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On October 23 2020 06:31 Lmui wrote:
I didn't realize how bad it's gotten in Europe. Holyshit.
France has 41,622 cases reported today.
That's equivalent on a per capita basis to USA having 205k daily cases.
It's pretty goddamn far out of control.
By that metric, Czechia and Belgium beat them... According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and my simple calculations, Belgium had 478k daily cases and Czechia 472k. Sounds crazy and it is. I'm sure their death numbers will spike in a few weeks if not days.
On October 24 2020 15:58 food wrote:I'd love some analysis as far as why some of these measures failed in Europe. Is it poor compliance? Partying and spreading to family members? Do people gather a lot in general? There was a really nice study published in JAMA before this all started, concluding that 3-ply surgical masks offer a sufficient protection against viral particles. I really think wearing rags and bandanas instead of surgical masks makes a world of difference. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
Mix of different things, there are too many I think. Like Corona started to get old for people that like to go out, especially since the numbers were going down until not too long ago. So there were things like anti Corona demonstrations (at least in Germany) and people got careless and dumb. Also I guess how mandatory masks are is something that differs in every country as well, in some you get fined if you don't wear one at public transportation, while others have different enforcements if any at all.
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In Belgium we came out of lockdown when we still had ~80 new cases per day. We never went below that number. We have a 11-12 million population for reference.
Life was pretty much back to normal with the exception of wearing masks everywhere, when tourists came back from their July vacations we started going up again and took too long to reinstate measures.
And now we'll soon have a full lockdown again 
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On October 24 2020 15:58 food wrote:I'd love some analysis as far as why some of these measures failed in Europe. Is it poor compliance? Partying and spreading to family members? Do people gather a lot in general? There was a really nice study published in JAMA before this all started, concluding that 3-ply surgical masks offer a sufficient protection against viral particles. I really think wearing rags and bandanas instead of surgical masks makes a world of difference. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
Well, my anecdotal evidence is as follows:
- public transport less crowded compared to a year ago but still crowded (and winter is still to come, where people like me switch from bike to train)
- regional and long distance trains vary from nearly empty to absolutely packed (in summertime), but less busy most of times
- people give way to maintain distance rather seldomly, almost never (was more prevalent in april/may
- masks are worn indoors and on public transport most of times (way better compliance than april/may)
- parties outdoors occur at least as much if not more regularly before (could also be observation bias on my part)
- drunk people don't follow rules
in sum, my gut feeling is, that people got back to things as much as they could where I live (big city), while using masks where legally required.
I haven't seen many people disobeying guidance / regulation apart from on the news, but that's also due to my relatively remote location. From friends in the city centre I know different perspectives.
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On October 23 2020 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 05:30 Slydie wrote:On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Explain how Spain got into this mess, then. I promise, you will have a very hard finding if they had any effect at all. The problem is that going universal introduces masks in a lot of situations where the virus never spread in the first place. The Norwegian experts are afraid imposing masks would make people be more relaxed about distancing and use them wrong, and bother have certainly been the case in Spain. The outcome of an entire nation is much more complex than whether they tell people to wear masks or not. It's quite simple to see how wearing a mask (or simply covering a sneeze or cough) reduces the spread of infectious particles. As to how people react to policies, that's more cultural. Vietnam is an example of a much poorer nation outperforming pretty much the entire western world and masks were certainly part of that. Vietnam May Have the Most Effective Response to Covid-19More from the Health section of UN news: Show nested quote +“Despite a new wave which began on 25 July which Viet Nam is now also in the process of bringing under effective control, it is globally recognized that Viet Nam demonstrated one of the world’s most successful responses to the COVID-19 pandemic between January and April 16. After that date, no cases of local transmission were recorded for 99 consecutive days.
There were less than 400 cases of infection across the country during that period, most of them imported, and zero deaths, a remarkable accomplishment considering the country’s population of 96 million people and the fact that it shares a 1,450 km land border with China. They also never had a nationwide lockdown. Turns out having a functional and trustworthy government is very helpful. Show nested quote +While there was never a nationwide lockdown, some restrictive physical distancing measures were implemented throughout the country. On 1 April 2020, the Prime Minister issued a nationwide two week physical distancing directive, which was extended by a week in major cities and hotspots: people were advised to stay at home, non-essential businesses were requested to close, and public transportation was limited.
Such measures were so successful that, by early May, following two weeks without a locally confirmed case, schools and businesses resumed their operations and people could return to regular routines. Green One UN House, the home of most UN agencies in Viet Nam, remained open throughout this period, with the Resident Coordinator, WHO Representative and approximately 200 UN staff and consultants physically in the office throughout this period, to provide vital support to the Government and people of Viet Nam.
Notably, the Vietnamese public had been exceptionally compliant with government directives and advice, partly as a result of trust built up thanks to real time, transparent communication from the Ministry of Health, supported by the WHO and other UN agencies. news.un.orgShow nested quote +On October 23 2020 05:49 LegalLord wrote:On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Of course, that doesn't preclude the fact that physical distancing is by far more important than masks in stopping the spread. Of course.
People love to point out how masks "obviously" are the reason why Asian countries are dealing so well with the virus. However, there are no studies out there which support that claim. As every country has a different culture and does a wide range of measures, it is far to simplistic to single out masks as the key. I think Spain has showed that near universal use of masks can do next to nothing for stopping this virus in the west.
It is quite logical. First of all, a virus is so small it can easily go through and around a face mask, so they offer nothing by false sense of security. Furthermore, the most "shocking" examples usually include sneezing someone directly in the face or out in the air indoors. Sure, in that case a mask is very effective, but how often does that really happen? In the end, correct use is virtually impossible to achieve.
Denmark is jumping on the mask train now, even though some experts know perfectly well it is unlikely to make any difference.
In Europe, I am curious about which measures work the best, closing bars early, limiting social gatherings and travel restrictions seem to be the general name of the game. If there is a clear way around another lockdown to not overload the healthcare system it is fantastic!
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Norway28701 Posts
It does seem a lot less deadly this time around though, and I say that knowing deaths lag behind by a couple weeks. I guess this has a lot to do with improved treatment? Could be mutations too?
In Norway the total cases in mid June (at this point, we had essentially beaten down the first wave and saw a low double digit number of new daily cases) was 8.5k. Now, with the increase we've seen the past months, the total cases number is up to 17000, so twice what we saw in mid June.
The death count however was like, 245. Now it is at 279 - a much smaller increase. (I do expect death counts to increase some the next 2-3 weeks, but we've had a reasonably consistent case load since august, a spike this week, but the death count has stayed low.
Continental Europe looks bad though..
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Lower deaths is probably a combination of better treatment, more testing (more mild cases identified and counted) and a younger demographic of people testing positive. The median age of new cases has dropped by 20~ years since the 1st wave in a lot of places. More important than # of cases is who makes up those cases. Florida, Texas, and California have blown past NY in total number of cases but they still have half as many deaths because in NY the Governor made nursing homes take covid-19 patients back in and it spread through like wildfire killing everyone in its path.
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On October 24 2020 20:02 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It does seem a lot less deadly this time around though, and I say that knowing deaths lag behind by a couple weeks. I guess this has a lot to do with improved treatment? Could be mutations too?
In Norway the total cases in mid June (at this point, we had essentially beaten down the first wave and saw a low double digit number of new daily cases) was 8.5k. Now, with the increase we've seen the past months, the total cases number is up to 17000, so twice what we saw in mid June.
The death count however was like, 245. Now it is at 279 - a much smaller increase. (I do expect death counts to increase some the next 2-3 weeks, but we've had a reasonably consistent case load since august, a spike this week, but the death count has stayed low.
Continental Europe looks bad though..
You can't compare case numbers in the spring when there was low testing, and the deaths.
Compare hospital admissions and ICU numbers with deaths, they should correlate more.
That's how we see we are still better off than in the spring, for now (as it should be due to all the measures), meaning our hospitals are still getting full, but a lot slower, which gives us time to try out measures to dampen the spread (they don't look to be working too well...)
On the subject of masks, nearly everyone has got a surgical one, since their prices dropped. Still very bad for the environment but...
And I guess most of us reuse them a lot after a few days...
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Best advice seems to be to follow whatever guidelines and restrictions your government tells you to. The effectiveness of masks is for scientists to determine in the future when the topic is not as politically loaded. A week ago when Germany reported low numbers it was because the mask usage was so good. Today when they're spiking it's because people are bad at wearing masks. The confirmation bias is insane so just avoid the topic for a few years and do as you're told.
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Norway28701 Posts
On October 24 2020 21:11 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2020 20:02 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It does seem a lot less deadly this time around though, and I say that knowing deaths lag behind by a couple weeks. I guess this has a lot to do with improved treatment? Could be mutations too?
In Norway the total cases in mid June (at this point, we had essentially beaten down the first wave and saw a low double digit number of new daily cases) was 8.5k. Now, with the increase we've seen the past months, the total cases number is up to 17000, so twice what we saw in mid June.
The death count however was like, 245. Now it is at 279 - a much smaller increase. (I do expect death counts to increase some the next 2-3 weeks, but we've had a reasonably consistent case load since august, a spike this week, but the death count has stayed low.
Continental Europe looks bad though.. You can't compare case numbers in the spring when there was low testing, and the deaths. Compare hospital admissions and ICU numbers with deaths, they should correlate more. That's how we see we are still better off than in the spring, for now (as it should be due to all the measures), meaning our hospitals are still getting full, but a lot slower, which gives us time to try out measures to dampen the spread (they don't look to be working too well...) On the subject of masks, nearly everyone has got a surgical one, since their prices dropped. Still very bad for the environment but... And I guess most of us reuse them a lot after a few days...
Norway's test numbers were pretty high during spring already. It's a partial explanation, sure, but only partial; the 'real infection' rate is probably 50% of what it was during spring while the death rate is 10% of what it was. (and Norway was never remotely close to being at capacity, so overrun hospitals was never a reason. )
ICU and hospitalization rates correlate better with the death than the amount of infected does, sure, but when the amount of infected increases by way more than the ICU or hospitalization rate does, that also makes me think that the virus is either less harmful now or that the immediate treatment is much better. From what I'm reading, it's probably both.
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On October 24 2020 23:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2020 21:11 Nouar wrote:On October 24 2020 20:02 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It does seem a lot less deadly this time around though, and I say that knowing deaths lag behind by a couple weeks. I guess this has a lot to do with improved treatment? Could be mutations too?
In Norway the total cases in mid June (at this point, we had essentially beaten down the first wave and saw a low double digit number of new daily cases) was 8.5k. Now, with the increase we've seen the past months, the total cases number is up to 17000, so twice what we saw in mid June.
The death count however was like, 245. Now it is at 279 - a much smaller increase. (I do expect death counts to increase some the next 2-3 weeks, but we've had a reasonably consistent case load since august, a spike this week, but the death count has stayed low.
Continental Europe looks bad though.. You can't compare case numbers in the spring when there was low testing, and the deaths. Compare hospital admissions and ICU numbers with deaths, they should correlate more. That's how we see we are still better off than in the spring, for now (as it should be due to all the measures), meaning our hospitals are still getting full, but a lot slower, which gives us time to try out measures to dampen the spread (they don't look to be working too well...) On the subject of masks, nearly everyone has got a surgical one, since their prices dropped. Still very bad for the environment but... And I guess most of us reuse them a lot after a few days... Norway's test numbers were pretty high during spring already. It's a partial explanation, sure, but only partial; the 'real infection' rate is probably 50% of what it was during spring while the death rate is 10% of what it was. (and Norway was never remotely close to being at capacity, so overrun hospitals was never a reason. ) ICU and hospitalization rates correlate better with the death than the amount of infected does, sure, but when the amount of infected increases by way more than the ICU or hospitalization rate does, that also makes me think that the virus is either less harmful now or that the immediate treatment is much better. From what I'm reading, it's probably both.
Different average age of infected is a big part too.
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On October 24 2020 19:56 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:On October 23 2020 05:30 Slydie wrote:On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Explain how Spain got into this mess, then. I promise, you will have a very hard finding if they had any effect at all. The problem is that going universal introduces masks in a lot of situations where the virus never spread in the first place. The Norwegian experts are afraid imposing masks would make people be more relaxed about distancing and use them wrong, and bother have certainly been the case in Spain. The outcome of an entire nation is much more complex than whether they tell people to wear masks or not. It's quite simple to see how wearing a mask (or simply covering a sneeze or cough) reduces the spread of infectious particles. As to how people react to policies, that's more cultural. Vietnam is an example of a much poorer nation outperforming pretty much the entire western world and masks were certainly part of that. Vietnam May Have the Most Effective Response to Covid-19More from the Health section of UN news: “Despite a new wave which began on 25 July which Viet Nam is now also in the process of bringing under effective control, it is globally recognized that Viet Nam demonstrated one of the world’s most successful responses to the COVID-19 pandemic between January and April 16. After that date, no cases of local transmission were recorded for 99 consecutive days.
There were less than 400 cases of infection across the country during that period, most of them imported, and zero deaths, a remarkable accomplishment considering the country’s population of 96 million people and the fact that it shares a 1,450 km land border with China. They also never had a nationwide lockdown. Turns out having a functional and trustworthy government is very helpful. While there was never a nationwide lockdown, some restrictive physical distancing measures were implemented throughout the country. On 1 April 2020, the Prime Minister issued a nationwide two week physical distancing directive, which was extended by a week in major cities and hotspots: people were advised to stay at home, non-essential businesses were requested to close, and public transportation was limited.
Such measures were so successful that, by early May, following two weeks without a locally confirmed case, schools and businesses resumed their operations and people could return to regular routines. Green One UN House, the home of most UN agencies in Viet Nam, remained open throughout this period, with the Resident Coordinator, WHO Representative and approximately 200 UN staff and consultants physically in the office throughout this period, to provide vital support to the Government and people of Viet Nam.
Notably, the Vietnamese public had been exceptionally compliant with government directives and advice, partly as a result of trust built up thanks to real time, transparent communication from the Ministry of Health, supported by the WHO and other UN agencies. news.un.orgOn October 23 2020 05:49 LegalLord wrote:On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Of course, that doesn't preclude the fact that physical distancing is by far more important than masks in stopping the spread. Of course. People love to point out how masks "obviously" are the reason why Asian countries are dealing so well with the virus. However, there are no studies out there which support that claim. As every country has a different culture and does a wide range of measures, it is far to simplistic to single out masks as the key. I think Spain has showed that near universal use of masks can do next to nothing for stopping this virus in the west. It is quite logical. First of all, a virus is so small it can easily go through and around a face mask, so they offer nothing by false sense of security. Furthermore, the most "shocking" examples usually include sneezing someone directly in the face or out in the air indoors. Sure, in that case a mask is very effective, but how often does that really happen? In the end, correct use is virtually impossible to achieve. Denmark is jumping on the mask train now, even though some experts know perfectly well it is unlikely to make any difference. In Europe, I am curious about which measures work the best, closing bars early, limiting social gatherings and travel restrictions seem to be the general name of the game. If there is a clear way around another lockdown to not overload the healthcare system it is fantastic!
Doesn't the virus travel in liquid droplets rather than just float around in the air? It doesn't sound right that "the virus is so small that it can just go through the mask". Unless virus sizes differ very drastically then I don't see why covid would be an exception to masks being helpful. Given that a single infected person can possibly infect many and cause exponential growth, it makes sense to use masks even if they prevent transmission only some of the time.
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It can penetrate through anything but the n95 masks. This has to do with the size of respiratory particles rather than COVID itself : they're extremely small, and only a surgical level mask has holes too small for it to pass through.
That's why people said it was more to stop the spread than to stop you getting them : if an infected person coughs directly on you and you're wearing anything but an n95 you have a fairly high chance to get it. Any sort of face covering will lower the odds of you getting it somewhat, but it's not clear how much.
However, even a bandana will keep that infected person's cough from traveling nearly as far, so it lowers the social distancing requirements (which people have noticeably been shit at following).
That said not all masks are equal. I read a study a couple months ago on this. The 3 ply paper surgical mask has the best overall effect after n95, but every face covering helps.
edit: Doing some more research, newer filtered masks are coming out for the general public that may do better better at preventing getting it (due to filters) but we don't have studies on them yet.
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On October 25 2020 01:42 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2020 23:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:On October 24 2020 21:11 Nouar wrote:On October 24 2020 20:02 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It does seem a lot less deadly this time around though, and I say that knowing deaths lag behind by a couple weeks. I guess this has a lot to do with improved treatment? Could be mutations too?
In Norway the total cases in mid June (at this point, we had essentially beaten down the first wave and saw a low double digit number of new daily cases) was 8.5k. Now, with the increase we've seen the past months, the total cases number is up to 17000, so twice what we saw in mid June.
The death count however was like, 245. Now it is at 279 - a much smaller increase. (I do expect death counts to increase some the next 2-3 weeks, but we've had a reasonably consistent case load since august, a spike this week, but the death count has stayed low.
Continental Europe looks bad though.. You can't compare case numbers in the spring when there was low testing, and the deaths. Compare hospital admissions and ICU numbers with deaths, they should correlate more. That's how we see we are still better off than in the spring, for now (as it should be due to all the measures), meaning our hospitals are still getting full, but a lot slower, which gives us time to try out measures to dampen the spread (they don't look to be working too well...) On the subject of masks, nearly everyone has got a surgical one, since their prices dropped. Still very bad for the environment but... And I guess most of us reuse them a lot after a few days... Norway's test numbers were pretty high during spring already. It's a partial explanation, sure, but only partial; the 'real infection' rate is probably 50% of what it was during spring while the death rate is 10% of what it was. (and Norway was never remotely close to being at capacity, so overrun hospitals was never a reason. ) ICU and hospitalization rates correlate better with the death than the amount of infected does, sure, but when the amount of infected increases by way more than the ICU or hospitalization rate does, that also makes me think that the virus is either less harmful now or that the immediate treatment is much better. From what I'm reading, it's probably both. Different average age of infected is a big part too.
By far the biggest part. It kills 1 in 1000 of some demographics or 1 in 10 of other demographics. It's a factor of 100 which is a huge difference.
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On October 25 2020 03:44 JimmiC wrote:
The biggest problem with masks is that there is so many people who don't believe they work or are unwilling to wear them. So spread is still fairly high and then people who already have decided masks are not good point to the spread (that people like them have a huge part in creating) as proof that they don't work. Science and logic be damned.
Most people I see wear reusable masks/covers, without properly disinfecting them between uses. One moment they are surfing the crowd collecting viral particles, next it's around their neck. Rarely do they sanitize their hands after touching the mask. How could it possibly work?
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On October 25 2020 07:21 food wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2020 03:44 JimmiC wrote:
The biggest problem with masks is that there is so many people who don't believe they work or are unwilling to wear them. So spread is still fairly high and then people who already have decided masks are not good point to the spread (that people like them have a huge part in creating) as proof that they don't work. Science and logic be damned. Most people I see wear reusable masks/covers, without properly disinfecting them between uses. One moment they are surfing the crowd collecting viral particles, next it's around their neck. Rarely do they sanitize their hands after touching the mask. How could it possibly work?
The point is that they are less likely to infect others while their mask is on, not that it's supposed to protect the wearer. The more people that wear them, the less danger for everyone.
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On October 25 2020 07:46 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2020 07:21 food wrote:On October 25 2020 03:44 JimmiC wrote:
The biggest problem with masks is that there is so many people who don't believe they work or are unwilling to wear them. So spread is still fairly high and then people who already have decided masks are not good point to the spread (that people like them have a huge part in creating) as proof that they don't work. Science and logic be damned. Most people I see wear reusable masks/covers, without properly disinfecting them between uses. One moment they are surfing the crowd collecting viral particles, next it's around their neck. Rarely do they sanitize their hands after touching the mask. How could it possibly work? Most things work better when you use them properly. When people don't that is not the fault of the thing. Also these are really easy so those who are using them improperly are at fault. And as Said at least they are still helping to protect others.
I'm just pointing out why masking doesn't always work as intended, and yes, they still help to contain the spread, albeit not as much as they would if used properly.
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On October 25 2020 10:31 food wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2020 07:46 JimmiC wrote:On October 25 2020 07:21 food wrote:On October 25 2020 03:44 JimmiC wrote:
The biggest problem with masks is that there is so many people who don't believe they work or are unwilling to wear them. So spread is still fairly high and then people who already have decided masks are not good point to the spread (that people like them have a huge part in creating) as proof that they don't work. Science and logic be damned. Most people I see wear reusable masks/covers, without properly disinfecting them between uses. One moment they are surfing the crowd collecting viral particles, next it's around their neck. Rarely do they sanitize their hands after touching the mask. How could it possibly work? Most things work better when you use them properly. When people don't that is not the fault of the thing. Also these are really easy so those who are using them improperly are at fault. And as Said at least they are still helping to protect others. I'm just pointing out why masking doesn't always work as intended, and yes, they still help to contain the spread, albeit not as much as they would if used properly.
I feel exactly the same way as you - I think.
What helped me coming to terms with that was the Swiss cheese model: Every barrier against Covid we can sensibly use has holes within it. Them being social distancing (not always possible), hygiene (not the most common vector), wear masks (don't protect yourself and if so are extremely difficult to use, no touching) and clean surfaces (in public I assume like trams and trains). lastly I would add what they also say in Scotland, to reduce contacts and avoid crowded places.
Concluding, stuff has its use, although it's not the only solution.
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EPT
