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LP votes tend to split pretty evenly. Id imagine ranked choice would be close to 50/50.
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Philly streets are filling up with opposing protests outside the convention center
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United States10597 Posts
On November 06 2020 04:18 Wegandi wrote:LP votes tend to split pretty evenly. Id imagine ranked choice would be close to 50/50.
Really? I don't think so. Most libertarians are more economically conservative than they are socially liberal. US has always had more of a left or right unity than an auth or lib unity.
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The NV and PA numbers, along with more details on GA ballots, have nearly pushed Biden back to 90% in the prediction markets. Personally I think this may actually be an underestimate at this point (though because I am a risk averse baby I will not be placing any money down).
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United States44402 Posts
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards"
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On November 06 2020 04:16 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:09 polgas wrote:
Looking at the US national votes as an outsider:
72,444,480 votes (50.4%) Biden
68,896,526 votes (48%) Trump
Its amazing that after 4 years of stoking unrest, going after people that are trying to stave off the pandemic, losing advisers and staff, losing support from US's major allies, on top of the lying and not releasing tax returns and sexual assault allegations... and half the people still vote for Trump.
I feel like there is a lot of disinformation, ignorance, and blind partisanship going on. Voters still get led into believing that Trump would be good for the economy, or that Biden is a corrupt radical socialist. The misinformation is especially worrying. I overheard my roommate last night spouting off some right-wing conspiracy theories about the election, like how Biden is cheating with ballot stuffing, the suspiciousness of Trump winning the Florida Latino vote but not elsewhere (he likely didn't know about the Cuban vote), or how he didn't believe Kamala Harris was a natural-born citizen. I didn't want to confront him over all that, but there is a lot of BS poisoning the average voter.
Given Bidens age there is a decent percentage that youre actually voting for Harris and Harris is one of the most progressive Senators the Dems had. Never mind her recent comments. Biden to me is going to be a figurehead. Hes not running the show/party, he blows to the winds of his party and thats Sanders positions right now.
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United States10597 Posts
On November 06 2020 04:20 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:16 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 04:09 polgas wrote:
Looking at the US national votes as an outsider:
72,444,480 votes (50.4%) Biden
68,896,526 votes (48%) Trump
Its amazing that after 4 years of stoking unrest, going after people that are trying to stave off the pandemic, losing advisers and staff, losing support from US's major allies, on top of the lying and not releasing tax returns and sexual assault allegations... and half the people still vote for Trump.
I feel like there is a lot of disinformation, ignorance, and blind partisanship going on. Voters still get led into believing that Trump would be good for the economy, or that Biden is a corrupt radical socialist. The misinformation is especially worrying. I overheard my roommate last night spouting off some right-wing conspiracy theories about the election, like how Biden is cheating with ballot stuffing, the suspiciousness of Trump winning the Florida Latino vote but not elsewhere (he likely didn't know about the Cuban vote), or how he didn't believe Kamala Harris was a natural-born citizen. I didn't want to confront him over all that, but there is a lot of BS poisoning the average voter. Given Bidens age there is a decent percentage that youre actually voting for Harris and Harris is one of the most progressive Senators the Dems had. Never mind her recent comments. Biden to me is going to be a figurehead. Hes not running the show/party, he blows to the winds of his party and thats Sanders positions right now.
WHAT. Tell that to all those people of color in Cali that are locked up because all they had was some weed when she was DA. lol this is such a bad take. Wegandi, not every Dem that is slightly left of establishment dems means they're progresive lol.
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On November 06 2020 04:18 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:18 Wegandi wrote:LP votes tend to split pretty evenly. Id imagine ranked choice would be close to 50/50. Really? I don't think so. Most libertarians are more economically conservative than they are socially liberal. US has always had more of a left or right unity than an auth or lib unity.
The LP gets votes from a lot of folks not just your standard fare Misesian. The fact Trump is less warlike and anti-Nato than Biden and the D's probably means itd be like 55-45, but ya you overestimate where LP gets votes from.
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It'a laughably inaccurate to assert that the Dem Party is in any way married to Sanders' policy positions, the opposite, while still too broad, is much closer to the truth.
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United States10597 Posts
On November 06 2020 04:22 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:18 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 06 2020 04:18 Wegandi wrote:LP votes tend to split pretty evenly. Id imagine ranked choice would be close to 50/50. Really? I don't think so. Most libertarians are more economically conservative than they are socially liberal. US has always had more of a left or right unity than an auth or lib unity. The LP gets votes from a lot of folks not just your standard fare Misesian. The fact Trump is less warlike and anti-Nato than Biden and the D's probably means itd be like 55-45, but ya you overestimate where LP gets votes from.
Disagree hard. America has never been about libertarian unity or authoritarian unity. Libertarians, at least all the ones I know, voted Trump (if they didn't vote lib) in 2016. Libs don't like the Democratic party, they don't find a position with them while at least Republicans can offer them lower taxes. Agree to disagree, but Trump would've won Georgia if it were purely 2 party race.
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On November 06 2020 04:21 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:20 Wegandi wrote:On November 06 2020 04:16 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 04:09 polgas wrote:
Looking at the US national votes as an outsider:
72,444,480 votes (50.4%) Biden
68,896,526 votes (48%) Trump
Its amazing that after 4 years of stoking unrest, going after people that are trying to stave off the pandemic, losing advisers and staff, losing support from US's major allies, on top of the lying and not releasing tax returns and sexual assault allegations... and half the people still vote for Trump.
I feel like there is a lot of disinformation, ignorance, and blind partisanship going on. Voters still get led into believing that Trump would be good for the economy, or that Biden is a corrupt radical socialist. The misinformation is especially worrying. I overheard my roommate last night spouting off some right-wing conspiracy theories about the election, like how Biden is cheating with ballot stuffing, the suspiciousness of Trump winning the Florida Latino vote but not elsewhere (he likely didn't know about the Cuban vote), or how he didn't believe Kamala Harris was a natural-born citizen. I didn't want to confront him over all that, but there is a lot of BS poisoning the average voter. Given Bidens age there is a decent percentage that youre actually voting for Harris and Harris is one of the most progressive Senators the Dems had. Never mind her recent comments. Biden to me is going to be a figurehead. Hes not running the show/party, he blows to the winds of his party and thats Sanders positions right now. WHAT. Tell that to all those people of color in Cali that are locked up because all they had was some weed when she was DA. lol this is such a bad take. Wegandi, not every Dem that is slightly left of establishment dems means they're progresive lol.
Dude go look at her votes, her sponsors and cosponsors re: legislation. She has been consistently ranked by various groups (of which there are progressive equivalent to say freedom works) as one of the most progressive senators. I dont care about what her one position she held as a DA. That doesnt make one not progressive or w/e. (She has 96%+ ranking by several progressive groups)
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It's not a coincidence Democrats lobbied to remove the Green party from ballots and not Libertarians while Republicans did the opposite..
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On November 06 2020 04:20 KwarK wrote:
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards"
Sadly I don't think that's far off the mark. Seems like a fundamental weakness of democracy where the vote of a total ignoramus has the same weight as someone who puts effort into staying informed.
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United States10597 Posts
On November 06 2020 04:27 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:21 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 06 2020 04:20 Wegandi wrote:On November 06 2020 04:16 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 04:09 polgas wrote:
Looking at the US national votes as an outsider:
72,444,480 votes (50.4%) Biden
68,896,526 votes (48%) Trump
Its amazing that after 4 years of stoking unrest, going after people that are trying to stave off the pandemic, losing advisers and staff, losing support from US's major allies, on top of the lying and not releasing tax returns and sexual assault allegations... and half the people still vote for Trump.
I feel like there is a lot of disinformation, ignorance, and blind partisanship going on. Voters still get led into believing that Trump would be good for the economy, or that Biden is a corrupt radical socialist. The misinformation is especially worrying. I overheard my roommate last night spouting off some right-wing conspiracy theories about the election, like how Biden is cheating with ballot stuffing, the suspiciousness of Trump winning the Florida Latino vote but not elsewhere (he likely didn't know about the Cuban vote), or how he didn't believe Kamala Harris was a natural-born citizen. I didn't want to confront him over all that, but there is a lot of BS poisoning the average voter. Given Bidens age there is a decent percentage that youre actually voting for Harris and Harris is one of the most progressive Senators the Dems had. Never mind her recent comments. Biden to me is going to be a figurehead. Hes not running the show/party, he blows to the winds of his party and thats Sanders positions right now. WHAT. Tell that to all those people of color in Cali that are locked up because all they had was some weed when she was DA. lol this is such a bad take. Wegandi, not every Dem that is slightly left of establishment dems means they're progresive lol. Dude go look at her votes, her sponsors and cosponsors re: legislation. She has been consistently ranked by various groups (of which there are progressive equivalent to say freedom works) as one of the most progressive senators. I dont care about what her one position she held as a DA. That doesnt make one not progressive or w/e. (She has 96%+ ranking by several progressive groups)
You realize that rating groups are fairly pointless these days with the partisanship we see? All dems vote together all the time, same with republicans. Trying to use rating groups as a good source right now is pretty trash.
https://progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?house=house
Pelosi is ranked the 28th most progressive. The 2019-2020 term has her at a 100% progressive rating. lmfao. Maybe take off those conservative tinted lenses you have that makes you look at every Dem as a socialist/progressive. It'll help.
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On November 06 2020 04:28 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:20 KwarK wrote:
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards" Sadly I don't think that's far off the mark. Seems like a fundamental weakness of democracy where the vote of a total ignoramus has the same weight as someone who puts effort into staying informed.
I think Winston Churchill said something like "The best argument against democracy is a conversation with the average voter"
But he also said "Democracy is by far the worst form of government. If you disregard all others"
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On November 06 2020 04:28 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:20 KwarK wrote:
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards" Sadly I don't think that's far off the mark. Seems like a fundamental weakness of democracy where the vote of a total ignoramus has the same weight as someone who puts effort into staying informed.
I don't think following that formula has to entail sadness, there's always going to be some measure of distillation involved in making policy palatable to average individuals, the problem is that many on the left find that distillation process objectionable enough to render their public policy stances unfamiliar and wonkish. The tragedy is all of the good stuff that goes unimplemented because the policy proponent fails to build consensus due to some abstract prioritization of accuracy.
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On November 06 2020 04:28 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:20 KwarK wrote:
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards" Sadly I don't think that's far off the mark. Seems like a fundamental weakness of democracy where the vote of a total ignoramus has the same weight as someone who puts effort into staying informed.
Well that's the definition of populism. Reduce complex issues to mindless slogans, get rid of all nuances and constitutes anyone who disagrees into an ennemy.
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United States10597 Posts
PA UPDATE: Lehigh County just got updated a bit with a few votes that came in. Trump's lead now less than 1k in Lehigh, only 109k statewide. Lehigh looks like it'll flip back to Blue. The county went to Clinton by 4.7% last election.
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On November 06 2020 04:34 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 04:28 Starlightsun wrote:On November 06 2020 04:20 KwarK wrote:
Democrats really need to understand that most voters are low information voters and just don't care about knowing anything that takes longer than 10 seconds to explain. Their entire Coronavirus policy could have been "elect us and we'll force Big Pharma to release the cure". Talking about masks and R0 and lockdowns and so forth is a big turnoff for anyone who doesn't care about pandemics and the people who care about pandemics already know that shit.
Going forwards all policies should
1) Reduce a problem to an extremely basic issue
2) Describe a common sense fix for that issue
3) Make it uncontroversial
4) Make it short enough to fit on a bumper sticker
But they do not need to be in any way meaningful.
For example the new Democratic policy on abortion should be
"Killing of babies is wrong and if elected we will end the killing of babies".
The key component to this policy is that it doesn't in any way address the question of abortion because babies have already been born. Under no circumstances should that be addressed, if in doubt repeat the policy.
On foreign policy the policy should be
"Be strong and defeat our enemies #cowards" Sadly I don't think that's far off the mark. Seems like a fundamental weakness of democracy where the vote of a total ignoramus has the same weight as someone who puts effort into staying informed. I don't think following that formula has to entail sadness, there's always going to be some measure of distillation involved in making policy palatable to average individuals, the problem is that many on the left find that distillation process objectionable enough to render their public policy stances unfamiliar and wonkish. The tragedy is all of the good stuff that goes unimplemented because the policy proponent fails to build consensus due to some abstract prioritization of accuracy.
The strain of objection I side with is along the lines of that strategy leaving them (the politicians and their supporters) vulnerable to a better huckster (like what happened to Republicans)
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On November 06 2020 04:03 FlaShFTW wrote:
One more update to PA:
I talked a lot about Philly last night and the impact on Trump needing to hold some form of line before the Philly vote started coming in. When Philly was at 70% reporting, Biden had a 120k vote lead. It is now 83% with Biden having a 170k lead. Expect this vote margin to balloon to almost 300k, that's another 130k, which is already enough to push Biden over the top.
If there was an NYT needle on PA, it would be at 95%+ right now.
Where the hell do you get your numbers from ?
I see Philadephia county at 82% reporting with already +380k votes for Biden. Are you talking about the city itself ?
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EPT
