EPTUser was warned for this post
Coronavirus and You - Page 267
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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REDBLUEGREEN
Germany1904 Posts
User was warned for this post | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2695 Posts
Sounds like the source is probably his posterior region that has suddenly grown vocal cords. | ||
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Slydie
1929 Posts
I have had the unhealthy hobby of following Spanish Covid numbers for a long time now, and the 2nd wave seems to keep going, maybe only slightly declining. There are still days with over 10k new cases, but the deaths are fortunately lower now. I think it is worth noting that Spain is one of very few countries which demand no quarantines upon entering afaik, you only need to fill out a form. Facemasks have been omnipresent since the very start of the 2nd wave, though. Anyone being a believer in their massive effectiveness should check it out. Other measures and social culture is just WAY more important, and IMO the politicians blew it when they invested so much political and moral capital into their use, at the cost of things which might actually have worked. Not seeing anyone's face in the street just makes life worse, but they all all in now, and are very unlikely to make a u-turn. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On October 18 2020 02:59 Slydie wrote: About Sweden, I think their over all strategy was very good, but unlike Norway, Finland and Denmark, they failed to protect the elderly during the initial outbreak. This was not only related to not having a lockdown, a privatized care sector with personal with lower education, other structures of responsibility etc. were also important. Other countries like Spain which DID lock down had similar problems. I have had the unhealthy hobby of following Spanish Covid numbers for a long time now, and the 2nd wave seems to keep going, maybe only slightly declining. There are still days with over 10k new cases, but the deaths are fortunately lower now. I think it is worth noting that Spain is one of very few countries which demand no quarantines upon entering afaik, you only need to fill out a form. Facemasks have been omnipresent since the very start of the 2nd wave, though. Anyone being a believer in their massive effectiveness should check it out. Other measures and social culture is just WAY more important, and IMO the politicians blew it when they invested so much political and moral capital into their use, at the cost of things which might actually have worked. Not seeing anyone's face in the street just makes life worse, but they all all in now, and are very unlikely to make a u-turn. What other measures in particular would have helped within the Spanish context in your view (not one I’m too familiar with). Masks certainly aren’t a panacea, least from what I understand. Given they’re not really a part of private life, although as someone who’s worked throughout in public and indoors I feel there’s got to be some benefit there. | ||
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REDBLUEGREEN
Germany1904 Posts
Mainly this I think. I read it many months ago, as the Huanan Seafood Market theory has been abandoned for a very long time even by the Chinese CDC and the WHO. https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 What is fact about my post: Market theory is no longer a thing; the Yunnan origin of RaTG13 and that it is the closest relative to SARS-CoV-2; that RaTG13 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology; that the market is close to the lab; that the first cases were unconnected to the market; that lab leaks happen more often that you would hope for What is reasonable assumption: that GOF research was conducted on RaTG13 in the WIV; that it accidently leaked from the lab in November | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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[Phantom]
Mexico2170 Posts
However I also think where it came from it's completely irrelevant and the accusations are made by people with a political agenda. A virus like this could have come from a lab, but everything points to it to not being "engenieer" so even if it came from a lab it mutated naturally, which means it could have evolved in nature as well. The virus is here. We needed to be prepared. We need to take action now. Pointing blame is useless for everyone except politicians that could gain something from it. | ||
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REDBLUEGREEN
Germany1904 Posts
I am simple interested in cytology and genetics and interested in the origin out of intellectual curiosity and wrote because the wet markets were brought up, even though they have been discarded for months. And look what happened I get accused as a conspiracy theorist, probably by a person that never read a cytology, genetics or medicine paper in their life and the last time they opened even a general biology textbook was in high school. Another person comes asking how this could be politicized. Why would anyone want to deal with this? Nothing to gain. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On October 18 2020 04:07 REDBLUEGREEN wrote: Mainly this I think. I read it many months ago, as the Huanan Seafood Market theory has been abandoned for a very long time even by the Chinese CDC and the WHO. https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 What is fact about my post: Market theory is no longer a thing; the Yunnan origin of RaTG13 and that it is the closest relative to SARS-CoV-2; that RaTG13 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology; that the market is close to the lab; that the first cases were unconnected to the market; that lab leaks happen more often that you would hope for What is reasonable assumption: that GOF research was conducted on RaTG13 in the WIV; that it accidently leaked from the lab in November China has a long history of trying to cover up the impact of their medieval practices. If any of this information was provided by China and not directly backed by western research, of say it should be considered fiction. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28731 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On October 18 2020 08:08 Liquid`Drone wrote: wouldn't the wet markets be their coverup of this story? :p at least to me, randomly mutated from irresponsible human-animal interaction rings a lot better than was created in a lab and accidentally escaped from the lab. (not commenting on the veracity of anything. ) Chinese nationals pride themselves in ethnic superiority. They are hyper focused on global image and, similar to North Korea, are totally committed to appearing as modern and dignified as possible. Wet markets make that difficult. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18173 Posts
On October 18 2020 04:07 REDBLUEGREEN wrote: Mainly this I think. I read it many months ago, as the Huanan Seafood Market theory has been abandoned for a very long time even by the Chinese CDC and the WHO. https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 What is fact about my post: Market theory is no longer a thing; the Yunnan origin of RaTG13 and that it is the closest relative to SARS-CoV-2; that RaTG13 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology; that the market is close to the lab; that the first cases were unconnected to the market; that lab leaks happen more often that you would hope for What is reasonable assumption: that GOF research was conducted on RaTG13 in the WIV; that it accidently leaked from the lab in November I went down the rabbit hole and read through that medium post. It is a very long, but quite interesting read for a non-biologist like myself. I didn't understand and glossed over a lot of the more technical bits, but it's well enough written that I got the gist of it. However, I feel its valuable contribution is to contradict the almost knee-jerk Nature publication that it cannot possibly have been created in a lab, rather than to prove it was definitely created in a lab. The author himself seems to think that is his contribution too, as he states in the conclusion: Let me be clear: this does NOT prove that CoV2 was synthesized in the laboratory. Yes, as we have seen above, from a technical standpoint, it would not be difficult for a modern virologist to create such a strain. But there is no direct evidence that anyone did this, and strange coincidences cannot pass for circumstantial evidence. On balance, the current chances against this are still higher than for the natural origins of CoV2. Moreover, even if CoV2 was indeed an unfortunate lab leak, the scientists themselves are not to blame, as they were working within the established international laws and guidelines on such research. Now, those who might be trying to cover up that leak, that’s a different story. The opposite point is worth repeating too: the inverse hypothesis about the exclusively natural origin of the virus does not yet have strong evidence either. Until intermediate ancestors between RaTG13, pangolin-2019 and CoV2 are found, in whom we could trace the mosaic recombination that we observe in CoV2, the question of its origins remains open. In closing, there is no one better to quote on this matter than Ralph Baric himself: What is the reservoir species of SARS-CoV-2? They have not identified the actual reservoir species. Reports show that pangolins are potentially the intermediate host, but pangolin viruses are 88–98% identical to SARS-CoV-2. In comparison, civet and racoon dog strains of SARS coronaviruses were 99.8% identical to SARS-CoV from 2003. In other words, we are talking about a handful of mutations between civet strains, racoon dog strains and human strains in 2003. Pangolins [strains of CoV2] have over 3000 nucleotide changes, no way they are the reservoir species. Absolutely no chance. Clearly the jury is still out, if we believe this paper, which we must note, is not peer-reviewed and I read as a non-biologist. I have tagged some of the research papers cited for further reading, and will also read the Nature paper, and particularly those bits this author takes issue with. I do remember that the Nature paper was rather conclusive about it fairly obviously not being designed as a bio-weapon. This blog appears to agree with that, so the question is mainly whether the virus evolved in nature (could have) or was designed in research aimed at studying how coronaviruses work and in pharmaceutical design (could have). I don't disagree with the conclusion that if lab leaks are a problem (even occasional), then the very idea of designing diseases to be more virulent, and designing nasty animal viruses to be better at surviving in human tissue, even with the benevolent purpose of understanding them better and developing drugs against them, is massively risky. I'm not saying it should be outright forbidden, but our current approach to this seems extremely nonchalant. Regardless of whether SARS-Cov2 was leaked from a lab or occurred naturally. By the sounds of what the researchers concocted themselves, considerably worse viruses were designed in these labs, and the biosafety protocols seem insufficient, especially in China. E: I should add that despite the fairly neutral conclusion, the author appeared to *want* to find evidence that the virus was produced in the lab. One particular rabbit hole he went down made this particularly clear: when he was being suspicious about the provenence of the RaTG13 Coronavirus. He hammered on about it being collected in 2013, but not mentioned until January, despite it being different. I don't really see that issue: it only became relevant in January because of its similarity to SARS-Cov2. Up until late 2019, it wasn't interesting, because people were looking for bat viruses similar to SARS or MERS, not some new disease that didn't exist yet. | ||
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Slydie
1929 Posts
On October 18 2020 03:44 WombaT wrote: What other measures in particular would have helped within the Spanish context in your view (not one I’m too familiar with). Masks certainly aren’t a panacea, least from what I understand. Given they’re not really a part of private life, although as someone who’s worked throughout in public and indoors I feel there’s got to be some benefit there. The main problem is that they opened up domestic travel too early, limiting that was the most maybe the most effective thing they did in to stop the 1st wave in Spain. Furthermore, they could have tried to force people to see fewer different people in their social life, hold smaller family gatherings, keep more distance during conversations and be quicker to limit opening hours of bars and restaurants, impose quarenteenes for travelers and loads of other measures. Instead, the whole discussion derailed into the moral superiority and obligation of wearing face masks in as many situations as possible, many of which the virus was barely spreading in the first place. You have to choose your battles, and it is obvious that in real life, Spain failed with their approach. | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4553 Posts
This causes outrage because if we look at the graphs re-opening restaurants and pubs in June had very little effect while re-opening the borders for travellers some weeks later in July did have a noticeable effect. Sucks for lots of restaurant owners. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22030 Posts
On October 19 2020 16:22 Laurens wrote: closing the borders back down doesn't do enough when the virus is already inside.Belgium doing pretty badly right now. All restaurants and pubs have been shut for a month in response. This causes outrage because if we look at the graphs re-opening restaurants and pubs in June had very little effect while re-opening the borders for travellers some weeks later in July did have a noticeable effect. Sucks for lots of restaurant owners. | ||
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arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
closing the borders back down doesn't do enough when the virus is already inside. I think it does. Everybody is talking how people should limit to only essential travel. But many people have a very liberal definition of essential. Closing the borders makes this part clear. Imagine the borders being closed during the summer vacation. We would probably have delayed the second wave in Europe by at least a month. But all those average Joe had to go abroad, like they do every year. Even though there's a touristic attraction around the corner of their house which they never visited. | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On October 18 2020 07:33 REDBLUEGREEN wrote: I think most virologists don't want to be involved in this politicized clusterfuck. They have nothing to gain and a lot to lose. It's one thing if some randos on a forum think I am a conspiracy theorists, I have no skin in the game I don't give a fuck. It's an entirely different thing to accuse China as an established virologist without a mountain of irrefutable evidence. Besides we cannot afford to have China totally uncooperative right now, so even if we 100% knew it came from the lab it would be unproductive to press China now. I am simple interested in cytology and genetics and interested in the origin out of intellectual curiosity and wrote because the wet markets were brought up, even though they have been discarded for months. And look what happened I get accused as a conspiracy theorist, probably by a person that never read a cytology, genetics or medicine paper in their life and the last time they opened even a general biology textbook was in high school. Another person comes asking how this could be politicized. Why would anyone want to deal with this? Nothing to gain. You're right, i haven't taken a close look in biology in years, nevermind the past couples of years when i worked to make a virtual workspace to display/modify molecules for any scientists. I've quite literally posted possibly the first real 3d rendering of the covid a couple of months ago. You get called a conspiracy theorist when you post conspiracy theories, shocker! | ||
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