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2020 US Election - Page 196

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FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 06 2020 02:42 GMT
#3901
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21

Where the hell are they finding these votes from?! no county moved on the NYT county data map.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 06 2020 02:42 GMT
#3902
On November 06 2020 11:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21


If none of that batch includes the 5K Clayton votes that's pretty much it for Trump.

If it's with...it's also probably also it for Trump. But less so.

Clayton didn't move unless NYT is slow to update the county level map. Clayton still at 96% with 106572 votes total cast.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27238 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 02:44:12
November 06 2020 02:43 GMT
#3903
On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.

Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US?

They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system.


lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too

I listen to a British based political comedy podcast which frequently has an Indian on it whose chief angle on India is that bureaucracy doesn’t function whatsoever and as you say even then you can do a huge election pretty smoothly.

The episode where he explained Modi’s overnight removal of certain forms of currency being legal tender was both baffling, amusing and informative in equal amounts.

A bit sad though, India is fucking massive and a growing part of the world economy, unless you browse Indian websites you hear almost nothing of what’s going on over there. That said the same is kind of the case about internal Chinese affairs as well. So just a third of the world we largely ignore in media
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Wegandi
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2455 Posts
November 06 2020 02:44 GMT
#3904
On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.

Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US?

They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system.


lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too


The US has expansive means to let people vote. Does India also have mail in votes, absentee voting, day of voting, early voting, etc.? Granted some of this is way too drawn out. We learned here in FL after 2000 how to fucking count in a timely manner and make things more streamlined. Look how well we did this year.
Thank you bureaucrats for all your hard work, your commitment to public service and public good is essential to the lives of so many. Also, for Pete's sake can we please get some gun control already, no need for hand guns and assault rifles for the public
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
November 06 2020 02:44 GMT
#3905
On November 06 2020 11:38 CorsairHero wrote:
In other news Steve Bannon got banned on twitter

What did he tweet? I know he was suggesting beheading Fauci on his show, but I thought that only got you arrested by the FBI, not banned on twitter.
Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
November 06 2020 02:45 GMT
#3906
On November 06 2020 11:38 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:27 Nevuk wrote:
Alaska is a weird, weird state.

It has elected, by far, the furthest left senator the US has ever had from a major party (Mike Gravel, who is probably left of Sanders and should be remembered very fondly for releasing the pentagon papers), in addition to being an R leaning state.

People don't really like calling it early as it has a propensity for unusual voting patterns (somewhat like NH).

Remember, this is where a person whose last name was "Murkowski" won an election where she to be a write in, spelled correctly, against her own party's nominee.

I add Montana to that list of states with strong independent/libertarian qualities that on occasion give Democrats a good surprise. Alaska and Montana definitely have a dominant Republican presence, but they don't vote party line if they see a Democrat they like. Though Bullock got blown out despite his good reputation in Montana as a governor. It would be hilarious if the mail-ins in Alaska actually end up electing Al Gross to the Senate and suddenly things aren't so pessimistic for Senate Democrats.


These were good explanations, thanks!
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
November 06 2020 02:45 GMT
#3907
On November 06 2020 11:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21


If none of that batch includes the 5K Clayton votes that's pretty much it for Trump.

If it's with...it's also probably also it for Trump. But less so.

Clayton didn't move unless NYT is slow to update the county level map. Clayton still at 96% with 106572 votes total cast.


NYT has been extremely slow, including on election day.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 02:46:49
November 06 2020 02:45 GMT
#3908
I kind of understand where the Fox and AP decision desks are coming from. Even if the correct move is un-calling at this point, the masses won't care if it turns out Biden (and I think that's still the more likely outcome). And they've already taken the credibility hit in the forecasting community, regardless of whether they un-call or not. It's basically like a 55/45 coin flip.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 06 2020 02:46 GMT
#3909
On November 06 2020 11:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21


If none of that batch includes the 5K Clayton votes that's pretty much it for Trump.

If it's with...it's also probably also it for Trump. But less so.

Clayton didn't move unless NYT is slow to update the county level map. Clayton still at 96% with 106572 votes total cast.

yep, and the only other county (Taylor) didn't move either
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
November 06 2020 02:46 GMT
#3910
On November 06 2020 11:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I kind of understand where the Fox and AP decision desks are coming from. Even if the correct move is un-calling at this point, the masses won't care if it turns out Biden (and I think that's still the more likely outcome). And they've already taken the credibility hit in the forecasting community, regardless of whether they un-call or not.

Only openly admit you messed up if you have to, seek credit, avoid blame.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
November 06 2020 02:46 GMT
#3911
On November 06 2020 11:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21

Where the hell are they finding these votes from?! no county moved on the NYT county data map.

I'm sure Trump has an answer for that, lol
Kamisamanachi
Profile Joined April 2015
4665 Posts
November 06 2020 02:47 GMT
#3912
On November 06 2020 11:43 WombaT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.

Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US?

They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system.


lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too

I listen to a British based political comedy podcast which frequently has an Indian on it whose chief angle on India is that bureaucracy doesn’t function whatsoever and as you say even then you can do a huge election pretty smoothly.

The episode where he explained Modi’s overnight removal of certain forms of currency being legal tender was both baffling, amusing and informative in equal amounts.

A bit sad though, India is fucking massive and a growing part of the world economy, unless you browse Indian websites you hear almost nothing of what’s going on over there. That said the same is kind of the case about internal Chinese affairs as well. So just a third of the world we largely ignore in media


India's bureaucracy is disaster and that's an understatement. and that currency removal was one of the joke decisions of this century anyone could have taken in a country like India
fan of dream runs. orange ti3 , fnatic ti6 , wings ti6 , cdec ti5 !! B-god's anti mage , mushi's shadow fiend
Shingi11
Profile Joined May 2016
290 Posts
November 06 2020 02:47 GMT
#3913
On November 06 2020 11:46 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21

Where the hell are they finding these votes from?! no county moved on the NYT county data map.

I'm sure Trump has an answer for that, lol


California, we have the best on it
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 06 2020 02:47 GMT
#3914
On November 06 2020 11:45 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:38 GoShox wrote:
Georgia is down to a 1,902 vote lead for Trump. Biden won the latest batch of 1,031 79/21


If none of that batch includes the 5K Clayton votes that's pretty much it for Trump.

If it's with...it's also probably also it for Trump. But less so.

Clayton didn't move unless NYT is slow to update the county level map. Clayton still at 96% with 106572 votes total cast.


NYT has been extremely slow, including on election day.

Sure but they definitely would've updated the map if they updated the total vote tally. No counties at least in the top 10 left moved. So I guess there were some leftover ballots in some other county then that were counted.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Wegandi
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2455 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 02:53:50
November 06 2020 02:48 GMT
#3915
On November 06 2020 11:38 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:27 Nevuk wrote:
Alaska is a weird, weird state.

It has elected, by far, the furthest left senator the US has ever had from a major party (Mike Gravel, who is probably left of Sanders and should be remembered very fondly for releasing the pentagon papers), in addition to being an R leaning state.

People don't really like calling it early as it has a propensity for unusual voting patterns (somewhat like NH).

Remember, this is where a person whose last name was "Murkowski" won an election where she to be a write in, spelled correctly, against her own party's nominee.

I add Montana to that list of states with strong independent/libertarian qualities that on occasion give Democrats a good surprise. Alaska and Montana definitely have a dominant Republican presence, but they don't vote party line if they see a Democrat they like. Though Bullock got blown out despite his good reputation in Montana as a governor. It would be hilarious if the mail-ins in Alaska actually end up electing Al Gross to the Senate and suddenly things aren't so pessimistic for Senate Democrats.


NH is the ice on the cake (as someone who is a member of the FSP and will eventually move there). Dems dominate federal elections while the State is Red Red otherwise with a large libertarian presence.

This election the GOP in NH retook all branches of Government and Exec council by a large margin. So NH voters voted for Biden and Sheehan by a big margin and also on local and state level for GOP in a huge margin (lots of FSP aligned wins. 40+ in the House though Gericke lost her State Senate bid /sadface).
Thank you bureaucrats for all your hard work, your commitment to public service and public good is essential to the lives of so many. Also, for Pete's sake can we please get some gun control already, no need for hand guns and assault rifles for the public
Kamisamanachi
Profile Joined April 2015
4665 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-06 02:50:19
November 06 2020 02:49 GMT
#3916
On November 06 2020 11:44 Wegandi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.

Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US?

They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system.


lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too


The US has expansive means to let people vote. Does India also have mail in votes, absentee voting, day of voting, early voting, etc.? Granted some of this is way too drawn out. We learned here in FL after 2000 how to fucking count in a timely manner and make things more streamlined. Look how well we did this year.


nope, thats why i was asking earlier for some explanation. This is the first US election i am following. India has postal ballots and electronic voting machines which generate paper trail when someone votes.
fan of dream runs. orange ti3 , fnatic ti6 , wings ti6 , cdec ti5 !! B-god's anti mage , mushi's shadow fiend
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27238 Posts
November 06 2020 02:49 GMT
#3917
On November 06 2020 11:38 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:26 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:17 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:03 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 10:45 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 10:40 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 10:31 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 10:24 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 10:05 Wegandi wrote:
Whatever I reiterate my point that democrats wailing about GOP not compromising are themselves not willing to compromise. The political tension in this country is high and people are drifting apart. This isnt some unique thing to the GOP. Shit rings hollow just like Graham re: ACB and Merrick Garland.

Why would you compromise with the GOP and what on, what are you getting out of that arrangement?

The President can’t even tucking concede an election like a man. After 4 years of well, we know what.

If your strategy is rampant obstructionism and we’re at this point we are today, either rebuild the shambles of a party to a point where mutual compromise is not just pragmatic, but in the interests of the populace at large.

Or don’t and continue down the current path and we’ll see where that goes.

Inb4 the Dems are partisan too, well no shit.


Cory Booker and Rand Paul re: criminal justice? Maybe you get dems OK with tax cuts and lower tax rates for some environmental thing or w/e? But thats the thing neither side will ever allow a budge on any position. Id happily sign off on axing oil subsidies to lower marginal income rates of all brackets by 25%.

Booker and Paul are not exactly in line with the GOP on those issues. I’d consider them as borderline independents in the inverse sense Bernie is an Independent who is in the Democrat camp. The GOP rank and file and associated media propagandists?

Even in your hypothetical it’s a trade for something that should (IMO) obviously be done vs the Dems kneecapping their ability to fund their wider programs, why would they go for it?

The ideal is in hypothetical land Rand Paul and Cory Booker slide across the aisle on this one issue which they’re clearly in alignment on, and go back to doing battle on fiscal policy. And the alternative in some other issue.



You have to give to get. Ok so youre not willing to compromise on tax cuts. What about regulations? What are you willing to compromise with? The point of compromise is neither side is entirely happy. You willing to expand gun rights?

Which is why the narrative that GOP are obstructionists and will never compromise, etc. is so stupid. Neither side is. Its purity or youre thrown to the wolves. The discord and disunity in the country is to be blamed on everyone not just the GOP.

Tax cuts for universal health care?

I wasn’t quibbling with the idea of compromise, merely your example as a rather uneven trade was all.

Sure everyone is to blame, just not everyone is equally to blame.


Fair enough. Universal Health care eh....thats gonna cost big. Eliminate the income tax. Gonna have to pay for it with tariffs and capital gains taxes lol.

Hey we’re getting somewhere.

I’m not sure how we get out of the current situation, even in the U.K. with a (relatively) rare counter example there’s a lot more crossing of the aisles than we see in the US.

As to why it’s strange because in theory the US has a lot of checks and balances that should enable more not less divergence from the party line.

I suppose the fundage needed to run, especially at a Senate level is considerably more, so you’re kind of more dependent on toeing the party line?

I can’t remember the exact stat but it was something akin to decades of every single U.K. election including local ones and European ones didn’t even make up a singular Presidential campaign in terms of spending

There is public funding in the US for most elections, but you have to win the primary of a party that received >5% of the vote in the last election to get it. It's also not competitive amounts of money, just enough to actually run (Obama declined to take it in 2008 because he thought the system was broken. Still not sure what to make of that, but it definitely made him more beholden to wall street).

The primaries are the biggest barrier that requires money to win. There's a reason most of our politicians started out wealthy - that's what it takes to win, unless you're extremely talented politically and a good fit for the district (ie AOC).

While our system is expensive, a lot of it is probably wasted expenditures. Our most expensive stuff is for something of very dubious quality :
TV ads. More people see these from the campaign's youtube or twitter than from the actual TV, as generally everything is DVR'd and has commercials fast forwarded through, with the possible exception of sports. It's also not going to reach younger individuals who generally use netflix or Hulu plus or something without ads.

If money was all it took to flip races then Bloomberg would have won the primary, Hillary would be president and AOC would still be a bartender or have lost her last race. Money buys name recognition, as far as we can tell, but it can't make the voters like you.

Imo, a lot of money for a campaign is a sign that they have a lot of support in the first place : not a sign that they'll be able to use it to get more.
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:26 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:20 ChristianS wrote:
Filed under “whatever happens tonight our democracy is still deeply fucked”:

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1324520193503223808?s=21


I think that tells you all you need to know (and its across the spectrum). Damn I bet Weiner wishing he had gotten away with it for a few more years. Shucks.

I'm wondering if this'll change without Trump on the ballot. He basically made caring about any scandal a partisan issue by his presence.

It was never a very strong effect, anyways- the last 538 analysis on this was that the biggest effect was politicians resigning due to shame. If they went to election, it was at most, 10 points off their final result.

I agree there, I see money behind a candidate as being correlative and wanting to get into the tent than being causative as per success.

Also state autonomy as well. Your money doesn’t necessarily go that far with a British politician who is one of 600ish in a unicameral chamber and whose electoral district is a small patch of London vs say a Senator in one of the bigger states.

So separation of powers can open up another avenue of corruption even as it closes some
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 06 2020 02:49 GMT
#3918
On November 06 2020 11:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I kind of understand where the Fox and AP decision desks are coming from. Even if the correct move is un-calling at this point, the masses won't care if it turns out Biden (and I think that's still the more likely outcome). And they've already taken the credibility hit in the forecasting community, regardless of whether they un-call or not. It's basically like a 55/45 coin flip.

oh yeah for sure.

You gain nothing in terms of credibility by uncalling. Sadly, admitting your mistakes tend to not be very popular and they already took the hit in credibility.
But if you keep it called as blue and it stays blue it looks slightly better for them I guess.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27238 Posts
November 06 2020 02:50 GMT
#3919
On November 06 2020 11:47 Kamisamanachi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2020 11:43 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:
On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.

Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US?

They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system.


lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too

I listen to a British based political comedy podcast which frequently has an Indian on it whose chief angle on India is that bureaucracy doesn’t function whatsoever and as you say even then you can do a huge election pretty smoothly.

The episode where he explained Modi’s overnight removal of certain forms of currency being legal tender was both baffling, amusing and informative in equal amounts.

A bit sad though, India is fucking massive and a growing part of the world economy, unless you browse Indian websites you hear almost nothing of what’s going on over there. That said the same is kind of the case about internal Chinese affairs as well. So just a third of the world we largely ignore in media


India's bureaucracy is disaster and that's an understatement. and that currency removal was one of the joke decisions of this century anyone could have taken in a country like India

Cheers for the Indian perspective, welcome to TL politics threads!
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 06 2020 02:52 GMT
#3920
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324544395706834945?s=20

At least there's one thing Nate knows how to do, and that's meme/shitpost. This is funny.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
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