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On November 06 2020 11:49 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 11:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I kind of understand where the Fox and AP decision desks are coming from. Even if the correct move is un-calling at this point, the masses won't care if it turns out Biden (and I think that's still the more likely outcome). And they've already taken the credibility hit in the forecasting community, regardless of whether they un-call or not. It's basically like a 55/45 coin flip. oh yeah for sure. You gain nothing in terms of credibility by uncalling. Sadly, admitting your mistakes tend to not be very popular and they already took the hit in credibility. But if you keep it called as blue and it stays blue it looks slightly better for them I guess.
Yep. It's further amplified because the PA going blue means them calling AZ wrong wouldn't matter anyway in the end (given that NV is almost certainly blue).
I bet the more academic people on the desk are pissed, though.
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On November 06 2020 11:44 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 11:37 Kamisamanachi wrote:On November 06 2020 11:33 WombaT wrote:On November 06 2020 11:31 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am just a guy watching all this process of election from India. But, from whatever i have seen, this is one of the weirdest election count processes i have seen in a while. I mean , Asian countries like India counts their votes in like 12-13 hours and more than 700 mil people vote there.
Can anyone provide any explanation as to why it takes so long to count the vote in US? They use imperial measurements when counting votes which is less efficient than the metric system. lol. At this point, i will take this as valid explanation. I really think a country as rich as US should not have any problem with having voter ID's or efficient election count processes. and that too, when stakes are so high in the election for rest of the world too The US has expansive means to let people vote. Does India also have mail in votes, absentee voting, day of voting, early voting, etc.? Granted some of this is way too drawn out. We learned here in FL after 2000 how to fucking count in a timely manner and make things more streamlined. Look how well we did this year.
I think most countries have that. The big difference will be different states being winner-takes-all and then there's a couple who just matter a lot.
California is at 77% reported but noone gives a fuck because it's obviously going to be a Democrat win.
So in that sense all these states like PA and GA aren't even that slow, it's just that their results actually matter. If it was (in some way) by popular vote you could have long called it. Which isn't an argument to change it to popular vote but just to show the biggest difference imo.
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So, a Biden win is all but confirmed at this point, right? I am seeing that he is ahead/ going to go ahead in rest of the remaining states based on votes remaining to count.
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On November 06 2020 11:54 Kamisamanachi wrote:
So, a Biden win is all but confirmed at this point, right? I am seeing that he is ahead/ going to go ahead in rest of the remaining states based on votes remaining to count.
we are in "all but certain" territory imo, things have to be wildly wrong for that to not hold
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I dunno about Florida learning how to count... didn't Broward county fuck up counting votes really hard in 2016 and 2018 again? (I think it was the exact same administrator who caused the issues with the 2000 vote, apparently).
Following a court ruling in May that Broward Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes had illegally destroyed ballots from a 2016 congressional race, the governor's office announced the Florida Department of State would send election experts to Snipes' office during this year's election "to ensure that all laws are followed" and "to observe the administration of the election."
https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/09/broward-county-inside-the-most-controversial-elections-department-in-florida/
In 2018 she did it again lol:
In a newly published draft audit, County Auditor Bob Melton’s staff found that half the county’s polling places reported more votes than voters, and that mail ballots weren’t properly tracked, monitored or processed in a timely manner. Other, previously well-documented issues noted in the audit included the poor design of the ballot and the misplacement of more than 2,000 ballots during the recount.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-broward-election-audit-2018-brenda-snipes-20200526-rswvxtj2ljasjmfi7w75moo52e-story.html
Then again, my dad was hired as a (head/chief) auditor for a fairly large city in Florida briefly and it left me pretty disillusioned with their officials (the same person hired something like 9 auditors in 2 years, and all of them quit after realizing she was asking them to selectively audit her enemies, at which point higher ups ordered her audited).
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On November 06 2020 11:54 Kamisamanachi wrote:
So, a Biden win is all but confirmed at this point, right? I am seeing that he is ahead/ going to go ahead in rest of the remaining states based on votes remaining to count.
Odds of a Biden EC victory are at an all-time high, yep. It would take some really wonky stuff for him to fall behind in PA or NV, and some pretty wonky stuff to fall behind in GA. AZ is its own beast.
Odds will probably hit 95%+ on betting markets soon.
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On November 06 2020 11:55 Nevuk wrote:I dunno about Florida learning how to count... didn't Broward county fuck up counting votes really hard in 2016 and 2018 again? (I think it was the exact same administrator who caused the issues with the 2000 vote, apparently). Show nested quote +
Following a court ruling in May that Broward Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes had illegally destroyed ballots from a 2016 congressional race, the governor's office announced the Florida Department of State would send election experts to Snipes' office during this year's election "to ensure that all laws are followed" and "to observe the administration of the election."
https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/09/broward-county-inside-the-most-controversial-elections-department-in-florida/In 2018 she did it again lol: Show nested quote +
In a newly published draft audit, County Auditor Bob Melton’s staff found that half the county’s polling places reported more votes than voters, and that mail ballots weren’t properly tracked, monitored or processed in a timely manner. Other, previously well-documented issues noted in the audit included the poor design of the ballot and the misplacement of more than 2,000 ballots during the recount.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-broward-election-audit-2018-brenda-snipes-20200526-rswvxtj2ljasjmfi7w75moo52e-story.htmlThen again, my dad was hired as a (head/chief) auditor for a fairly large city in Florida briefly and it left me pretty disillusioned with their officials (the same person hired something like 9 auditors in 2 years, and all of them quit after realizing she was asking them to selectively audit her enemies, at which point higher ups ordered her audited).
We dont talk about Snipes here in FL. Probably the worst election official in the country. What a disaster she is.
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On November 06 2020 11:56 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 11:54 Kamisamanachi wrote:
So, a Biden win is all but confirmed at this point, right? I am seeing that he is ahead/ going to go ahead in rest of the remaining states based on votes remaining to count. Odds of a Biden EC victory are at an all-time high, yep. It would take some really wonky stuff for him to fall behind in PA or NV, and some pretty wonky stuff to fall behind in GA. AZ is its own beast. Odds will probably hit 95%+ on betting markets soon.
Thanks for the explanation. seems like that's quite an high chance to even challenge in courts.
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Biden apparently needs only 56% of the remaining votes in Georgia to take the lead there.
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Northern Ireland26799 Posts
I suppose the one silver lining of all this interminable delay is I can bring out my absolutely shite ‘he’s been Biden his time’ puns anyway
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On November 06 2020 11:54 Kamisamanachi wrote:
So, a Biden win is all but confirmed at this point, right? I am seeing that he is ahead/ going to go ahead in rest of the remaining states based on votes remaining to count.
Yep, it's over 
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Personally I think regardless of which gets called first PA deserves the MVP over GA this year. Recount, provisional, and overseas in GA will be a thing, and I think a couple decision desks literally can't call it with the numbers of outstanding votes.
Though honestly I could also see it going for FL, even though the state went to Trump, given that it firmly ruled out the "Biden landslide" possibility.
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your Country52798 Posts
I'm going to be trying so hard to not loudly celebrate once Georgia gets called, let me tell you.
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Fox news' primetime lineup is doing far more harm than Trump ever could, viz a vis democracy
Hannity is suggesting that PA should have a do-over election after using videos from a fraudster convicted for fraud (Project Veritas) that purported to show election fraud from the other side.
Carlson is claiming that democrats and the media will force republicans into submission after refusing to investigate fraud allegations so that they can end the election too early.
So, let’s say that the news networks decide to do that. Shut it down. What then? Donald Trump and his voters would complain, obviously, but what can they really do? They are not news anchors. They don’t own their own channels. And if you wanted to stop them from complaining, it wouldn’t be very hard. You would just accuse them of attacking democracy. Then, you would censor their social media posts. You might even pull the president off Twitter completely.
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Imagine being so out of touch with reality that you think there's even the slightest chance Twitter would ever ban Trump. Let alone ban him before he leaves office.
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Speaking of fraudsters, I saw Trump re-tweeted a James O'Keefe video earlier. A naive part of me had hoped we'd rid ourselves of that shitstain.
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On November 06 2020 12:08 TheYango wrote:
Speaking of fraudsters, I saw Trump re-tweeted a James O'Keefe video earlier. A naive part of me had hoped we'd rid ourselves of that shitstain.
That's who I was referencing. Hannity was using that video.
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On November 06 2020 12:08 TheYango wrote:
Speaking of fraudsters, I saw Trump re-tweeted a James O'Keefe video earlier. A naive part of me had hoped we'd rid ourselves of that shitstain.
He will only grow more powerful with time
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On November 06 2020 12:01 TheTenthDoc wrote:Personally I think regardless of which gets called first PA deserves the MVP over GA this year. Recount, provisional, and overseas in GA will be a thing, and I think a couple decision desks literally can't call it with the numbers of outstanding votes. Though honestly I could also see it going for FL, even though the state went to Trump, given that it firmly ruled out the "Biden landslide" possibility.
A recount will change very little and will only happen if the result is within .10%.
Provisional and overseas ballots are also going to be a very small number of votes.
I think that Biden's margin will actually hold in GA.
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ABC is claiming that GA still has 16k votes left? I think most of the math in here is based on 5-6k left
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EPT
