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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 24 2020 22:21 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2020 21:03 DarkGamer wrote:On March 24 2020 18:35 ggrrg wrote:On March 24 2020 15:41 Harris1st wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Haven't been following this thread closely these last few days, so I'm not sure if this has been posted yet. Anyway, there is an interview with a German doctor (who also wrote a book H5N1, SARS and others) saying many (almost half!) of the tests are false positives. So far so good. Then he goes on about how treating Covid is wrong in almost all cases. People just need to rest 2 weeks and will most likely surive. His ground for this statement is a wrong treatment of a 50 yr old male who got stuffed with pretty much every pill there is until his immun system gave up and he died. He also thinks this may be the case in Italy and why their mortality rate is so much higher than everywhere else. I'm looking for more sources Right now I can only give you this German YT EDIT: This is not supposed so be some conspiracy , tin foil hat thingy. Just wanted to share this It is quite sad to see how easily all kinds of buffoons can spread their mental diarrhea over the internet. In 3 days, 650k people just became a tiny bit dumber by watching this video… I could write an entire essay evaluating manipulation technics just based on that 24 minute clip. My conclusion would probably be that the doc can learn quite a bit from his hosts. His statements are too jumpy and do not manage to establish even a superficially logical train of thought. One needs to already be predisposed to buying the bullshit he is selling to believe him. The show itself is on a whole different level. It is a non-stop chain of subtle pricks and prods at the viewers’ world views. It does not go overboard with loaded statements, but gradually nudges the viewer in certain directions to subliminally instill particular ideas. I still have to admit that I lost it at a certain point, when the show host asked “Is the media critical enough in times of crisis?”. Very rich coming from RT’s propaganda department. Im glad someone is seeing clearly here. Beside that, its just characteristically how i directly prove with facts that a statement is wrong just to see that no one cares and the same person tells us that its always good to hear different points of view. NO ITS NOT. Facts dont lie. We should always seperate facts with fiction. Excuse me? That's a really high horse you are sitting on mate. There can be multiple reasons for false positives, just human error alone. Anyway, I posted the video more because of case he is discussing and I really don't wanna defend his opinion of what this doctor thinks about the testing. A few pages back people were wondering what the difference between Italy and other countries is and the "treatment" might be one of them. I don't know and I don't pretend to know
Its not my horse. I quoted the inventor and executor of the validity check. I guess he knows best, right? I never said that human errors cant occur. Your reasoning doesnt fit the discussion
Its well known what are the factors for different mortality rates. U just have to listen to the experts (not the Conspiracy theorists).
1. Test groups: For example in italian the most tested people were the ones in the hospitals. Very often old people and often with pre-existing illness. Therefore the fall mortality is pretty high. In germany there are much more younger people tested. They often had no pre-existing illness. Therefore the fall mortality is far lower. Btw its very important that these numbers right now are NOT Infection mortality but fall mortality. If you dont unterstand the difference you cant understand the numbers AT ALL.
2. Healthcare system: Very complex theme but the point is that if the health system is overwhelmed, the mortality rate increases rapidly as triage occurs. thats the case in italy.
btw experts assume that the mortality rate is 1 percent. that's 5-10x more than a flu and without the collapse of the health system! i hope u get the point.
and experts also warn against spreading every theory. that only makes things worse and unsettles people. hence my appeal to stay with facts.
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Canada8990 Posts
I'd be interested to know how much of an impact it has on the ground, someone is from India here?
I would think for most isolation's more a luxury than a burden there.
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On March 25 2020 01:23 DarkGamer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2020 22:21 Harris1st wrote:On March 24 2020 21:03 DarkGamer wrote:On March 24 2020 18:35 ggrrg wrote:On March 24 2020 15:41 Harris1st wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Haven't been following this thread closely these last few days, so I'm not sure if this has been posted yet. Anyway, there is an interview with a German doctor (who also wrote a book H5N1, SARS and others) saying many (almost half!) of the tests are false positives. So far so good. Then he goes on about how treating Covid is wrong in almost all cases. People just need to rest 2 weeks and will most likely surive. His ground for this statement is a wrong treatment of a 50 yr old male who got stuffed with pretty much every pill there is until his immun system gave up and he died. He also thinks this may be the case in Italy and why their mortality rate is so much higher than everywhere else. I'm looking for more sources Right now I can only give you this German YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzTr_RjtgUkEDIT: This is not supposed so be some conspiracy , tin foil hat thingy. Just wanted to share this It is quite sad to see how easily all kinds of buffoons can spread their mental diarrhea over the internet. In 3 days, 650k people just became a tiny bit dumber by watching this video… I could write an entire essay evaluating manipulation technics just based on that 24 minute clip. My conclusion would probably be that the doc can learn quite a bit from his hosts. His statements are too jumpy and do not manage to establish even a superficially logical train of thought. One needs to already be predisposed to buying the bullshit he is selling to believe him. The show itself is on a whole different level. It is a non-stop chain of subtle pricks and prods at the viewers’ world views. It does not go overboard with loaded statements, but gradually nudges the viewer in certain directions to subliminally instill particular ideas. I still have to admit that I lost it at a certain point, when the show host asked “Is the media critical enough in times of crisis?”. Very rich coming from RT’s propaganda department. Im glad someone is seeing clearly here. Beside that, its just characteristically how i directly prove with facts that a statement is wrong just to see that no one cares and the same person tells us that its always good to hear different points of view. NO ITS NOT. Facts dont lie. We should always seperate facts with fiction. Excuse me? That's a really high horse you are sitting on mate. There can be multiple reasons for false positives, just human error alone. Anyway, I posted the video more because of case he is discussing and I really don't wanna defend his opinion of what this doctor thinks about the testing. A few pages back people were wondering what the difference between Italy and other countries is and the "treatment" might be one of them. I don't know and I don't pretend to know Its not my horse. I quoted the inventor and executor of the validity check. I guess he knows best, right? I never said that human errors cant occur. Your reasoning doesnt fit the discussion Its well known what are the factors for different mortality rates. U just have to listen to the experts (not the Conspiracy theorists). 1. Test groups: For example in italian the most tested people were the ones in the hospitals. Very often old people and often with pre-existing illness. Therefore the fall mortality is pretty high. In germany there are much more younger people tested. They often had no pre-existing illness. Therefore the fall mortality is far lower. Btw its very important that these numbers right now are NOT Infection mortality but fall mortality. If you dont unterstand the difference you cant understand the numbers AT ALL. 2. Healthcare system: Very complex theme but the point is that if the health system is overwhelmed, the mortality rate increases rapidly as triage occurs. thats the case in italy. btw experts assume that the mortality rate is 1 percent. that's 5-10x more than a flu and without the collapse of the health system! i hope u get the point. and experts also warn against spreading every theory. that only makes things worse and unsettles people. hence my appeal to stay with facts.
I said it like three times already, I'm NOT even DISCUSSING the TESTS (since you love capitals so much)
I agree with you, that the guy who invented the test knows more about it than some other random doctor.
He quotes the Lancet, which THE most renowned medical journal. Seems to me these are experts, Don't you think?
It's not a theory, it's a case study... seriously dude.
Anyway, RKI numbers at 27k now with the new data that went in late I guess
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4
Weather is still too good it seems, too many people on the streets still. This could end badly 
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Someone posted the question as to why no patients from Italy were treated in Germany.
According to the newspaper die Zeit, there are eight Italians being treated in saxony at the moment. All in all I found only find less than 15 such cases in total from France and Italy.
Though over the next days more critical patients are to be transported to clinics all over the country.
As to the important question: why only now, I am not able to give an answer.
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Super disappointing how many people are bringing their families/roommates/SOs with them grocery shopping. god damn. complete fucking idiots.
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One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost.
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On March 25 2020 04:54 ChristianS wrote:
One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost.
Sounds like you've got a cough and a little sweat on your brow, you sure you are feeling okay?
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On March 25 2020 04:54 ChristianS wrote:
One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost.
If I was in your situation, I'd keep working unless you or your wife have actual lung issues. My understanding is that even if you are immunosuppressed, it just makes you more likely to get it, not more likely to die. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
Assuming you're in your 30s, you are basically guaranteed tons of medical treatment since you are #1 priority. I think the disadvantages of quitting a job are just too high.
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On March 25 2020 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:
Super disappointing how many people are bringing their families/roommates/SOs with them grocery shopping. god damn. complete fucking idiots.
Bringing their kids is sometimes necessary since they have no SO or relatives to help weatch at home. So I wouldnt be too quick to judge.
Lockdown went in effect officially today in Hawaii. Significantly lower traffic and stores are a lot emptier now. Hope it keeps up till we get better case numbers: 3000 tested, 77 confirmed. 1 death (pre existing conditions)
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On March 25 2020 05:21 Emnjay808 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:
Super disappointing how many people are bringing their families/roommates/SOs with them grocery shopping. god damn. complete fucking idiots. Bringing their kids is sometimes necessary since they have no SO or relatives to help weatch at home. So I wouldnt be too quick to judge. Lockdown went in effect officially today in Hawaii. Significantly lower traffic and stores are a lot emptier now. Hope it keeps up till we get better case numbers: 3000 tested, 77 confirmed. 1 death (pre existing conditions)
I saw mom, dad and 2 kids at the store while picking up a prescription. I have zero hesitation to judge them. And I saw lots of pairs of people at the store. All idiots.
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First three members of the family tested positive. Luckily it isn't bad enough for them to be send to the hospital so they are just in quarantine. According to my cousin, quote, "it feels like the flu times two". His wife is mostly symptom free and child completely free already.
Been running the numbers in Denmark for ~10 days, the last three days it looked like the curve was flattening - it even didn't fit an exponential growth at some point - but today it completely broke... If it stays on my latest model we can be in big shit early to mid april. :-/
Really hope I've somehow totally forgotten all I learned in statistical modelling and/or my SAS code is faulty. A few day I was cautiously optimistic, now I'm fully pessimistic. Going to check with a senior statistician tomorrow.
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On March 25 2020 05:25 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 05:21 Emnjay808 wrote:On March 25 2020 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:
Super disappointing how many people are bringing their families/roommates/SOs with them grocery shopping. god damn. complete fucking idiots. Bringing their kids is sometimes necessary since they have no SO or relatives to help weatch at home. So I wouldnt be too quick to judge. Lockdown went in effect officially today in Hawaii. Significantly lower traffic and stores are a lot emptier now. Hope it keeps up till we get better case numbers: 3000 tested, 77 confirmed. 1 death (pre existing conditions) I saw mom, dad and 2 kids at the store while picking up a prescription. I have zero hesitation to judge them. And I saw lots of pairs of people at the store. All idiots.
ya in that case its pretty bad. my state has a lot of single mothers so my heart goes out to them. especially when they have to store hop to find baby wipes/diapers.
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On March 25 2020 05:09 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 04:54 ChristianS wrote:
One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost. Sounds like you've got a cough and a little sweat on your brow, you sure you are feeling okay?
This post gives me an IgnE-like feeling, in that I’ve read it front to back >10 times, all the words and concepts seem simple enough, and yet I have no idea what you are trying to convey in writing it. Is it a joke? A genuine expression of concern? A reference to something and I just missed the reference? Much like with IgnE, I get a strong feeling that it’s probably obvious and I’m just unable to understand somehow.
To everyone else: I appreciate the thoughts and advice! My thinking right now is that the job market is going to be tough enough (and medical insurance important enough) that I should stick it out. Working from home just isn’t an option for a lab job, but if I wanted to I could stay in the lab the whole day and probably minimize chances for exposure. Our lab works with biohazardous material anyway, so we have engineering controls to maintain air flows and such - cubicles and the break room are probably the highest-risk spaces. I and everyone else wear gloves and other PPE before touching most stuff, and I could sanitize every keyboard before using it if I wanted to.
That said, if my choices were keep working with 100% chance of infection, or indefinite unpaid leave without losing medical benefits, I’d definitely take the leave.
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On March 25 2020 05:45 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 05:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 25 2020 04:54 ChristianS wrote:
One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost. Sounds like you've got a cough and a little sweat on your brow, you sure you are feeling okay? This post gives me an IgnE-like feeling, in that I’ve read it front to back >10 times, all the words and concepts seem simple enough, and yet I have no idea what you are trying to convey in writing it. Is it a joke? A genuine expression of concern? A reference to something and I just missed the reference? Much like with IgnE, I get a strong feeling that it’s probably obvious and I’m just unable to understand somehow. To everyone else: I appreciate the thoughts and advice! My thinking right now is that the job market is going to be tough enough (and medical insurance important enough) that I should stick it out. Working from home just isn’t an option for a lab job, but if I wanted to I could stay in the lab the whole day and probably minimize chances for exposure. Our lab works with biohazardous material anyway, so we have engineering controls to maintain air flows and such - cubicles and the break room are probably the highest-risk spaces. I and everyone else wear gloves and other PPE before touching most stuff, and I could sanitize every keyboard before using it if I wanted to. That said, if my choices were keep working with 100% chance of infection, or indefinite unpaid leave without losing medical benefits, I’d definitely take the leave.
He is telling you to tell your boss that you feel sick. There's basically zero reason for him or her to verify given the state of things and you can stay home. This strategy works very well if you're able to work from home and your company is dragging their feet. For a lab job like you have the math doesn't really work the same because you have to take PTO or sick leave or something.
If you're out on leave and your boss needs to lay off one person is that now you?
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Lalalaland34503 Posts
Being immunosuppressed means you're far more likely to get much more sick if you catch it. You are also more likely to present with atypical symptoms - there are reports of immunosuppressed patients presenting without fevers/coughs, and instead with odd symptoms like loss of smell/taste. This makes it easier for you to slip by undiagnosed for longer. If you are immunosuppressed I would definitely consider quitting a job to save your life if they won't work with you.
In the UK, all significantly immunosuppressed people have been advised to self-isolate for 12 weeks, even without symptoms. That includes people on long term steroids or certain drugs for rheumatoid arthritis or inflammatory bowel disease. I think guidelines for pregnant women are currently still in the air.
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On March 25 2020 05:51 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2020 05:45 ChristianS wrote:On March 25 2020 05:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 25 2020 04:54 ChristianS wrote:
One of the themes I’ve noticed is people finding their breaking point on things they thought they would never do. Close your restaurant indefinitely? Cancel the first several months of the F1 season? Postpone the olympics? A lot of people thought they would “never” do a lot of stuff until it came down to it.
Unfortunately, by the time they find out what their breaking point is, they often wish they had realized the inevitable and broken a lot sooner. F1 didn’t cancel the Australian GP until a bunch of people flew in and several tested positive. I’m pretty sure my work won’t shut the site down until multiple employees test positive and it’s clear they got it at work.
With that in mind, maybe you guys have some input on this: what should my breaking point be for quitting my job/requesting indefinite unpaid leave if my job keeps asking us to come in and it’s clear we’re likely to get sick at work? Potentially relevant info: my wife is somewhat immunosuppressed from getting plasmapheresis once every 3 weeks; I could probably afford my mortgage for 2-3 months without income by racking up credit card debt, but losing health insurance would be expensive in ways I don’t even know how to estimate. I think I’d basically have to sign up for COBRA no matter the cost. Sounds like you've got a cough and a little sweat on your brow, you sure you are feeling okay? This post gives me an IgnE-like feeling, in that I’ve read it front to back >10 times, all the words and concepts seem simple enough, and yet I have no idea what you are trying to convey in writing it. Is it a joke? A genuine expression of concern? A reference to something and I just missed the reference? Much like with IgnE, I get a strong feeling that it’s probably obvious and I’m just unable to understand somehow. To everyone else: I appreciate the thoughts and advice! My thinking right now is that the job market is going to be tough enough (and medical insurance important enough) that I should stick it out. Working from home just isn’t an option for a lab job, but if I wanted to I could stay in the lab the whole day and probably minimize chances for exposure. Our lab works with biohazardous material anyway, so we have engineering controls to maintain air flows and such - cubicles and the break room are probably the highest-risk spaces. I and everyone else wear gloves and other PPE before touching most stuff, and I could sanitize every keyboard before using it if I wanted to. That said, if my choices were keep working with 100% chance of infection, or indefinite unpaid leave without losing medical benefits, I’d definitely take the leave. He is telling you to tell your boss that you feel sick. There's basically zero reason for him or her to verify given the state of things and you can stay home. This strategy works very well if you're able to work from home and your company is dragging their feet. For a lab job like you have the math doesn't really work the same because you have to take PTO or sick leave or something. If you're out on leave and your boss needs to lay off one person is that now you?
PTO is all well and good except I only have 10 sick days for the year and I’ve already used some. This year is probably different but in the past HR has gotten pretty obnoxious about people trying to take unpaid sick days after they’ve used their 10. I could file for unpaid sick leave (there’s a federal form you can fill out) but that might be harder if I’m not currently sick, just trying to avoid catching it.
I don’t know if I’d be more likely to get fired? Firing people is a whole process right now, none of the managers want to fire even grossly incompetent people because there’s a hiring freeze and everybody’s already understaffed. On merit, I think my boss would probably wanna fire quite a few other people before me, but it’s possible corporate would be making the call about who to fire (er, lay off, technically) because all the managers are insisting all their employees are exceptional and essential. In that case, you could imagine corporate seeing someone on indefinite unpaid leave and think “well obviously that person isn’t essential, fire them.”
Worth mentioning that the word “immunosuppressed” probably calls something more extreme to mind than what my wife is. Hr doctors don’t seem to think she needs to take any special precautions, and she’s been like this for a few years without any major issues. She caught the same flu I did earlier this year, and maybe took a couple more days than me to fight it off, but her doctors didn’t even seem worried about her being sick. I think her immunosuppression is a lot more mild than someone, say, taking immunosuppressants after a liver transplant or something.
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In the US quitting often disqualifies one from unemployment benefits, whereas getting fired does not. Keep that in mind. Especially since most of the speculation on the emergency assistance package is that the money is going to be fed through unemployment (and possibly keeping people not at work on payroll)
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EPT
