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On November 05 2020 01:58 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 01:46 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 05 2020 01:40 Wegandi wrote:
While Biden is going to win MI it's super close with James still leading. He might eek that one out. Big loss for Dems if so. Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for losing the Senate and some of the competitive races. I'm genuinely confused as to why they bothered to invest so much into Kentucky and South Carolina besides the big FU to McConnell and Graham, diverting attention and resources from Peters and Greenfield who needed it a lot more it seems. Even Collins is looking like she's being re-elected, despite all the venom against her for "betraying" her moderate background. Looking like Senate will stay 53-47 (assuming James maintains his lead - he is running quite a bit better than Trump all over) and the GOP will pick up ~10 House seats. It's not inconceivable that in 2022 the House returns to GOP (mid-term elections tend to favor the Party out of power when it comes to the House). I expect a lot of gridlock during Bidens term. I wouldn't be expecting too much progressive policies coming out of the WH with this make up.
It's Biden, we'd be silly to expect a lot of progressive policy in any scenario.
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On November 05 2020 02:00 Trainrunnef wrote:Nyt reporting that PA may go to Biden. Mail in votes are trending 70+% biden. www.nytimes.com
Biden has won that much is clear at this point. The only exciting race left is James bid for the MI Senate seat. That's gonna be real close.
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On November 05 2020 02:00 Trainrunnef wrote:Nyt reporting that PA may go to Biden. Mail in votes are trending 70+% biden. www.nytimes.com
That fits with the early party registration info...if that really holds the only uncalled state Trump can carry is North Carolina.
Now to watch how his base reacts as he spins conspiracy after conspiracy.
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On November 05 2020 02:01 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 01:58 Wegandi wrote:On November 05 2020 01:46 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 05 2020 01:40 Wegandi wrote:
While Biden is going to win MI it's super close with James still leading. He might eek that one out. Big loss for Dems if so. Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for losing the Senate and some of the competitive races. I'm genuinely confused as to why they bothered to invest so much into Kentucky and South Carolina besides the big FU to McConnell and Graham, diverting attention and resources from Peters and Greenfield who needed it a lot more it seems. Even Collins is looking like she's being re-elected, despite all the venom against her for "betraying" her moderate background. Looking like Senate will stay 53-47 (assuming James maintains his lead - he is running quite a bit better than Trump all over) and the GOP will pick up ~10 House seats. It's not inconceivable that in 2022 the House returns to GOP (mid-term elections tend to favor the Party out of power when it comes to the House). I expect a lot of gridlock during Bidens term. I wouldn't be expecting too much progressive policies coming out of the WH with this make up. It's Biden, we'd be silly to expect a lot of progressive policy in any scenario.
His VP also had the most liberal voting record in the Senate and his policies have drifted that way in the last few years. Biden is nothing if not shifty as shit. The Dems are moving progressive and he moves with the wind. GOP holding the Senate will put a damper on things and with a more narrow Dem lead in the House as well.
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The irony in all of this was that the world would have known the results had GOP in those states to allow the counting of mail in ballots as they arrived.
But they refused in order sow chaos in case such an event like this happened.
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On November 05 2020 02:04 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 02:01 Nebuchad wrote:On November 05 2020 01:58 Wegandi wrote:On November 05 2020 01:46 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 05 2020 01:40 Wegandi wrote:
While Biden is going to win MI it's super close with James still leading. He might eek that one out. Big loss for Dems if so. Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for losing the Senate and some of the competitive races. I'm genuinely confused as to why they bothered to invest so much into Kentucky and South Carolina besides the big FU to McConnell and Graham, diverting attention and resources from Peters and Greenfield who needed it a lot more it seems. Even Collins is looking like she's being re-elected, despite all the venom against her for "betraying" her moderate background. Looking like Senate will stay 53-47 (assuming James maintains his lead - he is running quite a bit better than Trump all over) and the GOP will pick up ~10 House seats. It's not inconceivable that in 2022 the House returns to GOP (mid-term elections tend to favor the Party out of power when it comes to the House). I expect a lot of gridlock during Bidens term. I wouldn't be expecting too much progressive policies coming out of the WH with this make up. It's Biden, we'd be silly to expect a lot of progressive policy in any scenario. His VP also had the most liberal voting record in the Senate and his policies have drifted that way in the last few years. Biden is nothing if not shifty as shit. The Dems are moving progressive and he moves with the wind. GOP holding the Senate will put a damper on things and with a more narrow Dem lead in the House as well.
I don't think you truly believe this so I'm not going to go into details.
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It's always amusing to see that line about Harris, which puts her to left of Warren and Sanders. She didn't run on that in her campaign for a reason : it's unbelievable on its face.
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Looks like Biden has done it though you never can be sure.
Guess he wasnt that bad of a candidate after all;)
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So apparently votes are still being counted in Arizona, only 86% of votes have been tallied. Not 98%.
Biden still holds a comfortable lead though.
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Just repeating this point and posting the chart since it's nuts. Highest turnout since 1900 in the US.
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United States43990 Posts
On November 05 2020 02:04 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 02:01 Nebuchad wrote:On November 05 2020 01:58 Wegandi wrote:On November 05 2020 01:46 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 05 2020 01:40 Wegandi wrote:
While Biden is going to win MI it's super close with James still leading. He might eek that one out. Big loss for Dems if so. Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for losing the Senate and some of the competitive races. I'm genuinely confused as to why they bothered to invest so much into Kentucky and South Carolina besides the big FU to McConnell and Graham, diverting attention and resources from Peters and Greenfield who needed it a lot more it seems. Even Collins is looking like she's being re-elected, despite all the venom against her for "betraying" her moderate background. Looking like Senate will stay 53-47 (assuming James maintains his lead - he is running quite a bit better than Trump all over) and the GOP will pick up ~10 House seats. It's not inconceivable that in 2022 the House returns to GOP (mid-term elections tend to favor the Party out of power when it comes to the House). I expect a lot of gridlock during Bidens term. I wouldn't be expecting too much progressive policies coming out of the WH with this make up. It's Biden, we'd be silly to expect a lot of progressive policy in any scenario. His VP also had the most liberal voting record in the Senate and his policies have drifted that way in the last few years. Biden is nothing if not shifty as shit. The Dems are moving progressive and he moves with the wind. GOP holding the Senate will put a damper on things and with a more narrow Dem lead in the House as well.
This claim about Harris is one of those things that shouldn't pass the smell test. You should read it and go "wait, more than Bernie, really? that doesn't sound right, wasn't everyone bitching on the left about how right wing she was". I know I did the first time I heard it.
So I tracked down where the claim was coming from. Mostly from Trump's twitter and other Conservative mouthpieces but originally from here.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/kamala_harris/412678/report-card/2019
Looks pretty neutral but the problem isn't the impartiality of the scorecard but with the narrowness of the criteria used and the bad methodology.
Let's address the first. That link I provided above, which is the link from which all of this "Harris is the most liberal Senator" stuff springs, is the archived page from 2019 that looks only at 2019. It's not the data that govtrack is displaying on their tracker, found here
https://www.govtrack.us/about/analysis#ideology
If you go to their website and look up the most liberal senators then you'll find Sanders, Gillibrand, and Merkley ahead of her which is, honestly, pretty much what you'd expect. The ideology tracker on the website that is the source for the claim that she's the leftmost senator does not list her as the leftmost senator. You have to go to an archived graph from a specific date range to conclude that during that narrow period she was.
The second issue is the methodology used to assign left and right. It's not actually measuring beliefs, or even bills voted on, just bills supported. Furthermore it doesn't measure the political content of those bills, only how likely they are to be bipartisan. Consider the current example of coronavirus stimulus. The Republican plan of giving direct payments to citizens is viewed as a far right proposal because Democrats don't support it because they believe it's inadequate. But obviously that's not an accurate portrayal. A senator who likes to sponsor symbolic bills with no chance of being voted on to signal intent to voters will appear hyperpartisan but they're not actually doing anything and it's entirely possible that, were a vote possible, they would not be willing to sponsor those bills.
Hopefully from now on you'll refer to Harris as the 4th most liberal senator according to a very flawed methodology, rather than the most liberal senator. The claim is weird, it doesn't sound right, and if you trace it back to the source the source clearly disagrees with the claim being made.
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lol what is this bullshit
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html
Timing of results:Because of an error in a data feed from Edison Research, a previous version of Arizona results briefly showed an incorrect amount of vote that had been counted. The error has been fixed, and the map reflects the current state of the count.
Presidential results by county
We received more votes from Pinal County. According to turnout estimates, around 440,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 80,000 votes left to report. Nov. 4, 2020
So AZ in play again...
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On November 05 2020 02:05 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Biden takes Maine.
Hopefully that performance carries over to the senate race there
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United States43990 Posts
On November 05 2020 02:06 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 02:04 Wegandi wrote:On November 05 2020 02:01 Nebuchad wrote:On November 05 2020 01:58 Wegandi wrote:On November 05 2020 01:46 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 05 2020 01:40 Wegandi wrote:
While Biden is going to win MI it's super close with James still leading. He might eek that one out. Big loss for Dems if so. Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for losing the Senate and some of the competitive races. I'm genuinely confused as to why they bothered to invest so much into Kentucky and South Carolina besides the big FU to McConnell and Graham, diverting attention and resources from Peters and Greenfield who needed it a lot more it seems. Even Collins is looking like she's being re-elected, despite all the venom against her for "betraying" her moderate background. Looking like Senate will stay 53-47 (assuming James maintains his lead - he is running quite a bit better than Trump all over) and the GOP will pick up ~10 House seats. It's not inconceivable that in 2022 the House returns to GOP (mid-term elections tend to favor the Party out of power when it comes to the House). I expect a lot of gridlock during Bidens term. I wouldn't be expecting too much progressive policies coming out of the WH with this make up. It's Biden, we'd be silly to expect a lot of progressive policy in any scenario. His VP also had the most liberal voting record in the Senate and his policies have drifted that way in the last few years. Biden is nothing if not shifty as shit. The Dems are moving progressive and he moves with the wind. GOP holding the Senate will put a damper on things and with a more narrow Dem lead in the House as well. I don't think you truly believe this so I'm not going to go into details.
The claim about Harris isn't baseless, it's just not supported by the evidence. There's a reason that people in conservative circles keep repeating it, but not a good reason. See my post above.
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On November 05 2020 01:44 Emnjay808 wrote:
Man Hawaii voted Blue pretty heavily, not a surprise but I guess it’s more of a party vote than a candidate vote. Any trump supporters here don’t necessarily support the republican party but liked who Trump was as a candidate.
Just my analysis. Since there was A LOT of active Trump supporters and barely any Biden.
Man what part of Hawaii do you live in? Total opposite for me, everyone I know is against Trump. I'm in rural Maui.
So glad to wake up to this news. Went to sleep thinking Biden was toast.
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Susan Collins also isn't out of the woods entirely yet. If she gets <50% of the vote, then it goes to a RCV runoff. (She's at 51% with 85% of the vote reported).
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Miami had about 25% mail in votes not sent in to the elections office. Literally just sitting there. FL and their fuckery is never surprising.
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Will they still be counted now or are they simply lost?
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EPT
