this point. But they should still call it sooner rather than later.
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On November 07 2020 03:44 Golgotha wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 03:37 farvacola wrote:On November 07 2020 03:28 Golgotha wrote:
was fun lads! America has spoken! They don't want a prez who can't denounce groups like Qanon and Proud Boys, they don't want an anti-science nimrod, and they don't want a sensitive man-child who can't keep off twitter. Rarely does a US president lose as an incumbent, you gotta be a dumbass and try to lose it. He's always hated losers 😊 he's now their king. Our collective problem with losers is a major issue, something we've gotta solve. If the US can get away from its vulgar and immoral take on what losers do and don't deserve, we might actually start getting somewhere. tell that to our current president, I already know xD
only things I have to say to him are go to jail or go away, circumstances depending :D
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On November 07 2020 03:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Yeah, large-scale riots or violence would need a shift from "whiny Trump" to "fire and brimstone Trump" and I haven't seen much sign of that over the course of today.
Basically I don't think he has the fire and brimstone in him at this point. But they should still call it sooner rather than later.
He knows he can always get a good deal in Russia. Don't need to go all in the US.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 03:45 Zambrah wrote:
Republicans are still favored in a basic election imo, like theyll probably win next time if Democrats dont make an effort to prove they give a shit about people and start to shed their Ivory Tower Elite stigma.
GA and AZ could honestly turn into proper Blue Wall type states within a decade if the Democrats stop being so self satisfied and smug about themselves and get to work there.
Yes, Dems need to stop taking for granted their minority vote. They are a massively growing demographic but they just expect to gain their trust. Dems have always lacked in this department which allows Republicans, even with arguably worse policies and ideals, to continue to win elections.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/CP9ARzy.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/g64glQN.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/XoWbZO7.png)
