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While bettor odds are pretty useless as anything but gauges of perception, they look to have shifted back to Biden pretty heavily (bottomed out at 25.8% Biden, now at 81.5%). Especially with the formal WI win.
There could still be another swing towards Trump if a big shoe drops (I'm mostly thinking wonkery in Nevada or Arizona here). Or, obviously, a cratering out of his chances if Biden wins Michigan. Personally I feel like Biden carrying Michigan should already be baked into people's expectations pretty heavily at this point (still only 74% in Wayne and he has a pretty substantial raw # of votes lead with 92% reporting) but I'm not sure it is.
Edit: I also appreciate that Betfair allows you to bet on Pence or Hillary Clinton being president for some huge returns.
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On November 05 2020 02:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Miami had about 25% mail in votes not sent in to the elections office. Literally just sitting there. FL and their fuckery is never surprising.
I thought I read something yesterday that all outstanding ballots were delivered by USPS before yesterday evening, were those OTHER ballots ?
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The 85th most progressive out of a tiny, 100 population size? Count me convinced. She's a real gh.
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On November 05 2020 02:30 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 02:19 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Miami had about 25% mail in votes not sent in to the elections office. Literally just sitting there. FL and their fuckery is never surprising. I thought I read something yesterday that all outstanding ballots were delivered by USPS before yesterday evening, were those OTHER ballots ?
So... what if the pollsters were right and the only reason it wasn't a landslide is the vast amount of fuckery in states the Democrats should've won. That's kinda hard to get out of a poll.
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United States44208 Posts
Govtrack lists her as 4th, not 1st, if you go to their main rankings page on the website. You have to specifically enter the url that takes you to the archived graph for 2019 only to get it to show her as 1st. It also doesn’t measure leftism.
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Pennsylvania at +8 Trump with 80% counted. Looks like Biden could take the state convincingly if the spread keeps narrowing at that rate.
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On November 05 2020 02:34 Nevuk wrote:
The 85th most progressive out of a tiny, 100 population size? Count me convinced. She's a real gh.
Do you know what percentile means?
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The spoiler disinformation banner on Trump's tweets on twitter are really satisfying. I wonder if they won't ban him after the election. That would make my day, but I guess they'll never have the balls.
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On November 05 2020 02:42 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The spoiler disinformation banner on Trump's tweets on twitter are really satisfying. I wonder if they won't ban him after the election. That would make my day, but I guess they'll never have the balls.
Is Trump continuing to freak out?
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Doubt they would do that. If Biden wins I can totally see Trump going on the warpath and trying to pull a Grover Cleveland in 2024.
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Percent counted seems to be nebulous enough as to be unreliable. Thinking a Biden win seems solid enough to be a comfortable assumption, tenuous enough as to spawn a permanent "stolen election" support base for Trump.
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If peters can hold the Senate is not done just yet. It would be long odds but if they can snag NC or Maine and win the GA runoff we at 50 50. Not impossible but not looking good
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On November 05 2020 02:43 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Doubt they would do that. If Biden wins I can totally see Trump going on the warpath and trying to pull a Grover Cleveland in 2024.
When Trump loses, he's not going to have time to campaign.
He has so many legal battles ahead of him personally, criminally at the state and federal level, and many civil suits he's slowed due to being president (Summer Zervos, the rape case where's refused to provide dna, etc.).
The news that Deutsche bank is going to recall all of his loans if he loses means that even if those wouldn't take up his time, he may wind up literally homeless. It's also an amount I don't think he can recover on gofundme or his fans donations (400-500 million).
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On November 05 2020 02:43 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Doubt they would do that. If Biden wins I can totally see Trump going on the warpath and trying to pull a Grover Cleveland in 2024.
The problem is Grover Cleveland was incredibly popular (and also one of the best President's the US has ever had while Trump....ya...not so much). Trump isn't going to run in 2024 (he'll also be nearly 80 then).
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I wonder if Trump's cries of fraud might lead to investigations that end up exposing Republican fraud.
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On November 05 2020 02:47 Shingi11 wrote:
If peters can hold the Senate is not done just yet. It would be long odds but if they can snag NC or Maine and win the GA runoff we at 50 50. Not impossible but not looking good
Yeah, we might actually see the merits of ranked choice in Maine. Pretty nuts.
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I'm glad to see the record turnout. No matter how it turns out, it's a good sign.
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There's also a huge difference between a 51-49 GOP senate and a 53-47 senate. In the first, they can't even grant Collins, Romney, or Murkowski their token "moderate" votes.
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EPT
