|
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
What's the over/under on more lockdowns? At this point I'm seeing big pushes to wear more masks, everywhere all the time, but no rush to lock down in the face of alarming data. If the coronavirus is really as seasonal as we suspect (despite being remarkably resilient in the summer), it's very likely to end up forcing the issue.
Well, Spain introduced near universal masks already in July, and it certainly did not save them for having the worst 2nd wave in Europe, and just surpassed a million confirmed cases. Masks are very powerful as political and moral symbols, but their actual usefulness in fighting the pandemic is highly questionable.
I think it is funny how Norwegian media keep repeating how immoral US politicians are for being sceptical of mask use while they barely recommend them themselves. Agreeing with Trump on something just does not fit the usual narrative.
Also, every country I know of has become a lot better at protecting people at risk, so the death and hospital numbers are not as high as back in the spring.
|
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection.
|
On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection.
Explain how Spain got into this mess, then. I promise, you will have a very hard finding if they had any effect at all.
Before making a decision, the Norwegian health institute did a great job at gathering information from all the studies in the field of face masks. The conclusion: it is not worth bothering with for the general public, except from in very specific situations in areas with very high numbers of new cases, and certainly not "one of the most effective ways of fighting respiratory infections" like you claim. Studies done in hospitals and in lab conditions are just not relevant, and measuring the effect in community settings is extremely difficult.
The problem is that going universal introduces masks in a lot of situations where the virus never spread in the first place. The Norwegian experts are afraid imposing masks would make people be more relaxed about distancing and use them wrong, and bother have certainly been the case in Spain.
|
On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection.
Of course, that doesn't preclude the fact that physical distancing is by far more important than masks in stopping the spread.
|
On October 23 2020 05:30 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Explain how Spain got into this mess, then. I promise, you will have a very hard finding if they had any effect at all. The problem is that going universal introduces masks in a lot of situations where the virus never spread in the first place. The Norwegian experts are afraid imposing masks would make people be more relaxed about distancing and use them wrong, and bother have certainly been the case in Spain.
The outcome of an entire nation is much more complex than whether they tell people to wear masks or not. It's quite simple to see how wearing a mask (or simply covering a sneeze or cough) reduces the spread of infectious particles.
As to how people react to policies, that's more cultural. Vietnam is an example of a much poorer nation outperforming pretty much the entire western world and masks were certainly part of that.
Vietnam May Have the Most Effective Response to Covid-19
More from the Health section of UN news:
“Despite a new wave which began on 25 July which Viet Nam is now also in the process of bringing under effective control, it is globally recognized that Viet Nam demonstrated one of the world’s most successful responses to the COVID-19 pandemic between January and April 16. After that date, no cases of local transmission were recorded for 99 consecutive days.
There were less than 400 cases of infection across the country during that period, most of them imported, and zero deaths, a remarkable accomplishment considering the country’s population of 96 million people and the fact that it shares a 1,450 km land border with China.
They also never had a nationwide lockdown. Turns out having a functional and trustworthy government is very helpful.
While there was never a nationwide lockdown, some restrictive physical distancing measures were implemented throughout the country. On 1 April 2020, the Prime Minister issued a nationwide two week physical distancing directive, which was extended by a week in major cities and hotspots: people were advised to stay at home, non-essential businesses were requested to close, and public transportation was limited.
Such measures were so successful that, by early May, following two weeks without a locally confirmed case, schools and businesses resumed their operations and people could return to regular routines. Green One UN House, the home of most UN agencies in Viet Nam, remained open throughout this period, with the Resident Coordinator, WHO Representative and approximately 200 UN staff and consultants physically in the office throughout this period, to provide vital support to the Government and people of Viet Nam.
Notably, the Vietnamese public had been exceptionally compliant with government directives and advice, partly as a result of trust built up thanks to real time, transparent communication from the Ministry of Health, supported by the WHO and other UN agencies.
news.un.org
On October 23 2020 05:49 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 05:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides physical distancing, masks are one of the most effective measures for preventing the spread of respiratory infection. Of course, that doesn't preclude the fact that physical distancing is by far more important than masks in stopping the spread.
Of course.
|
|
|
I didn't realize how bad it's gotten in Europe. Holyshit.
France has 41,622 cases reported today.
That's equivalent on a per capita basis to USA having 205k daily cases.
It's pretty goddamn far out of control.
|
On October 23 2020 06:31 Lmui wrote:
I didn't realize how bad it's gotten in Europe. Holyshit.
France has 41,622 cases reported today.
That's equivalent on a per capita basis to USA having 205k daily cases.
It's pretty goddamn far out of control.
Indeed; it's like we entered autumn and the coronavirus switch just turned on. East Europe is in on this disastrous trend this time as well, with nations like Poland, Romania, and the Ukraine reporting worst-to-date infection and death results.
|
On October 23 2020 06:31 Lmui wrote:
I didn't realize how bad it's gotten in Europe. Holyshit.
France has 41,622 cases reported today.
That's equivalent on a per capita basis to USA having 205k daily cases.
It's pretty goddamn far out of control.
Yup. And that's with compulsory masks basically everywhere, subway, etc... restriction in familial gatherings, concerts etc etc... Autumn is a scary season for viruses...
We don't really know where we're going. ICU's are slowly filling, we shall see what happens in 2/3 weeks, time for the curfew to have a (slight) effect. Might have to reconfine again if hospitals are packed...
The scariest things is that there was energy in april. Staff is completely worn out and tried to catch up on regular surgeries during the summer, so they didn't rest. Could be ugly, but just imagine what it would be with no restrictions in crowded old-world cities...
Though we are also testing record amount of people, so the 40k figure must be put in perspective. The really scary thing is that even with increased testing, the positivity ratio is STILL going up country-wide. More than 14% on a 7day rolling average now...
Elderly infection rates tripled in a few weeks, etc...
|
This is all so disheartening to hear.  I suppose a vaccine is our only hope.
|
And if I read correctly the numbers more than 1 in every 1000 Belgians got Covid in the last 24 hours. Same for Luxemburg. Something is going terribly wrong in Europe.
|
On October 23 2020 07:06 Starlightsun wrote:This is all so disheartening to hear. I suppose a vaccine is our only hope.
There won't be a vaccine fast enough to stop the second wave starting now and extending through about April. Maybe a vaccine will be in time to prevent wave three.
All in all we're probably in for another full year of hurt.
|
On October 23 2020 06:36 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 06:31 Lmui wrote:
I didn't realize how bad it's gotten in Europe. Holyshit.
France has 41,622 cases reported today.
That's equivalent on a per capita basis to USA having 205k daily cases.
It's pretty goddamn far out of control. Indeed; it's like we entered autumn and the coronavirus switch just turned on. East Europe is in on this disastrous trend this time as well, with nations like Poland, Romania, and the Ukraine reporting worst-to-date infection and death results.
I remember making this frustrating post 4 months ago and virtually nothing changed (behavior-wise) since then:
On June 28 2020 02:00 Dan HH wrote:
As soon as the state of emergency was lifted here in mid May everyone pretended the pandemic was over and now our daily confirmed cases are back to the peak from mid April. But unlike in April, now no one is wearing masks except when shopping where it's mandatory, everyone's shaking hands and going to social gatherings. The future is bleak, we have learned nothing.
In April at ~300 cases per day pretty much every single person anywhere in public was wearing a mask, no one was shaking hands. Now we're at almost 5000 cases per day, masks only in shops and public transport where it's mandatory, everyone shaking hands.
Most of the people that back in April were saying Covid is not a big deal or bullshit are no longer saying it. The reason behavior doesn't reflect the stats is simply.. inertia. No one wants to be the first guy at his workplace/in his circle that no longer shakes hands (again), that's the level we're playing at as a species.
|
My state is running commercials to keep up on preventative measures. Having started in the top 10 worst impacted and been out of the top 20 for a good amount of time we're seeing cases increase.
Comparatively, we're still in the bottom half of most impacted states but that's mostly because the top half is so bad.
Opening restaurants for dine-in and social gatherings (birthdays, weddings, etc) are the places I see people disregard distancing, group numbers, and masking the most. Other public places have been pretty on top of it other than dealing with people that don't cover their noses.
I expect it to get worse with the typical flu season but my state will probably stay mostly where it is relative to other states. Ideally in the top 10 least cases per million in the country.
|
On October 23 2020 07:17 arbiter_md wrote:
And if I read correctly the numbers more than 1 in every 1000 Belgians got Covid in the last 24 hours. Same for Luxemburg. Something is going terribly wrong in Europe.
Nothing different from summer actually. People got tired of restrictions and became careless. That's what's happening combined with colder weather. I still see a few people without masks in malls. Now masks are mandatory in public but still too few wear them. Clubs are open (wtf?).
On a different note, since COVID-19 is an RNA virus which means that it mutates, will we have a viable vaccine in that case? I know there are promising ones but what's the plan if the virus mutated significantly by the time a vaccine is out?
|
On October 24 2020 06:12 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2020 07:17 arbiter_md wrote:
And if I read correctly the numbers more than 1 in every 1000 Belgians got Covid in the last 24 hours. Same for Luxemburg. Something is going terribly wrong in Europe. Nothing different from summer actually. People got tired of restrictions and became careless. That's what's happening combined with colder weather. I still see a few people without masks in malls. Now masks are mandatory in public but still too few wear them. Clubs are open (wtf?). On a different note, since COVID-19 is an RNA virus which means that it mutates, will we have a viable vaccine in that case? I know there are promising ones but what's the plan if the virus mutated significantly by the time a vaccine is out?
It was around August that it felt like people stopped taking things seriously. Many people still wore masks, but only under some conditions, and social distancing has long been an afterthought. Add that to the school-driven spread, and it took little more than colder weather to cause a descent into disaster. Wasn't immediate, but once it kicked off it became quite bad indeed.
The virus is absolutely going to mutate over time, as it already has done (apparently the European strain out of Italy had significant material differences from the China strain), but a vaccine will still have at least partial effectiveness in reducing the impact and spread of the disease. How much is up for debate - there is even precedent for it making things worse - but chances are a widespread vaccine will blunt the impact of the disease going forward. We might be able to go back to normal by about a year from now.
|
One of my Mom's neighbors caught covid and now fucking Trump is holding a rally where she lives. She's old and vulnerable this really sucks.
|
There's an elderly home in my village with 30 cases 2 days ago and 60 cases yesterday. One person died. I'm waiting for the new numbers but it could be around 100 infected on 1300 inhabitants in the village. A bit afraid of being locked down atm.
|
|
|
I'd love some analysis as far as why some of these measures failed in Europe. Is it poor compliance? Partying and spreading to family members? Do people gather a lot in general?
There was a really nice study published in JAMA before this all started, concluding that 3-ply surgical masks offer sufficient protection against viral particles. I really think wearing rags and bandanas instead of surgical masks makes a world of difference.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
